Cashen Keeler

Cashen Keeler requested a directional outlook for 2025 market growth in Europe, North America, and Brazil, and asked how Ardagh expects its own performance to compare to the market.

Answer

CEO Oliver Graham projected 2025 market growth in the 2-3% range for Europe and low-single-digits for North America, expecting AMP to perform in line with the market in both regions. For Brazil, he forecasted a conservative mid-single-digit market growth and suggested AMP's performance might be slightly more cautious, depending on the commercial strategies of its major brewer customers.

Cashen Keeler asked about the expected cadence of earnings and organic growth for fiscal 2025, the drivers of that growth (demand vs. pricing), the integration plan and costs for the Gravotech acquisition, and the company's strategy for share buybacks and capital deployment.

Answer

President and CEO Russell Shaller explained that while the macro outlook is for slow GDP growth, Brady's growth will come from expanding wallet share with existing customers and new product launches. For Gravotech, he stated it's a successful company not requiring a major fix-up, with integration focused on back-office systems and leveraging Brady's R&D. He confirmed the $13 million EBITDA forecast excludes minor integration costs. Regarding capital, Shaller reiterated a disciplined approach to the $100 million buyback authorization, prioritizing organic reinvestment in R&D and potential M&A over buybacks unless the stock is significantly undervalued.

Asked about the future CapEx profile post-Pine Bluff sale, capital deployment priorities, the long-term trend for SG&A, and the relationship between the revised EBITDA guidance and EPS.

Answer

The Pine Bluff sale will reduce annual CapEx by $35-40 million, allowing for a shift in capital deployment towards growth. Of the new $15 million in cost actions, about $10 million is in SG&A from eliminating ~80 corporate positions, with most of that savings expected to carry into next year. EPS is expected to track EBITDA, with an additional benefit from $14 million in annualized interest expense savings.