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    Charlie Lederer

    Research Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

    Charlie Lederer is an Analyst at BMO Capital Markets, specializing in coverage of the financials sector with a particular focus on insurance companies such as Assurant, The Baldwin Insurance Group, AXIS Capital Holdings, Arch Capital Group, Markel Group, Cincinnati Financial, American Financial Group, and RenaissanceRe Holdings. Over his career at BMO, he has issued numerous ratings, achieving a 44.44% success rate and an average return of approximately -4%, ranking him among the lower half of Wall Street analysts based on recent analytics platforms. Lederer began his analyst career after serving as a Vice President at Citigroup Global Markets and has accumulated seven years of professional experience in the industry. A certified public accountant (CPA), he is FINRA-registered and holds a state securities license with no reported disclosures.

    Charlie Lederer's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer of BMO Capital Markets inquired about Aspen's growth outlook for the second half of the year, the potential impact on underlying loss ratios from the business mix, and whether the company is actively pursuing opportunities in transactional liability and D&O.

    Answer

    Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, explained that the market is transitioning, with longer-tail lines expected to outgrow property lines, which will influence the loss ratio. He confirmed Aspen is 'ready to lean in' to transactional liability and D&O as pricing conditions show signs of bottoming and improving, respectively. He also clarified that a recent uptick in the paid-to-incurred ratio was likely due to accelerated payments for California wildfire claims.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer from BMO Capital Markets inquired about Aspen's growth outlook and underlying loss ratio trends for the second half of the year, given the dynamic pricing environment. He also asked about the company's stance on leaning into transactional liability and D&O markets and questioned the recent increase in the paid-to-incurred ratio.

    Answer

    Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, explained that while the market is transitioning, Aspen expects longer-tail lines to outgrow property lines, which will influence the loss ratio mix. He confirmed Aspen is 'ready to lean in' to transactional liability and D&O as pricing conditions improve. He also attributed the higher paid-to-incurred ratio to accelerated payments on California wildfire claims.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer of BMO Capital Markets inquired about Aspen's growth outlook for the second half of the year, the potential trajectory of underlying loss ratios, and the company's strategy regarding opportunities in transactional liability and D&O. He also asked for clarification on the recent increase in the paid-to-incurred loss ratio.

    Answer

    Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda Limited, explained that Aspen is managing through various product 'mini cycles' and expects longer-tail lines to outgrow property lines, without a dramatic shift in the overall portfolio mix. He confirmed Aspen is 'ready to lean in' to transactional liability and D&O as market conditions improve. He also attributed the higher paid-to-incurred ratio to accelerated payments on California wildfire claims, as required by law.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS (AHL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer of BMO Capital Markets inquired about Aspen's growth outlook for the latter half of the year, the trajectory of underlying loss ratios given the dynamic market, the company's stance on opportunities in transactional liability and D&O, and the reason for the recent increase in the paid-to-incurred ratio.

    Answer

    Christian Dunleavy, Group President & CEO of Aspen Bermuda, explained that he expects longer-tail lines to outgrow property lines, which will influence the loss ratio mix. He confirmed Aspen is 'ready to lean in' to D&O as pricing stabilizes and will capitalize on the expected hardening in the transactional liability market. He also attributed the higher paid-to-incurred ratio to accelerated payments on California wildfire claims as required by law.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer of BMO Capital Markets inquired about the outlook for property rate and exposure in 2026 and asked for more detail on the pressures affecting the E&S homeowners book, including its drivers and geographic concentration.

    Answer

    CEO Trevor Baldwin stated that he expects some degree of stabilization in the property market in 2026, as pricing cycles tend to be short. He clarified that the pressure on the E&S home book is entirely driven by increased market competition and aggressive pricing from new entrants, not by reinsurance or capacity issues. This has led to a disciplined underwriting approach that is impacting new business volume in coastal E&S markets like Florida, Texas, and California.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to Baldwin Insurance Group (BWIN) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer from BMO Capital Markets inquired about the outlook for property rates in 2026 and asked for details on the pressures in the E&S homeowners book, including the role of reinsurance and capacity.

    Answer

    CEO Trevor Baldwin stated he expects some degree of stabilization in the property market in 2026. Regarding the E&S home pressure, he clarified it is entirely driven by market competition and new capacity, not reinsurance renewals. He emphasized that The Baldwin Group is maintaining underwriting discipline, which is impacting new business generation in that specific line but is the prudent course of action. The pressure is concentrated in typical E&S geographies like Florida, Texas, and California.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer from BMO Capital Markets requested the all-in renewal premium change (RPC) number and how it would look with a more typical Q3/Q4 business mix. He also asked if the back-half organic growth would be driven by base business acceleration or by supplemental and contingent commissions.

    Answer

    CEO J. Patrick Gallagher estimated the all-in RPC would be around 4%. CFO Douglas K. Howell added that the overall market is still seeing mid-single-digit increases due to strength in casualty, which is more heavily weighted in the second half. Mr. Howell also noted that he views base and supplemental commissions together, which are driving growth around 5%, and expects that to continue.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to Arthur J. Gallagher & (AJG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer of BMO Capital Markets requested the all-in renewal premium change (RPC) figure for the quarter and how it might look with a more typical Q3/Q4 business mix. He also asked if the back-half organic growth would be driven by base business acceleration or by supplemental and contingent commissions.

    Answer

    CEO J. Patrick Gallagher estimated the all-in RPC would be around 4%. CFO Douglas K. Howell elaborated that the overall market is still seeing mid-single-digit rate increases when casualty lines are factored in, a trend he expects to continue. He also noted that base and supplemental commissions combined are driving growth around 5% and expects that to continue.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to WILLIS TOWERS WATSON (WTW) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to WILLIS TOWERS WATSON (WTW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer from BMO Capital Markets asked for an analysis of Q2 free cash flow performance and the outlook for the rest of the year. He also inquired about the competitive landscape for insurance brokerage talent and WTW's response.

    Answer

    CFO Andrew Krasner detailed the first-half free cash flow headwinds, such as compensation and the absence of TRANZACT inflows, and outlined expected second-half tailwinds, reaffirming confidence in full-year margin expansion. CEO Carl Hess and President of Risk & Broking Lucy Clarke addressed talent, stating that competition is not new and that WTW's deliberate, strategic hiring approach, part of its long-term strategy, continues to be successful in attracting key talent.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS (AXS) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS (AXS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer from BMO Capital Markets asked whether pricing is currently ahead of loss cost trends in both the insurance and reinsurance segments, sought clarification on the paid loss and IBNR trends in the insurance segment, and questioned the drivers behind the recent moves in the insurance expense ratio.

    Answer

    President & CEO Vincent Tizzio confirmed that in liability and casualty, pricing is comfortably ahead of trend, and while property pricing has seen deterioration, the overall portfolio's premium adequacy remains excellent. Regarding paid losses, both Mr. Tizzio and CFO Peter Vogt attributed the quarterly increase to payments on some larger, older claims and recent wildfire claims, noting the metric can be noisy. Mr. Vogt clarified the expense ratio moves were due to prior-year restructuring charges affecting G&A comparisons and improved ceding commissions impacting the acquisition cost.

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    Charlie Lederer's questions to BROWN & BROWN (BRO) leadership

    Charlie Lederer's questions to BROWN & BROWN (BRO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Charlie Lederer, on for Andrew Anderson, asked about the performance of the lender-placed insurance business in Q1, specifically if there were any incremental headwinds or benefits, and about its seasonality.

    Answer

    Executive R. Watts clarified there were no headwinds to the lender-placed business year-over-year, but its growth rate has moderated from the prior year. He emphasized that growth comes from winning new accounts, not from an increase in the lender-placed ratio, which indicates continued economic health among homeowners. Watts also explained the business lacks traditional seasonality; instead, revenue bumps occur when onboarding large new accounts.

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