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    Charlie Muir-Sands • BNP Paribas Exane

    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) leadership

    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas sought to quantify the dollar value of the historical losses from the now-terminated box contracts and asked for clarification on the second-half volume assumptions and historical Q4 seasonality in North America.

    Answer

    CEO Tony Smurfit explained that on a $10 billion sales system, the box plants should generate $800 million to $1.2 billion in profit, but the system was loss-making last year, indicating a significant opportunity. EVP & Group CFO Ken Bowles clarified that the 'flat volumes' guidance for the second half is relative to the first half of the year, not year-over-year.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands asked for clarification on the assumptions underpinning Smurfit Westrock's full-year guidance, specifically regarding North American box volumes, European price hikes, and OCC costs. He also inquired about the potential impact of planned investments in 25 new converting machines on the company's 2026 capital expenditures.

    Answer

    CEO Tony Smurfit stated that it's too early to define 2026 CapEx but emphasized the company's flexibility and disciplined approach. He does not anticipate significant box volume improvement due to the 'value over volume' strategy. Regarding pricing, he confirmed the first hike is holding but the success of a second hike is uncertain due to volatile input costs. CFO Ken Bowles added that the primary change to the outlook is an incremental $100 million in Q2 downtime.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands of BNP Paribas Exane inquired about the full-year EBITDA guidance, asking if the implied Q4 decline was due to conservatism or specific factors like maintenance downtime. He also questioned if the CapEx return opportunity on legacy Westrock assets is superior due to low-hanging fruit.

    Answer

    CEO Tony Smurfit confirmed the Q4 forecast includes a $60 million negative impact from additional maintenance and commercial downtime not present in Q3, alongside some conservatism. Regarding CapEx, Smurfit stated that while the mid-to-high-teens return target remains, there is significant opportunity in the legacy Westrock assets, and the 2025 CapEx plan addresses immediate needs while they assess further projects.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to Smurfit WestRock PLC (SW) leadership • Q2 2024

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP Paribas asked for a quantification of the historical losses from the unprofitable North American box contracts that are being addressed. He also sought clarity on whether the 'flat volumes' guidance for the second half was on a sequential or year-over-year basis.

    Answer

    CEO Tony Smurfit provided context by stating that a box plant system with $10 billion in sales should generate $800 million to $1.2 billion in profit, whereas this system was loss-making last year, indicating a significant opportunity. EVP & Group CFO Ken Bowles clarified that the guidance for 'flat volumes' refers to the second half of the year compared to the first half.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to International Paper Co (IP) leadership

    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to International Paper Co (IP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands sought to clarify if the lighthouse strategy is the primary driver for recovering the $300-$400 million in lost productivity and asked for an update on the expected annual corporate expense for 2025 after recent restructuring.

    Answer

    Executive Andrew Silvernail clarified that the $300-$400 million opportunity is composed of roughly $175-$200 million from mill reliability improvements and the balance from broader productivity. He explained the lighthouse strategy delivers savings by closing plants and consolidating volume. For corporate expense, he confirmed it will decrease by the announced $120 million, with costs being reallocated more appropriately to the business segments.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to International Paper Co (IP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands asked how much of the long-term EBITDA uplift target was expected to come from the Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) business and whether recent procurement savings were included in previously announced figures. He also sought clarification on the definition of the 20-30% productivity improvement in the pilot programs.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Andy Silvernail stated that GCF represents a 'pretty small part' of the path to the $4 billion EBITDA target. He also confirmed that the recent procurement wins were not part of the previously disclosed $230 million opportunity. He clarified that the 20-30% productivity improvement is best measured as an increase in output over a fixed base, such as 'square feet per unit,' which frees up capacity for growth or consolidation.

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    Charlie Muir-Sands's questions to International Paper Co (IP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Charlie Muir-Sands questioned the contribution of the Global Cellulose Fibers (GCF) business to the company's long-term EBITDA target and asked for clarification on the 20-30% productivity improvement metric from the pilot programs.

    Answer

    Chairman and CEO Andy Silvernail explained that GCF represents a 'pretty small part' of the path to the $4 billion EBITDA target. He also clarified that recent procurement savings were not part of previously announced cost-saving figures. On productivity, he defined the metric as an increase in output over a fixed base (e.g., square feet per unit), which frees up capacity for growth or allows for consolidation in over-supplied regions.

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