Chris Carey

Chris Carey questioned the gap between sweet baked snacks' organic sales and consumption in the quarter, its drivers, and future expectations. He also asked how the sweet baked snacks segment is factored into the fiscal 2027 growth algorithm and for context on the pet segment's Q3 performance, including any shortfalls against expectations.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the sweet baked snacks gap to timing around operational efficiencies and consumption, along with resetting promotional activity. He noted it's difficult to project FY27 top-line trajectory but expects profitability to build. CEO Mark Smucker expressed satisfaction with pet performance, highlighting Meow Mix's 5% growth and innovation, Milk-Bone's return to growth, and ongoing efforts to stabilize Pup-Peroni and Canine Carry Outs amidst competition.

Chris Carey asked about the gap between sweet baked snacks' organic sales and consumption in the quarter, its drivers, and whether it should be expected going forward. He also inquired about the pet segment's performance, if it was light of expectations, and any shortfalls relative to internal targets.

Answer

CFO Tucker Marshall attributed the sweet baked snacks gap to timing around operational efficiencies and consumption, as well as resetting promotional activity. He noted it's hard to communicate the top-line trajectory for next fiscal year but expects profitability to build back. CEO Mark Smucker expressed satisfaction with pet performance, highlighting Meow Mix's growth, Milk-Bone's recovery, and successful innovation, while acknowledging softness in Pup-Peroni and Canine Carry Outs due to competition and private label, with ongoing brand refresh and marketing investments.

Chris Carey asked for context on the top-line performance for standalone KDP, specifically the contribution from the U.S. Refreshment business, including pricing, partner assets, and base business performance. He also inquired about the assumptions embedded for the JDE Peet's business within the 6-7 percentage point EPS contribution for 2026, covering top-line and margins.

Answer

CFO Anthony DiSilvestro outlined the overall guidance, confirming 4%-6% top-line and EPS growth for standalone KDP, driven by U.S. Refreshment Beverages' innovation and share gains. For JDE Peet's, he noted the expected $8.5 billion-$8.7 billion incremental revenue, related operating income, early synergy capture, and financing costs, which net down to a 6-7 point EPS benefit in 2026, consistent with the 10% accretion outlook.

Chris Carey sought clarity on the 2026-2028 free cash flow outlook, asking if it implies net income growth or conversion, and if high single-digit EPS growth is underwritten for that period. He also inquired about the conditions for tapping additional financing paths, given potential EBITDA risks from green coffee inflation.

Answer

SVP of Finance Jane Gelfand stated the free cash flow outlook is a three-year view to provide clarity on the vision, with 2026 specifics to be unpacked later. She confirmed the company has solved for solid balance sheets, reducing leverage from 5.6x to 4.6x at close, and aims for deleveraging at half a turn per year. She added that all options would be evaluated flexibly to maximize value.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on the 2026-2028 free cash flow outlook, specifically if it implies net income growth aligned with the longer-term high single-digit EPS algorithms. He also questioned the conditions under which KDP would tap into additional financing paths like a Beverage Co IPO or selling minority stakes, especially if EBITDA risks arise from green coffee inflation.

Answer

SVP of Finance Jane Gelfand stated that the free cash flow projections for BevCo (over $6 billion) and Global Coffee Co (over $5 billion) represent a three-year view to provide clarity for planning. She noted that the company will evaluate all options for additional capital, including a Beverage Co IPO or monetizing non-core assets, only if they unlock maximum value and better outcomes, emphasizing flexibility in response to market variability.

Chris Carey inquired about the phasing of value pricing initiatives, specifically whether promotional activity, price rollbacks, or Price Pack Architecture investments would lead early in Q2 2026, given their differing lead times.

Answer

CEO Steve Cahillane confirmed that Price Pack Architecture takes time, but quick adjustments can be made in pricing and opening price points. CFO Andre Maciel added that the majority of the $600M is for healthier long-term growth. Incremental price resources will show up later in 2026, but optimization of 2025 tactics starts earlier in Q2 2026, with very selected base price adjustments.

Chris Carey questioned the phasing of value pricing initiatives, specifically whether promotional activity would lead early, price rollbacks begin in Q2, and price pack architecture initiatives come later.

Answer

CEO Steve Cahillane confirmed that Price Pack Architecture takes time but is being accelerated, while quick adjustments can be made to pricing and opening price points. He emphasized returning to consumer-friendly price points through productivity and investment. CFO Andre Maciel added that the majority of the $600 million is for healthier long-term growth. Incremental price resources will show up later in Q2/second half, with earlier Q2 efforts optimizing last year's tactics. Opening price points will impact 40% of categories, with very selected base price adjustments.

Chris Carey asked for a strategic overview of how the company plans to overcome challenges in volatile markets like India, China, and Mexico in 2026, considering both easier comparisons and planned actions.

Answer

CEO-elect and Chief Operating Officer Henrique Braun explained that the 'all-weather strategy' leverages momentum in strong markets to offset challenges elsewhere. For China, despite subdued consumer sentiment, the company gained share and is building for the long term. India faced industry and weather impacts, but investments are ongoing. In Mexico, they are applying robust Revenue Growth Management (RGM) foundations, leveraging past tax increase learnings, and activating World Cup and 100-year anniversary campaigns to navigate the new excise tax.

Chris Carey asked for strategic insights on overcoming challenges in volatile markets like India, China, and Mexico (due to excise tax) in 2026, considering easier comparisons and planned actions.

Answer

Henrique Braun, CEO-elect and COO, explained that the 'all-weather strategy' leverages momentum in strong markets to offset challenges elsewhere. He noted that China's consumer sentiment is below pre-pandemic levels but the company continues to gain share. For India, investments are ahead of the curve, and for Mexico, learnings from past tax increases and RGM foundations are being applied, alongside World Cup activations and 100-year system celebrations.

Chris Carey inquired about the expectations for fiscal Q2 organic sales, differentiating between North America and international shipment timing, and the implications of FemCare dilution on fiscal 2027 earnings growth.

Answer

Rod Little, President and CEO, and Fran Weissman, CFO, explained that Q2 organic sales are expected to be down approximately 3% due to sun care phasing and Japan NPD promo timing. International is projected for slight growth in Q2, flat in H1, and 6%+ in H2. Regarding FemCare, they noted a transitional services agreement income and plans to address $30-35 million in stranded costs over 18-24 months. They anticipate a stronger portfolio, 150 basis points higher gross margin, and over $150 million in free cash flow recovery in fiscal 2027.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on fiscal Q2 organic sales expectations, specifically regarding North America versus international shipment timing, and the anticipated contributions from each region in the back half of the year. He also inquired about the implications of Fem Care dilution for fiscal 2027 earnings growth.

Answer

Rod Little, President and CEO, explained that international Q2 sales would see slight growth, with first-half flat performance due to sun care shipment phasing and Japan innovation timing, expecting 6%+ growth in the back half. Fran Weissman, CFO, noted Q2 organic net sales are expected to be down about 3% due to sun care phasing and Japan NPD timing, but the first half is in line with expectations. Regarding Fem Care dilution, Little and Weissman clarified that TSA income mitigates stranded costs, with plans to address remaining stranded costs over 18-24 months. Little also highlighted a stronger portfolio, 150 basis points gross margin improvement, and an expected $150 million+ free cash flow recovery in fiscal 2027.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on Edgewell's productivity numbers, noting that the Q4 figure was the lowest disclosed, and sought confidence in the company's ability to use productivity to offset gross margin declines. He also questioned the apparent contradiction between comments on pricing in North America and expectations for pricing in the second half of the year, aiming to understand the drivers of anticipated gross margin improvement.

Answer

Rod Little, President and CEO, outlined a second-half-oriented plan, expressing confidence in its profile. He attributed gross margin delivery to higher expected sales growth in the second half, driven by distributor timing and pricing in international markets (e.g., Japan), and positive planogram changes, new brand campaigns, and A&P spend in North America. Fran Weissman, CFO, clarified that Q4 productivity was in line with expectations, with the core issue being transitory inventory adjustments from the Mexico plant consolidation and higher trade promotions, not productivity itself. She affirmed consistent productivity delivery (250 bps historically, 260 bps expected in 2026, 310 bps with mitigation) and explained that 2026 productivity would be equally phased, with tariff mitigation efforts gaining run rate in the second half.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on Edgewell's Q4 productivity number, which was the lowest disclosed, and the gross margin coming in below expectations. He sought confidence in the company's ability to use productivity as an offset for future challenges and reconcile comments on back-half pricing versus limited North American price increases to ensure gross margin improvement throughout the year.

Answer

Rod Little, President and CEO, outlined a second-half-oriented plan driven by higher expected sales growth, distributor timing, pricing in Japan, and North American planogram resets. Fran Weissman, CFO, clarified that Q4 productivity was in line with expectations, with the core issue being transitory inventory adjustments from the Mexico plant consolidation and higher trade promotions. She reiterated confidence in delivering 260 basis points of core productivity and 310 basis points with mitigation in 2026, with tariffs disproportionately impacting the first half and mitigation efforts reaching run rate in the second half.

Chris Carey asked about the progress and evolution of the Home and Personal Care (HPC) business, including challenges from the external environment and the company's confidence in executing its plans. He also sought clarification on the expected cadence of EBITDA for the year, particularly regarding Q1 anomalies and confidence in achieving full-year objectives.

Answer

David Maura, Chairman and CEO, highlighted managing the significant FY25 tariff impact on HPC, immediate pricing actions, and elasticity, expressing satisfaction with Q1's $20 million EBIT. He believes improved FY26 profitability will drive industry consolidation, positioning Spectrum Brands as a strategic merger partner. For EBITDA cadence, he noted HPC's healing process, North America's improvement, but disruption in Europe from cheap Chinese products, anticipating a 'messy' Q2 for HPC but projecting EBITDA growth for the appliance unit in Q3/Q4.

Chris Carey asked for an update on the progress and evolution of the Home and Personal Care (HPC) business, including external challenges faced and the company's confidence in executing its plans. He also sought clarification on the expected cadence of EBITDA for the year, particularly regarding Q1 anomalies and confidence in achieving full-year objectives.

Answer

David Maura, Chairman and CEO, detailed the HPC business's recovery from a $500 million tariff problem in fiscal 2025, which caused supply chain disruptions and price increases. He expressed satisfaction with Q1's $20 million EBIT, noting Spectrum Brands' stronger position compared to leveraged competitors. He anticipates improved profitability in fiscal 2026 will drive industry consolidation. For EBITDA cadence, he explained that while North America is healing, cheap Chinese product dumping is impacting Europe, making Q2 'messy' for HPC, but Q3 and Q4 are expected to show EBITDA growth due to pricing, fixed supply chains, and strategic go-to-market plans.

Chris Carey inquired about the journey of the Global Pet Care business, specifically regarding intense competitive activity from private label and branded 'ankle biters,' and the outlook for stabilization and return to growth over the next 12 months.

Answer

David Maura, Executive Chairman and CEO, expressed satisfaction with new talent, a data-driven approach, and improved trends after resetting shelf space. He noted the decline of smaller competitors and the market share gains of products like Nature's Miracle. Maura reiterated his vision for the pet business to reach $3 billion in revenue and $500 million in EBITDA, seeing more M&A opportunities at better prices. Faisal Qadir, EVP and CFO, added that Q4 showed stabilization and the business is well-positioned for growth, with expansion opportunities in adjacent categories.

Chris Carey asked about the updated thought process around strategic and fundamental options for the Home & Personal Care (HPC) business, including potential outcomes, the impact of the evolving tariff backdrop, and the path forward for the segment. He also inquired about the journey of the Global Pet Care (GPC) category, competitive activity, stabilization, and the outlook for returning to growth over the next 12 months.

Answer

CEO David Maura explained that discussing M&A opportunities on a live call is not possible, but noted that significant tariff headwinds had previously sidelined strategic processes for HPC. He highlighted the pivot to maximize cash, reduction in fixed expenses, and diversification of the supply chain to reduce reliance on China. Maura expressed excitement to resume strategic discussions for HPC as trade policy stabilizes, viewing the fragmented industry as ripe for consolidation. For GPC, Maura and CFO Faisal Qadir discussed new talent, a data-driven approach, improved shelf placement, and stabilizing POS and shipments. They noted that 'branded ankle biters' are receding, and products like Nature's Miracle are gaining market share. Both executives expressed a bullish outlook for GPC in fiscal 2026, anticipating a return to growth and significant M&A opportunities.

Chris Carey asked for a 'state of the union' on the European market, specifically commenting on the U.K.'s performance and the medium-term outlook, noting recent stabilization and sequential improvement in the region.

Answer

Stéphane de La Faverie, President and CEO, confirmed sequential improvement in Europe, driven by emerging markets and the U.K. returning to positive territory. He acknowledged challenges in France and Germany but highlighted strong performance and market share gains in fragrances in Spain and Italy. He mentioned applying U.S. playbooks to the U.K. (Amazon, specialty multi-partnerships) and expressed excitement about double-digit growth in priority emerging markets (Turkey, Middle East, Thailand, India) due to the new organizational structure.

Chris Carey from Wells Fargo inquired about the stabilization and sequential improvement observed in the European market, requesting a 'state of the union' and specific comments on the U.K. market's outlook in the medium term.

Answer

Stéphane de La Faverie, President and CEO, attributed Europe's sequential improvement to emerging markets and the U.K. returning to positive territory in the last quarter, despite acknowledging ongoing work needed in the U.K. He noted subdued consumer sentiment in France and Germany but strong performance and market share gains in fragrances in Spain and Italy. He detailed applying U.S. playbooks to the U.K., including Amazon expansion, distribution rationalization, and accelerating specialty multi partnerships (Sephora U.K., Boots). He expressed excitement for priority emerging markets (Turkey, Middle East, Thailand, India) achieving double-digit growth due to the new organizational structure.

Chris Carey asked about Hershey's aggressiveness in hedging the current cocoa price drop for 2027, and whether current cocoa levels suggest no pricing will be needed in 2027. He also inquired about Hershey's view on desired volume levels over the next 18 months and when volumes are expected to return to flat or positive growth.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil stated that Hershey has a thoughtful, structured hedging program for 2027 but did not provide specific details. He indicated that current cocoa trading levels likely reduce pressure on near-term pricing for 2027, as pricing is just one part of a long-term strategy that includes mix, innovation, and price-pack architecture. He added that while 2026 involves digesting price increases, the goal for 2027 and beyond is a more balanced mix of price and volume, with parts of the portfolio (sweets, better-for-you, premiums, functional products) set up for volume growth. CEO Kirk Tanner emphasized that volume unit growth and occasion growth are important levers for future plans.

Chris Carey asked how aggressive Hershey can be about hedging the current drop in cocoa for 2027, and if current levels suggest no need for pricing in 2027. He also inquired about Hershey's view on where volumes should be over the next 18 months and when they expect volumes to return to flat to positive growth.

Answer

Steve Voskuil (SVP and CFO) declined specific 2027 hedging details but mentioned a structured program. He stated that current cocoa trading levels 'probably takes some pressure off pricing in the near term' for 2027, emphasizing pricing is one part of a long-term strategy including mix and innovation. He noted that the 2026 plan involves digesting price increases, and for 2027 and beyond, the goal is a more balanced mix of price and volume, with parts of the portfolio (sweets, better-for-you, functional) set for volume growth. Kirk Tanner (President and CEO) added that volume unit growth and occasion growth are very important, with plans for 2027-2028 to drive growth through consumer occasions.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on the 2026 algorithm conversation, specifically if more pricing would have been necessary if cocoa costs had not come down, despite similar commentary on the outlook. He also inquired about the reorientation of the tax rate, asking for details on what's driving it and Hershey's medium-term tax planning and opportunities.

Answer

Senior Vice President and CFO Steve Voskuil stated that Hershey would not anticipate taking more prices in 2026 even if cocoa remained at prior levels, focusing instead on other levers like productivity and transformation. President and CEO Kirk Tanner added that Hershey retains flexibility to invest for the long haul and recover margin. Steve Voskuil explained the tax rate changes were due to adjustments in reserves, less tax-efficient procurement strategies for cocoa, and fewer attractive tax credit investment opportunities, promising more guidance for next year.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on the 2026 algorithm conversation, specifically if the company would have needed to take more pricing if cocoa had not come down, and if that situation is now avoided. He also inquired about the tax rate, its reorientation, and medium-term tax planning opportunities.

Answer

SVP and CFO Steve Voskuil stated that the company would not anticipate taking more prices in 2026, even if cocoa remained at prior levels, though pricing remains a long-term lever. CEO Kirk Tanner emphasized retaining flexibility to invest in the business for the long haul, balancing momentum with future growth opportunities and margin recovery. Steve Voskuil explained tax rate impacts from reserve adjustments, less tax-efficient procurement strategies for cocoa, and fewer attractive tax credit investment opportunities, promising more guidance for 2026 later.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on where the company expects significant volume trajectory change in 2026, regionally, and the key drivers, including North American channel strategies, easier European comps, and emerging market PPA impacts. He also sought to understand the multi-year investment strategy, specifically if media and other investments would be 'lapped' by 2027, leading to improved top-line complexion, gross margins, and operating leverage, or if multi-year investments would continue.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put stated that EMEA (including India, Australia, China) and Latin America are expected to be big sources of volume growth. He noted that North America is not expected to see volume growth due to consumer confidence and soft biscuit category, though declines should ease. In Europe, he anticipates continued good performance in non-chocolate categories and positive volume effects in chocolate from easing price increases and readjustments. Van de Put explained that 2026 involves a significant step-up in working media investments compared to 2025. For 2027, he expects another step-up in investments to drive volume growth, aiming for strong EPS growth while reinvesting part of the significant uplift in chocolate margins due to easing commodity prices, particularly cocoa.

Chris Carey inquired about the regional drivers for the anticipated 'significant volume trajectory change' in 2026 and the nature of investments being lapped into 2027, including multi-year investment plans.

Answer

Dirk Van de Put, Chairman and CEO, expects EMEA (India, Australia, China) and Latin America to be major sources of volume growth in 2026. He anticipates easing volume declines in North America but not overall growth, while Europe expects positive volume effects from easing chocolate price increases and continued strong performance in other categories. He confirmed a significant increase in working media investments for 2026 and another step-up planned for 2027 to drive volume growth. He also noted that commodity easing, particularly in cocoa, is expected to lead to a significant uplift in chocolate margins in 2027, with a portion reinvested and the rest flowing to the bottom line for strong EPS growth.

Chris Carey asked about the North America strategy, comparing Mondelez's approach of protecting the profit pool with pricing and offering value through innovation/pack changes to competitors investing in value for long-term volume growth. He questioned the confidence in this strategy and whether profit protection and value offerings are mutually exclusive. He also inquired if any planned 2026 investments were pulled forward into Q4 and if the 2026 earnings outlook embeds sufficient spending to avoid further needs in 2027.

Answer

Dirk Van de Put (Chairman and CEO) explained that 2025 was unique due to cocoa and a slower U.S. market, necessitating profit pool protection. He noted that initial promotional strategies in North America didn't yield expected volume, impacting margins. The current shift is to optimize the situation. For 2026, improved chocolate conditions allow more investment, but he's not convinced a pure 'value play' is the best solution, as consumers don't solely react to value. Instead, their PPA strategy offers lower price point products with good margins. Luca Zaramella (CFO) stated Q4 AUC investment plans are locked in and align with guidance. He emphasized the company's virtuous model of continuous investment in brands and execution, citing examples like Biscoff launches requiring meaningful spending. He doesn't believe they will be 'done' with investment in 2026, as they aim for continuous growth and will 'go all in' on incremental initiatives.

Chris Carey questioned Mondelēz's North America strategy, asking about the balance between investing in value to drive long-term volume and protecting the profit pool. He sought clarification on the company's confidence in its current approach and whether profit protection and value offerings are mutually exclusive. He also asked about any pull-forward of 2026 investments into Q4 and the sufficiency of planned 2026 spending.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Dirk Van de Put explained that the current strategy balances dealing with cocoa costs and a slower U.S. market, noting that earlier promotional strategies didn't yield expected volume. He stated that current price increases and promo changes optimize the situation rather than solely protecting profit. He expressed skepticism about a broad 'value play' in the U.S., favoring PPA adjustments for lower price points with good margins. CFO Luca Zaramella confirmed Q4 AUC investments are locked in. He emphasized that 2026 investments are part of a continuous virtuous cycle, with sufficiency of spending for new initiatives like Biscoff launches, and not a one-time replenishment.

Chris Carey noted Trademark Pepsi's volume and dollar growth in 2025, asking what contributed to this success and how momentum will be maintained in 2026. He also inquired about plans to reinvigorate growth for Mountain Dew, which has been more sluggish.

Answer

Ramon Laguarta, CEO, expressed satisfaction with Pepsi's performance, highlighting investments in Pepsi Zero (based on consumer preference and advertising), and successful food service campaigns increasing availability. For Mountain Dew, he acknowledged it's a more difficult project but noted progress through iterating innovation (Baja, flavors) and a segmented, granular local marketing model, expecting 2026 to be better than 2025.

Chris Carey asked about the drivers behind Trademark Pepsi's volume and dollar growth in 2025 and how that momentum can be sustained in 2026. He also inquired about plans to reinvigorate growth for Mountain Dew, which has been more sluggish.

Answer

CEO Ramon Laguarta expressed satisfaction with Pepsi's performance, noting its importance globally and in the U.S., with continued potential. He highlighted investments in Pepsi Zero Sugar, which has shown consumer preference over competitors, and successful food service campaigns increasing availability and trial. For Mountain Dew, he acknowledged it as a more difficult project but noted progress through innovation (e.g., Baja, flavors for Hispanic populations) and a segmented, granular local marketing model. He expects Mountain Dew's performance to improve sequentially, with 2025 being better than 2024, and 2026 better than 2025.

Chris Carey asked for Ramon Laguarta's thoughts on the cyclical versus structural dynamics of consumer behavior, comparing the U.S. (shifting preferences, value seeking) with international markets, specifically whether international consumers are behaving similarly economically and if their preferences are evolving like North American consumers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta identified several structural global trends: consumers moving to digital purchasing (changing industry dynamics), increased consumer information about food/drink ingredients leading to choices based on clean labels and type of food (influencing brand relaunches), and affordability/value seeking due to stretched low/middle-income households. He noted these trends vary in speed but are generally moving in the same direction across most markets.

Chris Carey asked for Ramon Laguarta's perspective on the interplay between cyclical and structural factors influencing consumer behavior, particularly comparing North America with international markets. He sought to understand how much of the North American shift is due to structural preferences (healthier eating) versus cyclical (value seeking) and whether international consumers exhibit similar economic behaviors and evolving preferences.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ramon Laguarta identified several structural trends impacting consumers globally: the shift to digital purchasing (changing industry dynamics, delivery expectations), increased consumer information about food/drink ingredients (driving demand for clean labels, specific ingredients beyond taste), and the reality of affordability (stressed low/middle-income households, need for value/price points). He stated that these trends, while varying in speed, are generally moving in the same direction across most markets, guiding PepsiCo's rapid portfolio transformation and cost structure adjustments to compete effectively in the future demand landscape.

Chris Carey raised concerns about the risk of over-distributing the Touchland brand, particularly in channels like mass retail, and how the company plans to maintain brand exclusivity while still achieving strong growth rates. He also asked about Touchland's impact on back-half growth guidance.

Answer

Rick Dierker (CEO) and Brian Buchert (EVP of Strategy, M&A, and Business Partnerships) reiterated that there are no near-term plans for mass distribution, emphasizing careful and selective channel choices to preserve brand cachet. They noted a successful holiday test at Costco, a more premium club channel, which did not negatively impact sales at Ulta or Sephora. Lee McChesney (CFO) clarified that while Touchland will contribute to organic growth in the back half, the overall 3-4% growth outlook is balanced across the portfolio, including other strong brands like TheraBreath and Hero.

Chris Carey asked about Touchland's distribution strategy, specifically how the company balances brand exclusivity and cachet with strong growth, referencing a Costco test. He also questioned Touchland's impact on back-half growth rates for 2026, given its strong growth and entry into the base.

Answer

CEO Rick Dierker stated that the company is very careful and selective about Touchland's distribution channels to maintain brand cachet, with no near-term plans for mass distribution. EVP of Strategy, M&A, and Business Partnerships Brian Buchert noted that a holiday test at Costco, considered a more premium channel, went well without impacting high velocity in Sephora/Ulta. CFO Lee McChesney explained that while Touchland becomes a positive organic contributor in the back half of 2026, the 3-4% growth range allows for flexibility, balanced by other brands' growth rates.

Chris Carey inquired about Colgate-Palmolive's balance sheet strength, low leverage, and capital allocation strategy, particularly concerning M&A. He asked if the recent impairment changes views on desired categories and about the evolving thought process on potential acquisition targets.

Answer

CFO Stan Sutula highlighted the strong balance sheet and record operating cash flow ($4.2 billion in 2025), providing significant flexibility and "dry powder." Capital allocation priorities are investing in the business (facilities, R&D, capabilities), returning to shareholders (dividends, buybacks), and then M&A. He stated that the impairment was part of running the business, and they still believe in the long-term health of that business. M&A will be disciplined, focusing on opportunities that complement the portfolio, as seen with Hill's acquisitions (Red Collar, Prime100). Chairman, President, and CEO Noel Wallace added that they are cautious but would utilize the balance sheet for the right opportunities, prioritizing investments in growth.

Chris Carey asked if early positive retailer shipment activity in Q1 and quarter-to-date has altered the company's view on the phasing of growth and inventory loads throughout the year, particularly given an expected back-half weighted year.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Jim Hagedorn emphasized a shift away from quarterly focus towards long-term milestones, noting that patterns are evolving back to a more traditional cadence, though weather remains a factor. CFO Mark Scheiwer suggested the sales shift from H2 to H1 might be less than initially expected (around 1% instead of 2%). President and COO Nate Baxter added that healthy retailer inventory levels at the end of the last fiscal year and retailer optimism are contributing factors.

Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities asked how early positive signs of retailer shipments, both in the quarter and quarter-to-date, have evolved the company's view on the phasing of sales and timing of inventory loads through the year.

Answer

Jim Hagedorn, Chairman and CEO, indicated a shift towards a more traditional sales pattern, emphasizing a long-term focus over quarterly fluctuations. Mark Scheurer, EVP, CFO and Chief Accounting Officer, suggested the shift in sales from the second half to the first half might be slightly less than initially expected. Nate Baxter, President and COO, noted healthy retailer inventories and optimism for the spring season.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on any evolution in Kimberly-Clark's 2026-2028 model expectations compared to the S-4 filing, and the visibility and confidence in achieving medium-term outcomes, particularly the acceleration projected for 2028.

Answer

CFO Nelson Urdaneta stated that the 2026 outlook reflects softer Q4 2025 demand and a 60 basis point headwind from club channel distribution loss, which differs from the S-4. He outlined 2026 expectations including top-line growth at or above category, operating profit at the higher end of mid-to-high single digits, and adjusted EPS in line with 2025 (constant currency), offset by reduced income from discontinued operations. Chairman and CEO Mike Hsu added that Kenvue's potential remains unchanged, despite a conservative S-4 outlook, and emphasized strong visibility into productivity and innovation for future growth.

Chris Carey asked for clarification on any evolution in Kimberly-Clark's medium-term growth expectations (2026-2028) compared to those established in the S-4 filing, and the company's confidence in achieving an acceleration in 2028.

Answer

CFO Nelson Urdaneta explained that the 2026 outlook reflects momentum from innovation but also accounts for softer-than-anticipated Q4 2025 demand and the 60 basis point headwind from North America club channel distribution loss, which differs from the S-4. He affirmed the ongoing business is well-positioned for the long-term algorithm, targeting operating profit growth at the higher end of mid-to-high single digits and adjusted EPS in line with 2025 (constant currency), offset by reduced income from discontinued operations. Chairman and CEO Mike Hsu added that Kenvue integration has not changed their positive view on the combination's potential.

Chris Carey asked about Kimberly-Clark's response to promotional activity in North America, the performance of Q4 initiatives, their impact on competitiveness, and associated margin implications. He also inquired about the commodity outlook (excluding tariffs), its drivers, and the evolving tariff backdrop.

Answer

President and COO Russ Torres stated that promotion is a tactic for trial, not category expansion, focusing on strengthening value propositions and innovation across all tiers, citing North America's 2.2% YTD volume mix growth (2.9% two-year stack). CEO Mike Hsu noted that earlier deeper competitive discounts had less impact than expected, and their innovation-driven trial promotions are gaining traction. CFO Nelson Urdaneta expects Q4 gross margins to expand due to supply chain investments and tariff mitigation. Operating profit margins are expected to be similar to last year's Q4 due to stepped-up marketing investments, aiming for full-year operating profit margin expansion. On tariffs, gross tariffs are down to $100M from $170M, with $50M mitigated, expecting full mitigation by next year, and noted an exclusion for Brazilian eucalyptus.

Chris Carey from Wells Fargo probed Kimberly-Clark's response to increased promotional activity in North America, its impact on competitiveness and Q4 performance, and the resulting margin implications. He also inquired about the commodity outlook, excluding tariffs, and the evolving tariff landscape, including any specific exclusions.

Answer

President & COO Russ Torres and CEO Mike Hsu explained that Kimberly-Clark views promotion as a trial-driving tactic, focusing on innovation and value propositions across all tiers, noting resilient demand and durable brands. CFO Nelson Urdaneta detailed expectations for Q4 gross margin expansion due to supply chain investments and tariff mitigation, while aiming for full-year operating profit margin expansion. He also updated on reduced gross tariffs and the benefit of a Brazilian eucalyptus exclusion.

Chris Carey inquired about the cost implications of P&G's progress, balancing restructuring savings against necessary investments, particularly if sales acceleration doesn't meet expectations over the next 12-18 months.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten explained that significant investments in core infrastructure (ERP, data lake) have already been made, and future technology activation will involve scaling rather than major new capital. He added that the announced two-year restructuring program is expected to cover most organizational and portfolio changes, aiming for disproportionate growth in productivity and sales per head without requiring further significant organizational investments.

Chris Carey asked about the cost associated with P&G's progress, specifically the balance between restructuring savings and the investment needed for new initiatives, especially if sales acceleration does not materialize as expected.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten explained that many foundational investments (ERP, data lake) were made over the last decade, and scaling technology won't require significant new capital. He added that elevated capital spending is for capacity building, leveraging automation, not fundamentally more expensive. The two-year restructuring program announced in June is expected to cover most organizational and portfolio changes, aiming for disproportionate sales per head growth without another wave of significant restructuring.

Chris Carey followed up on China, asking if improvements were broad-based beyond Skin and Personal Care, and whether these signs of improvement were durable or influenced by specific quarter factors.

Answer

CFO Andre Schulten confirmed that while Skin and Personal Care in China is accelerating, other categories are also picking up pace, including fabric care (up 5%), fem care, hair care, and baby care (20% growth). He attributed this broad-based improvement to P&G's integrated superiority approach, better consumer understanding, innovation, and improved retail execution, expressing confidence in the durability of these trends despite expected market volatility.

Chris Carey followed up on China, asking if improvements were observed in businesses beyond Skin and Personal Care, and if the positive trends were durable or influenced by specific quarterly factors.

Answer

Andre Schulten, CFO, confirmed that while Skin and Personal Care continued to accelerate, other categories like fabric care (up 5%), fem care, hair care, and baby care (20% growth) were also picking up pace. He attributed the breadth and consistency of results to P&G's integrated superiority approach, grounded in consumer understanding, innovation, and improved retail execution, expressing confidence in continued business building despite expected volatility.

Chris Carey asked if inflation should return to the 2% range next year, given this year's tracking to expectations, and if there are anomalies (pork/beef timing, tariff carryovers) preventing this. He also inquired about Conagra's latest approach to its portfolio (M&A, divestitures, separations) and how the balance sheet and leverage targets factor into medium-term objectives, given recent activity in the food sector.

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CEO Sean Connolly expressed caution on inflation prognostication but noted that after unprecedented peaks in commodity supercycles, a downward slope usually follows. He mentioned Conagra's portfolio is heavily skewed toward proteins, which have remained high but should normalize, potentially leading to P&L relief. Regarding portfolio strategy, Sean Connolly highlighted Conagra's history of M&A, divestitures, and separations (e.g., Chef Boyardee divestiture). He stated that management and the board are always open to creating shareholder value and are not entrenched. He noted they are currently focused on debt reduction, making inbounds unlikely soon, but outbounds are always considered if there's a clear path to value creation.

Chris Carey asked if inflation is expected to return to the 2% range next year, considering current tracking and potential anomalies with protein inflation or tariff carryovers, and inquired about Conagra's latest approach to portfolio opportunities (changes, separations, combinations) and how the balance sheet and leverage targets factor into medium-term objectives.

Answer

CEO Sean Connolly expressed caution on inflation prognostication but noted that unprecedented peaks in commodities usually lead to downward slopes, and while Conagra is skewed towards proteins, normalization is expected. He stated that Conagra has a history of M&A, divestitures, and separations, and the board is always seeking ways to create shareholder value without entrenchment. He confirmed that debt reduction is a current focus, making inbound M&A unlikely soon, but outbounds (like the recent Chef Boyardee divestiture) remain an option for long-term portfolio reshaping.

Chris Carey inquired about The Campbell's Company's Q1 gross margin, noting it was historically low, and asked how it aligned with expectations. He also sought insight into the expected phasing of gross margin improvement throughout the rest of the fiscal year, considering Q1 was anticipated to be the peak inflation quarter.

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CFO Todd Cunfer stated that Q1 gross margin was in line with expectations, driven by over 500 basis points of cost pressures, including approximately 200 basis points from tariffs and a similar amount from inflation. He praised the supply chain team for offsetting 70% of these costs. He expects similar gross margin pressure in Q2, with improvement in Q3 and particularly in Q4 as the company laps tariff impacts and cost improvement initiatives come to fruition. He acknowledged the need to achieve gross margins well above 30% over time.

Chris Carey inquired about the expected distributor inventory levels for 2025, specifically if lower absolute levels would mean lower than average inventory if category consumption improves, and whether the new leadership sees a need for massive reinvestment in the business.

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CEO Rahul Goyal stated that distributor inventories are in a healthy place, with days of inventory expected to be good going into next year, and capacity to pivot supply. Regarding reinvestment, he committed to building brands, supporting them appropriately across all segments, and using the balance sheet to fill portfolio gaps while returning cash to shareholders.

Chris Carey inquired about Molson Coors' expected distributor inventory levels for 2025, specifically if lower absolute inventory but consistent days of inventory would pose a risk if category consumption improves. He also asked CEO Rahul Goyal if he perceives a need for significant reinvestment in the business or if it's currently underinvested.

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CEO Rahul Goyal stated that distributor inventory levels are in a healthy place, with good capacity to pivot for Q1 supply. Regarding reinvestment, he affirmed commitment to building brands across all segments, championing beer, and strategically deploying capital for portfolio gaps while maintaining shareholder returns, without indicating a need for massive new investment.

Chris Carey asked how the second-half spending plans have evolved since the start of the year, specifically whether they are funded by incremental cost savings or aim for broader outcomes beyond innovations, and the balance between promotional activity and advertising. He followed up on the company's perspective on portfolio actions, given its diverse portfolio, clean balance sheet, and category volatility, and how it thinks about future portfolio evolution.

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CEO Linda Rendle explained that spending plans were refined based on consumer behavior and real-time insights, adjusting retail media, advertising, and promotional kickoffs (e.g., Kingsford). She emphasized strong ROIs and empowered business units for real-time adjustments. On portfolio, she stressed a long-term focus on strengthening the core and active board review of all options, including past divestitures (Argentina, VMS) and potential future tuck-ins or transformational moves, leveraging a strong balance sheet.

Chris Carey inquired about the implied Q4 gross margin, specifically if Brazil tariffs were heavily concentrated in Q4 and their impact. He also asked about key markers for tariff headlines related to Brazil, when further pricing might be needed for early next year, and how long the company would assess the tariff backdrop before making that decision. Additionally, he asked for an update on the international journey, its growth runway, and Vita Coco's capacity to service that market.

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Mike Kirban, Co-founder and Executive Chairman, discussed hopeful signs for tariff relief, including potential waivers for natural resources and ongoing trade deal discussions. Corey Baker, Chief Financial Officer, clarified that August tariffs had minimal impact on Q3, with the 23% rate expected to ramp up late in Q4. Martin Roper, Chief Executive Officer, explained that pricing decisions for Q2 next year would be made in Q1, monitoring elasticity, competitive actions, and mitigation strategies like diverting Brazil production. He also noted that Vita Coco is adding 1-2+ factories annually, ensuring sufficient capacity for international growth, and views Europe as being in early innings with significant long-term potential.

Chris Carey asked about the implied Q4 gross margin, specifically how Brazil tariffs would concentrate in Q4, and sought insight into the company's strategy for potential future pricing decisions given the fluid tariff headlines and mitigation efforts.

Answer

Co-founder and Executive Chairman Mike Kirban discussed hopes for Brazil tariff relief and exclusions in other trade deals. CFO Corey Baker clarified minimal August tariff impact in Q3, with the 23% rate hitting late Q4. CEO Martin Roper detailed July pricing to cover baseline tariffs, ongoing monitoring of elasticity and competitive actions, and mitigation plans for Brazil production, indicating reluctance to rush further pricing decisions amidst uncertainty.

Chris Carey followed up on beer margins, asking if inflation is expected to pick up in the second half. His main question focused on wine and spirits margins, inquiring about the drivers for improvement in the second half to meet full-year guidance and the feasibility of achieving a low 20% operating margin in fiscal 2027.

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CFO Garth Hankinson clarified no inflation pickup for beer in H2. For wine and spirits, H2 sees the bulk of volume and sales, along with vintage releases that drive higher sales and margins, offsetting a 'messy' H1 due to distributor payments and inventory adjustments. CEO Bill Newlands added that the wine and spirits business has focused on top-line growth, beating the market for six consecutive months, driven by brands like Kim Crawford and Meiomi, and is pleased with its development.

Chris Carey followed up on beer margins, asking if inflation is expected to pick up in the back half. He then focused on wine and spirits margins, questioning what factors would drive the necessary improvement in the second half to meet full-year guidance and whether a low 20% operating margin for fiscal 2027 remains a plausible expectation.

Answer

CFO Garth Hankinson clarified no inflation pickup for beer. For wine and spirits, he noted that the bulk of volume and sales occur in the second half, benefiting from additional volume and higher-margin vintage releases from the DTC business. He also mentioned that first-half 'messiness' was due to distributor payments and post-transaction inventory trips. CEO Bill Newlands added that the wine and spirits business has focused on top-line growth, beating the market for six straight months with strong brand performance.