Chris Caso

Chris Caso followed up on NXP's operating margin expectations for the year, inquiring about gross margins, OpEx, and operating leverage.

Answer

Bill Betz, CFO, stated that OpEx as a percentage of revenue is typically higher in the first half due to seasonal revenue, US benefits, Q2 annual merits/promotions, and a one-time IP license impact. He expects OpEx to be below the 23% model in the second half, leading to approximately 23% or below for the full year. NXP aims for leverage on the SG&A side while maintaining R&D investments at 16% for strategic areas like SDVs and physical AI.

Chris Caso followed up on NXP's automotive accelerated growth drivers, asking why they were below plan last year and what is driving the expected improvement this year, especially without an assumed improvement in SAAR. He also inquired about operating margin expectations, including gross margins, OpEx, and operating leverage for the year.

Answer

Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO, attributed the below-plan performance in 2025 to H1 inventory digestion, which paused some drivers like radar and electrification. He stated that the accelerated growth drivers still grew in 2025 and are now expected to be within or better than model in 2026. Bill Betz, CFO, detailed OpEx seasonality, noting that expenses as a percentage of revenue are typically higher in H1 due to seasonal revenue, US benefits, Q2 annual merits/promotions, and a one-time IP license impact. He expects OpEx to be out of model in H1 but below 23% in H2, leading to a full-year target of about 23% or below, with continued investments in R&D for SDVs and physical AI.

Chris Caso asked about the current inventory levels at NXP's direct automotive customers and the potential magnitude of impact if these customers decided to restock. He also sought more details on NXP's intentions regarding share buybacks, following the mention of their resumption in prepared remarks.

Answer

Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO, stated that direct auto customers are shifting to end demand and are not currently restocking, with inventory levels "way below our manufacturing cycle," which is an unhealthy level. He acknowledged that restocking represents a potential tailwind, though its timing is uncertain. Kurt Sievers, Executive Director and Advisor, added that NXP has been undershipping Tier 1 customers for eight quarters, a headwind that is now subsiding, and Tier 1 inventory is normalized for the current cautious macro environment, but no further restocking is observed. Bill Betz, CFO, confirmed that NXP's capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with buybacks restarted to balance investments and healthy shareholder returns, noting that 106% of non-GAAP free cash flow was returned to owners over the last 12 months.

Chris Caso asked about the current inventory levels at NXP's direct automotive customers and the potential magnitude of impact if these customers decided to restock. He also requested more details on NXP's intention regarding share buybacks now that they are resuming.

Answer

President and CEO Rafael Sotomayor stated that while NXP is shifting to end demand and normalization is visible in orders, direct customer restocking has not yet occurred. He noted that current inventory levels are significantly below NXP's manufacturing cycle, which is not a healthy level, and that restocking would be a potential tailwind, though its timing is uncertain. Executive Director and Advisor Kurt Sievers added that NXP has been undershipping Tier 1 for about eight quarters, and while this headwind is subsiding, the next lever of restocking has not yet happened. CFO Bill Betz confirmed no change to NXP's capital allocation strategy, stating that buybacks have restarted to balance investments with healthy returns to owners, having returned 106% of non-GAAP free cash flow in the last 12 months.

Chris Caso inquired how rising utilization rates and tight industry conditions affect KLA's service growth for 2026 and into 2027, given the 12-14% normalized service growth target.

Answer

Bren Higgins (CFO) confirmed that higher utilizations are a factor, but KLA's tools are consistently highly utilized. He listed growth drivers including a growing and longer-living install base, opportunities in memory and packaging, and leveraging KLA's infrastructure for acquired businesses, expressing confidence in operating at the higher end of the 12-14% target.

Chris Caso asked for more detail on the first half versus second half 2026 outlook, assuming advanced logic and DRAM are driving the second half acceleration, and if this is a function of lead times or facility dynamics. He also inquired about gross margin expectations for 2026, considering mix changes, particularly China's reduced percentage.

Answer

CEO Rick Wallace confirmed expectations for first half 2026 revenue to be flat to slightly up, with accelerating growth in the second half, driven by advanced logic and continued DRAM momentum, influenced by facility dynamics and lead times. CFO Bren Higgins stated that specific guidance for 2026 margins and operating expenses would be provided next quarter. He explained that gross margins are primarily impacted by product mix, not sales region, and that packaging and service growth can have dilutive gross margin but accretive operating margin. He also expressed hope that efforts to mitigate tariff exposure would reduce it as a headwind over time.

Chris Caso asked for more detail on the first half versus second half 2026 outlook, assuming advanced logic and DRAM are driving the second half, and if this timing is due to lead times or facility dynamics. He also inquired about gross margin expectations for 2026, particularly with China's percentage of mix coming down.

Answer

CEO Rick Wallace confirmed expectations for flat to slightly up revenue in the first half of 2026, with accelerating growth in the second half, driven by advanced logic, broadening investment, and continued DRAM momentum, influenced by facility dynamics. He stated that gross margins are primarily impacted by product mix, not geography, and that while tariffs are a consistent headwind, KLA is working to mitigate that exposure over time.

Chris Caso sought clarification on the growth trajectory of the data center business, distinguishing between the existing fan driver segment and new opportunities like current sensors and gate drivers. He also asked about Allegro MicroSystems' operating leverage in a recovery scenario over the next two to three years.

Answer

Mike Doogue, President and CEO, expects the data center business to grow at a market CAGR of over 20%, with additional growth from increasing dollar content, even with liquid cooling. Derek D'Antilio, CFO, highlighted significant operating leverage, noting that over 20% sales growth in FY26 is expected to more than double non-GAAP EPS, driven by a 60% gross margin drop-through and disciplined OpEx management.

Chris Caso asked about the growth trajectory of the data center business, differentiating between the existing fan business and new opportunities like current sensors and gate drivers. He also inquired about the expected operating leverage in a recovery over the next two to three years, specifically regarding fixed cost absorption on gross margin and OpEx growth relative to revenue.

Answer

President and CEO Mike Doogue expects the data center business to grow at a typical market CAGR of over 20%, with Allegro potentially growing higher due to increasing dollar content. He noted that the dollar content opportunity per rack is projected to grow from $150 today to $425 in the future, even with increased liquid cooling. CFO Derek D'Antilio highlighted the significant operating leverage already evident in FY26, with over 20% sales growth leading to more than double non-GAAP EPS. This leverage comes from a 60% gross margin drop-through (440 basis points improvement over 12 months) and disciplined OpEx, noting the company achieved $1.048 billion in revenue in FY24 with its current fixed cost structure.

Chris Caso asked for details on business trends in China for direct and distribution customers, and for the company's outlook on pricing heading into annual negotiations.

Answer

CEO Michael Doogue described a robust business in China with strong e-mobility design win momentum with local OEMs, driven by a strategy of differentiation at the high-end. On pricing, Mr. Doogue expects to land in a normal, low-single-digit year-over-year price reduction environment, consistent with automotive contracts, and does not see tariffs or supply tightness significantly altering that outlook.

Chris Caso inquired about the expected timing of deliveries within ASML's backlog, asking if the timing of expected shipments is stretching out compared to previous quarters, given factors like tight capacity and customer clean room availability. He also sought clarification on the headwinds and tailwinds affecting gross margins for 2026.

Answer

Roger Dassen, CFO, indicated that the second half of 2026 is expected to be stronger than the first half due to customer fab availability and ASML's increasing move rate. He confirmed that a significant portion of Q4 2025 orders and backlog is for 2027. Regarding gross margins, he cited lower immersion sales (due to supply constraints), higher dry sales (lower margin), and a mix effect from 3600 EUV tools and High-NA as headwinds. Tailwinds include higher EUV unit numbers and strong demand for installed base upgrades.

Chris Caso from Wolfe Research inquired about the expected timing of deliveries within ASML's backlog, asking if the delivery schedule is stretching out compared to previous quarters, considering factors like tight capacity and customer cleanroom space availability. He also sought clarification on the headwinds and tailwinds affecting ASML's gross margin for 2026, and the factors that could lead to the upper or lower ends of the guidance range.

Answer

CFO Roger Dassen stated that the second half of 2026 is expected to be stronger than the first half, driven by customer fab availability and ASML's continuous ramp in move rate. He confirmed that the majority of Q4 2025 orders are for 2027. Regarding gross margins, Roger listed headwinds including lower immersion sales (due to supply constraints), more dry sales (lower GM), a mix effect in EUV (more 3600s), and the initial impact of High NA. Tailwinds include higher EUV unit numbers, with installed base upgrades identified as a significant swing factor.

Chris Caso asked for an update on ASML's thinking regarding the installed base business for calendar 2026, specifically concerning the potential for backing out upgrade revenue. He also sought clarification on whether the recent optimism about AI developments indicates an expectation for stronger bookings in coming quarters, rather than an immediate increase in current total bookings.

Answer

CFO Roger Dassen noted that the installed base expectation for this year has increased, with service business developing nicely, tied to the growing EUV installed base. He will provide a 2026 update in January. Regarding AI, Mr. Dassen confirmed that current bookings are decent, but the positive developments (AI investments, broader customer base, technology progress, more EUV layers) primarily impact beyond 2026, with only a partial effect on 2026, indicating longer-term optimism.

Chris Caso from Wolfe Research asked about the trends in memory revenue and bookings, which appeared down in the quarter, and when to expect benefits from HBM demand to materialize in the order book. He also questioned if the strength in China revenue this year implies a pull-forward that could negatively impact 2026.

Answer

President & CEO Christophe Fouquet noted that while 2025 memory revenue remains strong, logic has seen a more significant increase this year. EVP & CFO Roger Dassen added that the lower Q2 memory bookings followed several quarters of very strong order intake from that segment. Regarding China, Roger Dassen reiterated that ASML sees healthy, sustained demand and not a pattern of pull-ins followed by a collapse.

Chris Caso sought clarification on factory loadings, asking if there are plans to increase them after recent reductions and what conditions would trigger such steps. He then inquired about how geographic revenue stacks up against normal seasonality in Q1, specifically addressing China with the New Year holiday.

Answer

CFO Rafael Lizardi stated there is no significant disclosure on loading changes, implying they are not significantly different from Q4, and highlighted TI's manufacturing flexibility to adjust as needed. CEO Haviv Ilan noted a typical Q1 seasonal decline in China for automotive due to Chinese New Year. Rafael Lizardi added that China's Q4 sequential revenue was in line with the overall top-level decline (down 7%), but up 16% year-on-year. Haviv Ilan concluded by emphasizing TI's readiness with capacity and inventory for any market scenario.

Chris Caso from Wolfe Research sought clarification on factory loadings, asking if there are current plans to increase them after recent reductions and what conditions would trigger such a step. He also inquired about geographic revenue trends, specifically how different regions, including China with its New Year holiday, are aligning with normal Q1 seasonality.

Answer

CFO Rafael Lizardi stated that no significant changes to factory loadings are currently planned beyond Q4 run rates, emphasizing the manufacturing flexibility to adjust as demand dictates. CEO Haviv Ilan and Rafael Lizardi noted that while China's automotive market typically sees a seasonal Q1 decline due to the New Year, overall backlog has been evenly distributed across geographies, with China's Q4 sequential revenue aligning with the company's overall performance.

Chris Caso inquired about the company's fab loading plans for the second half of the year and their target for internal inventory levels, given the cautious outlook. His follow-up sought a deeper understanding of the automotive market, including customer tone and inventory levels.

Answer

CFO Rafael Lizardi described the ideal strategy of maintaining stable factory loadings through cycles but noted the need for flexibility. CEO Haviv Ilan characterized the automotive market as being in a 'holding pattern,' with customers ordering cautiously and in real-time. He suggested a recovery might lag the industrial market's timeline, as its cycle peaked later.

Chris Caso inquired about the breadth and diversification of Celestial AI's expected revenue ramp, particularly concerning the customer base for the end of fiscal 2028 and beginning of fiscal 2029.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Matt Murphy explained that while industry engagement is broad, the initial volume will be driven by a single Tier 1 hyperscaler. He emphasized that Marvell's strong internal silicon photonics expertise, gained from the Inphi acquisition, will significantly benefit Celestial AI, and anticipates broader market adoption beyond the initial timeframe.

Chris Caso inquired about the breadth and diversification of the expected revenue ramp for Celestial AI at the end of fiscal 2028 and beginning of fiscal 2029, specifically asking about the customer base.

Answer

Matt Murphy (Chairman and CEO) explained that while engagement is broad, the initial volume production will be driven by a few large companies, specifically mentioning a strong engagement with one Tier 1 hyperscaler. He highlighted Marvell's internal silicon photonics expertise (from Inphi) and the strategic fit of Celestial AI, expecting broader adoption beyond the initial timeframe.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research LLC asked for an outlook on the second half of the fiscal year, specifically regarding the expected performance of the custom silicon business and the ongoing recovery in the carrier and enterprise segments.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Matt Murphy stated that despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Marvell sees continued strong demand in AI and data center. He also expects the recovery in its enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure businesses to continue and grow throughout the rest of the year, creating a positive setup for fiscal 2027.

Chris Caso from Wolfe Research inquired about GlobalFoundries' gross margins and utilization rates for Q4 and going into the new year, seeking commentary on the expected trajectory. He also asked about the potential effect of consolidation among mobile RF customers, specifically Skyworks and Qorvo, on GlobalFoundries' mobile business.

Answer

Interim CFO Sam Franklin explained that Q3 gross margin increased year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter despite flat/declining revenue, driven by improved profitability, accretive end market mix, and non-wafer technology services, rather than utilization which remained in the mid-80s. He noted that Q4 guidance reflects continued benefits from these initiatives. CEO Tim Breen addressed the mobile RF consolidation, stating that GlobalFoundries has a long track record with both Skyworks and Qorvo, built on technology leadership and supply security. He believes the strong relationships and future business will not change regardless of whether they operate as one or two companies.

Chris Caso inquired about GlobalFoundries' gross margins and utilization rates heading into the new year, asking for commentary on where utilization is expected to go. He also asked about the potential effect of consolidation among mobile customers, specifically on the RF side, on GlobalFoundries' mobile business.

Answer

Interim CFO Sam Franklin explained that Q3 gross margin expansion was driven by improved profitability focus, accretive end markets, and non-wafer technology services, with utilization trending in the mid-80s. CEO Tim Breen stated that GlobalFoundries has a long track record with key RF players like Skyworks and Qorvo, built on technology leadership and collaboration, and does not expect consolidation to change the strong relationships or future business.

Chris Caso from Wolfe Research asked for more detail on the ASP declines in the mobile segment, the rationale behind them, and their expected impact on future volume and margins. He also inquired about the company's capacity and ability to maintain low CapEx levels.

Answer

CEO Tim Breen clarified that the ASP adjustments were deliberate, long-term strategic decisions made in partnership with a few dual-sourced mobile customers to secure socket longevity and increase market share. He emphasized that GFS has available capacity and future investments will be highly capital-efficient, with over 50% of CapEx expected to be supported by government programs.

Chris Caso asked Microchip to characterize the current business environment compared to 90 days prior, specifically regarding December and March quarter growth expectations. He also inquired about the expected trajectory of inventory reserve and underutilization charges in future stronger quarters.

Answer

President and CEO Steve Sanghi noted a slightly softer overall business environment and the impact of tariffs, leading to customers scheduling strong bookings for the March quarter rather than December. CFO Eric Bjornholt added that while underutilization charges would be modestly down in the current quarter, inventory reserves are harder to predict, but the company expects a nice sequential increase in non-GAAP gross margins.

Chris Caso asked about Microchip's current business environment compared to 90 days prior, specifically regarding expectations for December and March quarters, and then inquired about the expected timeline for inventory reserve and underutilization charges to roll off in future stronger quarters.

Answer

President and CEO Steve Sanghi noted a slightly softer overall business environment, attributing it to broader industry trends and tariff impacts, but highlighted December's better-than-seasonal guidance. He explained that strong bookings were being scheduled for March, as customers and distributors reduce year-end inventory. CFO Eric Bjornholt added that while underutilization charges would be modestly down in the current quarter, inventory reserves are harder to predict but expected to decrease, contributing to a projected increase in non-GAAP gross margins.

Chris Caso asked for an estimate of how much Microchip is currently under-shipping actual end demand, particularly for its direct customers. He followed up by asking whether the under-shipment is greater for direct customers compared to distribution customers.

Answer

CEO Steve Sanghi stated that while they have a sense of the under-shipment level, the data is anecdotal and not 'audit proof' enough to share publicly, especially for the diverse direct customer base. However, he directionally confirmed that during the supply crunch, direct customers were prioritized and likely built higher inventory levels than distributors. Therefore, he believes the inventory correction and under-shipping are probably more significant at direct customers.

Chris Caso asked for an estimate of how much Microchip is currently under-shipping end demand, particularly for its direct customers, and whether the inventory correction is larger for direct or distribution channels.

Answer

CEO Steve Sanghi explained that quantifying the under-shipment to direct customers is difficult due to operational complexity but believes the inventory correction will continue for some time. He stated that, directionally, direct customers likely built up more inventory during the supply crunch as they were prioritized, suggesting their current inventory correction is more significant than at distributors.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research asked about the extent of SiTime's current market penetration in the AI data center segment and its plans to expand reach into unaddressed areas. He also inquired about the impact of the 1.6 TB transition on SiTime's timing content per board and identified other potential content drivers within the Communications, Enterprise, and Data Center (CED) segment.

Answer

Rajesh Vashist, Chief Executive Officer, described SiTime as being in the "early innings" of the AI data center market, selling to a broad ecosystem, and outlined plans for rapid expansion by adding resources in R&D, marketing, and sales, and increasing geographic footprint. He highlighted that the 1.6 TB transition would lead to higher volumes and significant increases in average selling prices (ASPs), also pointing to content growth in switches, accelerator cards, connectivity cards, and future potential with chiplet roadmaps.

Chris Caso inquired about the extent to which Snapdragon ASPs have driven handset growth, considering rising wafer prices, and how the industry absorbs these higher ASPs.

Answer

CEO Cristiano Amon highlighted a long-term trend of strong demand for more capable chips and processing in premium-tier devices, driven by OEM competition and consumer demand. He expressed confidence in the continued growth of content and ASPs for future chips, noting the significant mix shift towards more premium devices as a multi-year trend.

Chris Caso inquired about the extent to which Snapdragon ASPs have driven handset growth, the impact of rising wafer prices on ASPs, and how the industry absorbs these higher costs.

Answer

CEO Cristiano Amon highlighted a long-term trend of strong demand for more capable chips, driven by OEM competition and consumer activity, which supports higher ASPs. He expressed confidence in this trend continuing for several years and reiterated the significant multi-year mix shift towards more premium devices as a key factor.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research LLC followed up on the December quarter outlook, asking about the potential for Chinese OEMs to pull forward launches and the impact of an extra week in the prior year's quarter. He also questioned the spending impact of entering the data center business and the financial effects of the AlphaWave acquisition.

Answer

CFO & COO Akash Palkhiwala reiterated that the business remains strong and that December will be the seasonally strongest quarter, despite the Apple share dynamic. Regarding spending, he explained that OpEx is managed by reallocating existing spend towards growth areas like the data center, and the company will remain disciplined.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research asked about the puts and takes for the enterprise data segment looking into next year, specifically if market share changes are expected to be cleaner and if the business is projected to grow. He followed up by asking for more color on the drivers of the anticipated 30-40% growth in enterprise data, inquiring if it would be broad-based or skewed towards ASIC solutions or vertical power.

Answer

Michael Hsing, CEO and Founder, confirmed that the market is cleaner this year and the module business is growing, emphasizing that MPS technology excels in higher power density products, positioning them as a major player in this market segment in the next couple of years. Bernie Blegen, EVP and CFO, projected enterprise data growth in the range of 30-40% in 2026, primarily weighted to the second half due to material ramps from new players. Michael Hsing declined to elaborate further on the specific drivers of the 30-40% growth, preferring to let the numbers speak for themselves.

Chris Caso asked about the outlook for the enterprise data segment in 2026, including expectations for market share dynamics and projected growth. He followed up by asking for more color on the drivers of the anticipated 30-40% growth, specifically if it would be broad-based or skewed towards ASIC solutions and vertical power.

Answer

Michael Hsing (CEO and Founder) stated that the market is 'cleaner' and MPS's technology shines in higher power density products, positioning the company as a major player. Bernie Blegen (EVP and CFO) projected enterprise data growth in the range of 30-40% in 2026, with much of that weighted to the second half. Michael Hsing declined to specify the exact drivers or commit to the percentage, preferring to let the numbers speak for themselves.

Chris Caso inquired about the full-year guidance for the Enterprise Data segment, which was previously guided as flat plus or minus 20%, and asked for commentary on macro uncertainty and potential customer pull-ins that competitors have noted.

Answer

EVP & CFO Bernie Blegen stated that while not providing specific Q4 guidance, he expects Q4 to be up sequentially from a strong Q3. Founder, Chairman, President & CEO Michael Hsing added that they remain comfortable with the initial full-year outlook. Regarding macro concerns, Hsing emphasized MPS's focus on internal execution, while Blegen reiterated a 'cautiously optimistic' stance due to strong demand but short lead times.

Chris Caso inquired about the overall business conditions in China, asking about performance beyond the strong auto sector and whether there were any signs of pull-forwards in other Chinese markets.

Answer

EVP & CFO Richard Puccio stated that while China auto is strong, ADI is now seeing year-over-year growth across all industrial end markets in the region. He noted that these non-auto markets remain 35-50% below their prior peaks, suggesting significant runway for recovery rather than indicating a pull-forward.

Chris Caso asked about the significance of revenue from multinational customers in China during Q3 and whether the China revenue levels seen in Q2 and guided for Q4 are the correct run-rate for the next few quarters.

Answer

CFO Brice Hill described the revenue from multinationals in China as 'noticeable' in Q3 but 'very small' in the Q4 forecast. He confirmed that the Q2/Q4 level, which represents a 15-20% decline from fiscal 2024, is the right level to assume for the next several quarters.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research asked about any significant changes in the handset business over the last 90 days regarding content or unit sales, and how the extra week in the September quarter might affect December's seasonality.

Answer

CEO Philip Brace highlighted that strong unit demand and a favorable product mix have benefited the company, reflecting trends also mentioned by their top customer. He refrained from guiding for the December quarter, citing historical volatility. VP of Investor Relations Rajvindra Gill clarified that the extra week in the September quarter impacts operating expenses but not the revenue guidance.

Chris Caso asked for the expected revenue run-rate for the China Android business by the end of the fiscal year. He also inquired about the outlook for the Samsung business, considering the exit from mid-range models versus gains in the high-end, and whether a successful internal Samsung chipset would benefit Qorvo.

Answer

SVP & CFO Grant Brown clarified that the China Android exit run-rate would be higher than the suggested $20-30 million, as Qorvo will still target premium tiers, but confirmed the business will trend down from its current sub-$100 million level. President & CEO Robert Bruggeworth stated a successful internal Samsung baseband would be a positive for Qorvo. SVP of Sales and Marketing Dave Fullwood added that Qorvo's content in Samsung's next spring flagship would likely decline due to increased competition.

Chris Caso of Wolfe Research requested clarification on the comment regarding potential 'tariff related pull-ins' by customers, asking about the impact on inventory levels and the outlook for bit demand.

Answer

Chairman, President & CEO Sanjay Mehrotra clarified that while some tariff-related pull-ins may have occurred, the impact is considered 'relatively modest.' He stressed that customer inventory levels are healthy overall and that customers continue to signal a constructive demand environment for the remainder of the calendar year. He asserted that Micron's strong performance and outlook are fundamentally driven by solid execution in the growing AI market, not by inventory pull-ins.

Inquired about the company's exposure to legacy DRAM (DDR4/LP4) and its future margin impact, and asked about their ability to scale HBM capacity to meet a rising TAM and maintain market share in 2026.

Answer

The company confirmed legacy DRAM is about 10% of revenue and will become a smaller part of the business over time. They are confident in their ability to increase HBM capacity and expect their full-year 2026 HBM share to be higher than in 2025, aligning with their technology roadmap and customer relationships, though they did not provide a specific 2026 share projection.