Chris Hallam

Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs asked for an update on the completion status of the NDFI/Private Credit review following recent events, and whether the Investment Bank's 2028 business plan would be caveated as regulatory-dependent. He also questioned if the balance of outcomes on deregulation and capital headroom means Barclays has a 'plan for all seasons' for the Investment Bank.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, confirmed that the review of NDFI/Private Credit is completed, and he is satisfied with the findings, though vigilance will continue. Anna Cross, Group Finance Director, Barclays, acknowledged regulatory uncertainty and the desire for consistency across jurisdictions. She stated that the Investment Bank's strategy remains focused on driving higher, more consistent returns through stable income, gross efficiency savings (evidenced by six consecutive quarters of positive jaws), and capital efficiency. She emphasized focusing on controllable factors and navigating the regulatory environment as it emerges.

Chris Hallam followed up on the NDFI review, asking if it has been fully completed. He also questioned the Investment Bank's 2028 business plan, given the difficult regulatory backdrop, and whether it is contingent on regulatory outcomes or designed to be resilient across various scenarios.

Answer

CS Venkatakrishnan, Group Chief Executive, Barclays, confirmed that the NDFI review is completed, and he is satisfied with the findings, though vigilance will continue. Anna Cross, Group Finance Director, Barclays, acknowledged the regulatory uncertainty and the desire for consistent regulation across jurisdictions. She stated that the Investment Bank's strategy is to 'run its own race,' focusing on driving higher, more consistent returns through stable income, stabilizing intermediation and fees, cost efficiency (evidenced by six consecutive quarters of positive jaws), and capital efficiency. She emphasized focusing on controllable factors and navigating the regulatory environment as it emerges.

Chris Hallam asked about the Investment Bank's RWAs, questioning why they didn't decrease with FX movements this quarter and whether the current 56% of group RWAs represents a peak. He also asked about the slight dip in RWA productivity in Q2 and if the current level supports the RoTE target.

Answer

Group Finance Director Anna Cross explained that Investment Bank RWAs have been broadly flat for 3.5 years, with quarterly fluctuations reflecting client activity levels rather than a change in strategy. She stressed that RWA discipline and income growth are not mutually exclusive. She attributed the Q2 dip in RWA productivity to normal seasonality, highlighting the significant year-over-year improvement and the focus on generating consistent, high-quality returns.

Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs inquired if the bank's conservative banking wallet assumptions would necessitate changes to cost or investment plans. He also asked about trends in US transaction banking deposits after the quarter's end.

Answer

Executive Angela Cross responded that the bank's diversified income streams provide robustness, so the focus remains on cost discipline to achieve the ~61% cost-income ratio target without altering investment plans. Executive Coimbatore Venkatakrishnan noted that deposit growth reflects both increased client preference for Barclays and typical corporate caution in the current environment.

Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs sought clarification on the Commercial NII guidance, specifically regarding assumptions for savings rate cuts in H2 and whether ING targets a specific liability margin or reacts to competitors. He also asked about mortgage market share trends across ING's main markets.

Answer

CEO Steven van Rijswijk stated that mortgage growth is driven by making the right returns, not growth for its own sake, and noted an increasing market share in new production in The Netherlands. CFO Tanate Phutrakul reiterated that ING manages its commercial NII on margin and aims to maintain the liability NII margin at around 100 basis points for the year, supported by strong liquidity and deposit growth.

Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs asked for the split between loan and deposit growth in the 4% guidance and questioned if efficiency efforts needed to intensify to offset inflation, probing the changing expense mix.

Answer

Executive Steven van Rijswijk confirmed the 4% growth target applies to both lending and deposits. CFO Tanate Phutrakul acknowledged the inflation impact in 2025 but expects it to ease in subsequent years, highlighting specific efficiency gains in call centers and KYC processes that are enabling FTE reductions and operational scaling.

Chris Hallam asked if the lending pullback in Brazil is temporary, the specific trigger for the provision top-up, and whether the potential impact from the UK AXA legal case is material to the bank's CET1 capital walk.

Answer

CEO Héctor Grisi Checa confirmed the portfolio shift in Brazil is a temporary, flexible response to high interest rates and they will re-enter unsecured lending when the macro environment improves. CFO José García Cantera linked the provision timing to the CACEIS capital gain, calling it a prudent measure. Regarding the AXA case, the CEO stated they are appealing and do not expect a material net impact given existing provisions.

Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. asked about the phasing of Basel IV capital headwinds, specifically how much of the impact is from FRTB if its implementation is delayed. He also questioned the bank's strategic plans for its Argentina business in light of market distortions and a peer's exit.

Answer

CFO José García Cantera clarified that the FRTB impact is 10 basis points of the previously guided day-one impact, which would be postponed if the rule is delayed. CEO Héctor Grisi stated that the bank is keeping its options open in Argentina, noting the business is well-structured and performing well, and there are no plans to exit at this point.

Chris Hallam questioned the expected timeline and process for the Swiss capital proposals and asked about the receptiveness of stakeholders to the bank's view on the proposals' competitive impact.

Answer

Group CEO Sergio Ermotti described the regulatory debate as an unpredictable political process and stated UBS will not act on potential changes until the rules are finalized. He affirmed that the bank is using data to highlight the significant competitive disadvantage the proposals would create, which they believe is the most accurate way to frame the issue for stakeholders.

Chris Hallam asked for insights on discussions with the financial sponsor community and at what point UBS might reassess its 2026 banking revenue ambition. He also questioned the perceived risk of an "immediate and material" change to the regulatory regime.

Answer

Sergio Ermotti, Group Chief Executive Officer, noted that sponsors are in a "wait-and-see" mode but the transaction pipeline remains healthy. He said revenue ambitions would only change with a material shift in market conditions, not market share goals. Regarding regulation, he described the cautionary language as a prudent acknowledgment of a factor outside their control.

Chris Hallam questioned the integration progress, asking if the $1 billion increase in integration costs signaled the end of the "easy part," and sought clarity on the likelihood and timing of potential changes to the Swiss capital regime.

Answer

CEO Sergio Ermotti stated he has no special visibility on capital regime changes but reiterated that the share buyback is caveated on no material changes. CFO Todd Tuckner explained the increased integration cost is not due to complexity but reflects updated assumptions and new opportunities to unlock value, noting the cost-to-save multiplier remains very low.

Chris Hallam asked how recent market volatility impacts the path to the 2026 banking revenue target and questioned how to view the trajectory for the underlying return on CET1, given the strong first-half performance.

Answer

Executive Sergio Ermotti responded that the bank remains focused on its long-term momentum and is building a compelling mandate pipeline despite short-term volatility. Executive Todd Tuckner acknowledged the H1 underlying return on CET1 of 9.2% was "comfortably ahead" of the 2024 target and stated that any updates to 2025 guidance would be provided later in the year.

Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. asked about the outlook for Origination & Advisory (O&A) momentum into H2 and next year, given the strong M&A volume growth, particularly in Germany. He also requested an update on the outlook for credit loss provisions (CLPs) in U.S. Commercial Real Estate, especially on the West Coast.

Answer

CFO James von Moltke acknowledged the strong M&A environment in Germany presents a significant opportunity for the bank as the clear market leader. On U.S. CRE, he noted that the high Q2 provision was significantly impacted by a one-off LGD model update in Stage 2, while Stage 3 pressure remains concentrated on the West Coast due to ongoing valuation pressures on existing non-performing exposures.

Chris Hallam asked about Deutsche Bank's full-year revenue outlook given the strong Q1 but changing operating environment, and about the bank's confidence in its strategic positioning to capitalize on emerging geopolitical and economic trends.

Answer

CEO Christian Sewing expressed high confidence in achieving the EUR 32 billion full-year revenue target, citing the strong Q1 outperformance and the benefits of a diversified business model. He highlighted stable performance in the Private Bank and Asset Management, expected acceleration in the Corporate Bank, and market share gains in FIC. Sewing emphasized that the 'Global Hausbank' model is well-suited to navigate global volatility and capitalize on German fiscal stimulus and European capital markets initiatives.

Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs requested the latest total capital ratio impact from the Banco BPM stake and asked how the company would consider deploying excess capital if it were to release the capital tied to the BPM investment, especially in the context of formulating the new medium-term plan.

Answer

Executive Jerome Grivet estimated the total capital consumption of the 19.8% BPM stake is roughly 40-45 bps of CET1 ratio for CASA, though it varies with the share price and internal allocation of the deduction franchise. Regarding excess capital, Grivet stated it is too early to discuss potential uses, and that such decisions would be addressed during the presentation of the new medium-term plan at year-end.

Chris Hallam requested the latest total capital ratio impact from the Banco BPM stake and asked how the bank would consider deploying excess capital if the stake were to be sold.

Answer

Executive Jerome Grivet estimated the total capital consumption from the 19.8% Banco BPM stake to be approximately 40-45 basis points of CET1 for CASA, noting it varies with the share price. Regarding the deployment of potential excess capital, he stated that it was premature to discuss and that capital allocation strategy would be addressed in the next Medium-Term Plan.

Chris Hallam from Goldman Sachs inquired about the outlook for the Italian business regarding volumes and margins, and asked about the bank's confidence in its M&A and integration processes.

Answer

Executive Jerome Grivet expressed a positive outlook for Italy, noting that while pricing is competitive, the bank can remain selective to achieve growth while protecting margins. On M&A, he conveyed high confidence in the bank's seasoned team for deal execution, emphasizing that the key to success is ensuring management has the dedication and bandwidth to oversee each integration properly.

Chris Hallam asked if the slowdown in home loan production, relative to the market, was a deliberate strategic decision to prioritize pricing over volume, given the strong profitability in other parts of the group.

Answer

Jerome Grivet, an executive, firmly denied any deliberate slowdown or strategic arbitrage. He explained that the year-over-year comparison appears unfavorable because Crédit Agricole continued lending in Q1 2023 when many competitors had stopped, creating a more demanding comparison base. He asserted that the group's market share of outstanding home loans is likely at a peak.

Asked if the Investment Bank is starting to de-emphasize DCM given the RWA reduction, and whether £750 million should be considered a floor for financing revenues. He also questioned how Barclays plans to improve the lower asset productivity of the acquired Tesco Bank business.

Answer

The executive clarified they are not de-emphasizing DCM but are being prudent with capital allocation based on total client relationships, and declined to set a floor for financing revenues. For Tesco, the short-term focus is on integration and customer service, with RoTE accretion expected over time from efficiency and funding benefits.

Inquired about the sustainability of the strong Q2 revenue from the Prime Brokerage business and whether the bank views the growth of private credit as an opportunity or a threat for its asset management business.

Answer

The company stated that the Q2 performance in Equities and Prime Services had no one-offs and reflects the strength of the now-completed platform, although global market businesses are inherently volatile. They view private credit as an opportunity rather than a threat, which they will pursue through both in-house asset management capabilities and partnerships.

Asked about the cost trajectory in Global Markets, questioning if the low Q1 cost base changes the seasonal pattern. Also inquired about BNL's credit costs, asking what is driving them lower and if the improved profitability changes capital allocation strategy for the Italian unit.

Answer

Global Markets costs are variable, and the impact of the new EUR 400 million savings plan will be seen going forward. BNL's lower cost of risk is a result of a strategic reorientation of the business, which is compensating for lower volumes and leading to a significant improvement in returns, validating the current strategy.

Inquired about the phasing of the remaining capital deployment and the rationale for classifying certain items as 'extraordinary', questioning if future adaptation costs would receive similar treatment.

Answer

The remaining capital will be deployed progressively through 2024 and 2025, with a shift towards bolt-on acquisitions, which takes more time. The 'extraordinary' classification was used for legacy litigation on very old, discontinued portfolios where the final negative outcome became clear in late 2023; this was a specific case to protect the shareholder payout and is not a new standard for all adaptation costs.

Requested quantification of the NII headwinds in Belgium, asked how close FICC revenues are to a normalized level, and inquired about asset management flows in early Q4.

Answer

The executive quantified the Belgian NII headwind at around EUR 200 million annually until Q3 2024 due to deposit outflows to government bonds. FICC revenues are considered to be at a normalized level now, after an exceptionally strong prior-year quarter. The bank declined to give forward-looking guidance on short-term asset flows.