Chris McGratty's questions to OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ (ONB) leadership • Q3 2025
Question
Chris McGratty questioned the company's capital management strategy, specifically the tension between growing CET1 and returning capital, given the 11% CET1 ratio and the potential for significant capital build even with buybacks. He asked if 11% is the 'right number' for CET1, implying it might be higher than peers. He also asked if NII is expected to grow from the Q4 base into 2026, assuming low single-digit loan growth.
Answer
CEO Jim Ryan acknowledged the healthy tension in capital allocation, considering shareholders, ratings agencies, and economic conditions. He suggested there are opportunities for the CET1 ratio to come down over time and for substantially more buybacks in future periods, but the company is not ready to commit to that yet, expecting a slight capital build in the near term for more clarity. CFO John Moran confirmed that NII is expected to grow into 2026, with margins stable-ish, depending on yield curve dynamics, and noted that steepening of the yield curve would be beneficial.