Chris Nicholson

Chris Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley questioned the current situation in Ghana, specifically if royalties on Tarkwa are expected to be lifted and if 10% government ownership is part of the lease renewal negotiations. He also asked for the 2026 capital expenditure forecast for the Australian region.

Answer

CEO Mike Fraser confirmed the royalty bill is before Parliament and expected to pass, but Tarkwa's current lease provides stability until April 2027. He noted ongoing discussions with the government about value sharing, acknowledging the pragmatism needed given the new royalty rates, and that the 10% ownership is part of the broader debate. CFO Alex Dall detailed significant CapEx increases in Australia for 2026, including Gruyere (+$150M for 100% consolidation), Granny Smith (+$100M for infrastructure), Agnew (+$50M for tailings/paste plant), and St Ives (AUD50M for Invincible complex), pushing the total close to $1 billion with a stronger Australian dollar.

Chris Nicholson asked about the current situation in Ghana, specifically if the royalty bill before Parliament is expected to lift royalties on Tarkwa, and whether 10% government ownership is a factor in the ongoing lease renewal negotiations. He also requested the capital expenditure for the Australian region in 2026, following approximately $600 million spent in 2025.

Answer

CEO Mike Fraser confirmed the royalty bill is expected to pass into law soon, but Tarkwa's current lease provides stability until April 2027. He noted that the 10% government ownership is part of broader discussions with the Ghanaian government about value sharing, acknowledging that while new royalties are likely, there's pragmatism about the overall package. CFO Alex Dall detailed significant CapEx increases for Australia in 2026, including $150 million for Gruyere (due to 100% consolidation), nearly $100 million for Granny Smith (ventilation, cooling, power upgrades), $50 million for Agnew (tailings, paste plant, ventilation), and AUD 50 million for St Ives (Invincible complex, materials handling), pushing the total well over $1 billion.

Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley sought clarity on the expected total CapEx for Salares Norte for the year, how group capital guidance remains unchanged despite higher spending there, and whether increased spending at Tarkwa and in Australia would persist into 2026.

Answer

CFO Alex Dall clarified that Salares Norte's CapEx is expected to decrease significantly in the second half. He explained that group guidance is maintained because some spending at Damang was reclassified as operating expenditure and certain Windfall costs were reclassified as exploration expenses. He also confirmed that the accelerated stripping program at Tarkwa is expected to continue into 2026.

Questioned the higher-than-guided CapEx at Salares Norte, how the overall group capital guidance remains unchanged, and whether increased spending on stripping and infrastructure will continue into 2026.

Answer

Salares Norte CapEx is expected to decrease significantly in the second half, with the final amount depending on the timing of commercial production declaration. Group guidance is maintained due to offsetting reclassifications of expenses at Damang and Windfall from capital to operating. The accelerated stripping program at Tarkwa is expected to continue into 2026.

Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley asked about capital expenditure, seeking clarity on the final 2025 CapEx for Salares, where spending was reduced to maintain group guidance, and if higher spending in Australia and at Tarkwa would continue into 2026.

Answer

Alex Dall, CFO, explained that Salares CapEx will decrease in H2 and group guidance is maintained due to reclassifications of some Damang and Windfall spending to opex. He also confirmed that the accelerated stripping program at Tarkwa is expected to continue into 2026.

Chris Nicholson of Morgan Stanley asked for clarification on the IRA credits, specifically if they are all cash or include tax offsets, and whether the recycling business would need to share these credits with customers. He also inquired about the in-house capacity to process Rustenburg and Kroondal concentrate.

Answer

Charl Keyter, CFO, and Pieter Henning, SVP - Finance, clarified that the IRA credit is initially cash and later a saleable tax offset, and that recycling customers do not have a claim to it. Richard Stewart, CEO Designate, confirmed that Sibanye has the operational capacity to process the concentrate in-house if the current tolling agreement is not renewed, although they continue to engage with their partner for a value-accretive solution.

Asked about the funding strategy for the upcoming Rhyolite Ridge payment and other potential acquisitions, specifically whether equity would be used. Also inquired about the financial outlook for the New Century zinc operation, including its path to profitability and required zinc price for breakeven.

Answer

The company will not use equity for acquisitions at current valuations; the Rhyolite Ridge payment will be phased over two years and funded by earnings and debt. Underperforming assets across the portfolio are under review and may be placed on care and maintenance if they don't improve. The New Century zinc operation is expected to be breakeven at consensus zinc prices.

Chris Nicholson inquired about the discrepancy between rising gas volume guidance from Mozambique and the downward revision of total recoverable gas volumes in the impairment calculation. He also asked for an update on the CTT power plant in Mozambique and commented on the rising condensate-to-gas ratio, a potential sign of well depletion.

Answer

CFO Walt Bruns clarified that the Mozambique impairment was primarily driven by a significantly higher WACC rate due to increased country risk premium, not just volume changes. EVP of Operations and Projects Victor Bester added that while the CTT power plant project is significantly delayed due to contractor issues, Sasol intends to operate the related Integrated Processing Facility (IPF) and find commercial solutions to ensure gas flow.

Chris Nicholson of RMB Morgan Stanley asked about the cost premium for purchased coal, the source and potential impact of additional gas for Secunda, and whether the Secunda Synfuels impairment assumptions include a return to historical production levels.

Answer

CFO Hanré Rossouw confirmed the coal premium is for higher quality and expects it to normalize as Sasol's productivity improves. President and CEO Fleetwood Grobler stated the goal is to return Secunda to higher output, noting that additional gas from Mozambique provides flexibility to mitigate gasifier issues and can unlock 100,000-150,000 tons of production. Executive VP, Energy, Priscillah Mabelane added that increased well stock in Mozambique provides this flexibility. Grobler clarified a clear future output target is pending further assessment.

Chris Nicholson of Morgan Stanley questioned the significant cost inflation in the mining business, asking if it was a one-off re-basement and how it reconciled with new, more productive mines coming online. He also asked about growth plans in China, particularly the expansion of oxalate capacity.

Answer

CFO Paul Victor clarified that the mining cost increase was a one-off event related to a prolonged strike and operational issues, and that management is focused on restoring normal productivity levels. CEO Stephen Cornell explained that while Sasol is not pursuing coal-to-liquids projects outside Southern Africa, it is actively looking at chemical growth in Asia. The new oxalate plant in China is intended to replace an older, less efficient facility.