Chris Robertson

Chris Robertson inquired about the underlying demand and ton-mile expansion dynamics in the iron ore market, specifically from Brazil and West Africa, and whether similar geographical dispersion-driven ton-mile stability or expansion is observed in other dry bulk commodities. He also asked about infrastructure projects in West Africa to alleviate future congestion.

Answer

Constantinos Simantiras (Deputy Chief Investment Officer and Head of Research) highlighted strong grain trade from Brazil and potential coal ton-mile increases if Indonesia cuts exports, in addition to bauxite and iron ore. He noted a 30% increase in Supramax/Ultramax calls in West Africa. Charis Plakantonaki (Chief Strategy Officer) added that West African congestion is expected to rise short-term but gradually decrease over several years as infrastructure improves.

Chris Robertson asked about dry bulk commodities, beyond iron ore and bauxite, that exhibit similar ton-mile expansion dynamics where underlying demand might be flat or weaker but geographical dispersion supports stable or increased ton-mile demand. He also inquired about infrastructure development in West Africa and its potential impact on port congestion.

Answer

Constantinos Simantiras, Deputy Chief Investment Officer and Head of Research, highlighted strong grain trade from Brazil contributing to ton-miles and potential increases in coal ton-miles if Indonesian exports decline. Charis Plakantonaki, Chief Strategy Officer, added that while West Africa might see short-term congestion increases due to construction projects, infrastructure upgrades over several years are expected to alleviate this.

Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank inquired about Star Bulk Carriers' expected net change in debt for 2026, considering new financings for eight newbuilding assets and planned amortization. He also asked for clarification on the dividend policy's minimum cash balance calculation, specifically if it accounts for the pro forma fleet size after newbuilding deliveries, and sought insights into the drivers behind the strong sub-cape segment rates.

Answer

Hamish Norton (VP, Star Bulk Carriers) clarified that amortization would remain around $50-$52 million per quarter in 2026, with new facilities having a 17-year amortization profile. He also stated that the $2.1 million per ship minimum cash balance for dividends is calculated based on the current fleet size, not pro forma, and the company's cash balance is significantly above this threshold. Petros Pappas (CEO, Star Bulk Carriers) attributed strong sub-cape rates to a spillover effect from larger vessels, an 11% improvement in grain trade, strong coal performance in Q3, healthy minor trade for Supramax, and urgency in cargo ordering due to tariff uncertainties.

Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank inquired about Star Bulk Carriers' projected net debt change in 2026, specifically regarding newbuilding financings and planned amortization. He also asked for clarification on the dividend policy's minimum cash balance calculation relative to fleet size and the drivers behind strong sub-cape segment rates.

Answer

Vice President Hamish Norton clarified that $130 million in financing is secured for five newbuildings, with discussions ongoing for three others. He projected quarterly amortization to remain around $50-$52 million in 2026 due to refinancing and long-term newbuilding amortization profiles. Regarding the dividend policy, Mr. Norton stated the $2.1 million per ship minimum cash balance is based on the current fleet, not pro forma, and the company's cash position far exceeds this threshold. CEO Petros Pappas added that newbuilding equity CapEx is covered by past vessel sales. Mr. Pappas also explained that strong sub-cape rates are driven by a spillover from larger vessels, robust Q3 grain and coal trade, and healthy minor bulk demand, alongside potential tariff-related cargo ordering urgency.

Chris Robertson asked for an assessment of Sinokor Merchant Marine's impact on the VLCC segment, specifically whether its influence is enduring or fleeting, and inquired about the potential for further industry consolidation in both crude and refined product sectors.

Answer

Lois Zabrocky, President and CEO, stated that Sinokor's consolidation of legitimate VLCC tonnage represents a fundamental and enduring shift in the highly fragmented ownership base, offering strength to the market. She also noted that customers are increasingly recognizing the need for access to tonnage, which structurally drives demand and supports further consolidation.

Chris Robertson asked for International Seaways' assessment of Sinokor Merchant Marine's impact on the VLCC segment, specifically whether its influence is enduring or fleeting. He also inquired about the potential for further industry consolidation in both crude and refined product sectors.

Answer

President and CEO Lois Zabrocky characterized Sinokor's consolidation of legitimate VLCC tonnage as a 'true strength' and a 'fundamental shift' with 'staying power,' particularly in light of numerous sanctioned vessels. She anticipates further industry consolidation, noting that charterers are increasingly seeking to secure access to vessels, which drives demand for owners.

Chris Robertson asked about the redeployment expectations for the Express FSRU (initially misidentified as Exquisite), specifically whether it would remain with the same counterparty at improved terms or if new inbound inquiries from other regions were being considered. He also sought commentary on Excelerate Energy's broader opportunities, particularly on the power side (gas turbines, natural gas power plants), and how these are being integrated into their approach, following the Jamaica integration.

Answer

Steven Kobos, President and CEO, clarified that it was the Express FSRU and expressed high confidence in recontracting it at an uplift, similar to previous legacy assets, with ongoing global discussions. Regarding power opportunities, Kobos stated that Excelerate evaluates them based on advantages in pull-through demand and contract duration, especially in the Global South where power demand is rapidly increasing, leveraging their experience from Jamaica.

Chris Robertson asked about the expectations for the redeployment of the Express FSRU, specifically if it would remain with the same counterparty at improved terms or if there were inbound inquiries from other regions. He also inquired about Excelerate Energy's opportunities on the power side, including gas turbines and natural gas power plants, and their integrated approach.

Answer

Steven Kobos, President and CEO, corrected the vessel name to Express FSRU and expressed confidence in recontracting it at an EBITDA uplift, similar to past legacy contracts, with global discussions ongoing. He stated that Excelerate Energy would evaluate power assets if they provide an advantage in pull-through demand or contract duration, leveraging their operational experience in Jamaica and linking it to growing power demand in the Global South.

Chris Robertson asked about the continued activity of Chinese buyers in the dry bulk S&P market and the current state of geopolitical disruptions, specifically the Red Sea and Russia-Ukraine conflict, and their potential impact on dry bulk shipping if reversed.

Answer

John C. Wobensmith, Chairman and CEO of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, confirmed that Chinese buyers remain very active, particularly for older assets, viewing this as a positive indicator for the market. Regarding geopolitical events, Mr. Wobensmith stated that a full reopening of the Black Sea (post-Russia-Ukraine conflict) would be a net positive for dry bulk due to increased grain and iron ore volumes. He noted that while Genco remains cautious about the Red Sea, its impact on dry bulk shipping is minimal (1-2% of ships) compared to the container sector.

Chris Robertson inquired about the continued trend of Chinese buyers in the dry bulk S&P market and the primary drivers of asset sales. He also asked for Genco's assessment of geopolitical disruptions, such as the Red Sea and Russia-Ukraine conflicts, on dry bulk shipping and the potential impact of any reversals.

Answer

John C. Wobensmith, Chairman and CEO of Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, confirmed that Chinese buyers remain highly active, particularly for older assets, viewing this as a positive indicator for the market. Regarding geopolitical factors, Mr. Wobensmith stated that a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a full reopening of the Black Sea would be a net positive for dry bulk due to increased grain and iron ore volumes. He noted that while some container companies are transiting the Red Sea, Genco remains cautious; however, the Red Sea disruption has a minimal impact on dry bulk (1-2% of ships) compared to the container sector.

Chris Robertson asked about the market for naphtha imports into Venezuela as a diluent for crude, and also sought an update on global product inventory levels, specifically if they were remaining low or starting to pick up in OECD regions.

Answer

Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer, stated that naphtha imports into Venezuela are not a significant market driver for Atlantic Basin MRs, but rather an 'additional positive.' James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations, explained that U.S. Distillate inventories are below the five-year average and declining due to cold weather and maintenance, while OECD inventories are relatively in line. He noted no significant product inventory builds, which is constructive, and crude oversupply is less than anticipated.

Chris Robertson asked about the impact of naphtha imports into Venezuela as a diluent on the Atlantic Basin MR market, and sought an update on global product inventory levels, specifically in OECD and U.S. distillate markets.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Lars Dencker Nielsen stated that naphtha imports into Venezuela are not a primary driver for the Atlantic Basin MR market, but rather an 'additional positive' factor. Head of Corporate Development and Investor Relations James Doyle noted U.S. distillate inventories are below the five-year average and declining, with OECD inventories relatively in line, and mentioned that crude oversupply forecasts haven't materialized due to sanctioned crude on water, indicating strong global demand.

Chris Robertson at Deutsche Bank asked about Venture Global's projected path to achieving 24% above nameplate capacity across its facilities, specifically whether this will occur through steady increases or step changes, and the potential implications for O&M expenses. He also inquired about the company's evolving contracting strategy, moving towards flexible cargo agreements across its entire portfolio rather than being tied to specific projects.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel indicated that the increase to 24% above nameplate capacity will be a combination of step changes and steady increases, without disclosing specific intellectual property. He noted that adding extra trains does not materially impact O&M expenses, viewing it as almost entirely upside margin. He confirmed that with over 100 million tons of annual production projected, Venture Global will have immense flexibility to offer portfolio-sale type structures with fixed delivery dates, leveraging its cost and price advantage to provide attractive commodity prices years sooner than competitors.

Chris Robertson asked about the timeline and nature (steady vs. step changes) of reaching 24% above nameplate capacity for CP2, the implications for O&M expenses, and the evolution of Venture Global's contracting strategy towards flexible cargo agreements across its portfolio.

Answer

CEO Michael Sabel indicated the capacity increase would be a combination of step changes and steady growth, without disclosing specific details, and confirmed that adding extra trains would not materially impact operating expenses. He affirmed Venture Global is moving towards flexible cargo agreements across its portfolio, leveraging its growing production capacity to offer attractive and flexible supply structures.

Chris Robertson from Deutsche Bank questioned whether the company is considering strategic alternatives given its current share price and asked for clarification on remaining CapEx for Gimi and any expected for the CESA JV.

Answer

CEO Karl Fredrik Staubo affirmed management's focus is on operations, while Chairman Tor Olav Trøim added that the board sees significant undervaluation and will act to unlock value if it persists, though they are not actively selling the company. CFO Eduardo Maranhão stated there is no material remaining CapEx for Gimi expected in Q2.