Christian Carlino

Christian Carlino asked about same SKU inflation in U.S. NAPA, expectations for incremental pricing in U.S. NAPA and Motion, and when the full run rate of tariffs would impact sales and at what inflation level. He also questioned potential dis-synergies if GPC's two businesses operated separately, covering purchasing, shared corporate costs, and other details.

Answer

Executive Vice President and CFO Bert Nappier stated that the full run rate of inflation, including tariff impacts, was likely reached by the end of Q3, expecting a low single-digit top-line and cost of goods sold impact for the rest of the year, with a slight net benefit. He considered discussions about dis-synergies hypothetical, emphasizing the benefits of 'one GPC' through procurement leverage and shared technology investments like the Poland Tech Center.

Christian Carlino asked for details on same SKU inflation in U.S. NAPA, the outlook for incremental pricing in both U.S. NAPA and Motion over the next few quarters, and when the full run rate of tariffs would be reflected in sales and at what inflation level. He also questioned the potential dis-synergies if the automotive and industrial businesses were to operate separately, particularly concerning purchasing, shared corporate costs, and other operational details.

Answer

Bert Nappier, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, indicated that the full run rate of inflation, including tariff impacts, was likely achieved by the end of Q3, expecting a low single-digit sales benefit and a low single-digit increase to cost of goods sold for the remainder of the year. Regarding dis-synergies, Bert Nappier and Will Stengel, President and Chief Executive Officer, emphasized the benefits of the 'one GPC' strategy, citing procurement leverage and shared technology investments, such as the Poland Tech Center and DC automation, as examples where combined operations yield greater efficiency and quality, rather than speculating on hypothetical splits.

Christian Carlino, on for Christopher Horvers, asked about the drivers for the improved comparable sales in the Motion (Industrial) business and whether customers were pausing or accelerating capital projects. He also inquired about U.S. NAPA trends in markets with competitor closures and the reasons for slower performance among independent owners.

Answer

CEO William Stengel explained that the Motion business saw encouraging activity in capital-related projects and strength in corporate and local MRO accounts, reflecting a destocking cycle ending. Regarding U.S. NAPA, he noted varied dynamics in markets with competitor changes and saw sequential improvement with independent owners toward the end of the quarter, attributing some choppiness to market dynamics.

Christian Carlino from JPMorgan inquired about the competitive response to tariffs, potential market share gains, and whether a specific gross margin headwind from tariffs is factored into H2 guidance.

Answer

CEO Shane O'Kelly and CFO Ryan Grimsland characterized the industry's response to tariffs as rational, with peers also taking price actions. Grimsland confirmed that low to mid-single-digit inflation is expected in H2, driven by tariffs, and that the guidance range embeds various scenarios for consumer elasticity, but he did not quantify a discrete headwind.

Christian Carlino inquired if Holley is gaining market share or shelf space as a result of taking less price than competitors. He also asked about the outlook for gross margins in the second half of the year, considering the full impact of tariff costs, and whether the company anticipates more intense promotional activity.

Answer

CFO Jesse Weaver confirmed that key indicators suggest Holley is continuing to take market share, with its out-the-door growth at distribution partners outperforming their overall business. He stated that the company does not plan for incremental promotional activity in the back half and anticipates maintaining or even increasing gross margins, supported by recent pricing actions. He noted the full-year guidance already accounts for the expected margin profile.

Christian Carlino of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about Holley's ability to gain market share amidst tariff challenges, given its sourcing mix versus peers. He also inquired about the market feedback from distribution partners on the company's recent price increase.

Answer

CEO Matt Stevenson stated that Holley's broad product portfolio and significant U.S.-based production position it well to take market share from competitors who are more reliant on Asian sourcing. Stevenson added that distribution partners have responded positively to Holley's blended 8.75% price increase, viewing it as a fair approach compared to some competitors who have implemented increases as high as 30% on specific categories.

Christian Carlino of Stifel inquired about the growth opportunity in Mexico, including market size and vehicle demographics, and asked for details on the gross margin performance in Q4 and its expected cadence for 2025.

Answer

Executive Matthew Stevenson described Mexico as a $3-5 billion enthusiast market with an older car park and strong truck modification trends, which Holley is now accessing via direct-to-distributor relationships. Executive Jesse Weaver explained that the Q4 gross margin improvement was driven by sustainable cost-to-serve efforts, lapping prior-year purchasing headwinds, and a better D2C mix. He noted that the 2025 gross margin profile would be more balanced throughout the year.

Christian Carlino asked about Holley's exposure to China, including the percentage of COGS affected by tariffs, and questioned the drivers behind the 12% sales growth in the national retailer channel.

Answer

CEO Matt Stevenson explained that the company has been actively working on resourcing and reducing tariff impacts for over a year through its cost-to-serve initiative and feels well-positioned. He added that the growth in national retailers is a significant future opportunity, driven by a new strategic focus on partnering with them for product placement, an area previously not prioritized by the organization.

Christian Carlino of JPMorgan asked about changes in consumer behavior amid tariff news and whether guidance assumes further softening, and also inquired about the competitive landscape for Take 5, including private equity interest.

Answer

President & CEO Danny Rivera stated there were no material changes in consumer behavior beyond previously noted softness in collision and with lower-income consumers. EVP & CFO Mike Diamond confirmed the guidance range reflects this uncertainty. Rivera added that the competitive landscape for quick lubes has been stable, as scaling the business is 'harder than it looks,' which has limited new entrants.

Christian Carlino asked if competitors in the quick lube space were becoming more price-competitive and inquired about the risk of consumers trading down from Take 5's premium service to other channels due to inflation.

Answer

EVP and COO Danny Rivera responded that there have been no material changes in the competitive pricing environment. He addressed the trade-down risk by highlighting Take 5's strong value proposition—a unique, convenient 10-minute service with high customer satisfaction—and stated that performance data shows no evidence of customers shifting to other channels.

Christian Carlino asked why Autoglass Now is not a standalone segment, sought to bridge the gap from the prior $850M EBITDA target to the current outlook, and questioned the implied flat margins in 2025 guidance.

Answer

President & CEO Jonathan Fitzpatrick explained the prior $850M target is no longer relevant due to portfolio changes like divestitures. EVP & CFO Michael Diamond added that Autoglass Now is being incubated in 'Corporate and Other' due to its current size. Regarding 2025 margins, he described the guidance as 'appropriately prudent' given the macro environment and potential tariff impacts, which they have some ability to price for.

Christian Carlino from JPMorgan asked about the reasons for the decline in Maintenance segment franchise AUVs in Q3. He also inquired about the progress of the glass business, asking what inning the 'turnaround' was in and what operational changes remained.

Answer

COO Danny Rivera explained the franchise AUV decline was a mathematical result of a smaller store base with a higher mix of new, ramping locations, not a performance issue. CEO Jonathan Fitzpatrick rejected the 'turnaround' label for the glass business, stating it is now the #2 player in the U.S. and the focus has shifted entirely from integration to driving top-line growth.

Christian Carlino from JPMorgan asked about the balance between member count growth and revenue per member in the updated guidance, and whether the guidance revision was driven by the retail or membership business. He also inquired about the drivers of the implied margin expansion in the second half of the year.

Answer

CFO Jedidiah Gold clarified that the guidance revision was driven entirely by softness in the retail business, not membership. He noted that revenue per member is the primary driver of UWC comp growth. For the second half, Gold attributed the expected margin expansion to lapping the Q2 marketing spend pull-forward and ongoing cost optimization initiatives, which gain leverage as sales improve.

Christian Carlino asked why some previously planned store openings were removed from the 2025 pipeline under the new 'surgical' approach and what this means for long-term growth. He also asked about the high-level industry implications of slowing openings and competitor distress.

Answer

CEO John Lai explained that the pipeline was reassessed against a more competitive backdrop, and they tightened criteria to ensure a higher success rate. CFO Jed Gold added that some sites were removed after rescoring, while others were simply delayed into 2026 due to permitting. Lai predicted long-term regional consolidation into 3-5 dominant players, with Mister Car Wash well-positioned to be one of them and capitalize on M&A opportunities.

Christian Carlino asked for management's sense of the overall car wash market growth and Mister Car Wash's relative performance. He also inquired about the sustainable level of wage growth for the company over time.

Answer

Executive John Lai commented that the pace of new competitor openings is receding but did not have insight into their performance. On wages, executive Jedidiah Gold stated that Q3 wage inflation was 4.3%, below the 6% they had modeled, and expects a similar rate in Q4. He emphasized that competitive pay is a key part of their strategy to retain top talent.

Christian Carlino of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the potential impact of a 145% China tariff on toy spending, current conversations with retailers, and how cost pressures are being shared across the supply chain.

Answer

CEO Chris Cocks compared the potential consumer spending impact to the 2008-2009 recession, noting the toy category's historical resilience. CFO & COO Gina Goetter described retailer conversations as fluid, with active discussions on inventory phasing but no major order cancellations. Cocks added that Hasbro's domestic sourcing provides a buffer and they are observing a shift from direct import to domestic shipments, which affects order timing.