Christian Getzoff

Christian Getzoff inquired about the underlying loss ratio guidance for 2026, specifically how the change in the catastrophe definition threshold from $5 million to $10 million impacts the 55% forecast compared to 2025's 54.4%, and if there's a new catastrophe load managed for each segment. He also asked why Hamilton opted for a special dividend over increased share buybacks, given the share price relative to book value, and if this indicates a more modest level of buybacks in 2026. Finally, he questioned the moderating growth of the Hamilton Select platform and if increased competition is being observed on the casualty side.

Answer

Craig Howie (CFO and Chief Investment Officer, Hamilton Insurance Group) explained that the majority of the increase in the 2026 attritional loss ratio guidance to 55% is due to the threshold change, with catastrophe losses expected to remain in the 6%-7% range. Regarding capital allocation, Mr. Howie stated that Hamilton has the flexibility for both special dividends and share buybacks, confirming continued buybacks with $178 million remaining under authorization. Pina Albo (CEO, Hamilton Insurance Group) clarified that Hamilton Select's growth is in line with expectations, with robust pricing in excess casualty and contractors/small business, while competition is increasing in professional lines. She also mentioned the upcoming launch of a new property offering in the smaller to mid-size market.

Christian Getzoff inquired about the 2026 underlying loss ratio guidance, specifically how it would appear without the catastrophe definition change, and asked about the new catastrophe load for each segment. He also questioned the rationale behind a special dividend versus increased share buybacks, given the share price relative to book value, and sought insights into competition on the casualty side for the E&S Select platform.

Answer

Craig Howie, Group Chief Financial Officer, clarified that the 55% attritional loss ratio guidance for 2026 primarily reflects the threshold change from $5 million to $10 million, with catastrophe losses expected to be 6-7%. He explained that the special dividend provides a quick and effective way to return excess capital after a record year, while still maintaining flexibility for share repurchases, with $178 million remaining under authorization. Pina Albo, Group Chief Executive Officer, noted that Hamilton Select's growth aligns with expectations, driven by robust pricing in excess casualty and small business, while increased competition in professional lines led to reduced writings in that area.

Christian Getzoff asked about the rate environment in casualty and property relative to loss trends, and whether the company's mix is expected to continue shifting towards casualty in 2026. He also inquired about the runway for Project Heartland's distribution expansion and its contribution to premium growth.

Answer

Chris Schenk, President and Chief Underwriting Officer, stated that the casualty rating environment remains strong with rates above trend, and property rates are adequate due to a differentiated playing field. He confirmed the casualty mix target range of 60-70%, with the current quarter at 67%. Regarding Project Heartland, Mr. Schenk noted they are nearing the end of the partner appointment phase and beginning to focus on increasing wallet share, seeing a significant runway for growth with a new branded product. Justin Cohen, CEO, also contributed to the Project Heartland response.

Christian Getzoff inquired about the rate environment in casualty and property lines relative to loss trends, and whether Ategrity expects its business mix to continue shifting towards casualty in 2026. He also asked for quantification of Project Heartland's runway for distribution expansion and its contribution to premium growth.

Answer

Chris Schenk, President and Chief Underwriting Officer, stated that casualty rates remain strong and above trend, with flexibility to protect renewals. For property, Ategrity operates in a differentiated market, securing required rates above trend. He confirmed the target casualty mix range of 60-70%. Regarding Project Heartland, Mr. Schenk noted the initiative is shifting from adding partners to gaining wallet share, with significant growth runway, including a new branded product, but did not quantify specific premium contributions.

Christian Getzoff asked for a quantification of the difference in underlying combined ratio between Kinsale's commercial property division and the rest of its business, seeking to understand potential deterioration from business mix shift, noting property's shrinking share. He also inquired about the opportunity data centers present for Kinsale, whether they are currently writing this business, and general market conditions for data center insurance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Michael Kehoe stated that specific combined ratio quantification by division could not be provided on the call, directing to the upcoming 10-K and statutory statements for detailed accident year loss data. He emphasized Kinsale's conservative loss reserving practices and historical favorable reserve development. Chief Underwriter Stuart Winston clarified that data centers are not a meaningful part of Kinsale's book, as the required limits for such placements are not competitive for their business model.

Christian Getzoff asked for quantification of the underlying combined ratio difference between commercial property and other business segments, and potential deterioration from mix shift. He also inquired about Kinsale's opportunity in data centers, current writing of this business, and market conditions.

Answer

Michael Kehoe, Chairman and CEO, stated specific quantification wasn't available on the call but would be in the upcoming 10-K and statutory statements, emphasizing Kinsale's conservative reserving. Stuart Winston, Chief Underwriter, noted data centers are not a meaningful part of their business due to required limits not aligning with their competitive position.

Christian Getzoff with Wells Fargo asked for more details on AXIS Capital's mid- to high single-digit growth guide for insurance, including assumptions on the rate environment and expected growth from new product offerings. He also inquired about the early performance and growth impact of the Rak Re vehicle in the quarter. Getzoff then questioned the elevated paid and incurred trends (low 90s%), seeking insight into future expectations with mix shift and other potential improvement drivers. Finally, he asked if a more normalized hiring pattern should be expected in 2026 compared to 2025, given the upfront investments in new underwriting teams.

Answer

President and CEO Vince Tizzio explained that the insurance business enters 2026 without material reshaping, benefiting from premium adequate new and expanded lines, which contributed about $150 million to Q4 growth. He expressed optimism for sustained growth from these new revenue streams. CFO Pete Vogt noted that Rak Re contributed around $20 million in gross written premiums in Q4, with most written premiums expected in 2026-2028 and earned premiums in 2026-2029. Regarding paid and incurred trends, Vince Tizzio stated that while attentive, the ratio is not alarming, attributing the year-over-year decrease to lower catastrophe losses in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024. He highlighted investments in claims, actuarial, and underwriting to manage outcomes. On hiring, Vince Tizzio indicated that AXIS would remain strategic, with scheduled hires for 2026, but would not reveal specific numbers, emphasizing discretion to optimize productivity and alignment with strategy.

Christian Getzoff with Wells Fargo Securities asked for more color on the path to achieving mid-to-high single-digit growth in the insurance segment, including assumptions on the rate environment and growth from new product offerings. He also inquired about the early performance and growth impact of the AXIS Capacity Solutions (ACS) vehicle, the expected trajectory of paid and incurred trends, and whether 2026 would see a more normalized hiring pattern.

Answer

President and CEO Vince Tizzio explained that insurance growth is driven by premium-adequate new and expanded lines, which contributed approximately $150 million in Q4 2025, and that AXIS has a long runway for continued execution. CFO Pete Vogt noted that ACS booked around $20 million in gross written premiums in Q4 2025, with most impact expected in 2026-2029. Vince Tizzio stated that paid and incurred trends are viewed in a broader context, not alarming, and influenced by mix shift and catastrophe losses. He also indicated that AXIS would remain strategic in hiring, with scheduled teams for 2026, but not necessarily a 'normalized' pattern.

Christian Getzoff asked what market conditions, such as a large CAT event or reduced capacity, would be needed to moderate rate decreases in the property market, and how much of the current competition is irrational. He also questioned the evolving competitive dynamics in the personal umbrella market, especially with larger carriers focusing on bundling, and the impact of Florida's surplus lines documentation changes and general tort reform on submission volumes and loss consortiums.

Answer

Jen Klobnak (COO) stated that less capacity, potentially from a large CAT event or a shift in investment opportunities, would benefit the property market, noting that some MGA competition is aggressive due to misaligned interests. For personal umbrella, she acknowledged increased competition but emphasized RLI's strong embedded relationships, product value, and ongoing rate increases. Regarding Florida, Jen Klobnak mentioned RLI has been controlling new business due to past severity, thus not seeing a direct impact from the documentation change. She confirmed that tort reform in Florida and Georgia has been positive, leading to more reasonable claim resolutions and helping fight plaintiff attorneys.

Christian Getzoff asked about the conditions needed for an inflection in property rate decreases, distinguishing between rational and irrational competition. He also inquired about competitive dynamics in personal umbrella, the impact of Florida's diligent search documentation elimination, and the effects of tort reform in Florida and Georgia.

Answer

Jen Klobnak (COO) stated that less capacity, potentially from a large CAT event or a shift in investment opportunities, would help stabilize property rates, noting aggressive MGAs as a competitive factor. For personal umbrella, she highlighted RLI's strong market position, embedded partnerships, and ongoing rate increases. She indicated that RLI's controlled growth in Florida meant the diligent search regulation had minimal impact, and viewed tort reform in Florida and Georgia as positive for more reasonable claim resolutions.

Christian Getzoff asked if Everest Group's game plan for increasing the international component of its primary insurance book has changed due to the renewal rights and new wholesale/specialty focus, inquiring about organic growth runway and potential M&A. He also asked about pricing at 1/1 renewals and if the ADC/renewal rights sale increases appetite for new business.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President and CEO, clarified that international retail growth will be blunted for strategic reasons, but sees organic growth opportunities in wholesale/specialty with fewer investments. M&A is possible for 'bolting on capabilities.' Regarding 1/1 renewals, Mr. Williamson expects prices to decrease by about 10% but remain well-priced. He stated that capital constraints were never an issue and are not a factor in determining CAT appetite; it's driven by market dynamics and other capital deployment opportunities.

Christian Getzoff inquired about the company's outlook on pricing at the 1/1 renewals, given the hurricane season to date, and whether the ADC and renewal rights sale increased appetite for new business.

Answer

Jim Williamson, President and CEO, anticipated a potential 10% price decrease at 1/1, but still viewed the business as well-priced. He clarified that capital constraints were not a factor in growth decisions, which are driven by market dynamics and alternative capital deployment opportunities.