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    Christopher Cant

    Research Analyst at Autonomous Research

    Christopher Cant is Head of Banks Strategy at Autonomous Research, with over 25 years of experience specializing in the European and UK banking sector. He covers major listed banks including Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, HSBC, NatWest, and other significant financial institutions, consistently delivering in-depth strategic research to institutional clients. Cant joined Autonomous in 2022 following a distinguished career in equity research, M&A, and equity sales within the insurance and banking sectors, having held senior positions at major investment banks. He holds FINRA registration (CRD# 5999307) and is recognized professionally for his analytical expertise and leadership in banks research.

    Christopher Cant's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant posed several regulatory questions, asking about the competitive threat from potential U.S. SLR changes, whether a more benign CCAR reduces the need to retain the U.S. Consumer business, and the expected outcomes from the UK capital framework review, including views on the ring-fencing regime.

    Answer

    Group Finance Director Anna Cross expressed confidence in growing the financing business despite potential SLR changes and affirmed the strategic value of the U.S. Consumer business beyond its CCAR benefits, citing diversification and improving returns. Group Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan welcomed the holistic UK capital review but strongly defended the ring-fencing regime as a 'bedrock of depositor protection,' while stating he is optimistic that superfluous regulations could be relaxed to improve growth.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Autonomous asked about the outlook for Investment Bank RWA development in Q2, the viability of the 2026 group RWA growth target given regulatory delays, and the potential impact of a hypothetical US Section 899 tax on UK companies.

    Answer

    Executive Angela Cross confirmed the Investment Bank will operate within its circa £200B RWA allocation. She noted that while regulatory timing may shift, the core strategic plan to grow RWAs in UK businesses remains intact. Regarding a potential US tax change, she explained the impact would be complex and not a simple calculation based on country-by-country reporting.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to BARCLAYS (BCS) leadership • Q3 2023

    Question

    Requested the average cost of U.K. deposits in Q3 to help with modeling, and challenged the RoTE guidance, suggesting the flagged restructuring charge must be very large to risk missing the >10% target given strong year-to-date results.

    Answer

    The bank does not disclose the average cost of deposits but stated its pricing is competitive and publicly available. Regarding the RoTE target, they acknowledged Q4 has seasonal headwinds and that while the material restructuring charge could impact the full-year RoTE, the focus is on long-term returns and they are mindful of shareholder distributions. They did not confirm the size of the charge.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Autonomous Research inquired about the runoff profile of the government-guaranteed loan book and its effect on underlying growth. He also asked for views on potential prudential reviews and how a lower regulatory capital requirement might influence NatWest's own capital targets.

    Answer

    CEO Paul Thwaite confirmed that the government loan book is rolling off at a consistent quarterly rate. On capital, he agreed that reviews would focus on international competitiveness. CFO Katie Murray added that the bank would review its own capital targets if supervisory minimums change, especially considering the increase in nominal capital requirements from rising RWAs.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Bernstein Autonomous requested management's perspective on reforming the U.K.'s ring-fencing regulations, their motivations for advocating change, and the potential scale of duplicated costs associated with the current regime.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite confirmed his support for a review, arguing that the regulatory landscape has evolved, with regimes like recovery and resolution now providing significant financial stability. He stated the primary motivation for reform is to reduce cost and friction for customers, which can distort pricing and limit economic support, rather than just internal cost savings. He declined to quantify the costs but emphasized that any changes would not weaken depositor protection.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Christopher Cant questioned the bank's forward-looking guidance, highlighting the significant gap between its 2026 base rate assumption of 2.9% and market expectations around 4%. He asked how this discrepancy affects the Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) target and whether a delay in rate cuts would lead to a sharp increase in second-half 2024 revenues.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite acknowledged the bank's rate cut assumptions but noted that confidence in medium-term targets has increased based on Q1 performance, though guidance remains unchanged for now. CFO Katie Murray added that while H2 income was previously expected to be higher than H1, the strong Q1 performance suggests a more balanced half-on-half profile, and provided sensitivity for analysts to model their own rate scenarios.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Autonomous Research asked about the Schroders joint venture, its performance, and its role in the future retail investment strategy. He also questioned the 2026 targets, noting that consensus forecasts seemed misaligned with the sub-50% cost-to-income ratio goal, even when accounting for the >15% RoTE.

    Answer

    Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn stated they are pleased with the Schroders JV for full-service advice but see the broader retail opportunity being captured by digital-first journeys like 'Ready Made Investments'. Executive Director & CFO William Chalmers reiterated confidence in meeting all 2026 targets, including the cost-to-income ratio, through strong operational leverage driven by income growth and a flattening cost base.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant sought clarification on whether management was flagging an adverse fleet revaluation in Q2, asked about the uptick in CIB Stage 3 loans, and inquired about the long-term outlook for mortgage spreads in a higher interest rate environment.

    Answer

    William Leon Chalmers, an executive, stated it was too early to determine the net impact of the Q2 fleet revaluation, noting BEV prices were weaker but ICE prices were stronger. He attributed the modest CIB Stage 3 increase to two specific cases in the fiber sector. On mortgage spreads, he emphasized a holistic view, where profitability is augmented by cross-selling protection and other products.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Christopher Cant requested more precise quantification of the "modestly positive" impact of Basel 3.1 on RWAs. He also asked for the expected quantum of the non-banking NII step-up in Q4 and how that should be modeled for 2025.

    Answer

    William Leon Chalmers, an executive, explained the improved Basel 3.1 outlook is due to favorable changes in areas like infrastructure scaling and credit conversion factors, but declined to provide a precise number as the process is not final. For non-banking NII, he guided towards the upper end of the £450-£500 million full-year range, implying a Q4 step-up. He suggested a modest tick-up for 2025 from that full-year figure, driven by activity growth and financing lags, but stressed this would be more than offset by positive trends in margin and AIEAs.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to BARC.L leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to BARC.L leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Christopher Cant requested a quantification of the US late fee impact and asked why NII guidance was not increased given the Bank of England levy offset and supportive swap markets. He also inquired about NII sensitivity to base rates.

    Answer

    Group Finance Director Angela Cross did not provide a specific number for the late fee impact but confirmed it was included in the RoTE guidance. On NII, she stated that the bank does not adjust its prudent, long-term targets quarterly based on market fluctuations. She also noted that due to the scale of its structural hedge, Barclays is less sensitive to immediate base rate changes than peers.

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