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    Christopher CantAutonomous Research

    Christopher Cant's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant posed several regulatory questions, asking about the competitive threat from potential U.S. SLR changes, whether a more benign CCAR reduces the need to retain the U.S. Consumer business, and the expected outcomes from the UK capital framework review, including views on the ring-fencing regime.

    Answer

    Group Finance Director Anna Cross expressed confidence in growing the financing business despite potential SLR changes and affirmed the strategic value of the U.S. Consumer business beyond its CCAR benefits, citing diversification and improving returns. Group Chief Executive C.S. Venkatakrishnan welcomed the holistic UK capital review but strongly defended the ring-fencing regime as a 'bedrock of depositor protection,' while stating he is optimistic that superfluous regulations could be relaxed to improve growth.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to Barclays PLC (BCS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Autonomous asked about the outlook for Investment Bank RWA development in Q2, the viability of the 2026 group RWA growth target given regulatory delays, and the potential impact of a hypothetical US Section 899 tax on UK companies.

    Answer

    Executive Angela Cross confirmed the Investment Bank will operate within its circa £200B RWA allocation. She noted that while regulatory timing may shift, the core strategic plan to grow RWAs in UK businesses remains intact. Regarding a potential US tax change, she explained the impact would be complex and not a simple calculation based on country-by-country reporting.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership

    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Christopher Cant of Bernstein Autonomous requested management's perspective on reforming the U.K.'s ring-fencing regulations, their motivations for advocating change, and the potential scale of duplicated costs associated with the current regime.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite confirmed his support for a review, arguing that the regulatory landscape has evolved, with regimes like recovery and resolution now providing significant financial stability. He stated the primary motivation for reform is to reduce cost and friction for customers, which can distort pricing and limit economic support, rather than just internal cost savings. He declined to quantify the costs but emphasized that any changes would not weaken depositor protection.

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    Christopher Cant's questions to NatWest Group PLC (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Christopher Cant questioned the bank's forward-looking guidance, highlighting the significant gap between its 2026 base rate assumption of 2.9% and market expectations around 4%. He asked how this discrepancy affects the Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) target and whether a delay in rate cuts would lead to a sharp increase in second-half 2024 revenues.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite acknowledged the bank's rate cut assumptions but noted that confidence in medium-term targets has increased based on Q1 performance, though guidance remains unchanged for now. CFO Katie Murray added that while H2 income was previously expected to be higher than H1, the strong Q1 performance suggests a more balanced half-on-half profile, and provided sensitivity for analysts to model their own rate scenarios.

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