Christopher Jeffrey

Christopher Jeffrey asked about the updated price per decatherm for Great Basin (now $18 per month compared to the prior $14-17 range) and its potential impact on the project's economics.

Answer

Justin Brown, President of Southwest Gas Corporation, clarified that the updated price of $18 per decatherm per month, included in the precedent agreements, is based on firmed-up inquiries and internal designs. He stated that this change is not anticipated to materially alter the project's economics compared to the initial 14-17 range.

Christopher Jeffrey asked about the updated price per decatherm for Great Basin, specifically its firmness now that it's in the precedent agreements, and any changes to the project's economics compared to the prior range.

Answer

Justin Brown, President of Southwest Gas Corporation, clarified that the updated price of $18 per month per decatherm is based on firmed-up inquiries and internal designs. He stated that this update is not anticipated to materially change the project's economics from the previously scoped range of $14-$17.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho inquired about the decision to retain Blackstone as a 20% stakeholder in Genco, weighing the benefits against retaining 100% ownership. He also asked for more clarity on the base capital plan update, specifically the significant allocation in 2029, and if it relates to bespoke projects.

Answer

CFO Shawn Anderson explained that Blackstone is a strong long-term partner, reducing financing needs, reinforcing the balance sheet, lowering capital cost, and providing diversification. He noted that the 2029 capital allocation includes DLOL compliance requirements for generation investment, FMSA compliance at Columbia Gas Ohio, and MISO long-range transmission projects.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. inquired about the rationale for Blackstone Infrastructure Partners retaining a 20% stake in GenCo versus NiSource owning 100% of the business, and sought more clarity on the base capital plan update, particularly the larger investments in 2029.

Answer

Shawn Anderson, EVP and CFO, explained that Blackstone is a strong long-term partner providing a robust platform, reducing financing needs, reinforcing the balance sheet, and lowering the cost of capital. Regarding the base capital plan, he noted that 2029 includes larger investments for DLOL compliance, FMSA compliance in Ohio, and MISO long-range transmission.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho Securities inquired about the capital investment for the Abilene-area data center project and the pipeline for similar large-scale projects. He also sought to clarify if the new 80% capital spending deferral eligibility applies company-wide or just in Texas, and how the benefit is allocated between the distribution and pipeline segments.

Answer

President & CEO Kevin Akers noted that while inquiries for large projects are strong across all service territories, the company only reports on them after contracts are signed. Akers confirmed the 80% capital deferral eligibility applies to Atmos as a whole, with most of the increase attributable to the APT segment. SVP & CFO Christopher Forsythe added that for the fourth quarter, the earnings benefit from the legislation is forecast to be about two-thirds from distribution and one-third from APT.

Christopher Jeffrey asked for details on the capital outlay for the Abilene data center project, the potential for similar projects, and clarification on whether the new 80% capital deferral eligibility applied company-wide or just in Texas.

Answer

President & CEO Kevin Akers stated that while inquiries for similar projects are strong, details are only shared upon contract signing, and he confirmed the 80% capital deferral eligibility applies to Atmos as a whole, with most of the increase from the APT segment. SVP & CFO Christopher Forsythe added that for Q4, the benefit is forecasted to be roughly two-thirds distribution and one-third APT.

Christopher Jeffrey of Mizuho Securities asked for the reasoning behind the delayed timeline for the Colorado rate case. He also inquired if the new regulatory treatment of capitalizing cloud computing costs in Texas is expected to be replicated across other states.

Answer

CEO John Akers advised not to 'read a lot into' the Colorado timing change, describing it as part of normal operational scheduling. CFO Christopher Forsythe explained that capitalizing cloud costs is a new strategy to reduce regulatory lag and they will assess its application in other jurisdictions after a final decision in Texas, confirming it is the first such implementation.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho Securities inquired about the company's expectations for the Waha gas price spread in fiscal 2025 compared to the strong levels in 2024. He also asked for the key drivers behind the increase in the O&M inflation forecast from 3.5% to 4%.

Answer

President and CEO John Akers stated that the company expects Waha spreads to normalize from the high levels seen in summer 2024, partly due to a new rider benchmark. SVP and CFO Christopher Forsythe explained the higher O&M forecast is driven by a step-up from the SSI rider, increased compliance and system monitoring costs, and higher employee costs to support customer growth. Akers also noted that increased line locate activity is a contributing factor.

Christopher Jeffrey of Mizuho Securities inquired about updates on RNG tax credit rulemaking (45Z), the impact of the OBVA bill, project timelines for the New York and Columbus RNG facilities, the size of a recent insurance payout, and the current M&A environment.

Answer

CFO Michael Kuglin explained that the company is awaiting final Treasury regulations before recognizing any 45Z tax credits and noted the OBVA bill extends the credit but doesn't resolve ambiguities. President & CEO Michael Stivala added that the OBVA bill positively expanded qualifying income sources for MLPs. Stivala confirmed the Columbus and New York RNG projects are on track for late calendar 2025 or early 2026, while work in Arizona consists of ongoing operational improvements. Kuglin quantified the insurance benefit at just under $2 million, offsetting inflation, and projected forward inflation around 3%. Stivala described the M&A pipeline as active and consistent with prior years, reaffirming its strategic importance.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho Securities inquired about Suburban Propane's strategy amidst propane price volatility, the current M&A landscape for propane businesses, and the outlook for renewables regulations and investments.

Answer

President and CEO Michael A. Stivala explained that the company's propane sourcing strategy is unchanged despite price volatility, viewing lower prices as a consumer positive. He described the M&A environment as favorable with fewer buyers and a strong pipeline for Suburban. On renewables, Stivala highlighted potential upside from California's LCFS amendments and reiterated the long-term strategy to leverage core logistics expertise for future fuels like RNG and hydrogen, regardless of near-term regulatory shifts.

Christopher Jeffrey of Mizuho Securities asked about the operational impact of recent cold weather on system performance and unit margins, and also questioned the company's elevated leverage, the timeline for returns from growth investments like RNG, and strategies for managing the capital stack.

Answer

President and CEO Michael A. Stivala responded that the company's platform is built to handle increased demand from cold weather and that field operations are effectively managing selling prices amid commodity volatility. Regarding leverage, Stivala explained it is temporarily elevated due to growth investments in RNG projects not yet generating earnings and the inclusion of a prior weak quarter in the trailing-twelve-month calculation. He highlighted that the Stanfield RNG facility began earning Production Tax Credits on January 1, 2025, which, along with new projects coming online, will help reduce leverage and boost cash flow, reaffirming a commitment to balance sheet strength.

Christopher Jeffrey questioned how the Texas rate case was anticipated in long-term guidance, the benefits of service area consolidation, and any updates on ONE Gas's potential to serve power load growth from data centers.

Answer

SVP & COO Curtis Dinan clarified that the Texas rate case and consolidation were already contemplated in the five-year plan, noting that consolidation enhances regulatory efficiency and reduces costs for customers. Regarding new load, he confirmed ONE Gas is actively pursuing opportunities with data centers and advanced manufacturing, selecting projects that also enhance system resiliency and align with strategic goals.

Christopher Jeffrey of Mizuho Securities questioned how the Texas rate case and service area consolidation were factored into long-term guidance and requested an update on opportunities related to data centers and power load growth.

Answer

SVP & COO Curtis Dinan stated that a consolidation case in Texas was already contemplated in the five-year plan and that its main benefit is increased regulatory efficiency and customer cost savings. He also confirmed the company is actively pursuing numerous data center and manufacturing opportunities, strategically pairing them with projects that enhance system resiliency.

Christopher Jeffrey asked about the effect of weather on sales volume and working capital, the drivers of lower interest expense, and the expected timeline for the O&M in-sourcing program.

Answer

CFO Christopher Sighinolfi confirmed colder weather boosted sales and working capital needs, while interest expense benefited from a modest decrease in commercial paper rates. COO Curtis Dinan explained that the in-sourcing program has no planned sunset date and is a continuous effort, having reached 40% for line locating with opportunities to expand into other areas.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho asked about the impact of cold Q1 2025 weather on working capital, particularly regarding the monetization of gas storage and the effect on the commercial paper balance relative to original guidance.

Answer

SVP and CFO Christopher Sighinolfi explained that the commercial paper balance was elevated at year-end 2024 because warmer-than-normal Q4 weather reduced the anticipated liquidation of storage inventories. However, he noted that the colder weather in January and February 2025 has brought storage levels back in line with the company's plan, and he anticipates a strong cash flow quarter for Q1 2025 as a result.

Christopher Jeffrey from Mizuho Securities asked about the drivers of customer growth, the company's financing strategy regarding commercial paper versus long-term debt, and the outlook for bad debt expense.

Answer

SVP and COO Curtis Dinan attributed recent customer growth firming to a pickup in housing permits, though tempered by high mortgage rates, and stated that bad debt expense has now normalized. SVP and CFO Christopher Sighinolfi clarified that equity forward settlements at year-end will reduce commercial paper balances, aligning with their strategy of using CP for short-term financing and matching long-term debt and equity to needs.

Christopher Jaffrey from Mizuho Securities asked for clarification on the Midstream segment's performance, potential pipeline opportunities from Missouri load growth, and the drivers of the strong Gas Marketing results.

Answer

EVP & CFO Adam Witter stated that approximately 90% of the year-over-year increase in Midstream earnings was attributable to the Spire Storage expansion. President & CEO Scott Doyle confirmed that load growth from Missouri electric utilities is creating low-CapEx opportunities for Spire's pipelines. Regarding marketing, Mr. Witter noted the business was well-positioned for the quarter and is on track to meet its annual targets.

Christopher Jeffrey inquired about the upcoming Missouri legislative session and any utility-focused bills that could impact Spire's rate case. He also asked for the drivers behind the updated CapEx guidance, which shows higher spending in '24 and '25, and what the run rate might be for '26 and beyond.

Answer

Executive Vice President and COO Scott Doyle stated the legislative session will not impact the rate case timing and that Spire is focused on clarifying future test year availability. Vice President and Treasurer Adam Woodard explained that the near-term CapEx increase is driven by accelerating advanced meter replacements in Missouri, which should be completed in '25. President and CEO Steven Lindsey added that with the storage expansion winding down, 98% of the 10-year CapEx plan is dedicated to the utilities.

The analyst asked if the Louisiana gas storage expansion CapEx is included in the 2024 guidance and inquired about the reason for the increase in maintenance CapEx for 2024.

Answer

The company clarified that significant CapEx for the gas storage project is not in the 2024 budget, as this year is focused on engineering and permitting, with spending expected in 2025 and beyond. The increase in 2024 maintenance CapEx is driven by scheduled overhauls of compression equipment in North Texas and Oklahoma.