Christopher Stathoulopoulos

Christopher Stathoulopoulos questioned the confidence behind the company's target of over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, given cautious outlooks from other travel sectors, and asked about the potential for positive free cash flow for the year.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ferraro expressed confidence based on strong forward booking trends, particularly for leisure travel, and a robust used car market, which provides opportunities. He acknowledged economic uncertainty but stressed the company is prepared for multiple scenarios. CFO Izilda Martins added that while Q1 free cash flow was negative due to fleet financing, she expects positive free cash flow in the latter part of the year, assuming current trends continue.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos of Susquehanna International Group asked for clarity on the quarterly EBITDA cadence for 2025, noting the guidance implies a second-half weighted year. He also inquired about the potential impact of vehicle import tariffs on the business.

Answer

CFO Izilda Martins confirmed Q1 would have elevated fleet costs similar to Q4 2024, but no further charges are expected beyond Q1. CEO Joseph Ferraro added that performance follows seasonality, with the Easter shift boosting Q2 and a strong summer peak driving results, making the year back-half weighted. Regarding tariffs, Ferraro noted that while the situation is fluid, higher new car prices could benefit used car values and that Avis is flexible enough to adapt to macroeconomic changes.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked about the dynamics of the current fleet buying cycle compared to prior years and the progress of the company's broader business transformation initiatives.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ferraro described the model year 2025 fleet buy as a return to more predictable, historical norms with significantly better pricing. He detailed the three core pillars of their transformation: optimizing the fleet buy with data analytics, driving operational efficiencies to improve vehicle utilization, and enhancing revenue generation through their demand fleet pricing system to maximize contribution margin.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna International Group, LLP asked for a strategic view on Carnival's ability to protect pricing power and brand equity in the Caribbean, considering competitor growth, new ship classes, and the mix of premium offerings and private destinations.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein emphasized that the cruise industry primarily competes with land-based alternatives, where it remains a small player, allowing for continued growth. He highlighted Carnival's upcoming XL sisters and Ace Class ships, its long-term commitment to the Caribbean, and the strategic advantage of its destination development (Celebration Key, Half Moon Cay) in driving consumer consistency and conversion.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos questioned the timing of the new loyalty program launch, asking why the change is happening now and if it was contemplated during the Investor Day two years ago. He also asked for color on the assumptions behind the half-point yield impact for next year.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that the loyalty program change was not a focus two years ago. CFO David Bernstein explained that the half-point negative yield impact is a non-cash accounting effect. It stems from the requirement to defer a portion of ticket revenue for future benefits earned. As the program is new, there will be a lag before revenue recognized from redemptions catches up with the amount being deferred, a process expected to take about two years to normalize.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos questioned the timing of the new loyalty program launch, asking why the change is happening now and if it was contemplated two years ago. He also asked for color on the assumptions behind the half-point yield impact for next year.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated that the loyalty program was not a primary focus two years ago. CFO David Bernstein clarified that the projected half-point yield impact is a direct result of accounting rules that require the deferral of a portion of ticket revenue to account for the value of future benefits earned by guests. He explained it is not based on user acquisition assumptions, but rather is a timing difference that will normalize as guests begin to redeem their benefits.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos of SIG sought to consolidate questions on consumer health, asking if there were any unique or differing trends in booking pace or onboard spend across Carnival's brand segments, from contemporary to luxury, or by region.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein gave a short answer of 'no,' indicating consistent strength across the portfolio. He emphasized that Carnival's business is different from airlines as it is purely leisure-focused. He stressed that consumers prioritize vacations in all economic climates and that the company's value proposition makes it resilient.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for a rank-ordering of the drivers behind cruise's persistent demand momentum compared to other travel sectors. He also questioned the outlook for advertising spend, asking if the current elevated levels are the new normal required to maintain demand.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein declined to rank-order the drivers but agreed the strength is not from pent-up demand, attributing it to better commercial execution across marketing and trade partnerships. CFO David Bernstein stated that future advertising levels are part of the ongoing planning process, with guidance to come in December. Weinstein added that ad spend supports long-term booking goals and that Carnival's spending remains lower than most peers.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos requested elaboration on the reduction in competitive capacity, details on peak vs. off-peak flying, the outlook for stage and gauge, and the balance between yield and load factor.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle clarified the nearly three-point competitive capacity reduction applies across all of Frontier's markets and detailed the strategy of significantly cutting Tuesday/Wednesday flying. President James Dempsey added that future growth will focus on peak periods. Biffle reiterated the strategy is to fill planes first, then drive yield, noting that the current RASM strength is primarily yield-driven.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos requested a more detailed breakdown of the full-year capacity plan, asking about the composition of growth in terms of frequencies, peak versus off-peak deployment, stage length, and specific markets.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle reiterated the strategy of moderating growth and focusing capacity on peak periods and, most importantly, peak days of the week (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday). He emphasized that the company will not chase utilization on off-peak days like Tuesday and Wednesday if it's unprofitable, stating that lower utilization has led to higher margins. He confirmed the company remains fluid on second-half capacity and will adjust based on demand signals.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos of Susquehanna Financial Group requested a deeper understanding of the 2025 network plan, including the mix of new versus mature capacity, the criteria for evaluating new markets, and the strategy for regional capacity placement.

Answer

CEO Barry Biffle clarified that while a third of flying was in new routes at times this year, the goal for mid-2025 is to have the percentage of new flying closely mirror the overall growth rate. He stated that new routes are selected based on their potential to generate double-digit margins, with a historical hit rate of about two-thirds on revenue estimates. The placement of new capacity is market-driven and opportunistic, with Frontier ready to act quickly when competitors make cuts.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos requested a more detailed breakdown of the flat capacity outlook for 2026, asking about inputs like stage, gauge, and the mix of peak versus off-peak flying. He also asked for more color on the drivers for 'materially higher' earnings, specifically around utilization and load factor assumptions.

Answer

SVP & CCO Drew Wells indicated that gauge would likely increase slightly due to the fleet mix shift to larger MAX aircraft, and utilization might be slightly lower with less off-peak flying. President and CEO Gregory Anderson added that they plan for a higher proportion of peak flying. Drew Wells also noted there is a line of sight to load factor benefits driven by flat capacity and Navitaire system enhancements.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos sought to better understand network performance by asking for the RASM delta between Allegiant's top and bottom quartile routes. He also requested details on the shape of second-half capacity, including plans for new routes, suspensions, and aircraft configurations.

Answer

CCO Drew Wells declined to provide quartile-level route performance data but reiterated that peak periods are holding up well while off-peak periods are weaker. For H2 capacity, he outlined a month-by-month growth profile and noted that about 5% of routes are new, with mid-20s routes suspended this year. CEO Greg Anderson and Wells detailed the Allegiant Extra rollout, projecting 75 A320s and all 16 MAX aircraft will feature the configuration by year-end.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for a breakdown of how Allegiant will achieve capacity growth with a relatively flat fleet, questioning the mix of departures, gauge, and new routes. He also requested specific metrics for Sunseeker's expected positive Q1 EBITDA, including occupancy and ADR.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Drew Wells explained that growth will be primarily driven by increased departures from higher utilization, with 75-80% of added capacity coming from existing routes. President and CEO Gregory Anderson provided Q1 Sunseeker targets, projecting occupancy in the high 50s (57-59%) and an Average Daily Rate (ADR) north of $300, driven by strong group bookings.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna International Group asked for more detail on the inputs for the 2027 financial targets, particularly the daily aircraft utilization assumptions. He also questioned the reason for the delay in Amazon aircraft utilization.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker reiterated the inputs include 3% inflation and a return to the prior year's 7.3 hours per day passenger aircraft utilization. He clarified the Amazon utilization delay was due to the timing of aircraft inductions, which caused Amazon to adjust its schedule. He emphasized that under the CMI model, Sun Country operates the schedule Amazon provides.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for a reminder on the timing of Amazon contract rate increases relative to aircraft deliveries and how utilization is reflected in the contract's economics. He also asked about the timing of aircraft returning from CMI leases.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker explained the Amazon contract's margin comes from its fixed component, making lower utilization favorable for Sun Country. He and CFO William Trousdale noted most rate increases are baked in, with one more tied to growth expected in Q3. Bricker confirmed leased aircraft will return through the end of this year and into next, with inductions taking time due to part availability.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos of Susquehanna Financial Group requested more detail on the economics of the Amazon contract, including schedule visibility and network structure. He also asked about regional performance variations within Sun Country's scheduled service network.

Answer

CEO Jude Bricker confirmed the contract's fixed and variable rate structure and explained that schedules are developed on a two-month basis, providing visibility, though the current fleet integration period will be complex. Regarding network performance, Jude noted very strong demand in leisure trunk routes to West Florida and Mexico, with relative softness in Southern California and the Caribbean. Executive Grant Whitney clarified the Caribbean's 'weakness' is a year-over-year TRASM comparison on strategically expanded and still highly profitable routes.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos sought to bridge the 2025 EBITDA cadence to the company's long-term 'North Star' targets and asked for management's perspective on the potential impact of auto tariffs on the business.

Answer

CFO Scott Haralson explained that while not providing specific 2026 guidance, the company expects to make directional progress towards its targets, with DPU being the biggest and most confident driver of financial improvement. CEO Wayne West commented that Hertz is largely insulated from tariffs due to its advanced fleet rotation, locked-in vehicle buys, and diversified supply, adding that higher new car prices would likely lift residual values, benefiting their model.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for a deeper understanding of the fleet utilization strategy and where its benefits would appear in unit metrics, and also inquired if a total dollar target for cost savings had been communicated.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Sandeep Dube detailed a three-pronged approach to utilization: reducing out-of-service waste, improving coordination between fleet and commercial teams, and better managing off-peak demand. CFO Scott Haralson confirmed no formal dollar target for cost savings has been given, but reiterated the run-rate goal of low-$30s for DOE per day, achieved through gradual, continuous improvement.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for quantification of the election and calendar shift impacts on RevPAR and sought a high-level 2025 outlook for the various travel segments like leisure, business, and group.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pacious noted the Q3 calendar shift created a 90-basis-point drag. For 2025, he pointed to positive macro indicators like GDP growth that correlate with RevPAR and highlighted long-term demand drivers like infrastructure spending and event-driven travel as a solid foundation for growth.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked for a more nuanced view on Boeing's role in the aftermarket and how a prolonged strike could impact the market. He also inquired about regional demand trends, particularly in China.

Answer

CEO Aengus Kelly explained that Boeing's aftermarket role is critical for parts and repair approvals, and a strike causes significant background disruption. He noted that demand for their order book remains strong but expects schedules to continue shifting right. He highlighted that narrow-body demand in China is extremely strong, with near-international Asian markets also expected to grow.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos asked about the composition of the 2025 capacity plan, where growth opportunities lie, and the rationale for the 1-2% growth range.

Answer

CEO Bob Jordan explained that the 1-2% capacity growth is driven by efficiency initiatives like red-eyes and faster turn times, not new aircraft CapEx. He noted capacity is being redeployed to stronger markets. The primary uncertainty for the growth range is the Boeing delivery schedule, which could make the high end difficult to achieve. COO Andrew Watterson added that average stage length is increasing.

Inquired about the expected profitability of the ACMI segment, the potential impact of lower interest rates on aircraft lease rates, and the status of ongoing labor negotiations.

Answer

The ACMI segment is expected to be profitable for the full year, with a strong fourth quarter. For 2025, it could represent 25-30% of total adjusted EBITDA. Lease rates for the 767 have remained very stable and are not expected to be significantly impacted by interest rate changes. New pilot labor agreements are not anticipated until 2025 and the potential costs are already factored into financial models.

Asked for a detailed breakdown of the new Amazon agreement, the economics of the power-by-cycle program, the status of labor talks with ATI and Omni, and the commitment status of aircraft for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

Answer

The Amazon deal involves 10 incremental 767-300s for ABX by year-end, with a potential for 10 more. Power-by-cycle revenue has declined with 767-200 retirements but should stabilize. Labor talks with ATI and Omni are in mediation. Guidance does not include uncommitted aircraft, and while demand for 767s and A330s is strong, the A321 market faces global oversupply issues.

Asked for clarification on the drivers of the guidance miss, seeking to separate temporary issues from persistent ones. He also inquired about pilot attrition, the puts and takes for 2024 EBITDA, power-by-cycle contracts, and the company's liquidity position and unencumbered collateral.

Answer

Management explained the miss was due to a mix of factors, including temporary Omni service and timing issues and market softness impacting CAM. They are confident 2024 EBITDA will exceed 2023's revised figure. Pilot attrition is an ongoing challenge but is being managed. The company has over $400M in liquidity on its revolver, leverage is around 3x, and they confirmed having ~$1.5B in unencumbered collateral.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos sought clarification on the Q3 competitive capacity outlook to better understand yield opportunities and asked how to think about the components of 2025 capacity (stage vs. gauge) in the context of expanding margins.

Answer

CCO Andrew Harrison clarified that at a high level, competitive capacity increases in Alaska's hubs are in the extremely low single-digits for September/October. For 2025, CFO Shane Tackett explained that growth will be similar to the number of new units taken, as the stage length is already long. He noted the next significant opportunity for gauge growth will be the MAX 10, which is not expected until 2026.

Christopher Stathoulopoulos of Susquehanna asked for a breakdown of how various revenue initiatives contribute to the EBITDA guide versus cost efficiencies. He also sought reassurance that Carnival is not reverting to an 'old playbook' of dilutive capacity growth, given the updated guidance with higher capacity and costs.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the benefits from initiatives vary, with some being immediate (SEO) and others long-term (booking curve management). Regarding the guidance, he clarified the capacity increase is a positive development, driven by strong demand for the Costa brand, which will boost EBITDA and liquidity. CFO David Bernstein added that the cost increase was primarily due to higher-than-forecasted occupancy, a direct result of record bookings.