Corinne Blanchard

Corinne Blanchard asked for a breakdown of the expected $500 million-$600 million CapEx for 2026, particularly its quarterly cadence, and sought insight into the company's strategy for sourcing heavy rare earths beyond current operations, including recycling, mine expansion, or M&A.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett indicated that CapEx would be lumpy, with initial spend on Northlake land, scaling 10X construction, and Apple-related initiatives, with a slight bend towards the year-end. He also noted that EBITDA cadence would largely depend on NdPr pricing, with a typical one-quarter lag for contract pricing. COO Michael Rosenthal explained that MP Materials is exploring recycling and diverse feedstocks, supported by the Department of War, and while heavy rare earth needs are reduced due to technical advancements, the company expects to be the largest Western Hemisphere producer.

Corinne Blanchard asked for the expected CapEx and EBITDA cadence for the year, particularly how the $500M-$600M CapEx guidance, largely for 10X, would break down quarterly. She also inquired about MP Materials' strategy for sourcing heavy rare earths beyond current operations, including recycling or M&A.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett explained that CapEx would be lumpy, with initial spend on Northlake land, scaling with 10X construction, and Apple-related spend towards year-end. EBITDA cadence depends heavily on NdPr prices, with contract pricing lagging spot prices. COO Michael Rosenthal stated they are exploring recycling and diverse feedstocks, with DoW support for global sourcing, and noted reduced heavy rare earth needs due to technical progress.

Corinne Blanchard asked about the company's strategy regarding the halt of concentrate shipments to China, including how long they can sustain this and the potential impact of stockpiling on EBITDA. She followed up by asking for confirmation that all production now has a destination outside of China and if demand exists for it.

Answer

CFO Ryan Corbett explained that stockpiling concentrate represents a minor working capital use that is manageable given the company's strong balance sheet, and that the profit is merely deferred, not lost. He then confirmed directly that 100% of the company's product is currently sold outside of China and that they are 'incredibly optimistic' about the demand from the ex-China supply chain, especially given recent events.

Corinne Blanchard requested details on the specific areas within the Mountain Pass Midstream operations that require improvement and the potential solutions. She also asked for more information on the company's exploration plans for the current and upcoming year.

Answer

COO Michael Rosenthal identified solids handling and conveyance as a key area needing improved mechanical reliability to enhance uptime across the interconnected circuits. He explained that as one bottleneck is fixed, another may be exposed, but the team is making steady progress. Regarding exploration, Rosenthal stated that the near-term focus is on in-pit and near-pit drilling to better define the existing ore body, with potential for broader exploration in future years.

Corinne Blanchard asked about the OpEx margin expectations for 2026 and the medium term (2027-2028), as well as the view on the U.S. versus international mix for the rest of 2026.

Answer

CFO Keith Jennings reiterated that OpEx leverage is a key focus, targeting 10% of revenues, with further EBITDA margin expansion from APA's commercial synergies in 2027. CEO Kevin Hostetler explained that international recovery is about a year behind domestic, with acceleration expected in 2026.

Corinne Blanchard asked about Array Technologies' OpEx margin expectations for 2026 and the medium term (2027-2028), as well as the outlook for the U.S. versus international mix for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Keith Jennings stated that OpEx, as a percentage of revenue, has decreased from 15% two years ago to approaching 12% in 2026, with a near-term target of 10% through scale and leverage. He expects further EBITDA margin expansion from commercial synergies with APA starting in 2027. CEO Kevin Hostetler added that the international recovery is about a year behind the domestic, with Array replicating its successful domestic investment strategy (new sales resources, technical capabilities) in Latin America and Europe, leading to increased traction and expected acceleration in 2026.

Corinne Blanchard asked about the expected cadence for EBITDA and Free Cash Flow in 2026, and sought more details from Ingrid Joerg on the operational efficiencies targeted by the Vision 2028 program, specifically regarding debottlenecking and market opportunities.

Answer

CFO Jack Guo explained that Q1 and the first half of 2026 are expected to be stronger for EBITDA due to seasonality, favorable recycling economics, and full quarter automotive supply benefits, with Q1 stronger than Q4 2025. He noted Free Cash Flow typically sees working capital build in Q1/H1 and release in H2. CEO Ingrid Joerg detailed Vision 2028's focus on asset reliability, throughput maximization, portfolio optimization, debottlenecking, and metal cost reduction, targeting growth in packaging and aerospace.

Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank asked about the expected cadence for Constellium's EBITDA and free cash flow in 2026, and sought more details from CEO Ingrid Joerg on the operational efficiencies and debottlenecking opportunities targeted by the Vision 2028 program.

Answer

CFO Jack Guo outlined that Q1 and the first half of 2026 are expected to be stronger for EBITDA due to seasonality, incremental recycling benefits, and full-quarter automotive supply benefits, with Q1 projected to be stronger than Q4 2025. Free cash flow typically sees working capital build in the first half. CEO Ingrid Joerg detailed Vision 2028's focus on asset reliability, throughput maximization, portfolio optimization, and debottlenecking, with growth opportunities identified in packaging and high-margin Aerospace markets.

Corinne Blanchard inquired about modeling the aerospace segment's margin profile for Q4 2025 and 2026, given its strong performance, and asked for a bridge to the $900 million EBITDA target by 2028, focusing on volume and pricing perspectives.

Answer

Jean-Marc Germain (CEO, Constellium) and Ingrid Joerg (COO and CEO Appointee, Constellium) addressed the 2028 EBITDA target, highlighting specific investments like the Nevoisak recycle center and Isoire aerospace products, which are largely under Constellium's control. They noted that current scrap spreads are narrower than assumed in the 2028 bridge, which could be a tailwind, while automotive market weakness is a headwind. Ingrid Joerg emphasized Constellium's wide product portfolio, including aluminum-lithium technology, and focus on value-added products and R&D capabilities as drivers for differentiated aerospace margins, also mentioning continued focus on commercial discipline and operational execution.

Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank asked for insights into modeling Constellium's aerospace margin profile for Q4 2025 and 2026, given its exceptional performance. She also requested a detailed bridge to the company's $900 million EBITDA target by 2028, focusing on volume and pricing contributions.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain noted that Constellium is ahead of its 2028 plan, with $220 million remaining to reach the target. He highlighted specific CapEx investments (Nevoisak recycle center, Muscle Shoals casting, Isoire Airware, Ravenswood cast house modernization) as key drivers, many of which are geared towards recycling and do not require new customers for profitability. He also mentioned that current scrap spreads are wider than assumed in the 2028 bridge, potentially offering a tailwind, while automotive market weakness in Europe and the U.S. presents a headwind. COO and CEO Appointee Ingrid Joerg emphasized Constellium's wide product portfolio, including aluminum-lithium technology, and focus on value-added products and R&D innovation as differentiators for aerospace margins. She also stressed the importance of commercial discipline and operational execution, particularly at Muscle Shoals, for achieving the 2028 target.

Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank inquired about the confidence behind the raised 2025 guidance, the expected performance cadence between Q3 and Q4, the updated mid-cycle EBITDA per ton target for the A&T segment, and the potential for price increases in the packaging business.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain attributed the guidance raise to strong packaging demand, operational improvements, cost controls, and favorable scrap spreads, while noting caution in automotive. He confirmed the A&T segment's through-the-cycle EBITDA target was raised to $1,100/ton and stated the packaging pricing environment for 2026 is very supportive. CFO Jack Guo added that Q3 performance is expected to be stronger than Q2, with Q4 showing normal seasonality.

Corinne Blanchard inquired about the sustainability of strong Q1 aerospace performance into the rest of the year and asked for clarity on the cost impact and cadence of automotive tariffs.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain stated that while the aerospace market will remain choppy, the company's progress is sustainable. Regarding auto tariffs, he described the situation as a "big mystery" but noted that Constellium's conservative guidance already accounted for weakness. CFO Jack Guo added that the gross tariff headwind is expected to be around $20 million for the rest of the year, spread fairly evenly across the quarters before mitigation efforts.

Corinne Blanchard of Wolfe Research asked for details on the key inputs and cadence for the 2025 EBITDA and free cash flow guidance, a walkthrough of the bridge to the 2028 long-term outlook, and the impact of the reporting currency switch to U.S. dollars.

Answer

CEO Jean-Marc Germain detailed 2025 headwinds including tight scrap spreads, weak automotive markets, and aerospace destocking, which are being offset by cost savings, operational improvements, and contract repricing. He described the path to the 2028 target as relatively linear. CFO Jack Guo added that cost-saving efforts have been accelerated, targeting over $50 million in opportunities, and deferred the currency impact question to an offline discussion.

Corinne Blanchard asked if SolarEdge is considering changing its pricing strategy in Europe or the U.S. in 2026 or 2027. She also inquired about the TPO market, including increased competition and its expected evolution for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

Shuki Nir, CEO, reiterated that SolarEdge's pricing strategy will not change per se, but the focus remains on leveraging advantages, providing value to customers, earning an applicable premium, and gaining market share in both regions. Regarding the TPO market, Nir noted the shift towards TPO due to 48E, emphasizing SolarEdge's long-standing partnerships, integrated systems, and value proposition (product, power generation, efficiency, service, and support). He expressed satisfaction with the growth of this market segment.

Corinne Blanchard asked if SolarEdge is considering changing its pricing strategy in Europe or the U.S. in 2026 or 2027.

Answer

CEO Shuki Nir stated that SolarEdge is not planning to change its pricing strategy per se. The intention is to continue leveraging their advantages, providing more value to customers, earning an applicable premium, and gaining market share in both markets, despite differing competitive landscapes. Corinne Blanchard also inquired about the TPO market, asking about increased competition and how the market is expected to evolve in 2026 and 2027. CEO Shuki Nir noted that with 48E remaining the sole tax benefit, the market is shifting towards TPO. He emphasized SolarEdge's long-standing partnerships with TPOs, providing value through product performance, efficiency, system integration, and support, and expressed satisfaction with the growth of this market segment.

Corinne Blanchard asked for an update on channel inventory levels in both the U.S. and Europe. She also requested a high-level view on the U.S. market outlook for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

CEO Shuky Nir reported that European channel inventory is now mostly at normal levels and that he has not observed any abnormal inventory buildup in the U.S. For the 2026-2027 outlook, he projected an overall U.S. market decline of around 20% as the 25D credit expires, but noted that the TPO segment, where SolarEdge is strong, is expected to grow significantly.

Corinne Blanchard asked about the speed of securing ex-China battery supply and whether SolarEdge would reconsider using its Sella 2 facility, potentially converting it to LFP. She also requested an update on European market demand.

Answer

CEO Yehoshua Nir explained that the supply chain team is actively working on sourcing optimization while maintaining quality. He stated there are no plans to use the Sella 2 facility, as it uses NMC technology and converting it would require substantial time and capital, diverting focus from the core business. He described the European market as challenging but noted early signs that SolarEdge is regaining market share.

Corinne Blanchard sought more details on the 22% CapEx reduction, asking how it impacts capacity or projects, for which business segments it applies, and if any projects have been deferred beyond the 2027 timeframe. She also asked for an update on the consultation process with local groups regarding the Codelco agreement.

Answer

Gerardo Andrés Illanes González, CFO, outlined the $2.7 billion CapEx for 2025-2027, allocating $1.3 billion to Chilean lithium (hydroxide expansion to 100,000 tons, carbonate to 260,000 tons overall), $700 million to international lithium (Mount Holland expansion, Assure first steps), and $800 million to iodine and plant nutrition (seawater pipeline, María Elena iodine site). He clarified that agreements with communities were finalized months ago, and the only remaining step is the review by Contraloría in Chile.

Corinne Blanchard sought more details on the CapEx reduction, which was lowered by about 22%, and how it would not impact capacity or projects. She asked for a breakdown of the reduction across business segments and any projects pushed beyond the 2027 timeframe. She also followed up on the Codelco agreement, asking if local communities are still being consulted and for an update on their standing.

Answer

Gerardo Andrés Illanes González, Vice President of Strategies and M&A Lithium and CFO, SQM, provided a CapEx breakdown for 2025-2027 totaling $2.7 billion: approximately $1.3 billion for Chilean lithium (including hydroxide expansion to 100,000 tons and carbonate capacity to 260,000 tons), $700 million for international lithium (including Mount Holland expansion and early steps of Assure), and $800 million for iodine and plant nutrition (including the seawater pipeline and María Elena iodine site). He clarified that agreements with communities for the Codelco JV were finalized months ago and publicly released; the only remaining review is by Contraloría, an internal auditing body of the government.

Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank asked for an update on the progress of discussions with Codelco and local indigenous groups regarding the joint venture. Additionally, she inquired about the company's current lithium inventory levels.

Answer

CEO Ricardo Ramos reported that the Codelco process, including community consultations and Chinese regulatory review, is moving fast and positively, with final approval expected in the next two months. Carlos Díaz Ortiz, General Manager of the Lithium Potassium Division, described lithium inventory levels as 'healthy' and consistent with production and sales forecasts for the year.

Corinne Blanchard from Deutsche Bank asked for an update on the progress of discussions with Codelco and local community groups, including timing, and also inquired about the company's current lithium inventory levels.

Answer

CEO Ricardo Ramos expressed optimism, stating the process with communities is on track and regulatory reviews are progressing well, with a final deal expected in the next two months. Carlos Díaz, General Manager of the Lithium Division, described lithium inventories as 'healthy' and aligned with production and sales forecasts for the year, noting strong demand and recovering prices.

Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank asked for SQM's view on Mt. Holland's volume guidance for 2025 and 2026, following a recent update from partner Wesfarmers, and requested a clarification on the company's current dividend policy and payment cadence.

Answer

Andres Fontannaz, Commercial VP of SQM International Lithium, clarified that SQM's calendar year guidance for its share of Mt. Holland production is 15,000 to 18,000 tonnes, slightly reduced due to bushfires, noting that Wesfarmers reports on a different fiscal year. Gerardo Illanes, VP of Services & Finance, reiterated that the dividend policy is to distribute 30% of 2025 net income, with payment approved at the annual shareholders' meeting in April. He added that while interim dividends are possible, none are being considered for Q1.

Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank sought clarification on the Mt. Holland volume guidance for 2025-2026 following a revision by partner Wesfarmers, and asked for a reminder of SQM's dividend policy and payment cadence.

Answer

Andres Fontannaz, Commercial VP of SQM International Lithium, provided a 2025 calendar year guidance of 150,000 to 180,000 tonnes for SQM's share from Mt. Holland, noting a revision due to bushfires and equipment issues. Gerardo Illanes, VP of Services & Finance, reiterated that the dividend policy is to distribute 30% of the year's net income, with payment approved at the annual meeting in April. He added that no interim dividends are currently planned.

Corinne Blanchard asked for clarification on the reported decrease in Clearway Group's pipeline from 29 gigawatts last quarter to 27 gigawatts, and if this indicates a pushback in some early-stage projects despite an increase in prospects.

Answer

Craig Cornelius, President and CEO, clarified that Clearway Group's pipeline is actually 30 gigawatts, up from 29 gigawatts last quarter. He explained that the 27 gigawatts figure represents a pro forma level after selective harmonization of development assets not essential for the enterprise's goals over the next three to four years. Mr. Cornelius emphasized that the late-stage pipeline for the next seven years significantly exceeds CWEN's needs, and the company will selectively harvest individual assets not critical for near-term goals.

Corinne Blanchard asked about the reported decrease in Clearway Group's pipeline from 29 GW to 27 GW, specifically inquiring if this indicates a decrease in early-stage projects or a pushback in some projects.

Answer

President and CEO Craig Cornelius clarified that Clearway Group's pipeline is actually up quarter-over-quarter to 30 GW, not down. He explained that the 27 GW figure was a pro forma level after certain selective harmonization of development assets not essential for the enterprise's goals over the next three to four years. He emphasized that the late-stage pipeline still meaningfully exceeds CWEN's needs.

Corinne Blanchard inquired about TrueCapture's contribution to quarterly revenues (noting it was 2%), its expected contributions for fiscal year 2026, and requested a regional market update for trackers.

Answer

Dan Shugar, CEO and Founder, confirmed TrueCapture revenue rebounded to approximately 2% this quarter, with recognition tied to system commissioning. Howard Wenger, President, added that TrueCapture adoption continues to increase (from ~1% at IPO), with ongoing feature enhancements, capability improvements, and a robust backlog, driving higher energy yield.

Corinne Blanchard asked about TrueCapture's contribution, noting it made up 2% of quarterly revenues, and inquired about its expected contributions for fiscal year 2026, along with a quick regional market update for trackers.

Answer

CEO and Founder Dan Shugar explained that TrueCapture revenue recognition is tied to system commissioning, rebounding to around 2% of recognized revenue this quarter after a slight dip. President Howard Wenger added that TrueCapture adoption continues to increase, growing from about 1% at IPO, with ongoing feature additions and capability enhancements leading to higher energy yield and a strong backlog.

Inquired about the revenue outlook for 2025 given the delays and current year guidance, and asked about the company's balance sheet, specifically the status of the EXIM financing and the cash level at which they would need to draw on it.

Answer

Management is not providing 2025 guidance but noted that revenue figures in the $40-50 million range are possible, with a ramp-up expected in the second half of the year. The EXIM loan agreement is signed and available, but the company has sufficient cash to operate well into 2025 without needing to draw on it this quarter.

Corinne Blanchard of Deutsche Bank asked for more detail on the revenue impact of project delays pushed into Q4, the potential revenue scale for 2025, and the company's cash position, including the trigger for drawing on its EXIM credit facility.

Answer

CEO Eric Dresselhuys stated that while not providing formal guidance, the 2025 revenue figures mentioned were 'within the range of what we would see possible,' with a ramp weighted towards the second half of the year. CFO Tony Rabb confirmed the EXIM loan is available but not immediately needed, as the company has sufficient cash to operate 'well into 2025' without drawing on the facility.

Inquired about the specifics of their realized pricing compared to China spot prices, the future of the $1,500/ton additional processing fee, and the company's plans for handling the convertible notes due in 2027.

Answer

Sam Pigott confirmed that the China reference price needs to be adjusted for VAT and the additional processing fee. He suggested using the $1,500 fee for modeling the rest of the year, with more guidance on product mix and pricing for 2025 to come. Regarding the convertible notes, both Sam Pigott and Alex Shulga stated that the focus is on refinancing Exar's short-term debt first. They are confident in their ability to refinance the convert closer to its 2027 maturity, especially given its attractive 1.75% interest rate.

Asked about battery storage attachment rate trends in California and other states, and whether the company has run scenarios on the impact of a potential Republican election win on their cash generation guidance.

Answer

Storage attachment rates have moved up meaningfully, exceeding 60% in California and growing in other key markets, a trend expected to continue. Regarding political risk, the company sees bipartisan support for domestic content and believes if any adders were removed, they could raise prices to compensate, given the favorable macro trends of rising utility rates and falling equipment costs.