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Cosmos Chiu

Research Analyst at CIBC World Markets Corp.

Toronto, ON, CA

Cosmos Chiu is Managing Director and Director of Precious Metals Equity Research at CIBC World Markets, specializing in gold, silver, and royalty companies across North America, Europe, and Africa. He covers key firms like MAG Silver, Pan American Silver, Wheaton Precious Metals, and SSR Mining, with a track record featuring a 58% success rate and an average return of 16% per rating ranked #327 of nearly 10,000 analysts on TipRanks. Chiu began his career in the sector over 15 years ago and has been with CIBC since June 2006, earning industry recognition such as a top-five Starmine stock picker ranking and consistent top-10 honors from Brendon Wood International. He also holds professional securities licenses and analyst certifications as required for public equity research at major Canadian investment banks.

Cosmos Chiu's questions to ROYAL GOLD (RGLD) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Cosmos Chiu asked about the Constantian stream, specifically the 5,000 ounces deferred from 2025, inquiring about the reasons for the delay in delivery mechanisms and whether these ounces would be added to 2026 expectations. He also questioned management's comfort level with the current debt of $1.225 billion and the likelihood of further acquisitions, as well as Royal Gold's strategy for its 30% joint venture interest in Hamadan, inherited from the Sandstorm acquisition.

Answer

Bill Heissenbuttel (President and CEO, Royal Gold) clarified that the 5,000-ounce deferral was a timing issue due to an initial modeling error, not a production shortfall, and explained that ounces derived from late 2026 production would be delivered in 2027, not simply added to 2026 totals. He expressed comfort with the debt level, noting a pro forma net debt to EBITDA of 1 to 1.5, and stated that while future acquisitions are possible, the company's priority is to convert the Hamadan joint venture interest into a more traditional royalty interest, acknowledging that valuation discussions (especially regarding gold price assumptions) are key hurdles.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC Capital Markets asked how investors should use the new Asset Handbook to build long-term models, inquired about the corporate development landscape and whether opportunities are arising from existing portfolio assets or new ones, and sought clarification on a discrete tax benefit recognized during the quarter.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel explained the Asset Handbook is designed to consolidate operator forecasts for the short-to-medium term, not to provide official long-term guidance from Royal Gold. On corporate development, Heissenbuttel noted that in-portfolio deals are opportunistic, while SVP of Corporate Development Daniel Breeze added that the broader M&A market is one of the busiest in recent memory, with a wide range of opportunities. SVP and CFO Paul Libner confirmed the Q1 tax benefits were infrequent items and that the adjusted effective tax rate of 19.4% falls within the unchanged full-year guidance of 17-22%.

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Question · Q4 2024

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC World Markets asked for help modeling future growth from the complex Cortez royalty, the timing of the Q1 2025 shutdown's impact on Pueblo Viejo deliveries, and the strategic rationale for acquiring the Cactus copper royalty.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel explained that modeling Cortez long-term is difficult without more detailed production plans from the operator, Barrick, but that annual guidance would provide clarity. He detailed the 3-5 month lag for Pueblo Viejo deliveries, meaning a Q1 shutdown would impact Q2 or Q3 sales. Heissenbuttel reiterated that the Cactus acquisition was an opportunistic investment in a familiar metal and not a strategic shift away from precious metals. SVP of Operations Martin Raffield and SVP of Corporate Development Daniel Breeze provided additional detail on the technical aspects of silver recovery at Pueblo Viejo and the expected mine sequencing at Cactus.

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Question · Q3 2024

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the SEC's S-K 1300 reporting standard, asking for clarity on why 43-101 compliant reserves no longer meet the SEC's requirements and questioning the extent of the upcoming amendment to the company's 10-K filing.

Answer

President and CEO William Heissenbuttel clarified that the issue is strictly a reporting matter stemming from the SEC's interpretation of S-K 1300, which precludes the inclusion of reserve and resource data from foreign-domiciled operators who report under different standards. Heissenbuttel stressed that there is no change to the business's risk profile and that all reserve and resource information will remain fully available on the company's website and in its asset handbook, just not within the 10-K itself.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to Triple Flag Precious Metals (TFPM) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Cosmos Chiu, Executive Director and Institutional Equity Research of Gold and Precious Metals at CIBC, questioned the valuation of Minera Florida, specifically how recent issues like negative grade reconciliation and unplanned mine sequencing were factored in, and whether these were considered one-off variances or indicative of a longer-term trend. He also asked what specific assets and production increases contribute to the 2029 guidance of 135,000 to 145,000 GEOs. Finally, he inquired about the 2025 GEOs and the gold-silver ratio, confirming if silver's outperformance benefits revenue and GEO calculation, and when the 85:1 ratio might be reconsidered for 2026 guidance.

Answer

James Dendle, COO, stated that while short-term variances at Minera Florida are considered, the valuation relied on the mine's long history of consistent operations and production records, expecting it to perform within its historical range long-term. Dendle also detailed the drivers for the 2029 GEO outlook, including ramping up new assets like Akata Silver Mine, Minera Florida, 3Q, and Johnson Camp, as well as production increases from existing mines like North Parks, RB Platts, and Beta Hunt's expansion. Sheldon Vanderkooi, CEO, confirmed that a stronger silver price relative to gold benefits GEOs and revenue, though 2025 saw some headwind due to timing. He noted that the 85:1 ratio is close to current market conditions and is reviewed for conservatism with each new guidance, including for 2026.

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Question · Q3 2025

Cosmos Chiu questioned the recent performance of Minera Florida, noting issues like negative grade reconciliation and unplanned sequencing, and asked how these short-term variances were factored into the valuation and if they are expected to be a one-off. He also inquired about the drivers behind the 2029 GEOs guidance of 135,000-145,000 ounces and the company's gold-silver ratio of 85:1 for 2025 GEO calculations, specifically if silver's outperformance benefits Triple Flag and when the ratio might be reconsidered for 2026.

Answer

James Dendle, COO, acknowledged short-term variances at Minera Florida but expressed confidence in the long-term performance based on the mine's extensive historical production records. He attributed the 2029 GEOs growth to a diversified portfolio of ramping-up assets (Akata Silver, Minera Florida, 3Q, Johnson Camp), the Koné project, and expected production increases from operating mines like Northparkes, RBPlat, and Beta Hunt. Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO, confirmed that a stronger silver price relative to gold benefits GEOs, though year-to-date there was a slight headwind due to timing. He stated that the 85:1 ratio is currently in line and that the company reviews and adjusts its gold-silver ratio for guidance annually to ensure it remains conservative.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to FRANCO NEVADA (FNV) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

Cosmos Chiu inquired about Franco-Nevada's visibility into NPI performance at Hemlo and Musselwhite, especially given the change in ownership at Hemlo and the timing of Musselwhite's annual payment. He also asked how outperforming PGM prices benefit the Western Limb stream, given its complex gold-PGM production pegging.

Answer

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer, noted limited visibility for NPIs, with Hemlo's Q3 performance impacted by lower production and the ongoing sale. He explained Musselwhite's NPI is an annual, post-year-end estimate. Paul Brink, President and CEO, expressed optimism about new ownership at both Hemlo and Musselwhite for long-term expansion. Eaun Gray, Chief Investment Officer, confirmed direct and indirect benefits from platinum's appreciation for the Western Limb stream, with gold deliveries linked to four-year PGM production.

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Question · Q3 2025

Cosmos Chiu inquired about the visibility of Hemlo MPI production for Q4 and 2026, including the impact of the potential ownership change. He also asked about the Musselwhite 5% MPI performance in Q3 and its kick-in timing. Additionally, Chiu questioned the rationale behind selling Discovery shares and the future plans for remaining Discovery and G Mining equity stakes, and how Western Limb benefits from PGM price outperformance.

Answer

Sandip Rana, CFO, Franco-Nevada Corporation, noted limited visibility on Hemlo MPI production, with Q3 impacted by lower production and the ongoing sale. He expressed optimism about new ownership plans. For Musselwhite, Rana explained it's a profit calculation paid annually, with current numbers being conservative estimates. Paul Brink, President and CEO, Franco-Nevada Corporation, expressed delight with the new ownership teams for both Hemlo and Musselwhite, expecting long-term benefits. Regarding Discovery shares, Brink stated the sale was driven by strong share price performance and the desire to repay debt, while confirming Franco-Nevada's long-term support and equity holding in both Discovery and G Mining. Eaun Gray, Chief Investment Officer, Franco-Nevada Corporation, explained that Western Limb benefits from platinum price appreciation directly through the platinum stream and indirectly as gold deliveries are linked to four-year PGM production, mitigating volatility.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu asked for clarification on the Hemlo NPI's future performance after a Q1 catch-up payment, the potential of other NPIs like Kirkland Lake and Musselwhite, the timing of GEO receipts from the Western Limb stream, and an update on the Cobre Panama situation, including the arbitration process.

Answer

CFO Sandip Rana confirmed the Hemlo NPI included a ~$5M catch-up from 2024 and that future revenue, while strong, shouldn't be modeled at the same elevated level. He noted the Kirkland Lake NPI is not currently on an active mining area but has future potential, and highlighted the Musselwhite NPI as one with leverage under its new operator. Rana also clarified the Western Limb stream has a one-quarter lag in payments. President and CEO Paul Brink expressed cautious optimism about Cobre Panama, noting President Mulino's willingness to talk and resolve the issue by year-end, and confirmed Franco-Nevada's arbitration discussions with the government are productive but have nothing to report yet.

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Question · Q1 2024

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC Capital Markets asked about the upcoming Panamanian election's potential impact on Cobre Panama, the source of the significant increase in finance income, and the complexities of implementing global minimum tax legislation.

Answer

President & CEO Paul Brink stated they are watching the Panamanian election closely but expect candidates to be circumspect, hoping for new dialogue post-election. CFO Sandip Rana clarified that the $16 million in finance income is interest earned on their cash balance, while interest from loans is now reported in revenue. Rana also explained that the Barbados and Canadian global minimum tax laws are expected to be enacted concurrently.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu from CIBC World Markets asked about the Q2 drawdown in produced but not delivered (PBND) inventory, the potential impact of an accelerated Phase 2 at the Blackwater project, and the mechanics of the San Dimas gold-silver ratio.

Answer

SVP & CFO Vincent Lau explained the PBND drawdown was due to the timing of a large shipment from Salobo and expects inventory to normalize. VP-Mining Operations Wes Carson stated the potential Blackwater acceleration is not yet in long-term guidance but would be a positive development. CEO Randy Smallwood clarified the San Dimas ratio reverts to 70:1 only if the silver-gold price ratio stays below 70 for a continuous six-month period.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC World Markets inquired about the Q1 variance between production and sales, the potential for additional payments for the Salobo high-grade mine plan, the permitting and financing status of the CopperWorld project, and the production versus sales outlook for the Voisey's Bay cobalt stream.

Answer

SVP & CFO Vincent Lau and President & CEO Randy Smallwood explained that higher sales resulted from strong Q4 2024 production at Salobo, where copper concentrates have a longer conversion time to sales. VP of Mining Operations, Wes Carson, stated that additional payments for Salobo's high-grade plan are not imminent. Regarding CopperWorld, Randy Smallwood clarified that advancing funds is contingent on Hudbay securing a satisfactory financing plan, not necessarily a JV partner. Wes Carson also noted that cobalt sales are lumpy due to shipping schedules but will catch up to the strong Q1 production.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to PAN AMERICAN SILVER (PAAS) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu from CIBC World Markets asked if the recent operational issues were specific to former Yamana assets. He also inquired about the H2 weighting of sustaining capital expenditures, the potential for the dividend to decrease after the MAG Silver cash payment, the final hurdles for the MAG acquisition, and its future accounting treatment.

Answer

COO Steve Busby attributed the issues to the nature of narrow-vein mining, not their origin as former Yamana assets. SVP Scott Campbell confirmed capex is on track for the full year despite H1 delays. CEO Michael Steinmann stated strong free cash flow should support the dividend post-acquisition and that Mexican antitrust approval is the final hurdle. CFO Ignacio Couturier indicated the MAG Silver interest will likely be treated as an equity pickup on the income statement.

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Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC World Markets asked if recent operational issues were specific to former Yamana assets, the pace of sustaining capital spending, the potential impact of the MAG Silver acquisition on the dividend, and the planned accounting treatment for the MAG Silver transaction.

Answer

COO Steve Busby and CEO Michael Steinmann attributed the operational issues to the normal variability of narrow-vein mining, not their origin as former Yamana assets. SVP Scott Campbell confirmed CapEx spending is on track to meet forecasts despite a slow start. CEO Michael Steinmann expressed confidence in the dividend, citing strong free cash flow generation. CFO Ignacio Couturier indicated the MAG Silver interest will likely be accounted for as an equity pickup.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC asked for more color on the technical challenges and seismicity at the Bell Creek mine. He also questioned the progress of the Escobal consultation process, the future relevance of NRV adjustments as Dolores winds down, the validity of prior quarterly cost guidance for Q2/Q3, and the status of the Navidad project in Argentina.

Answer

Executives Steven Busby and Martin Wafforn acknowledged ongoing seismicity challenges at Bell Creek that have slowed operations but are being managed. Executive Sean McAleer described the Escobal meetings as productive but slow-moving. Executive Ignacio Couturier confirmed NRV adjustments will become less significant post-Dolores. Executive Steven Busby and Executive Michael Steinmann reaffirmed that quarterly cost guidance is still a good gauge, but stressed its dependency on favorable metal prices and FX rates. On Navidad, Michael Steinmann stated it is too early to act despite positive changes in Argentina, preferring to monitor the situation.

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Question · Q4 2024

Cosmos Chiu from CIBC Capital Markets questioned the 2025 production guidance for the La Colorada and Jacobina mines, suggesting they seemed conservative given strong Q4 2024 performance, and inquired about the strategic view on the Timmins asset following Newmont's recent sale in the district.

Answer

COO Steven Busby explained that La Colorada's 2025 production is balanced with development into a new high-grade area, representing a short-term trade-off for long-term value. For Jacobina, he noted that plant upgrade projects will temper production until late 2025. CEO Michael Steinmann addressed the Timmins asset, stating he sees significant potential for district-wide synergies and value creation through collaboration with the new owners of the neighboring assets.

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Question · Q2 2024

Cosmos Chiu from CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the new La Colorada ventilation shaft's performance and the expected production ramp-up timeline. He also asked how the company achieved lower costs in Q2 despite production shortfalls and sought an update on the Escobal consultation process in Guatemala.

Answer

Michael Steinmann (Executive) and Steven Busby (Executive) confirmed the La Colorada shaft is performing exceptionally well, immediately increasing airflow and boosting tonnage by 25%. They expect a steady, straight-line ramp-up through year-end. Regarding costs, they explained that favorable currency fluctuations (Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real) and the timing of byproduct credit sales contributed to lower costs. On Escobal, Steinmann noted that while a key government appointment is pending, the number of meetings with other officials has significantly increased.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to OR Royalties (OR) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu inquired about the specific criteria used to include assets in the five-year guidance, Osisko's capacity for larger, billion-dollar transactions, and the company's long-term intentions for its equity stake in Osisko Development.

Answer

CEO Jason Attew detailed that assets are included in the five-year outlook based on high visibility of GEO contribution, a clear path to full financing, and established social license. He confirmed Cariboo is likely to be included in the next update. On large deals, Mr. Attew affirmed that billion-dollar transactions are not off the table if they meet the company's economic return hurdles. Regarding the Osisko Development stake, he stated the company is pleased with its new ~14.3% position and has no near-term plans to divest the block.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to ELDORADO GOLD CORP /FI (EGO) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC World Markets inquired about the capital expenditure run rate for the Skourias project, the items on the critical construction path, the rationale for drawing down the term loan despite a strong cash position, and the details of the potential investment in the HPGR circuit at the Kisladag mine.

Answer

President & CEO George Burns explained that Skourias project activity will peak in Q3 before ramping down. He confirmed the filtered tailings plant remains the critical path due to complex foundation work but is on track. EVP & CFO Paul Ferneyhough justified the loan drawdown by citing advantageous interest rates, while Mr. Burns added it supports the NCIB share buyback. EVP Simon Hille and Mr. Burns detailed that the Kisladag HPGR investment aims to improve throughput and recovery by adding a new crusher and closing the circuit, with a full update expected in Q3.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the Skouries project, asking for clarity on using the 66% completion figure as a progress metric, details on contingency plans for labor, and the strategy behind the expanded Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB).

Answer

President and CEO George Burns explained that the Skouries project completion percentage will ramp up towards 100% by Q1 2026, driven by increased construction work and equipment installation. He detailed a multi-layered labor contingency plan, sourcing workers from Greece (Plan A), nearby EU countries (Plan B), and Scandinavia (Plan C). Burns also stated the NCIB increase signals management's confidence in the project and their view that the company's shares are currently undervalued.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to ALAMOS GOLD (AGI) leadership

Question · Q2 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC World Markets asked for confirmation that the groundwater issue at Young Davidson was resolved and questioned the throughput ramp-up schedule for Q3 and Q4. He also inquired about expected recoveries at the newly integrated Magino mill, the sufficiency of the SAG mill's redesign, and the go-forward grade profile for the Magino open pit.

Answer

COO Luc Guimond confirmed the groundwater issue at Young Davidson is resolved with added pumping capacity. He stated Q3 throughput would be around 7,500-7,600 tpd before reaching the 8,000 tpd target in Q4. For the Magino mill, Guimond projected a blended recovery of approximately 96% and confirmed the redesigned liner configuration is sufficient to reach the 11,200 tpd target. He also clarified that the processed grade from Magino ore should remain within the 0.9 to 1.05 g/t guidance range.

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Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu inquired about the Magino mill's throughput targets, specifically if the 11,200 tonnes per day goal is still active and if it's a prerequisite for integrating the Island Gold mill. He also asked about the cause of lower Q1 output at Young-Davidson, questioning if aging equipment was a factor. Finally, he sought clarification on the accounting for share-based compensation within AISC and whether the significant Q1 charge could be reversed in the future.

Answer

Luc Guimond, COO, confirmed the 11,200 tonnes per day target for Magino remains and that the full integration of Island Gold ore would proceed in early May, as recent bottlenecks were resolved and a successful high-grade batch test was completed. He clarified the Young-Davidson issue was due to mining sequencing and unscheduled drill maintenance, not the age of the fleet. Greg Fisher, CFO, explained that the AISC volatility was due to mark-to-market accounting on cash-settled stock compensation, which could indeed reverse if the company's share price declines.

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Question · Q2 2024

Cosmos Chiu sought confirmation on the scope of the upcoming 3-year guidance and asked which operational areas at Magino required more certainty before the update. He also inquired about the future reporting structure for the combined Island Gold/Magino district, the equipment replacement cycle at Island Gold, and the performance of new hybrid scoops at the Young-Davidson mine.

Answer

Scott RG Parsons, VP of Exploration, confirmed the upcoming 3-year guidance will cover production, cost, and CapEx. Luc Guimond, COO, detailed the improvement plans for Magino, targeting higher mining and milling rates by year-end. Guimond added that the operations will be reported separately for 2024 but as an integrated unit from 2025. He also explained the ongoing fleet replacement at Island Gold and confirmed the new hybrid scoops at Young-Davidson are performing well, improving productivity and costs.

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Cosmos Chiu's questions to SSR MINING (SSRM) leadership

Question · Q1 2025

Cosmos Chiu of CIBC Capital Markets inquired about the integration of Cripple Creek & Victor (CC&V), seeking details on the timeline for the new technical report and potential optimization strategies. He also questioned the capital expenditure ramp-up at Hod Maden and the validity of its 2022 feasibility study. Finally, he asked about any linkage between a potential restart at the Copler mine and a construction decision at Hod Maden.

Answer

EVP, Operations and Sustainability, Bill MacNevin, stated that a new technical report for CC&V is targeted for Q3 2025, which will provide the most immediate update. Executive Chairman Rodney Antal added that the company is focused on reacquainting the market with the asset and will not speculate on optimizations until the report is complete. Regarding Hod Maden, Antal explained that CapEx will escalate from Q3 onwards as early works contracts are executed and confirmed the 2022 feasibility study, adjusted for 10-15% compounded inflation, remains the best basis. He also clarified that the Copler restart and the Hod Maden project are being managed as entirely separate initiatives with no linkage.

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Question · Q4 2024

Cosmos Chiu from CIBC asked how the new Buffalo Valley reserve integrates into Marigold's production profile, questioned the rationale for using conservative commodity price assumptions, and requested details on the spending timeline for the remaining Çöpler remediation costs.

Answer

EVP, Operations and Sustainability, William MacNevin, clarified that Buffalo Valley's integration is several years away, pending feasibility studies and permitting. Executive Chairman Rodney Antal defended the conservative price assumptions, citing Çöpler's care and maintenance status and a desire for consistency, noting a full portfolio review will occur after the CC&V integration. CFO Michael Sparks added that 2025 remediation spending will be lower than 2024, with costs spread over several years as the East Storage facility is constructed.

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