Question · Q4 2025
Craig Mailman inquired about the current market rent trends, asking for expectations on how much further rents might decline and if an inflection point is anticipated in 2026, considering vacancy rates and competitor pricing. He also sought specifics on the drivers of occupancy decline, including any major known move-outs beyond redevelopment, and details regarding the 75 basis points bad debt reserve, particularly what occurred in Q4 2025 and the composition of the watch list.
Answer
Laura Clark (COO and Incoming CEO) noted signs of stabilization (steady Q3/Q4 2025 leasing, sub-50k sq ft stabilization, moderated rent declines) but also challenges (moderated early 2026 leasing, negative net absorption), indicating the market is "bouncing around the bottom" without a clear inflection point. Michael Fitzmaurice (CFO) attributed occupancy decline to longer downtime assumptions for 2026 (1M sq ft taken back in Q4 2025, 10-11 month repositioning/redevelopment timelines). John Nahas (Managing Director of Operations) cited specific Q4 2025 move-outs (Rancho Pacifica Park, 3880 Valley) and properties entering development (Gale, Balboa, One Ninetieth). Fitzmaurice detailed bad debt: 50 bps in 2025 (two large tenants in Q4), with a similar watch list size year-over-year, leading to a 75 bps reserve for 2026. Nahas added that the watch list shows larger spaces and a concentration in logistics, driven by specific business issues and changing customer rates.
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