Craig Shere

Craig Shere inquired about Talen Energy's capital and balance sheet management decisions over the next 2-3 quarters, given the increasing plausibility of new build projects, especially through the RBP auction. He asked how Talen Energy might balance being less aggressive with its balance sheet if opportunities arise for share buybacks or acquisitions. He further elaborated on the challenge of balancing buybacks, acquisitions, new build organic growth, and managing fuel/commodity risks on long-term gas-fired PPAs, which also require balance sheet capacity.

Answer

Terry Nutt, President, clarified that Talen Energy has always considered new builds with the right certainty, such as a 15-year commitment from an RBP process, which enables financing. He stated that Talen Energy constantly balances the highest and best use of capital (buybacks, M&A, new build) to achieve high teens returns, demonstrating this through significant share repurchases and accretive acquisitions like Freedom and Guernsey. Mac McFarland, President and CEO, added that the new build timeframe has accelerated, and the RBP could allow for project finance structures, potentially requiring less balance sheet capacity. He emphasized that Talen Energy toggles its strategies, including its Share Repurchase Program (SRP) and net leverage target of 3.5x, to adapt to opportunities and ensure strong returns with the right contracts.

Craig Shere asked about Talen Energy's capital and balance sheet management decisions over the next two to three quarters, considering potential incentives for chunky new build projects through the RBP, and if this might lead to less aggressive share buybacks or acquisitions.

Answer

Terry Nutt, President, clarified that Talen has always been open to new builds with clear certainty, which the RBP could provide, enabling financing. He emphasized balancing capital allocation for the highest returns (high teens), citing past share repurchases and the Freedom and Guernsey acquisition as examples of strategic capital deployment. Mac McFarland, President and CEO, added that RBP-driven new build might use project finance, potentially requiring less balance sheet capacity, and that Talen will toggle its strategies (SRP, net leverage target) based on returns and contract structures.

Craig Shere inquired about potential gross margin differences between U.S. and international orders, the timeline for a foreign power company's national lab testing and its prospective order flow, and the operating cash flow burn during the quarter.

Answer

CEO Joe Mastrangelo stated that international sales are not necessarily expected to have lower gross margins, as global interest is driven by product performance. He clarified that the national lab testing is linked to a NYSERDA project. Regarding cash burn, he emphasized the company's strengthened balance sheet and strategic management for long-term growth.

Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers Investment Research asked about potential gross margin differences between U.S. and international orders, the timeline and prospective order flow from a foreign power company's national lab testing, and management's strategy for tempering operating cash flow burn as the company approaches positive gross margin in H2 2026.

Answer

CEO Joe Mastrangelo stated that international interest is driven by product performance, not trade balances, and he does not anticipate lower gross margins for international sales. He clarified that the national lab testing is for a global utility tied to a NYSERDA project. Regarding cash burn, he reiterated the company's focus on being good stewards of capital, leveraging the strengthened balance sheet and long-term strategic management.

Craig Shere asked about the potential for an elongated payback period for fleet customers due to narrowing spreads between diesel and CNG, and Clean Energy Fuels' opportunities to source third-party RNG.

Answer

President and CEO Andrew Littlefair acknowledged that narrowing spreads could affect payback but stated it's not a current concern, as Clean Energy Fuels can aggressively price fuel to achieve a roughly two-year payback. He also confirmed that there is ample third-party RNG available from approximately 90 suppliers, with the primary need being increased transportation volume.

Craig Shere asked if the narrowing spread between diesel and CNG prices is elongating the payback period for fleet customers, potentially creating a headwind for growth. He also inquired if Q4 2025 represented an all-time record for RNG volume through downstream operations and how Clean Energy Fuels anticipates sourcing third-party RNG for growth over the next 2-3 years.

Answer

Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO) stated that an elongated payback period due to narrowing spreads is not currently a significant issue, as they can still offer aggressive pricing for a roughly two-year payback, and the spread remains 'pretty good.' Robert Vreeland (CFO) confirmed Q4 2025 was a record quarter for RNG volume. Andrew Littlefair (President and CEO) added that there is 'plenty of RNG available' from approximately 90 suppliers, and the primary need for the industry is increased transportation volume, with no anticipated shortage of RNG for the next few years.

Craig Shere asked about the contribution from the 45Z tax credit in the quarter, the timeline for the upstream RNG business to become EBITDA positive, and whether fleets are concerned about a potential narrowing of the oil-to-gas price spread.

Answer

Executive Robert Vreeland said the 45Z contribution was immaterial for Q1 and that while individual dairies will be EBITDA positive in 2026, the net result for the upstream segment is uncertain due to new project ramp-up costs. President and CEO Andrew Littlefair added that the final value of 45Z is highly uncertain. He also stated that fleets are not expressing concern over the fuel spread, as he believes a constructive price advantage will remain.

Craig Shere asked about the timeline for large fleets to make substantial, multi-year commitments to the X15N engine. He also inquired about the 2025 guidance assumptions for margin-at-the-pump and potential operating leverage from increased station utilization.

Answer

President and CEO Andrew Littlefair clarified that he does not expect large, chunky, multi-year orders in 2025, but rather a focus on building a broad base of fleets taking smaller initial orders. Executive Robert Vreeland stated that 2025 guidance assumes a margin environment similar to today's, with low natural gas prices. He noted that while new X15N volume will contribute positively, the key indicator for 2025 is the breadth of adoption across many fleets, not a huge needle-moving economic impact.

Craig Shere asked about the Q3 upstream JV production run rate, the path to profitability for the upstream segment, whether the strong Q3 RNG sales volume was a new record for the core business, and the economic model for hydrogen fueling stations.

Answer

CEO Andrew Littlefair and Executive Robert Vreeland stated the Q3 upstream production run rate was about 2.8 million gallons annually and confirmed the segment is unlikely to reach profitability soon due to ongoing costs at the large Idaho project. They proudly confirmed the nearly 60 million gallons of Q3 RNG sales was a record for their core downstream network. For hydrogen, they explained the current model is a construction and service fee arrangement for transit customers, not a fuel-margin business.

Craig Shere inquired about the greatest initial commercial deployment prospects between Amarisco and Rock City for 2028-2029, the expected scale-down of production costs from the first-of-a-kind unit to 50 units and then over 100 units, and whether the mix of power and thermal provided for specific applications would always be bespoke or become consistent within industries like mining or hospitals.

Answer

Guillaume Moyen, Board Member and CFO, stated that both Rock City and Amarisco are well-positioned for early firm orders, with Rock City potentially first after FOAK licensing. He detailed the target cost structure for 1,000 units at $11.5 million ($3.5 million for fuel, $8 million for construction/assembly/deployment), noting more precise details for smaller volumes would be released later. Moyen also clarified that solutions are highly replicable once a first contract is established, citing Rock City's cold storage application (electricity and decay heat for defrosting) and similar models for remote mining and industrial cogeneration in sectors like paper tissue and cement.

Craig Shere inquired about the initial commercial deployment prospects for Terra Innovatum's Solo micro-reactors between Amarisco and Rock City for 2028-2029, and sought clarification on the expected scale-down of production costs from the first-of-a-kind unit to subsequent deployments, particularly for the first 50 units and beyond 100. He also asked about the replicability of customizing power and thermal mixes for specific industry applications.

Answer

Guillaume Moyen, Board Member and CFO, indicated that Rock City is likely first in line for deployment after licensing, while Amarisco also presents a strong opportunity for 50 units with its customer base, noting no clear frontrunner for the first firm order. Regarding costs, Mr. Moyen stated that the previously communicated $11.5 million total production cost (including $3.5 million for fuel and $8 million for construction/assembly/deployment) targets a volume of 1,000 units, and more precise details on cost structure for initial volumes are expected within the coming year. He later added that the ability to replicate solutions, such as providing electricity and using decay heat for cold storage at Rock City or for industrial processes in cement and paper tissue, makes the business model highly replicable across similar industries, despite variations in specific usage.

Craig Kenneth Shere with Tuohy Brothers asked about the prospects for securing the remaining fuel needed to maximize the INL powerhouse to 75 megawatts, and if refueling to full capacity would be possible later if not available upfront. He also inquired about the implications of using a plutonium fuel mix on the NRC regulatory process and any potential proliferation concerns.

Answer

CEO Jacob DeWitte expressed increasing confidence in securing sufficient fuel for the INL facility, potentially from diverse HALEU and plutonium sources, allowing for maximum capacity operation either at onset or shortly after. He confirmed the ability to refuel later, potentially commingling fuel types. Regarding plutonium, Mr. DeWitte explained that its use in fast reactors is well-understood by NRC and GEWE, with historical precedents. He strongly argued that fissioning plutonium destroys it, making it a non-proliferation benefit, and Oklo's recycling methods avoid pure separated plutonium.

Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers asked about the prospects for securing remaining fuel needs to maximize the maiden INL powerhouse to 75 MW, and if it could be refueled to maximum capacity later if not available upfront. He also inquired about the implications of using a plutonium mix on the NRC regulatory process and any potential proliferation concerns.

Answer

Jacob DeWitte, CEO of Oklo, expressed increasing confidence in having sufficient fuel for the INL facility, potentially from diverse HALEU sources or commingled plutonium-bearing fuel, allowing for maximum capacity. He explained that plutonium fuel in fast reactors is well-understood, with historical precedent under NRC and DOE oversight. DeWitte strongly argued that fissioning plutonium in reactors is the best non-proliferation strategy, destroying legacy weapons material and generating power, while future recycling technologies avoid producing pure separated plutonium.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers Investment Research Inc. asked about the timeline for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) at the INL plant, the sufficiency of fuel for its full 75 MW capacity, and the potential for announcing multiple powerhouses at once.

Answer

Co-Founder, CEO & Director Jacob Dewitte noted growing offtake interest for the INL plant for both power and R&D. He stated there is 'way more than enough' potential fuel material available and that future announcements will likely involve larger campuses with multiple plants, a possibility enhanced by the favorable new policy environment and fuel availability.

Craig Shere inquired about the CapEx difference and construction timelines between a fuel foundry and a recycling facility, and asked if potential executive orders would have the most significant impact on the fuel supply chain.

Answer

CEO Jacob Dewitte and CFO Richard Bealmear confirmed a recycling facility would require more capital and a longer construction timeline than a fresh fuel foundry, but would also unlock additional revenue streams. Regarding executive orders, Dewitte agreed there is a massive opportunity on the fuel side, but also highlighted significant potential for accelerating deployment through streamlined siting and regulation on federal lands, creating a favorable competitive dynamic.

Craig Shere asked about the comparative capital expenditure and construction timelines for a fuel foundry versus a recycling facility, and questioned where new federal executive orders could have the most impact.

Answer

Co-Founder and CEO Jacob Dewitte confirmed a recycling facility would take longer to build and require more capital than a fresh fuel foundry, but also unlocks new revenue streams. Regarding executive orders, Dewitte suggested the impact is broad, creating opportunities across siting, regulation, and fuel supply. CFO Craig Bealmear stated it was too early to provide specific CapEx figures.

Craig Shere from Tuohy Brothers asked if the Atomic Alchemy acquisition could improve the prospects for securing low-risk project financing for Oklo's future fuel recycling efforts. He also inquired about the expected customer and reactor size mix for the first 5 to 10 powerhouses, questioning the balance between different industries and the 15 MW versus 50 MW designs.

Answer

CEO Jake Dewitte explained that while fuel recycling is a margin enhancer and not a necessity, the Atomic Alchemy acquisition helps prove out radioisotope sales channels, which supports the economic case for future financing. CFO Craig Bealmear added that the recycling business has multiple value streams, providing optionality for a separate fundraising event. Regarding the customer mix, Dewitte stressed the value of diversification across data centers, energy transition, and industrial sectors. He anticipates near-term deployments will be more data center-focused (favoring the 50 MW design) but that the company will continue building its diversified pipeline.

Asked if the Atomic acquisition could help with future project financing for fuel recycling, and inquired about the expected customer and reactor size mix for the first 5-10 powerhouses.

Answer

The Atomic acquisition is expected to help de-risk future fundraising for recycling by proving out the economics of the radioisotope co-product revenue stream. For the initial deployments, while diversification across industries is a goal, data centers are moving fastest and will likely dominate the near-term mix. The 50 MW reactor is seeing more pull from data centers, while the 15 MW reactor is well-suited for various industrial applications.

Craig Shere inquired about the future capital strategy for funding the fuel recycling business and whether the Atomic Alchemy acquisition could aid in securing project financing. He also asked about the expected customer and reactor size mix for the first 5 to 10 powerhouses.

Answer

CFO Richard Bealmear and CEO Jacob Dewitte clarified that fuel recycling is a future growth driver that would likely be funded via a separate capital raise, supported by its own value streams like co-product sales. Dewitte added that while data centers are the fastest-moving sector and favor the 50 MW design, Oklo intends to maintain a diversified customer base across industries to leverage both its 15 MW and 50 MW solutions.

Craig Shere asked if Golar would consider divesting the Gimi FLNG given its lack of commodity upside and whether a future GTA expansion could include such terms. He also sought clarification on the company's growth strategy sequence, from ordering long-lead items to committing to a fourth and fifth FLNG unit.

Answer

CEO Karl Fredrik Staubo explained that the Gimi contract was crucial as a proof of concept for BP and the industry, and there are no current plans to divest it. He noted that any incremental capacity at GTA would likely come at a higher tariff, with the mix between fixed fees and commodity linkage being a point of negotiation. Staubo confirmed the growth sequence: secure long-lead items, order unit #4 upon sufficient comfort, secure a long-term contract for it, and only then order unit #5, all while ensuring the balance sheet is never challenged.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers Investment Research Inc. asked about NuScale's capacity to handle concurrent orders and how it would prioritize them. He also questioned if the upcoming ramp in spending makes the second half of 2025 a critical period to secure a customer order to absorb costs.

Answer

President & CEO John Hopkins affirmed their manufacturing model supports multiple projects but the immediate priority is securing the first hard contract. CFO Ramsey Hamady addressed the spending ramp by stating it's a measured approach to invest in long-lead materials to expedite the first delivery, not to build a speculative inventory. He emphasized that contracts include flexibility and they are carefully managing shareholder funds.

Craig Shere questioned NuScale's capacity to support two concurrent projects in the early 2030s and asked for the rationale behind continuing to use its ATM program given its strong liquidity position.

Answer

CEO John Hopkins affirmed they have the capacity for concurrent projects, citing Doosan's ability to produce 20 modules per year and a broad supplier base. CFO Ramsey Hamady added that while they model conservatively, a firm contract would spur further supply chain investment. Regarding the ATM, Hamady explained it's part of a conservative cash management strategy to maintain a two-year operating runway, ensuring they are not solely dependent on the timing of commercial deals.

Craig Shere asked if recent legislation could moderate long-term U.S. growth, whether the company's geographic mix could shift towards 50% Europe, and about the timing and Ameresco's potential role (e.g., EPC) in small modular reactor (SMR) deployments.

Answer

George Sakellaris, Chairman, CEO & President, responded that while Europe (currently 20% of backlog) is expected to grow faster, the U.S. market is also expanding due to rising energy prices and reliability needs. On SMRs, he sees Ameresco's ideal projects in the $100M-$300M range, where the company would likely act as the EPC contractor for the associated power generation and storage infrastructure, leveraging its experience from other large, complex projects.

Craig Shere questioned how NFE plans to bridge its LNG supply needs before its long-term Venture Global contracts commence. He also asked if management believes any perceived 'noise' around the company's liquidity and balance sheet could impact regulatory decisions in upcoming Puerto Rico and Brazil auctions.

Answer

Executive Wesley Edens responded that the company is well-positioned on supply, with volumes from FLNG 1 performing at nameplate capacity and expected to improve. He asserted that NFE has a very viable business with over $1 billion in liquidity and significant, hard-to-replicate infrastructure in place, making its competitive position strong and mitigating concerns about balance sheet perceptions in regulatory processes.

Craig Shere asked about the pricing mechanism for the long-term Puerto Rico contract, specifically the transition from diesel-linked to Henry Hub-based pricing, and confirmed if the $110 million payment was included in the 2025 EBITDA guidance.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Wesley Edens confirmed that a new long-term contract would likely be Henry Hub-based, as the diesel-link was an artifact of a previous savings initiative. He expressed confidence in maintaining respectable margins under a Henry Hub-plus structure. He also explicitly confirmed that the $110 million payment is included in the $1 billion guided 2025 EBITDA.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers asked if NFE's long-term business model has shifted away from its historical build-and-monetize strategy towards a more stable, modelable operation by 2026. He also questioned the potential impact of a new U.S. administration on LNG liquefaction and long-term pricing, and how that might benefit NFE's downstream assets.

Answer

CEO Wesley Edens clarified that the core strategy remains unchanged: creating stable, long-term cash flows by matching gas supply with downstream demand, which he called the 'holy grail of an infrastructure investment.' He stated the goal is to realize the sum-of-the-parts value through strategic partnerships or asset sales. Edens also agreed that a more favorable political landscape for LNG exports would likely lower commodity prices, benefiting their downstream customer business and unlocking value in their underutilized assets.

Craig Shere asked about the outlook for downstream growth in 2025 beyond Nicaragua, questioning if it would be constrained by LNG supply and how that dynamic might change in 2026-2027. He also sought to clarify if the effective netback from FLNG 1 is additive to the company's average downstream margin.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Wesley Edens stated that while the LNG market will remain tight through 2026, making the FLNG 1 asset highly valuable, a more normalized market is expected in 2027 and beyond. He emphasized that the company's extensive downstream portfolio provides significant organic growth opportunities. Edens clarified that the FLNG's economic benefit is already integrated into the company's overall $7 average margin, not additive to it, reinforcing the 'rock solid' $1.3 billion EBITDA guidance.

Asked about the potential to accelerate the conversion of power projects to RNG, concerns about a worst-case commodity price scenario (low oil, high gas) impacting adoption, and whether customers would accept longer 4-5 year paybacks on new trucks.

Answer

The company is excited about accelerating conversions and has the flexibility to do so based on policy and market conditions. They are not concerned about a long-term negative commodity spread, believing North American natural gas will remain structurally cheaper than oil. They believe customers will accept 4-5 year paybacks, especially with longer-term contracts and better visibility on residual values, and noted that the economics of CNG are improving independently of RNG incentives.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers followed up on the Cummins 15-liter engine, asking about the potential for securing significant, front-loaded, multi-year fueling agreements. He also questioned how a recovery in LCFS pricing might influence OPAL's future project weighting.

Answer

Co-CEO Adam Comora explained that current fueling agreements are typically with private, dedicated fleets that sign long-term contracts for specific sites, and broader multi-location programs would likely follow initial testing phases. Co-CEO Jonathan Maurer addressed the LCFS market, clarifying that OPAL remains principally a landfill-gas company, with most credits being RIN-based. He noted that higher LCFS prices would primarily benefit the downstream fueling business in California rather than significantly altering their upstream project development mix.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers Investment Banking asked if the LNG carrier acquisition for conversion would be a modest cost and questioned the company's confidence in securing shipyard access. He also noted that commentary on growth projects had become more vague and asked if it was reasonable to expect one or two significant opportunities to be finalized by year-end.

Answer

CEO Steven Kobos stated that they are considering all types of vessels and would not take options off the table regarding cost, while expressing high confidence in their ability to secure shipyard capacity. On growth projects, he confirmed they are actively pursuing near-term opportunities and are 'paddling hard beneath the surface,' but could not include them in guidance until they are finalized.

Craig Shere questioned the catalyst for reducing the 'stubbornly high' C-corp cash balance to a more sustainable level. He also asked for clarification on the math behind the prospective 90+ MTPA enterprise platform and the ultimate potential capacity of the Corpus Christi site.

Answer

EVP and CFO Zach Davis responded that the cash balance will be methodically deployed to fund over $2 billion in 2025 CapEx while continuing opportunistic buybacks. President and CEO Jack Fusco explained the 90+ MTPA potential includes an additional 20 MTPA at the Corpus Christi site, enabled by a recent 500-acre land acquisition. Mr. Davis added this growth would be pursued in phases, contingent on achieving target returns of 6x-7x CapEx to EBITDA.

Craig Shere asked about the strategy for funding future growth given the high corporate cash balance and whether Cheniere's emissions work could mitigate the need for CCS under a stricter regulatory regime.

Answer

EVP and CFO Zach Davis responded that the plan is to continue deploying capital at a pace likely exceeding distributable cash flow to reduce the cash balance toward its $1B+ target, funding buybacks and Stage 3. President and CEO Jack Fusco stated that Cheniere's science-based, data-driven approach to emissions measurement positions it well for any future regulatory environment, providing a potential advantage over peers.

Craig Shere followed up on the nuclear topic, asking if different SMR technologies affect Chart's offerings, and also inquired if the high water usage of data centers creates a multi-segment opportunity for the company.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko confirmed Chart can serve various SMR technologies and noted increased activity in Europe. On data centers, she agreed it is a broad opportunity, with Chart providing air coolers for heat rejection and solutions for water treatment. She described the linkage between data centers and their water treatment business as being in 'early days' but affirmed the company is well-positioned to capitalize on it.

Craig Shere requested clarification on the free cash flow bridge, specifically the 'long-term balance sheet changes' and how to reconcile second-half cash tailwinds with the reduced full-year guidance.

Answer

CEO Jillian Evanko explained the 'long-term' items are mainly deferred tax changes beyond one year and are excluded from their annual cash outlook. While two specific project payments are tailwinds for H2, the full-year free cash flow guidance was lowered to reflect the reduced EBITDA outlook and to build in a more conservative buffer for potential timing movements.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers asked if a relaxation in drilling or LNG permitting regulations could create upside for the recent acquisitions and enhance ONEOK's interest in liquids exports.

Answer

Sheridan Swords, Executive Vice President, agreed that regulatory relaxation would create upside, particularly for the acquired EnLink assets in Louisiana, which are well-positioned to serve as the 'last mile' to LNG facilities. He added that as U.S. energy production grows, exports will be necessary, and ONEOK will evaluate expanding its export capabilities at the appropriate time.

Craig Shere of Tuohy Brothers Investment Research, Inc. asked about confidence in European buyers returning for long-term contracts in H1 2023, given a recent slowdown in signings. He also questioned if Cheniere is being shortlisted by Europeans due to its reliability and clean energy focus.

Answer

EVP and CCO Anatol Feygin tempered expectations, stating that while Cheniere is in discussions with European buyers, he expects such counterparties to be 'few and far between.' He reiterated that the Asian market remains the primary driver for long-term contracting growth and does not anticipate a large number of European utilities signing long-term deals, despite Cheniere's critical role in supplying the region.

Craig Shere asked about the impact of a temporary NGPL force majeure, the remaining CapEx for Corpus Christi Train 3 and Sabine Pass Train 6, and whether the asymmetric upside on spot prices effectively creates a floor for the company's guidance.

Answer

EVP & CCO Anatol Feygin called the NGPL force majeure a 'non-issue.' EVP & CFO Michael Wortley provided CapEx figures of approximately $600M for Corpus Train 3 and $1.4B for Sabine Pass Train 6. He also confirmed that the asymmetric market sensitivity, with more upside than downside, makes it unlikely they would miss guidance due to marketing performance.