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Damian McNeela

Director and Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Numis

Damian McNeela is a Director and Equity Research Analyst at Deutsche Numis, specializing in consumer staples and tobacco sectors with direct coverage of companies such as Philip Morris International, Associated British Foods, Cranswick, and Bakkavor. He has delivered high-performing recommendations with documented success rates up to 100% and individual stock returns exceeding 24%, though aggregate returns vary across platforms, reflecting both positive and negative performance metrics. McNeela began his analyst career at Panmure Gordon in 2007, followed by roles at HSBC Bank and Numis Securities before joining Deutsche Numis in 2024. He is known for his in-depth coverage in UK and US markets, but specific securities licenses or regulatory credentials are not disclosed publicly.

Damian McNeela's questions to Philip Morris International (PM) leadership

Damian McNeela's questions to Philip Morris International (PM) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Damian McNeela from Deutsche Numis asked about the visibility and confidence behind the expected Q4 inventory adjustments for both IQOS and ZYN. He also inquired about the long-term sustainable price premium for ZYN in the U.S.

Answer

Emmanuel Babeau, Chief Financial Officer, explained that for IQOS, Q4 shipments are expected to align with accelerating in-market sales, with a potential modest reduction in channel inventory, leading to an estimated $2 billion adjustment. For ZYN, he noted an expected 20-30 million can inventory reduction at wholesaler/distributor levels, delayed from Q3 but still anticipated in Q4, though with slightly less certainty. Regarding ZYN's sustainable price premium, Babeau stated that while he couldn't provide a specific number, ZYN's growth and unique consumer connection in the U.S. justify and will maintain a 'very nice premium.'

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Damian McNeela's questions to Philip Morris International (PM) leadership • Q3 2025

Question

Damian McNeela with Deutsche Numis asked about the degree of visibility and confidence regarding the expected Q4 inventory adjustments for both IQOS and ZYN. He also inquired about the long-term sustainable price premium for ZYN in the U.S.

Answer

Emmanuel Babeau, CFO, stated that for IQOS, he expects shipments to align broadly with IMS in Q4, potentially slightly below IMS for the full year, with an estimated $2 billion adjustment for Q4. For ZYN, he anticipates a 20-30 million can inventory reduction in the coming months, delayed from Q3, but noted that September's high promotional activity made the Q4 timing less certain. Regarding ZYN's long-term price premium, he declined to provide a specific number but affirmed that ZYN's growth, brand strength, and consumer connection justify and will maintain a 'very nice premium' in the U.S. market.

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Damian McNeela's questions to British American Tobacco (BTI) leadership

Damian McNeela's questions to British American Tobacco (BTI) leadership • H1 2025

Question

Damian McNeela of Deutsche Numis asked for more detail on the vape business performance in the AME region, particularly in Canada and the UK, and inquired about the expected on-the-ground impact of the 40% reduction in illicit U.S. vape shipments.

Answer

CEO Tadeu Marroco explained that AME's vape performance was heavily impacted by Canada's flavor ban and lack of enforcement, which fueled the illicit market. He noted a positive trend in Europe of consumers shifting to closed systems, where BAT has a stronger share. Regarding the U.S., he stated it's difficult to predict the timing of on-the-ground impact from reduced illicit shipments due to long supply chains, but noted the new administration's focus on enforcement is an encouraging sign.

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Damian McNeela's questions to ALTRIA GROUP (MO) leadership

Damian McNeela's questions to ALTRIA GROUP (MO) leadership • Q2 2025

Question

Damian McNeela asked for details on Altria's second-half plans for the ON! nicotine pouch brand, including marketing activation and current U.S. distribution levels. He also requested an explanation for the strong performance of the Middleton cigar brand.

Answer

CEO Billy Gifford expressed confidence in sustaining ON!'s momentum through brand equity-building activations but did not detail future plans or distribution metrics. CFO Sal Mancuso explained that Middleton's volume increase reflects its dominant position in the large mass machine-made cigar category, though quarterly results can be affected by inventory movements.

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