Dan Arias

Dan Arias asked about the extent to which onshoring demand could impact Mettler-Toledo's business in 2026 versus 2027 and beyond, particularly for products that might be adopted earlier in the process. He also sought a comparison of expectations for China's lab/biopharma side versus the industrial side for next year, considering macro headwinds.

Answer

Patrick Kaltenbach, Chief Executive Officer, stated Mettler-Toledo is well-positioned to benefit from re- and onshoring activities in pharma, semiconductor, and other sectors, with about 50% of sales in production and QA/QC. He expects a gradual, multi-year effect, with moderate impact in 2026 and more in 2027, emphasizing early engagement with customers. Shawn Vadala, Chief Financial Officer, projected low single-digit growth for both lab and industrial businesses in China for 2026. He noted potential upside for lab from the latest Pharmacopeia update and GLP-1 investments, while industrial saw growth in Q3 for the first time in two years, indicating positive execution.

Dan Arias asked about the extent to which onshoring demand could impact Mettler-Toledo's business in 2026 versus 2027 and beyond, particularly for products that might be involved in earlier stages of such initiatives. He also sought a comparison of expectations for the lab/biopharma side versus the industrial side in China for next year, considering macro headwinds.

Answer

Patrick Kaltenbach, CEO, stated that Mettler-Toledo is well-positioned to benefit from re- and onshoring activities in pharma and semiconductor sectors, but expects a gradual, multi-year journey with moderate impact in 2026 and more significant effects in 2027. He emphasized early engagement with customers during the planning phase. Shawn Vadala, CFO, projected low single-digit growth for both lab and industrial businesses in China for 2026, noting potential upsides for lab from the latest Pharmacopeia update and GLP-1 investments, and highlighting the industrial business's return to growth in China in Q3 2025 after two years.

Dan Arias inquired about Tempus AI's R&D investments in MRD, specifically asking about data to look out for next year, given the anticipated influx of high-sensitivity assays into the market over the next 12-18 months.

Answer

CEO Eric Lefkofsky confirmed Tempus AI's continuous release of publications, posters, and presentations. Regarding MRD, he highlighted ongoing studies for their tumor-naive assay in non-small cell lung cancer and a re-evaluation of CRC work, with interesting data expected next year for both. He anticipates hitting 'super powerful' metrics on the tumor-naive side, allowing them to compete effectively with tumor-informed assays due to internal enhancements by their large technical team. For tumor-informed MRD, he deferred to Personalis for their roadmap.

Dan Arias inquired about Tempus AI's R&D investments in MRD, specific data milestones to look out for next year, and the competitive landscape with other high-sensitivity assays entering the market.

Answer

Eric Lefkofsky (CEO, Tempus AI) noted constant publications and presentations. For tumor-naive MRD, he mentioned ongoing studies in CRC and non-small cell lung cancer, with interesting data expected next year, potentially extending into early 2027 for other disease areas. He believes their tumor-naive assay is achieving powerful metrics to compete with tumor-informed assays due to internal enhancements, deferring to Personalis for their tumor-informed roadmap.

Dan Arias from Stifel Financial Corp. asked for expectations on data business growth for the second half of the year, noting that the growth rate had ticked down sequentially and faces tougher year-over-year comparisons in Q3 and Q4.

Answer

CFO Jim Rogers affirmed the full-year guidance of around 30% growth for the data business. He acknowledged that the 40% growth rate is not sustainable and a 'tick down' is expected, but growth would still be robust. He also pointed to seasonality, with Q4 typically being the largest revenue quarter. CEO Eric Lefkofsky added that the company does not provide quarterly guidance by business unit.

Dan Arias followed up on the biosimilar opportunity, asking about the extent to which pill count increases, rather than just dollar sales, underpin the incrementally larger opportunity each year, and the margin impact of new products coming to market over the next 12 months.

Answer

CEO Udit Batra explained that increased biosimilar availability, driven by analytical characterization replacing clinical studies, would lower prices, increase access, and significantly boost penetration and volume (pill count) for advanced therapies globally, improving patient health. CFO Amol Chaubal stated that new products, a healthy mix of bioanalytical characterization, bioseparations (chemistry), and Empower (software), are meaningfully accretive to gross margin. He added that while new instruments aren't fully value-engineered initially, products like Alliance iS and TQ Absolute are now due for value engineering, which will contribute to margin accretion.

Dan Arias followed up on the biosimilar opportunity, asking about the extent to which pill count increases underpin the projected revenue growth over the next few years, and how this translates into an incrementally larger volume opportunity for Waters. He also inquired about the potential margin impact of new products coming to market over the next 12 months.

Answer

President and CEO Udit Batra explained that increased biosimilar availability, driven by reduced clinical study requirements and reliance on bioanalytical characterization, would lower prices, increase access, and significantly boost penetration and volume growth for advanced therapies, benefiting patient health globally. CFO Amol Chaubal noted that new products are a healthy mix of bioanalytical characterization, bioseparations (Chemistry), and Empower (software), which are meaningfully accretive to gross margin, offsetting any initial lower margins from instrument-related new products that are not yet fully value-engineered.

Dan Arias asked about the cadence of Repligen's order momentum during Q3 and exiting the quarter, inquiring how recent industry developments and China's projection impact purchasing activity and the company's positioning for next year.

Answer

Olivier Loeillot, President and CEO, confirmed strong Q3 order growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential order growth across all franchises. He noted consistent growth throughout Q3, a recovery in small biotech business to a three-year high, and China's return to sales growth, with expectations for full recovery in 2026.

Dan Arias asked about the cadence of order momentum across Q3 and beyond, recent positive industry developments, the offset from China's projection, overall purchasing activity, and how this positions Repligen for 2026 expectations.

Answer

President and CEO Olivier Loeillot reported that Q3 orders grew over 20% year-over-year, marking the second consecutive quarter of such growth and the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential order growth, with all franchises growing double digits. He noted consistent growth across July, August, and September, indicating a return to normal operating environments. Small biotech showed a strong recovery, reaching its highest level in three years. Geographically, China's sales grew nicely for the first time in several quarters, though orders were softer, with expectations for a return to growth in 2026.

Dan Arias requested clarification on the updated guidance, asking if the 1% headwind was solely due to a specific gene therapy platform or if it reflected a broader adjustment for the entire new modalities sector.

Answer

CEO Olivier Loeillot confirmed the 1% headwind is from one specific platform. He emphasized that the company's overall guidance was raised due to broad-based portfolio strength, particularly in the monoclonal antibody market, which more than compensates for this specific issue. He added that while new modality growth is expected to be muted in the second half, the rest of the portfolio is performing strongly.

Dan Arias asked about the Genomics England contributions, specifically how to model the initial $10 million in H2 sequentially into 2026 and if stability is expected into the first half of 2026.

Answer

Senior Vice President and CFO Max Krakowiak clarified that the $10 million was for the initial second-half contribution, with a sequential pickup expected in Q4. He anticipates a consistent quarterly number for 2026 without much further ramp. Arias also asked for elaboration on the biotech element of pharma and biotech comments, specifically if the incremental enthusiasm was from larger or smaller/emerging biotech players. President and CEO Prahlad Singh clarified that most of the observed activity was with larger and mid-sized biotech companies, which are Revvity's traditional customers, rather than smaller ones.

Dan Arias asked for an update on the risk of the business being impacted by China's Volume-Based Procurement (VBP) policies. He also sought to confirm the expected revenue contribution from the Genomics England contract in the second half.

Answer

CEO Prahlad Singh reiterated that the current headwind is from DRG policy, not VBP, though the government's overall goal is cost reduction. CFO Max Krakowiak confirmed that an assumption of approximately $10 million in revenue from the Genomics England contract in the second half, weighted to Q4, is appropriate.

Dan Arias inquired about the demand from small and emerging biotech companies, asking if spending is loosening up given the improved BTK index. He also asked about China's pricing initiatives, specifically on the research and industrial side, and whether these dynamics introduce additional risk or are expected to remain stable into year-end and early 2026.

Answer

Marc Casper (Chairman, President and CEO) noted a strong quarter for biotech, observing nice momentum in clinical research and early activities in pharma services. He found the M&A transactions by large pharma acquiring biotech encouraging, as they help the ecosystem and drive reinvestment. Regarding China, Mr. Casper stated it's a smaller percentage of total company revenue. He noted academic and government benefited from stimulus but faced pressure from economic challenges, while pharma and biotech grew modestly. Overall, China declined mid-single digits, an improvement from Q2 due to the absence of April trade activity secession. He expects full-year China to be down mid to high single digits, with less government pricing impact in industrial/pharma/biotech compared to diagnostics.

Dan Arias inquired about the impact of macro factors on biopharma spending and what characteristics distinguish companies that are investing versus those pulling back. He also asked for the growth outlook for the Analytical Instruments business in the second half of 2025, given its recent performance and upcoming comps.

Answer

CEO Marc Casper described the tone from biopharma customers as 'incredibly positive,' stating they are 'leaning in' and partnering with Thermo Fisher, leading to broad strength across the segment. CFO Stephen Williamson noted that while the Analytical Instruments business is impacted by muted academic and China markets, it has a positive book-to-bill and could see upside if the tariff situation remains better than the company's conservative guidance assumes.

Dan Arias from Stifel Financial Corp. questioned why the company guided towards the low end of its system placement range despite encouraging commentary on pharma build-outs, and also asked about the stability and growth outlook for the consumables business.

Answer

CFO Sean Wirtjes explained the cautious guidance reflects near-term uncertainty in the sales funnel conversion timeline, influenced by global trade dynamics. He added that the consumables business is performing well and is expected to see sequential revenue growth in both Q3 and Q4, supported by new high-volume sites coming online, which helps maintain the full-year total revenue guidance.

Dan Arias of Stifel asked about the company's fixed cost base and whether Maravai can evolve to better absorb top-line revenue fluctuations, or if high fixed costs are inherent to the business model.

Answer

CEO Bernd Brust acknowledged that the significant infrastructure built in recent years creates a 'hangover' during revenue downturns. He noted that while some costs are being eliminated, they are also retaining some facility space for strategic optionality, such as supporting foreign partners. CFO Raj Asarpota added that these actions will improve margin flexibility.

Dan Arias inquired about the strategic rationale and timing of the Scale Biosciences acquisition and how the company will position its Chromium and Scale product lines for customers.

Answer

CEO Serge Saxonov explained that the acquisition is a strategic technology purchase designed to accelerate 10x's ability to lower costs and increase the scale of single-cell analysis, especially with the rise of AI applications. He stated that while some Scale products will remain, the primary goal is to integrate Scale's technology into the 10x roadmap to deliver more value to customers.

An analyst on behalf of Dan Arias asked about the sales decline in the EMEA region, whether this trend is expected to continue, and the underlying factors holding back customer spending in Europe.

Answer

CEO Serge Saxonov advised against over-indexing on a single quarter's results due to order timing, stating the fundamental business in Europe remains strong. He acknowledged a tougher CapEx environment but noted that the European CapEx sales team is now fully staffed after the commercial reorganization, which provides optimism for future performance.

Dan Arias from Stifel Financial Corp. sought more detail on the sources of academic funding, asking where the two-thirds of non-NIH funding for its academic customers originates. He also inquired about the Wilson Wolf business, specifically whether it is being managed to trigger the EBITDA threshold for an earlier acquisition.

Answer

CFO James Hippel explained that based on industry surveys, less than a third of total academic research funding comes from the NIH, with the rest from other federal and private sources. President & CEO Kim Kelderman commented on Wilson Wolf, noting that hitting the EBITDA threshold for an early acquisition is "going to be close" and that the company is hopeful it will be achieved sooner than the end of calendar 2027.

Dan Arias of Stifel asked about the sustainability of the 30%+ gigabase (GB) growth rate in the high-throughput segment for the remainder of the year and whether the company's long-term 2026 framework remains intact.

Answer

CFO Ankur Dhingra expressed confidence that GB growth can remain above 30%, citing strong structural drivers in the clinical market like MRD testing and improving reimbursement for genetic disease tests. CEO Jacob Thaysen added that the total market opportunity is tremendous and will continue to expand into new areas like cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases, supporting robust long-term growth.

Dan Arias of Stifel Financial Corp. pressed for more clarity on the timing of the Shield V2 data, asking if the delay was due to ongoing internal work or a strategic decision to de-emphasize its urgency.

Answer

Co-CEO AmirAli Talasaz acknowledged the high interest but remained vague on a specific timeline, stating it is a 'very active program' with significant work ongoing. He noted that the commercial success of the current Shield version gives them the flexibility to balance R&D initiatives, such as pulling forward the MCD clinical validation, and that they do not feel rushed to release the V2 data.