Dan Brennan

Dan Brennan asked for color on Signatera's key growth drivers as of late 2025 and what's baked into the 2026 sequential growth, including observations across the landscape like IMvigor011's impact on bladder cancer. He also requested a modeling bridge for 2026 between Women's Health and Organ Health, covering price, volume, and total revenue, with specific attention to Women's Health seasonality.

Answer

Steve Chapman (CEO, Natera) attributed Signatera's growth to a 'flywheel effect' from over 100 peer-reviewed papers, a large commercial and medical affairs team, high physician adoption (over 50% ordering), and continuous investment in new clinical trials and product portfolio expansion (Signatera Genome, Latitude). He noted IMvigor011's momentum in bladder and recent ASCO GU data for bladder preservation. Michael Brophy (CFO, Natera) stated that Prospera (Organ Health) is expected to continue its secular growth trend (over 50% in 2025, another strong year in 2026). For Women's Health, he anticipates mid-single-digit volume growth with potential for better revenue from pricing gains, confirming typical seasonality with Q1 as a strong volume quarter, Q2 down sequentially, and recovery in Q3 and Q4.

Dan Brennan asked for color on the key drivers of Signatera's growth across tumor types as Natera exited 2025 and looks into 2026, specifically mentioning the impact of IMvigor011 in bladder cancer. He also requested a modeling bridge for women's health and organ health businesses in 2026, including insights on price, volume, and total revenue, considering women's health seasonality.

Answer

Steve Chapman (CEO, Natera) explained that Signatera's growth is driven by a 'flywheel effect' encompassing over 100 peer-reviewed papers, a large commercial and medical affairs team, high physician adoption (over 50% ordering), and continuous investment in new clinical trials and product portfolio expansion (Signatera Genome, Latitude). He noted IMvigor011's momentum in bladder and recent bladder preservation data. Michael Brophy (CFO, Natera) stated that Prospera (organ health) is expected to continue its secular growth, similar to its 50%+ growth in 2025. For women's health, Q1 is typically a strong quarter, with mid-single-digit volume growth expected and potential for better revenue growth due to pricing gains.

Dan Brennan, represented by Kyle, inquired about the specific factors contributing to Seer's fourth-quarter 2025 revenue falling below guidance, particularly asking if NIH funding delays or project slips into 2026 were significant. He also questioned the conservative 2026 revenue guidance despite strong 2025 momentum in instrument placements, large-scale studies, and publications. Finally, he asked about additional factors limiting adoption beyond funding and customer feedback from the growing installed base of over 80 instruments.

Answer

David Horn, President and CFO, explained that Q4 2025 revenue was impacted by delayed NIH funding, causing a customer to postpone a purchase. Omid Farokhzad, Founder, Chairman, and CEO, addressed the 2026 guidance, attributing conservatism to the 'activation energy' required for customers to shift from familiar targeted proteomics to Seer's untargeted mass spectrometry approach, despite increasing scientific validation. He noted potential upside from unguided population-scale studies. Farokhzad further elaborated that customer feedback, reflected in 70 publications, highlights the profound biological insights from Seer's technology, driving large-scale biobank studies and demonstrating the value of untargeted proteomics. Horn added that the company continues to drive commercial efforts with growing evidence and customer references.

Dan Brennan from TD Cowen inquired about factors driving Agilent to the higher or lower end of its full-year guidance and sought more color on the strong performance and outlook for the Chemicals and Advanced Materials (CAM) business.

Answer

President and CEO Padraig McDonnell expressed confidence, citing innovative products and robust funnels. CFO Adam Elinoff detailed upside drivers (biotech pickup, academia stability, China stimulus) and downside risks. Padraig McDonnell explained CAM's strength from semiconductor reshoring and market leadership.

Dan Brennan asked about the full-year guidance, specifically what factors would drive Agilent to the higher or lower end of the range, given the company's historical trend of often exceeding guidance. He also requested more detail on the strong performance of the CAM segment, particularly the advanced materials subsegment, and the outlook for its continued growth throughout the year.

Answer

President and CEO Padraig McDonnell expressed confidence in the year, citing innovative products, strong commercial teams, enterprise service capabilities, and robust funnels. CFO Adam S. Elinoff detailed upside drivers for the forecast: a pickup in the small and mid-cap biotech sector, more stability in academia and government, and a potential larger stimulus in China. Downside risks included continued pressure in small/mid-cap biotech, worsening academia/government conditions, or a decline in China. Padraig McDonnell highlighted CAM's 9% growth, with advanced materials growing 20%, driven by Agilent's leadership in semiconductor reshoring, critical spectroscopy and GC-MS tools, increased clarity on tariff policies, and strong demand for memory chips. He expects this secular driver to continue throughout the year.

Dan Brennan asked for a high-level overview of the 2026 guidance (4-6% core growth), questioning if it prudently balances global puts and takes or if it contains conservatism. He also sought more color on the GC upgrade cycle, its progression versus expectations, and assumptions for its ratable contribution in 2026.

Answer

President and CEO Padraig McDonnell stated the 4-6% guide is prudent given macro uncertainty and tougher comparisons, but highlighted strong momentum from innovative products, unified sales, and Ignite. He noted potential upside from a broadening pharma recovery and China stimulus (not in the guide). President of the Applied Markets Group Mike Zhang confirmed high single-digit growth in GC for Q4 and described the GC replacement cycle as normalized and returning to pace. He emphasized Agilent's large, aging install base as a sustainable tailwind and new innovation under Ignite to further sustain the cycle.

Dan Brennan asked for a high-level assessment of the 4-6% core growth guide for 2026, questioning if it prudently balances global puts and takes or if there's conservatism. He also sought more color on the GC upgrade cycle, its progression versus expectations, and assumptions for its ratable contribution in 2026.

Answer

President and CEO Padraig McDonnell described the 4-6% guide as prudent given macro uncertainty, noting strong momentum from 2025 and improving key markets. He highlighted potential upside from a broadening pharma recovery and China stimulus not included in the guide. Mike Zhang, President of the Applied Markets Group, stated that the GC replacement cycle has normalized, with a large, aging install base creating a sustainable tailwind, and new innovations are expected to further sustain this cycle.

Dan Brennan from TD Cowen inquired about the status of Tempus AI's first-generation Colorectal Cancer (CRC) assay with MolDx. He also asked about the expected performance advantage of the next-generation tumor-naive assay, given filings for two tumor types this year and two more mentioned in the letter, compared to the existing tumor-naive landscape.

Answer

Eric Lefkofsky, CEO of Tempus AI, stated that Tempus is in discussions with MolDx regarding the first-gen CRC assay, but its resolution timing is uncertain and not highly relevant to the current MRD offering, which is 95% tumor-informed. He explained that tumor-naive products need to continuously improve to compete, and in CRC, tumor-informed is expected to dominate for a while due to pervasive tissue availability. Lefkofsky noted that Tempus pivoted to developing a second-generation tumor-naive assay due to performance expectations, leveraging existing study samples for the new version, and expects a "really nice assay" eventually.

Dan Brennan inquired about the status of Tempus AI's first-generation CRC assay with MolDX and any expected performance advantages of the next-generation tumor-naive assay, particularly compared to the existing tumor-naive landscape, given filings for two tumor types this year and two more mentioned in the letter.

Answer

CEO Eric Lefkofsky stated that Tempus is in discussions with MolDX regarding the first-gen CRC assay, but its reimbursement timing is uncertain and not highly relevant to the current, largely tumor-informed MRD offering. He explained that the company pivoted to a second-generation tumor-naive assay due to the need for improved performance to compete, especially in subtypes like lung where tissue is sparse, and that the new version is progressing well.

Dan Brennan asked about the assumed volume growth for hereditary cancer in 2026, given the strong Q4 momentum and potentially easier comparisons. He also sought more color on the pricing headwind across the entire portfolio for 2026, inquiring if there were specific dynamics driving it. Finally, he asked if Myriad's model assumes MolDx coverage for Precise MRD in the second half of 2026 and if any revenue contribution from that coverage is included.

Answer

Ben Wheeler, CFO, indicated that Myriad anticipates high single-digit volume growth for the hereditary cancer portfolio in 2026, across both unaffected and affected markets, driven by Q4 momentum. Regarding pricing, Mr. Wheeler explained that a modest portfolio-wide ASP decline of 1-2% is expected, reflecting general price pressure in hereditary cancer and GeneSight dynamics, with Q3/Q4 2025 serving as a baseline. Sam Raha, President and CEO, clarified that Myriad is not assuming MolDx coverage for Precise MRD until sometime in 2027, and therefore, no revenue contribution from MRD is included in the 2026 financial guidance.

Dan Brennan asked about the assumed volume growth for hereditary cancer in 2026, given the strong Q4 momentum and easier comparisons. He also sought more color on the portfolio-wide pricing headwind anticipated for 2026. Finally, he inquired whether the 2026 model assumes MolDx coverage for MRD in the second half of the year and any associated revenue contribution.

Answer

Ben Wheeler, CFO, stated that Myriad Genetics anticipates high single-digit growth for the hereditary cancer portfolio (affected and unaffected) in 2026. Regarding pricing, Mr. Wheeler clarified that the portfolio-wide headwind is not due to a specific dynamic but general price pressure in hereditary cancer and GeneSight, leading to a modest 1-2% decline for the enterprise ASP, with FirstGene expected to modestly improve the prenatal portfolio ASP. Sam Raha, President and CEO, clarified that they are not assuming MolDx coverage for MRD until 2027 and no revenue contribution from MRD in the 2026 guidance.

Speaking for Dan Brennan, an analyst from TD Cowen asked for the drivers behind the company's confidence that Hereditary Cancer testing volumes can accelerate to low-double-digit growth, given that recent trends have been closer to mid-single-digits.

Answer

An executive explained that the overall Hereditary Cancer number has been partially dragged down by the BRACAnalysis CDx business, while the core MyRisk test is seeing stronger growth. President and CEO Paul Diaz added that the company has strategically focused on profitable revenue over pure volume, and expects share shifts from recent competitor disruptions to accelerate in 2025, boosting MyRisk adoption.

Dan Brennan asked about GeneDx's pricing strategy, specifically the implied flat pricing in the guidance, the long-term headroom for pricing beyond 2026, the influence of whole genomes versus exomes on pricing, and whether any Medi-Cal pricing is factored into the current outlook. He also requested more color on the relative contribution of neuro, prenatal, and NICU markets to the 7%-8% growth from expansion markets.

Answer

Kevin Feeley (CFO) confirmed that no Medi-Cal or new Medicaid state pricing is included in the guidance due to lack of public pricing and external control factors. He explained that conservative pricing assumptions for new outpatient markets reflect an expectation of initial high denial rates (similar to the 70% seen in pediatric neurology initially) that will improve over time. Regarding expansion market contributions, Mr. Feeley ranked the NICU at the top, citing early positive signs and increased utilization. Prenatal is expected to ramp later in the year with a small team, and general pediatricians have a more modest view, with the NICU projected to be the bulk of the growth for this layer in 2026.

Dan Brennan from TD Cowen asked about GeneDx's pricing outlook, specifically the headroom beyond 2026, the influence of genome/exome mix on pricing, and whether Medi-Cal pricing is included in the guidance. He also requested a breakdown of the 7-8% growth contribution from new expansion markets, particularly between pediatric neurology, prenatal, and NICU.

Answer

Kevin Feeley, CFO, stated that the guidance does not include Medi-Cal pricing or any new Medicaid state coverage, maintaining a conservative approach. He explained that pricing for new outpatient markets is modeled with initial high denial rates (similar to 70% seen in pediatric neurology in 2023) before improving, despite underlying policies suggesting better rates. Regarding growth drivers, Feeley indicated that the NICU is projected to be the largest contributor within the 7-8% expansion market growth, showing encouraging early signs, followed by prenatal ramping from Q2, and a modest view for general pediatricians.

Dan Brennan asked for an update on GeneDx's NICU performance in Q3, including its contribution to the implicit Q4 volume guide and early feedback. He also sought details on the drivers of Q3's better-than-expected performance, specifically regarding same-store sales growth, new indications, and new doctors, and how these factors inform the Q4 guidance. Finally, Brennan requested clarification on the OpEx outlook, particularly the expectation for pediatrician volume growth by mid-2026 and the impact of the pediatrician call point.

Answer

Katherine Stueland, CEO and President, highlighted the NICU as a significant opportunity, noting fewer than 5% of babies receive genetic testing and confirming meaningful growth in same-store sales. Kevin Feeley, CFO, added that NICU volumes are growing nicely, tracking towards an incremental 2,000 units in H2 2025, mostly in Q4. He attributed Q3's strength to core outpatient markets, particularly expert geneticists and pediatric neurologists, with strong account activation. Feeley explained that OpEx investments, including building a dedicated general pediatrician sales team, are deliberate for long-term growth, expecting similar sequential OpEx growth from Q3 to Q4 while maintaining profitability.

Dan Brennan of TD Cowen asked about the NICU's contribution to Q3 2025 volumes and Q4 guidance, the drivers behind the better-than-expected Q3 performance, and the outlook for OpEx spending, particularly regarding the general pediatrician market.

Answer

Katherine Stueland, CEO and President, noted significant NICU growth and progress on Epic Aura integrations. Kevin Feeley, CFO, detailed that Q3 strength came from core outpatient markets, with strong conversion to exome/genome and pNeuro account activation. He outlined OpEx investments in a dedicated pediatrician sales team and R&D, expecting sequential OpEx growth to drive mid-2026 volume, while reaffirming profitability.

Dan Brennan asked how Medicare would view the NHS trial results for coverage, the collective decrease across Stage III and IV cancers, and the rationale behind the three-year design of the NHS trial.

Answer

President Josh Ofman explained that upon FDA approval, Medicare will conduct a national coverage analysis, and GRAIL will submit a robust package including all registrational trials and NHS-Galleri data. CSO Sir Harpal Kumar could not provide further detail on the combined Stage III/IV decrease beyond a favorable trend, with full results at ASCO. He noted the trial was designed six years ago with the best available information, but hindsight suggests a longer follow-up was needed, a point supported by recent publications.

Dan Brennan inquired how Medicare would view the NHS trial results, particularly clinical utility, for coverage decisions post-FDA approval, asked for clarification on the collective decrease across Stage 3 and Stage 4 cancers, and questioned the original decision-making for the three-year follow-up period in the NHS trial.

Answer

Joshua Ofman, President, stated that Medicare will initiate a national coverage analysis upon FDA approval, and GRAIL will submit a robust package including all trial data, real-world evidence, and the REACH study. Harpal Kumar, Chief Scientific Officer and President of International, could not provide further detail on combined Stage 3/4 reduction beyond a favorable trend, with full results at ASCO. He explained the three-year follow-up was based on the best information available six years ago, acknowledging that hindsight suggests a longer period, a point now supported by general screening study publications.

Dan Brennan asked about the conservatism in PanTracer LBx guidance, MolDX timing, and expected volume growth once reimbursement is secured, drawing comparisons to PanTracer Tissue's performance.

Answer

Tony Zook (CEO, NeoGenomics) explained that NeoGenomics has responded to all MolDX questions for LBx and is awaiting a decision, noting that MolDX approvals typically involve 4-5 turns over about 12 months. This led to prudent guidance with modest revenue for LBx in the second half of 2026. Warren Stone (Chief Commercial Officer, NeoGenomics) highlighted PanTracer Tissue's robust growth (doubling volumes from 2023-2024 and nearly doubling again from 2024-2025) as a potential predicate for LBx's future growth, emphasizing the recent launch of PanTracer Pro to further streamline solid tumor therapy selection.

Dan Brennan (TD Cowen) inquired about the conservative revenue guidance for PanTracer liquid, the expected growth trajectory once fully established, and the competitive landscape for both tissue CGP and liquid biopsy in the community setting.

Answer

CEO Tony Zook explained that MolDX responses for LBx are awaited, with a prudent approach to revenue inclusion for the latter half of 2026. He suggested PanTracer Tissue's doubling of volumes from 2023 to 2024 and 2024 to 2025 could be a decent predicate for LBx's long-term growth. Chief Commercial Officer Warren Stone noted an acceleration across the category since PanTracer liquid's launch, with attractive uptake and the recent launch of PanTracer Pro further strengthening the solid tumor therapy selection portfolio. He added that the competitive landscape in the community setting remains consistent, with NeoGenomics' broad portfolio and focus on actionability and service driving success.

Representing Dan Brennan, Thomas Stevens asked about the growth outlook for NGS given a modest deceleration, and also inquired about the surprising strength of the base clinical business and the apparent lack of cannibalization.

Answer

CEO Chris Smith and CCO Warren Stone expressed confidence in the NGS runway, citing under-penetration in community oncology and the upcoming PanTracer liquid biopsy launch. Regarding the base business, Warren Stone explained that while some cannibalization occurs, it is more than offset by strong commercial execution, particularly a significantly improved customer retention rate which stabilizes the business.

Dan Brennan asked for color on PacBio's expectations for Revio and Vega placements and pull-through in 2026. Brennan also inquired about the company's cash burn target for 2026 and what factors would be necessary for U.S. clinical growth to accelerate, given the strong performance in EMEA.

Answer

Christian Henry, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated that Revio pull-through is expected to remain in the $225K-$250K range, with placements consistent or slightly better than 2025. For Vega, pull-through is estimated at $25K-$40K, with instrument placements expected to grow over 2025 levels, supported by faster sales cycles. Regarding cash burn for 2026, Henry expects it to be relatively consistent, potentially a touch higher due to alpha/beta builds of the next-generation system, which may involve cash outflow before capitalization. For U.S. clinical growth, Henry noted the market's focus on targeted sequencing panels and the current research/validation mode of larger laboratories. He believes recent demonstrations of favorable economics, faster turnaround times, and higher diagnostic yields are driving increased interest in whole genome approaches among U.S. children's hospitals and other accounts, presenting an opportunity for PacBio to capitalize on better funding availability.

Dan Brennan asked for color on Revio and Vega placements and pull-through expectations, the targeted cash burn for 2026, and what factors would be necessary to accelerate U.S. clinical growth, especially given the strong performance in EMEA.

Answer

Christian Henry, President and Chief Executive Officer, expects Revio pull-through to remain in the $225K-$250K range, with placements consistent or slightly better than 2025. Vega pull-through is estimated at $25K-$40K, with instrument placements expected to grow. He anticipates 2026 cash burn to be slightly higher due to alpha/beta builds of next-gen systems. For U.S. clinical growth, he highlighted the focus on targeted sequencing panels and the increasing interest from children's hospitals due to favorable economics and faster turnaround times.

Dan Brennan asked for the instrument growth or trend for the U.S. academic and government customer base in 2025 and what's assumed for 2026. He also sought clarification on whether multi-year funding is no longer a headwind and how to think about its impact in 2026. Finally, he asked for elaboration on the semiconductor business, noting its historical double-digit growth and the positive AI connection, despite a flat 2025 guide.

Answer

President and CEO Frank Laukien stated that U.S. academic and government bookings for 2025 were down in the high teens, with some quarters down over 20%. He admitted confusion regarding the exact impact of multi-year funding but noted that more funding into the system generally alleviates pressure. He clarified that the 'flat' outlook for academic/government in 2026 was a global comment, and U.S. academic/government is still expected to be down organically in revenue for 2026. EVP and CFO Gerald Herman clarified that the semiconductor business was flat in 2025 but is expected to be up in the low single-digit range for 2026. He reiterated that no significant growth is expected for BSI Gov globally or in the U.S. in the 2026 guide.

Dan Brennan from TD Cowen followed up on the semiconductor metrology business, noting its historical double-digit growth and positive AI connection, and asked for clarification on why the 2026 guide assumes flat growth.

Answer

Gerald Herman, EVP and CFO, clarified that semiconductor metrology revenue was flat for the full year 2025. For full year 2026, the guide actually expects low single-digit growth, not flat, indicating an improvement from the prior year.

Dan Brennan requested a more detailed bridge for Avantor's 2026 margin outlook, specifically asking for color on organic margins, the impact of investments, mix shifts, and other contributing factors. He also asked Emmanuel Ligner for his perspective on the VWR channel business outlook, including market share, competition with Thermo, and its sustainable growth and margin potential over the next few years.

Answer

Brent Jones, EVP and CFO, reiterated that the Q4 2025 exit rate is a crucial starting point for 2026 margins. He mentioned modest headwinds from incentive compensation reset and merit increases, partially offset by productivity actions, and highlighted mixed pieces in the Bioscience and Medtech business. Emmanuel Ligner, President and CEO, noted market stability after a challenging 2025 for the VWR business, with renewed important contracts. He emphasized competing 'vigorously but rationally,' investing in talent (new supplier relationship and pricing leaders), and upgrading e-commerce. He expressed encouragement from market feedback on the VWR brand relaunch and expects the business to exit 2026 on a more stable footing.

Dan Brennan requested a more detailed bridge for Avantor's 2026 margins, focusing on organic margins, investments, and mix. He also asked for an outlook on the Channel business (VWR), including market share, competition with Thermo, and its sustainable growth and margin potential over the next few years.

Answer

Brent Jones, EVP and CFO, reiterated using Q4 2025 exit rates as a grounding point for margin analysis, citing modest incentive compensation resets, merit increases, mixed pieces in Bioscience and Medtech, and pricing in the lab business as key factors, but did not provide a more granular bridge. Emmanuel Ligner, President and CEO, noted market stability for the Channel business after a challenging 2025, emphasizing rational but vigorous competition. He highlighted investments in talent and e-commerce, expressing encouragement from market feedback on the VWR relaunch and expecting the business to exit 2026 on a more stable footing.

Dan Brennan asked for clarification on the 2026 EBITDA guidance, specifically whether it refers to an exit quarter or the full year, the expected contributions from MRD versus Immune Medicine, and any anticipated changes or expansion in the sales force. He also questioned the assumptions for blood-based testing and community penetration in the 2026 guide, asking if there's potential for these to increase further than projected.

Answer

Kyle Piskel, CFO, Adaptive Biotechnologies, confirmed the EBITDA guide refers to an exit on Q4 for the entire company, with MRD already positive and expected to grow. Susan Bobulsky, Chief Commercial Officer of MRD, Adaptive Biotechnologies, stated that the current sales force of 65 reps is deemed appropriate for now, with no significant expansion planned, though deployment strategies will be evaluated. Regarding blood-based testing and community penetration, Ms. Bobulsky clarified that the company is not capping out and sees potential for further increases beyond the prudent initial guide, driven by factors like DLBCL growth, MIDAS data, guideline updates, and EMR integrations. Chad Robins, CEO and Co-Founder, Adaptive Biotechnologies, emphasized reinvestment in the five core growth drivers.

Dan Brennan inquired about the 2026 EBITDA guidance, seeking clarification on whether it implies positive EBITDA for Q4 exit or the full year, the breakdown between MRD and Immune Medicine, and any anticipated changes to the sales force size.

Answer

Kyle Piskel, CFO, clarified that the guidance implies positive adjusted EBITDA for the entire company by Q4 2026, with MRD already being positive and expected to grow. Susan Bobulsky, Chief Commercial Officer of MRD, stated that the current sales force of 65 reps (split between academic and community) is considered appropriate for now, with no significant expansion planned for 2026, though deployment strategies will be evaluated.

Dan Brennan asked if QuantiFERON's pricing strategy, including concessions for multi-year contracts, is a new approach or consistent with past market dynamics. He also inquired about how QIAGEN's ability to create value as a standalone company has changed given current market volatility and industry consolidation.

Answer

Thierry Bernard (CEO) clarified that QuantiFERON's pricing strategy, including flexibility for multi-year contracts and occasional concessions, is not new and has been transparently disclosed, aiming to secure customer loyalty amidst competition. He confirmed that overall QuantiFERON pricing was positive in 2025. Regarding QIAGEN's standalone value, he acknowledged increased market volatility, especially in research and academia, but emphasized QIAGEN's consistent execution of its 2024-2028 plan, strategic acquisitions (Franklin, Parse), and significant R&D investment (9-10% of sales) leading to new product launches. He asserted that market fundamentals remain strong, and QIAGEN is well-positioned to be a priority for labs when capital expenditure improves.

Dan Brennan asked if the pricing comments on QuantiFERON represented a new strategy to lock in customers with concessions or if it was consistent with past market behavior. He also inquired if anything has changed in the market dynamics over the last year or two that impacts QIAGEN's ability to succeed as a standalone company versus being part of a larger entity, despite its strong execution.

Answer

Thierry Bernard (CEO, QIAGEN) clarified that the pricing flexibility for QuantiFERON is not a new strategy but a transparent approach to secure multi-year contracts amidst increasing competition, while overall pricing for QuantiFERON remained positive in 2025. Regarding market dynamics, he acknowledged increased volatility in research and academia but emphasized QIAGEN's clear plan, strong execution, and continued investment in R&D (9-10% of sales) leading to new product launches. He asserted that the market's fundamentals remain strong, and QIAGEN is well-positioned with new solutions when capital expenditure improves.

Dan Brennan asked about Revvity's 2%-3% organic growth guidance for 2026, questioning its conservative nature given recent improvements in the biotech market and potential for upside, and also inquired about the drivers of strength in life science instruments and reagents, including preclinical spending recovery and market share potential.

Answer

Max Grykowiak, SVP and CFO, explained that the 2026 guidance is consistent with the September framework, acknowledging positive market signs and outlining multiple paths to potential upside in revenue (preclinical markets, software launches, newborn screening, China immunodiagnostics) and EPS (margin expansion, tax planning). He added that preclinical market momentum and continued share gains in reagents are expected to drive strength, with demand development off positive indicators.

Dan Brennan asked about the 2%-3% organic growth guidance for 2026, inquiring if it was conservative given recent market improvements like MFN deals and biotech funding, and what potential upside paths exist. He also asked about the drivers of strength in life science instruments and reagents, specifically preclinical spending recovery, potential for market share gains, and indicators to watch for a business upturn.

Answer

Max Krakowiak, SVP and CFO, explained that the 2026 guidance is consistent with the September framework, acknowledging positive market signs. He outlined multiple paths to upside: in life sciences, no improvement is modeled for preclinical markets (pharma, biotech, academic/government), new software product benefits are not fully embedded; in diagnostics, prudent assumptions are made for newborn screening and China Immunodiagnostics. For EPS, upside could come from incremental margin expansion and tax planning initiatives. Prahlad Singh, President and CEO, added that the improvement in pharma biotech reflects cautious optimism, consistency in order trending, and greater clarity in the policy and regulatory environment, rather than a budget flush. Max Krakowiak noted that life sciences solutions performed in line with expectations in Q4, with reagents slightly better and instruments significantly improved sequentially.

Dan Brennan sought confirmation on the Q1 2026 organic revenue growth assumption of approximately 1%. He then followed up on the biopharma end market, questioning if the guidance's assumption of unchanged market conditions was conservative, given strong Q4 growth and expectations for increased spending post-deals, or if it reflected Thermo Fisher's market outperformance.

Answer

Stephen Williamson, SVP and CFO, confirmed the Q1 organic revenue growth assumption of approximately 1%. Marc Casper, Chairman, President, and CEO, acknowledged the strong Q4 biopharma growth and the company's consistent share gains. He reiterated the prudent approach of starting with market conditions similar to last year, excluding pandemic runoff, with a goal to retire risk and move up in the range as the year progresses. He noted that strengthening biotech funding, with its typical six-month lag, bodes well for a strengthening environment into the following year.

Dan Brennan sought confirmation on the organic growth assumptions for 2026 (3%) and Q1 2026 (1%). He also followed up on the biopharma segment, questioning if the guidance's assumption of unchanged end market conditions was conservative, given strong Q4 growth and expectations for increased spending due to MFN deals.

Answer

Stephen Williamson, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, confirmed the organic growth assumptions for 2026 and Q1 2026. Marc Casper, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, acknowledged consistent share gains and reiterated starting the year with market conditions roughly similar to last year, without the pandemic revenue roll-off. He stated the goal is to retire risk and move up in the range as the year progresses, driven by strengthening conditions in pharma and biotech, particularly as biotech funding flows. He emphasized a prudent approach and the company's plan to deliver 6%-8% EPS growth plus capital deployment benefits.

Dan Brennan asked for further elaboration on the onshoring announcements, specifically how to quantify the incremental demand from CapEx, capacity, and drug volumes, distinguishing between greenfield and brownfield projects. He sought to understand the potential sizing and magnitude of this impact for Thermo Fisher, including equipment uptake in 2026.

Answer

Marc Casper (Chairman, President and CEO) clarified that onshoring generates incremental one-time demand for new equipment, initial stocking, and labs over the next few years, even if overall drug volumes remain constant. He highlighted Thermo Fisher's stronger current presence, particularly in bioproduction, Solventum filtration, and DynaSpin bioreactor technology, which positions them for a higher share in new facilities compared to existing ones. Mr. Casper noted that while he couldn't provide an aggregate number, it should be a tailwind for bioproduction, which is already performing exceptionally well with strong bookings. Stephen Williamson (SVP and CFO) addressed the EPS impact of tariffs, stating that Q3 saw an $0.11 favorable pickup from tariffs and related FX compared to prior guidance. For Q4, he expects tariff assumptions to hold, with no significant pickup, given the increased tariffs between the U.S. and Europe since the last guidance.

Dan Brennan returned to bioprocessing, noting that the overall biotech segment's 6% guide for the year is lower than 2025, and asked if this implies a slowdown for consumables given stronger equipment, and if his math was correct. For life sciences, he sought more detail on the pharma piece, given academic markets remain muted, and inquired about current trends and the potential for further improvement in 2026, especially with MFN and tariffs hopefully resolved.

Answer

CEO Rainer Blair clarified that the bioprocessing *business* (not the broader segment) is expected to grow high single digits for the year and Q1, with equipment projected to be flat. The overall 'biotech segment' includes Discovery & Medical, which is expected to be flat or slightly down, balancing the high single-digit bioprocessing growth. He emphasized no slowdown in bioprocessing. For life sciences, Rainer reiterated that pharma is the largest end market, showing growth for three consecutive quarters due to recovery post-MFN deals. He expects pharma end markets to continue improving, clinical/applied to remain stable, and academic/government to be muted but with potential for upside as policy stabilizes.

Dan Brennan (TD Cowen) questioned the bioprocessing guide for 2026, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumables if the overall segment growth (around 6%) is lower than 2025, despite stronger equipment. He sought clarification on the starting point for the 2026 guide. Brennan also asked for more detail on the pharma piece within life sciences, what Danaher is observing, how it's guided, and the potential for improvement in 2026, given academic demand remains muted.

Answer

Rainer Blair, President and CEO, clarified that bioprocessing consumables are projected for high single-digit growth (upper end), with equipment flat, leading to overall bioprocessing high single digits for the year. He attributed any perceived slowdown to the Discovery & Medical segment, not bioprocessing itself. For life sciences, Blair reiterated that pharma has shown three quarters of growth post-MFN deals and expects continued improvement, stable clinical/applied, with academic/government representing potential upside as policy stabilizes.

Dan Brennan asked for a broader perspective on the bioprocessing equipment side, specifically how Cytiva's built-up capacity and the trend of reshoring might impact demand over the next few years, distinguishing between incremental demand and regional shifts, and potential benefits for Danaher in late 2026 into 2027. He also sought further details on the 2026 life science guide, which assumes flat growth, asking for a breakdown between instruments and genomics, and what would be needed to achieve even zero growth, questioning if this outlook is conservative.

Answer

Rainer Blair, President and CEO, explained that equipment demand is driven by manufacturing growth and regionalization of supply chains (reshoring). While policy discussions have delayed investments, confidence is growing as overhangs dissipate. He expects initial brownfield investments to quickly add capacity, followed by larger greenfield projects, potentially leading to an extended capital cycle, though this has not yet translated into orders. Regarding life sciences, Mr. Blair noted that clinical and applied markets remain solid, and pharma research spending shows modest recovery. The academic and government segments, which are a smaller exposure, are currently anchoring growth. He also mentioned that life science consumables are lapping headwinds from large customers. Matt McGrew, Executive Vice President and CFO, confirmed the flat growth assumption for life sciences in 2026, consistent with recent performance, but acknowledged potential upside if order trends improve.

Dan Brennan asked about the bioprocessing equipment side, specifically how Cytiva's built-up capacity and the trend of reshoring/onshoring might impact demand over the next few years, including potential benefits for capital demand and recurring revenue in late 2026/2027. He also inquired about the 2026 guide for the life science segment, particularly the assumption of flat growth, and whether this is a conservative estimate for instruments versus genomics.

Answer

Rainer Blair (President and CEO) explained that equipment demand is driven by manufacturing growth and regionalization of capacity (reshoring). He expects continued investment, starting with brownfield projects for quicker capacity, followed by larger greenfield investments over several years, potentially leading to an extended capital cycle. Policy changes and tariff/MFN discussions have been an overhang but are dissipating, providing more confidence. For life sciences, Matt McGrew (EVP and CFO) confirmed the flat growth assumption for 2026. Rainer Blair added that clinical/applied markets are solid, pharma R&D is modestly recovering, but academic/government demand (low single-digit exposure) is soft. He expects some headwinds from large customers in life science consumables to lap, leading to modest growth next year, but for planning, flat growth is prudent until order trends confirm upside.

Dan Brennan (via an unknown analyst on the line) asked for more detail on the accelerated tissue growth, including doctor adoption rates for the combined portfolio, pricing opportunities for GPS, and the reasons for slower growth in liquid-based tests.

Answer

CEO Michael McGarrity explained that tissue growth is driven by both a 'push' from pathology partners and successful penetration within large urology practices, leading to 'sticky', compliant adoption without expanding the sales force. On pricing, he noted the focus is on both advancing ASPs and reducing COGS through scale and efficiency. Regarding liquid tests, McGarrity described the slower growth as a tactical decision to focus sales incentives on the higher-margin, higher-growth tissue-based portfolio, which is performing as planned.

An analyst on behalf of Dan Brennan asked for more detail on other potential cost-saving levers the company could pull if the challenging environment were to persist.

Answer

CFO Adam Taich reiterated the over $50 million in 2025 OpEx savings already actioned, split between headcount and discretionary spending. He noted that there is more that can be done, particularly in discretionary areas, and emphasized the company's commitment to remaining nimble to protect its balance sheet. CEO Serge Saxonov added that the company will be agile while navigating the environment.

Asked for details on the recent ACOG bulletin, the process and potential timelines for guideline inclusion, progress with Medicaid opportunities, and confirmation of the Medicaid pilot program target.

Answer

The ACOG bulletin supports risk stratification, which aligns with Sera's strategy. Guideline updates could happen in a normal 2-4 year cycle, be accelerated, or be delayed. The company is excited about Medicaid engagement in states where preterm birth is a priority, as the test can help meet quality metrics and reduce costs. The target of 2-4 Medicaid pilots in the next year was confirmed.

Dan Brennan asked about commercial payer feedback on the new markers, the size of the RA market opportunity, the strategy for volume growth in 2025, and the outlook for operating expense leverage.

Answer

John Aballi stated that payer feedback is positive, with denials mostly related to out-of-network status, which they can appeal effectively. He sized the addressable market at ~2.5 million annual tests and expects volume growth to improve to high single-digits with an expansion of the sales force. Jeff Black added that significant OpEx leverage and scaling are expected in the second half of 2025.

Asked for an update on the G4X services and instrument funnel, the commercial launch timeline for 2025, the expected timing for first publications, and the key differentiators of the G4X platform against potential competition.

Answer

The company has a deep funnel for both services and early access instruments. The commercial launch is targeted for Q2 2025, following an early access program in late 2024. Publications are expected later in the year. The platform's differentiation comes from a combination of proprietary chemistry optimized for tissue, a fast and flexible instrument design, and a strong IP portfolio.