Dan Dolev

Dan Dolev asked about SoFi's strategy for loan originations, specifically how the company decides to allocate originations between its Loan Platform Business (LPB) and retaining assets on its balance sheet.

Answer

Chris Lapointe, CFO, explained that SoFi has robust origination demand and increased flexibility. The company can choose to drive capital-light, fee-based revenue through its LPB, which has scaled to over $14.5 billion in annualized volume, or retain higher-returning assets on its balance sheet, leveraging newly raised capital. He emphasized that allocation decisions are based on maximizing long-term shareholder returns and serving members, noting that holding loans yields the highest total return while LPB offers immediate revenue, cash, and attractive returns with no risk.

Dan Dolev inquired about the health of consumer credit, specifically SoFi's net charge-off rates, and how FICO scores differentiate performance, seeking an overall view of consumer credit health across various FICO branches.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto affirmed strong credit performance across all products, highlighting consistent adjustments to marketing, pricing, and credit approvals to maintain loan quality through economic and interest rate cycles. CFO Chris Lapointe added that strong demand from capital markets partners reflects a 'flight to quality,' underscoring the strength of SoFi's underwriting and balance sheet.

Dan Dolev asked about the health of the consumer credit, specifically inquiring about SoFi's net charge-off rates and any FICO-differentiated factors contributing to their strong performance.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto emphasized SoFi's strong credit performance across all products, attributing it to a long-standing focus on loan quality over quantity, continuous adjustments to marketing and credit approvals, and a target lifelong loss rate of 7-8%. CFO Chris Lapointe added that strong demand from capital markets partners reflects a flight to quality, underscoring the robustness of SoFi's underwriting.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group asked for an update on the Tech Platform, specifically regarding the status of the Chime client migration and its potential impact on total accounts.

Answer

CFO Chris Lapointe stated that while the migration is not yet complete, SoFi has made significant progress in signing new partners. He reiterated the 2025 revenue growth guidance of low-double-digits to teens for the segment and noted that approximately 10 new clients are expected to contribute revenue in Q1 2026. A more detailed update on the net impact will be provided after the Q4 2025 earnings report.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho asked for perspective on the strength of the capital markets for SoFi's assets, particularly in light of recent high market volatility.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto noted he was pleasantly surprised that recent volatility did not slow down any deals. CFO Chris Lapointe added that capital markets demand is 'extremely strong,' with over $3 billion in loans sold or transferred in Q1. He highlighted over $8 billion in new LPB partnerships that will accelerate volume in Q2. Noto also emphasized the untapped opportunity in the $100 billion of loan applications SoFi currently declines annually.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked for examples of operating leverage that could increase confidence in SoFi achieving its medium-term EPS guidance, given the plan to increase investments.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto expressed high confidence in the company's long-term 30% EBITDA and 20% net income margin targets. He clarified that after demonstrating margin expansion in 2024, the company is now tilting back to a 30% incremental EBITDA margin in 2025 to reinvest for durable, long-term revenue growth, which supports higher future revenue expectations.

Dan Dolev asked for more details on the loan platform business, including its monetization strategy and how the current model differs from prior quarters.

Answer

CFO Chris Lapointe explained that the loan platform is a capital-light, fee-based business with no loss-share agreements. He outlined four revenue streams: referral fees, originating on behalf of partners for an upfront fee plus servicing, originating for third-party investors, and servicing assets not originated by SoFi. CEO Anthony Noto added that with 70-80% of loan applicants being declined, there is a significant latent pool of customers to serve through this platform.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho asked for an update on Pismo's progress, specifically how it's trending in terms of wins with large versus small banks and its potential size in two to three years, given its strong start and traction.

Answer

Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer, explained that Pismo is seeing success with both smaller fintechs, who leverage its cloud-native capabilities for international expansion into underserved markets, and larger traditional financial institutions. He noted that sophisticated large clients are impressed by Pismo's cloud-native issuer processing and core banking stack, which supports all products. McInerney reiterated excitement for the business, acknowledging the long sales cycles involved in core banking infrastructure changes.

Dan Dolev requested an update on Pismo's progress, specifically asking about the trending of wins between large and small banks and its potential size in the next two to three years, given its strong start.

Answer

Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer, expressed continued excitement for Pismo, noting wins with both smaller fintechs (facilitating international expansion due to Pismo's cloud-native nature) and larger traditional banks (assisting their journey from on-premise legacy technology to the cloud for issuer processing and core banking). He emphasized Pismo's position as a leading cloud-native solution.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group questioned if strong Value-Added Services growth was being driven by monetized consulting on stablecoins and asked for guidance on how to model client incentives for Q4 and fiscal 2026.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney confirmed that Visa's advisory business is performing well, with client engagements on topics like stablecoins and AI leading to opportunities for Visa's products. CFO Chris Suh reiterated that Q4 was always expected to have the highest incentive growth of the year due to lapping and deal timing, but the overall Q4 net revenue outlook remains unchanged.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group asked if the strong growth in Value-Added Services (VAS) was being helped by monetizing consulting services related to stablecoins. He also asked for guidance on the trajectory of client incentives for Q4 and into 2026.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney confirmed that Visa's advisory business is seeing strong growth and that clients rely on its expertise for complex topics like stablecoins, which can lead to opportunities for Visa's products like the Tokenized Asset Platform. CFO Chris Suh reiterated that Q4 incentives were always expected to be the highest growth quarter of the year due to lapping effects and deal timing, but the overall Q4 adjusted net revenue view remains unchanged.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group asked if strong Value-Added Services growth was being driven by monetized consulting on stablecoins and also requested guidance on incentive trends for Q4 and fiscal 2026.

Answer

CEO Ryan McInerney confirmed that Visa's advisory business is performing well, and engagements on topics like stablecoins often lead to opportunities to sell products and services. CFO Chris Suh addressed incentives, reiterating that Q4 was always expected to be the highest growth quarter due to lapping effects and deal timing, but the overall adjusted net revenue outlook for Q4 remains unchanged.

Dan Dolev asked about the contribution and materiality timeline of the CashFlow Central partnership with Fiserv. He also posed a longer-term question regarding ADP's 3-5 year outlook and how it plans to add value or adapt in an AI-driven world that might reduce long-term jobs, particularly white-collar roles.

Answer

Maria Black, President and CEO, expressed excitement about the Fiserv CashFlow Central integration into RUN, enabling small business owners to manage payroll, bill pay, AP/AR, and contractor payments on one platform. She noted that the integration was completed in December, so significant revenue or bookings contribution is largely in front of them. Regarding the long-term, Maria Black emphasized ADP's 76-year history of navigating innovation cycles, stating that paying people accurately and on time is an imperative. She acknowledged AI's role in augmenting work and automating tasks, but stressed the human-centric nature of work and ADP's commitment to continuous innovation in AI-infused HCM solutions, believing that human involvement remains critical for complex payroll and HR challenges.

Dan Dolev asked about the contribution and timeline for Fiserv's CashFlow Central partnership becoming material for ADP. He also posed a longer-term question regarding ADP's strategy and value proposition in an AI-driven world that might reduce long-term white-collar jobs.

Answer

Maria Black, President and CEO, ADP, expressed excitement about the CashFlow Central integration into RUN Powered by ADP, enabling small business owners to manage payroll, bill pay, AP/AR, and contractor payments from a single platform. She noted that the integration was completed in December, so significant revenue or bookings contribution is largely in front of them. Addressing the long-term AI impact, Maria Black emphasized that ADP's core business of paying people accurately and on time is an imperative, not discretionary. She acknowledged AI's role in changing workflows and augmenting the workplace, but stressed the human-centric nature of work and ADP's commitment to continuous innovation in AI across HCM domains (payroll, tax, benefits) while maintaining human oversight and connection.

Dan Dolev requested further clarification on the lower pays per control (PPC) and whether recent announcements, such as layoffs at major companies like Amazon, alter ADP's expectations or are already factored into its guidance.

Answer

Peter Hadley (CFO) reiterated that the PPC movement represents a minor "tens of basis points," narrowing the range to the low end, and does not signify "meaningful amounts of revenue" or "margin." He explained that this is based on internal data showing "very low levels of layoffs" and "tight hiring," indicating a "static situation." He confirmed that headline news like Amazon layoffs are "contemplated in our guidance" given ADP's extensive client base of 1.1 million clients and 26 million workers paid in the U.S.

Dan Dolev asked for further details on the lower pays per control (PPC) and whether recent layoff announcements, such as Amazon's, were already factored into ADP's expectations.

Answer

CFO Peter Hadley reiterated that the lower PPC represents a small, tens-of-basis-points movement, narrowing the guidance range to the low end, with no meaningful revenue or margin impact. He attributed this to internal client base data showing tight hiring but also very low layoff levels, resulting in a static situation. He confirmed that headline-worthy layoff announcements, including Amazon's, are contemplated in ADP's guidance, as they represent a small fraction of ADP's large client and worker base.

Dan Dolev asked for color on mid-market software bookings performance versus expectations and inquired about any changes to the competitive landscape following a recent competitor merger.

Answer

CFO Peter Hadley and President & CEO Maria Black characterized mid-market tech-only bookings as satisfactory, performing between the strong results in PEO and the softer finish in ES HRO. Ms. Black asserted that the competitive landscape remains unchanged following the competitor merger, stating that ADP continues to compete effectively and is confident in its Workforce Now NextGen offering.

Dan Dolev sought to clarify the nature of the 'macro uncertainty,' asking whether it reflects general concern or tangible actions from clients, such as holding back on hiring.

Answer

CFO Don McGuire responded that ADP is seeing stability in its client base, with pays per control (PPC) growth at 1%, indicating hiring continues. He clarified that the uncertainty primarily manifests as apprehension in decision-making for very large, multi-country deals, while day-to-day business activity remains strong.

Dan Dolev pointed out a subtle change in language regarding hiring pace, from 'moderate' last quarter to 'slower' this quarter, and asked for a long-term perspective on this slowing trend.

Answer

CFO Don McGuire contextualized the comment by emphasizing the continued strength and stability of the overall macroeconomic and labor environments. He cited low unemployment and general business optimism as strong fundamentals that support pays per control and overall growth for ADP, alongside opportunities in their international business.

Dan Dolev asked for quantification of the EBIT drag from incremental amortization related to the WorkForce Software deal and for an update on pricing strategies.

Answer

CFO Don McGuire guided that the amortization could be estimated by taking about 30% of the $1.2 billion deal value and amortizing it over 7-8 years. On pricing, he stated the strategy is unchanged, with an expectation of about 100 basis points of contribution this year as inflation moderates, though he noted a minor unexpected benefit in Q1 from inflation-indexed contracts in Europe.

Dan Dolev asked Michael Tannenbaum and Mike Cagney about what excites them most in Figure's business, given the strong Q3 results and numerous moving parts.

Answer

Michael Tannenbaum (CEO) expressed excitement about customers proactively seeking Figure's blockchain technology to improve their businesses, noting growing interest in Yields and Democratized Prime. Mike Cagney (Executive Chairman and Co-founder) highlighted the recent announcement of issuing equity native to public blockchain as a transformative opportunity to build a new capital market ecosystem.

Dan Dolev asked Michael Tannenbaum and Mike Cagney what they are most excited about in Figure Technology Solutions' business, given the numerous positive developments.

Answer

CEO Michael Tannenbaum expressed excitement that existing and future customers are proactively seeking Figure's blockchain technology to improve their businesses, showing increased interest in the broader blockchain ecosystem including YLDS and Democratized Prime. Executive Chairman and Co-founder Mike Cagney highlighted the recent announcement of a blockchain-native equity share class as a transformative opportunity to build a new capital market ecosystem, demonstrating blockchain's value beyond credit assets.

Dan Dolev asked for a response to skeptics who view stablecoins as a commoditized product, questioning what makes USDC a long-term winner in this market. He also sought further explanation for the implied Q4 guide down for other income and rising expenses.

Answer

Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, CEO, and Chairman, countered the commoditization view by emphasizing that stablecoin networks exhibit powerful network effects, driven by product integrations, interoperability, developer flywheels, and a robust liquidity network. He also cited regulatory and infrastructure moats, including extensive licenses and supervision, as key differentiators. Mr. Allaire asserted that this is a 'winner-take-most' market, and Circle is leaning into growth opportunities. Jeremy Fox-Geen, CFO, added that the company operates within a megatrend of building the internet financial system, and while addressable markets are huge, short-term fluctuations in an exponential growth curve should not overshadow the long-term vision.

Dan Dolev questioned the Q4 guidance, noting implied declines in 'other income' and rising expenses, and sought a robust explanation. He also asked for Circle's pushback against skeptics who view stablecoins as a commoditized product and what factors will ensure USDC's long-term competitive advantage in a market with many stablecoin entrants.

Answer

CEO Jeremy Allaire countered the commoditization view by emphasizing that stablecoin networks, like other internet platforms, benefit from powerful network effects driven by product integrations, interoperability, and developer flywheels. He highlighted USDC's extensive liquidity network (primary and secondary) and regulatory/infrastructure moats (55+ licenses) as critical differentiators. Allaire asserted that this is a 'winner-take-most' market, and Circle's investments in platform development and commercial tailwinds position it as an outsized winner. CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen added that short-term fluctuations in guidance are normal for an exponential growth curve in a megatrend.

Dan Dolev inquired about Affirm's strong execution in funding markets, specifically mentioning the ABS deal, despite broader market challenges.

Answer

Max Levchin highlighted Affirm's ability to execute in ABS and capital markets, expanding relationships with Blue Chip buyers. He attributed success to the unique and highly valued asset performance and the expertise of Affirm's capital markets team.

Dan Dolev inquired about Affirm's strong execution in the funding markets, including a recent ABS deal, despite broader market challenges and the 'tricolor situation'.

Answer

Max Levchin, Founder and CEO, highlighted Affirm's robust execution in the ABS and broader capital markets, expanding relationships with Blue Chip CLO buyers. He attributed success to the unique, highly valued asset performance and the expertise of their capital markets team.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the drivers behind the strong quarterly results and optimistic guidance, asking if the consumer stress mentioned last quarter has eased.

Answer

Founder & CEO Max Levchin responded that the strong performance reflects accelerating momentum with the U.S. and Canadian consumer. He highlighted that credit performance remains strong and demand for Affirm's services is growing, leading to record GMV in a non-peak quarter.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities asked for elaboration on the specific areas of strength driving Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) and questioned the sustainability of recent growth trends.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare responded that GMV strength was incredibly broad-based, with growth across nearly all categories and merchants. He highlighted that direct-to-consumer services, led by the Affirm Card, grew faster than the overall business and confirmed that growth accelerated through the quarter, with March hitting 40% year-over-year GMV growth.

Dan Dolev requested an update on Affirm's U.K. launch and asked about the potential for market share gains against the incumbent leader, given Affirm's more diverse product offerings.

Answer

CEO Max Levchin stated that it's early to predict market share but noted past success in the U.S. He highlighted strong market pull in the U.K. for longer-term loans (24-36 months), an area where competitors are less active. He confirmed the U.K. launch is still in a testing phase but mentioned that Shopify will be the first major enterprise integration to go live there soon, which will be a key test of uptake.

Dan Dolev asked about the primary factors contributing to the recent acceleration in active consumer growth.

Answer

CEO Max Levchin attributed the growth to reinvesting strong profits into deeper approvals and more compelling new consumer offers. He also highlighted a deliberate company-wide focus on increasing user activity and transaction frequency, which has pushed transactions per active consumer to a new high.

Dan Dolev asked for commentary on the Apple Pay partnership, suggesting it highlights the difficulty of the BNPL business and validates Affirm's specialized model in underwriting and merchant acquisition.

Answer

CEO Max Levchin reframed the partnership not as Apple 'capitulating,' but as a major endorsement of BNPL as a complex and important product category. He credited Affirm's success to two hard-to-replicate pillars: its sophisticated, real-time underwriting models built over 14 years, and the immense effort required to build a large merchant network that understands and pays for the value of incremental sales.

Dan Dolev inquired about the specific areas of strength driving Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), the contribution from Apple Pay, and the sustainability of recent growth trends observed in April.

Answer

CFO Robert O'Hare reported that GMV strength was incredibly broad-based across almost all categories and merchant sizes. He highlighted that direct-to-consumer services, led by the Affirm Card, grew faster than the overall business. O'Hare also confirmed that growth accelerated throughout the quarter, with March achieving 40% year-over-year GMV growth.

Dan Dolev asked about the confidence in FIS's 'future forward' strategy, initiated three years ago, and its effectiveness in rationalizing the business. He also inquired about how AI is shaping into the company's investment roadmap. As a follow-up, he requested clarification on the M&A contribution, both organic and inorganic, towards the end of the year and into 2026, asking what to expect from acquired assets.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris expressed strong satisfaction with the 'future forward' strategy, highlighting its benefits in commercial excellence (driving high-value recurring revenue with AI for lead generation and sales productivity), client excellence (using AI for improved client experience and self-service tools), and innovation (pivoting investment to AI opportunities). She detailed AI applications in data infrastructure, agentic workflows for regional banks, and the Neural Treasury product in capital markets. CFO James Kehoe clarified M&A contributions, stating that banking M&A contributed 150 basis points in Q3 and 110 basis points for the full year, with the Amount acquisition adding about 20 basis points to the full-year guide. He emphasized that the majority of the increase in the full-year banking guide (65 basis points) comes from operational execution.

Dan Dolev asked about management's confidence in the future-forward strategy, initiated three years ago, and how AI is shaping the investment roadmap. He also requested a quick housekeeping update on M&A contribution (organic and inorganic) towards the end of 2025 and into 2026.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris expressed strong satisfaction with the future-forward strategy, highlighting benefits in commercial excellence (AI for lead generation, sales productivity), client excellence (AI for improved client experience, self-service, higher retention), and innovation. She detailed AI's role in leveraging FIS's 200+ petabytes of data, investing in data infrastructure, piloting agentic workflows for regional banks (e.g., Emerald product, Banking Assist), and enhancing capital markets with Neural Treasury for cash forecasting and risk management. CFO James Kehoe provided M&A contribution details: banking M&A contributed 150 basis points in Q3, 110 basis points for the full year, and is guided at 120 basis points for Q4. Capital markets M&A contributed 130 basis points for the full year, with similar contributions in Q3 and Q4. He noted that the Amount acquisition contributed about 20 basis points to the 85 basis point midpoint increase in banking's full-year guide, with the remaining 65 basis points from operational execution.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group asked about the drivers behind the accelerated growth at Worldpay and to what extent this growth was organic.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris explained that Worldpay's strong performance was due to lapping a soft prior-year quarter, some seasonality from tax processing, and most significantly, the successful onboarding of large e-commerce clients. She acknowledged it was a seasonally high quarter but noted their overall expectations were increasing.

Dan Dolev inquired about the outlook for Worldpay's Equity Method Income (EMI) and its revenue growth trajectory, as well as its EBITDA margin cadence.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris stated that the Worldpay EMI outlook remains consistent with prior guidance, with no signs of softening. She expressed satisfaction with Worldpay's revenue acceleration, noting its growth has returned to be consistent with the market. Regarding margins, Ferris confirmed Worldpay is ramping up investments as planned but did not provide specific guidance on its EBITDA cadence.

Dan Dolev asked for a detailed breakdown of the Q4 banking growth drivers to understand the underlying performance, and also inquired about management's satisfaction with the current business portfolio.

Answer

CFO James Kehoe provided a breakdown, explaining that after adjusting for Worldpay, M&A, pandemic revenue headwinds, and contract recognition items, the underlying core growth for banking was around 3%. CEO Stephanie Ferris expressed satisfaction with the portfolio, highlighting a strategy to create a differentiated niche in commercial lending and the 'office of the CFO' space, distinct from traditional competitors.

Dan Dolev requested color on the expected Q4 organic growth acceleration in the Banking segment, asking how FIS is performing with different customer types and referencing chatter about recent competitive success.

Answer

CEO Stephanie Ferris expressed confidence in the Banking segment's growth, supported by an easier prior-year comparison. She highlighted significant competitive progress in core banking and digital solutions, noting that FIS has already signed more core deals in 2024 than in all of 2023. Ferris emphasized success across all three strategic core platforms (IBS, Horizon, and Modern Banking Platform) within the company's target market of banks with over $2 billion in assets.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho inquired about Toast's observations regarding the broader consumer macro environment, particularly given the prevailing anxiety, and how these trends manifested in Q3 and the early part of Q4.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang stated that the summer and Q3 were strong, and while consumer trends in October normalized slightly, they remained within expectations and a narrow band. He reiterated that Toast's customers and restaurants are performing well, noting the historical resilience of restaurants during economic downturns.

Dan Dolev asked about the general macroeconomic conditions and consumer trends observed by Toast during Q3 and more recently in Q4, given the broader market anxiety.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang stated that the summer and Q3 were strong, and while consumer trends in October normalized slightly, they remained within a narrow band and aligned with expectations. He emphasized that Toast's customers and restaurants are performing well, noting that restaurants historically tend to be resilient during economic slowdowns.

Dan Dolev asked for details on how the new partnership with American Express enhances Toast's flywheel effect.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang explained the partnership has two main benefits: it aggregates reservation inventory from Resy, Tock, and Toast Tables into the Toast Local app for broader discovery, and it leverages reservation data to enable personalized in-restaurant experiences for all guests, including American Express card members, by providing staff with diner preferences and history.

Dan Dolev asked about the source of confidence for the strong Q2 location net add forecast, particularly in the current macro environment. He also inquired about the drivers behind the increase in payments take rate.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang attributed the confidence in location growth to strong sales AE productivity, which was up year-over-year in Q1 and continued through April. CFO Elena Gomez explained that the higher payments take rate was due to a combination of factors, including 2024 pricing initiatives, ongoing cost optimization, and growing traction from product surcharging.

Dan Dolev pointed out the significant acceleration in payments ARR growth to 35% in the fourth quarter and asked for an explanation of the drivers.

Answer

CFO Elena Gomez explained that while payments take rate typically declines in Q4 due to seasonality, it increased quarter-over-quarter in Q4 2024. This was driven by a combination of ongoing cost optimization efforts and the targeted pricing changes that were implemented in September, which together boosted the payments ARR.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho asked a high-level strategic question about whether there has been any re-prioritization of initiatives for the upcoming year, such as international expansion or new products, based on recent developments.

Answer

CEO Aman Narang stated that the strategy remains consistent with what was outlined at the Investor Day. The foundational priority is scaling the core U.S. business to achieve market leadership. Concurrently, Toast will continue investing to expand its TAM in areas with a right to win and good unit economics, such as international and retail, and will allocate more go-to-market capacity to these areas next year. He also mentioned a portion of R&D is dedicated to exploring longer-term opportunities.

Dan Dolev asked about the strong application demand observed in Q3 2025 and how it reconciles with the Q4 guidance, which was below expectations.

Answer

Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart, explained that application growth was strong, the highest in three years, but the model became conservative due to macro factors, leading to lower conversion rates. He noted the model's responsiveness, even if it 'overreacted' temporarily.

Dan Dolev asked about the strong application demand observed in Q3 2025 and how it reconciles with the Q4 guidance, which was below expectations.

Answer

CEO Dave Girouard explained that application growth was robust, up 30% quarter-over-quarter and the strongest in three years, but transaction volume was lower than anticipated because the model became conservative due to observed macro factors, potentially 'overreacting' before reverting. He emphasized that strong application volume is a healthy sign for the business.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group asked about the key factors that could potentially cause the Upstart Macro Index (UMI) to move either up or down in the coming year.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta explained that the UMI could improve (decrease) if consumer savings rates rise and consumption moderates relative to income. Conversely, the UMI could worsen (increase) due to factors like a reacceleration of inflation or a significant increase in unemployment.

Dan Dolev asked about the key factors that could cause the Upstart Macro Index (UMI) to either increase or decrease throughout the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta explained that the UMI could improve (decrease) if consumer savings rates rise and consumption patterns normalize relative to income. Conversely, factors like reaccelerating inflation or a significant rise in unemployment could cause the UMI to worsen (increase).

Dan Dolev inquired about the recently announced partnership with Walmart's fintech, OnePay, and asked for an update on business trends observed in April and early May.

Answer

CEO David Girouard described the Walmart OnePay agreement as a one-year deal to offer Upstart's products to Walmart customers, aligning with the company's strategy to provide the 'best rates and best process'. CFO Sanjay Datta noted that any recent business trends are already incorporated into the company's Q2 guidance.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group requested a breakdown of the operating levers driving the strong 18% adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for 2025 and asked for management's perspective on the current credit cycle.

Answer

CFO Sanjay Datta highlighted the company's operating leverage, explaining that with stable take rates and contribution margins, revenue growth efficiently drops to the bottom line against contained fixed costs. CEO David Girouard commented that he wouldn't call it a 'supercycle,' as loan pricing and the UMI remain elevated, suggesting room for macro improvement. He emphasized that growth is primarily driven by fundamental model enhancements, not macro tailwinds.

Dan Dolev asked about Global Payments' impressive free cash flow generation, future capital returns, and capital allocation strategy, especially considering the projected $5 billion in annual free cash flow by 2028.

Answer

CEO Cameron Bready and CFO Josh Whipple reiterated Global Payments' consistent capital allocation philosophy, targeting nearly $9 billion in returns by 2027, including $7.5 billion from business-generated cash flow. They confirmed that the $5 billion annual free cash flow expectation by 2028 allows for significant shareholder returns while still funding over $1 billion in annual innovation. They highlighted strong Q3 2025 free cash flow of $784 million and a net leverage reduction to 2.9x, expressing confidence in delevering to 3x within 18-24 months post-Worldpay acquisition.

Dan Dolev asked about Global Payments' impressive free cash flow generation, the projected $9 billion capital return, and the company's strategy for capital allocation as it approaches $5 billion in annual free cash flow by 2028.

Answer

Cameron Bready (CEO, Global Payments) reiterated the consistent capital return philosophy, targeting $7.5 billion from cash flow by 2027, in addition to $1.2 billion from dispositions. Josh Whipple (CFO, Global Payments) emphasized strong free cash flow generation, 96% conversion year-to-date, and confidence in deleveraging to three times within 18-24 months post-WorldPay acquisition.

Dan Dolev questioned the company's confidence in accelerating merchant growth in the second half and asked for a clarification of the drivers behind the updated capital allocation plan.

Answer

CEO Cameron Bready expressed high confidence in the H2 outlook, citing early success with the Genius platform and the revamped sales compensation model. President & COO Robert Cortopassi provided supporting details on the positive reception of Genius across all distribution channels. Bready then clarified that the capital allocation plan includes a $500 million ASR tied to the payroll divestiture, which is incremental to the core $7.5 billion capital return program. This core program was increased due to expected tax benefits from new legislation.

Dan Dolev questioned the company's confidence in the Merchant segment's second-half growth acceleration and asked for a clarification of the drivers behind the updated capital allocation plan.

Answer

CEO Cameron Bready expressed high confidence in the H2 outlook, citing early success from the Genius platform and the sales force transformation. President & COO Robert Cortopassi provided objective metrics, including a nearly 30% sequential increase in U.S. direct sales. Bready then clarified the capital allocation: the $500 million ASR is incremental and tied to the payroll divestiture, while the core $7.5 billion return plan was reinstated to investor day levels due to favorable tax law changes.

Dan Dolev (Mizuho Securities USA LLC) asked for PayPal's perspective on the Buy Now, Pay Later industry, inquiring about competitive share gains and key territories. He also requested a quantification of planned investments for the upcoming year.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss described BNPL as a generational shift, with PayPal well-positioned due to its brand, global scale, and expansion into new geographies and in-store options. He emphasized the strategic opportunity in upstream presentment and the positive impact of BNPL on overall customer engagement. CFO Jamie Miller stated that it was too early to quantify 2026 investments, which are focused on product attachment and habituation, with more details to be provided on the February earnings call.

Dan Dolev asked about the significant momentum in PayPal's Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) business, seeking insights into the industry landscape, from whom PayPal is gaining market share, and in which territories. He also requested a quantification of the investments planned for next year.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss highlighted BNPL as a generational shift, with strong growth across the board, including 21% MAU growth in the U.S. and consistent TPV growth over 20%. He emphasized PayPal's unique position due to its brand, global scale, and expansion into Canada and in-store offerings. Alex Chriss noted a strategic shift to upstream presentment for BNPL. CFO Jamie Miller stated that 2026 investment details are still being finalized but will focus on product attach, habituation, merchant co-marketing, cashback, and rewards, with more information available in a couple of months.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group asked for a quantification of the benefits from the upgraded checkout experience and the expected uplift in the second half of the year.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Alex Chriss reiterated that the cohorts on the new experience (15% of global TPV) are seeing the previously discussed 'point of uplift.' He emphasized that overall branded checkout momentum is a combination of the new experience, strong BNPL growth (over 20% YoY), and rapid Pay with Venmo growth (45% YoY), expecting improvement to materialize through year-end and into 2026.

Dan Dolev inquired about the traction and specific drivers behind the strong performance of the branded experiences TPV strategy.

Answer

CEO Alex Chriss explained that the strategy focuses on driving consumer habituation by leveraging the strong PayPal and Venmo brands everywhere. He highlighted key drivers including the improved online checkout, flexible payment options like BNPL, and significant growth in off-line TPV from debit cards, which was up over 100% in Q1. He emphasized that the 8% growth in branded experiences TPV demonstrates the strategy is working effectively.

Dan Dolev requested a 'sneak preview' of the company's outlook for 2025, noting it remains a significant topic of debate for investors.

Answer

CFO Jamie Miller indicated that the revenue impact from Braintree contract renegotiations will continue through 2025, and that full-year 2025 OpEx growth should be similar to 2024's low single-digit rate, but more balanced quarterly. CEO Alex Chriss emphasized the focus on controllable, durable growth levers like branded checkout and Braintree economics. He expects transaction margin dollars (ex-interest income) to grow in 2025 from the new, positive baseline established in 2024.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the adoption and usage of the AI assistant 'Tori' among funded accounts and the company's broader vision for AI in investing.

Answer

CEO Yoni Assia expressed significant excitement for AI, stating it accelerates product development and enhances efficiency. He highlighted that 'Tori' can analyze market events in real-time and that new AI-powered APIs enable popular investors to build their own quantitative strategies, democratizing tools once reserved for hedge funds.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group inquired about the use of AI tools like 'Tori' by funded accounts, how users are perceiving it, and the company's vision for the future of AI in investing on the platform.

Answer

CEO Yoni Assia expressed great excitement for AI, stating it accelerates product delivery and organizational efficiency. He highlighted that the AI assistant 'Tori' can analyze market events and that the company is already testing models like GPT-5. Assia believes these tools will empower retail investors with sophisticated quantitative capabilities previously reserved for hedge funds, leading to higher engagement and success.

Dan Dolev posed a high-level question about the role of stablecoins in merchant acquiring and their potential to disrupt the existing payments ecosystem.

Answer

CEO Taylor Lauber explained that Shift4's role is to enable merchants to accept any currency they deem valuable, including stablecoins. However, he believes widespread disruption in markets like the U.S. is unlikely, as traditional card networks provide significant value to consumers—such as fraud protection and rewards—that stablecoins currently lack.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho Financial Group asked about the long-term strategic opportunities with the tokenization of private assets, following Robinhood's recent event in France.

Answer

CEO Vlad Tenev explained that the event served as a blueprint for what's possible with regulatory clarity, aiming to solve the inequity of private market access for retail investors. He noted the positive reception and the roadmap to make it a real product in both the EU and US, which has accelerated their European business. CFO Jason Warnick added that the event highlights the company's high product velocity.

Dan Dolev from Mizuho inquired about the rapid growth of Robinhood Gold subscriptions, asking for more color on its growth trajectory and ultimate potential given its impressive velocity.

Answer

CEO Vladimir Tenev explained that the aspiration is for Gold to be on par with top loyalty programs like Amazon Prime, not just financial services peers. He emphasized the high value proposition and noted that the product roadmap, including the credit card and the upcoming Gold-only banking product, is very solid and expected to drive continued growth.

Dan Dolev inquired about the long-term plans for event and prediction markets, such as sports contracts, noting internal survey work that showed a massive opportunity among Robinhood's user base.

Answer

CEO Vladimir Tenev described prediction markets as the future for both active trading and information, positioning Robinhood to be a leader in the space. He cited the success of the presidential election market and confirmed plans for a comprehensive events platform later in the year, while noting that regulatory clarity is still needed for certain areas like sports.

Dan Dolev asked for details on the new presidential election market, seeking information on its performance, its contribution to user retention, and any other available color.

Answer

CEO Vlad Tenev stated that the product had just completed its rollout to 100% of customers. He positioned it as a key part of the strategy to win the active trader market by offering innovative products unavailable at most competitors. Tenev shared early volume metrics, noting 10 million contracts were traded the previous day, but said it was too early to provide data on retention.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities asked about the opportunity presented by the USDC rewards program and what trends the company is observing from its implementation.

Answer

CFO Alesia Haas explained that the rewards program is a key driver of user engagement and balance growth, citing a 49% quarter-over-quarter increase in on-platform USDC balances to $12 billion. She noted that customers who hold USDC tend to trade more and engage with other products, creating a flywheel effect that is amplified by deep integrations into platforms like the international exchange and Base.

Dan Dolev of Mizuho Securities USA LLC asked if Coinbase has a view on entering the prediction markets space, similar to some competitors.

Answer

CEO Brian Armstrong said there was nothing to announce but expressed excitement for the category, highlighting its potential as a source of truth in an era of misinformation. President and COO Emilie Choi added that Coinbase is comfortable not always being first-to-market, preferring to use its ventures arm to monitor emerging trends and strategically decide whether to build, buy, or partner when the time is right.

Dan Dolev requested a specific quantification of the impact from the 'Dolar Turista' program in Argentina, separate from other factors like inflation and interest rates.

Answer

CFO Robert Hau clarified that while the broad impact from Argentina was zero in Q1 2025, the 'Dolar Turista' program specifically contributed 7 percentage points to the Merchant segment's 22-point growth from Argentina in the prior-year quarter (Q1 2024). He also stated that Fiserv expects the program to be discontinued in the current quarter.

Dan Dolev asked for a strategic update on the Walmart partnership, particularly regarding the potential use of FedNow and the Now network to innovate payment methods.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Frank Bisignano described the 27-year relationship with Walmart as a tremendous, deep partnership. He highlighted their work powering Walmart's 'one financial' JV on the Finxact core as an example of their collaboration. He emphasized that Fiserv works side-by-side with Walmart on their strategic initiatives, rather than focusing on a single project.

Dan Dolev asked for an update on the strategy and early market traction for the new Clover Go and Clover Compact products, which seem targeted at micro-sellers.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Frank Bisignano explained that these products are seen not just for new micro-merchants but also as augmentation products for the existing client base, expanding the total addressable market (TAM). He highlighted their role in international expansion, where they can cater to different market needs and distribution channels while still driving software and VAS revenue.

Dan Dolev inquired about the macroeconomic environment, specifically the 'trucking recession' and its impact on same-store sales, and asked about the expected returns on new sales and marketing investments.

Answer

CEO Melissa Smith noted that same-store sales trends improved sequentially in Q4 and were returning to more historical norms. CFO Jagtar Narula explained that sales and marketing investments have a strong LTV to CAC ratio, with an expected payback period of two years or less, driven by WEX's high customer retention rates.

Dan Dolev asked for details on the impact of pricing initiatives within the Mobility segment, especially given flat gallon volumes. He also inquired about any changes to the company's share buyback cadence.

Answer

CFO Jagtar Narula quantified the positive impact from pricing at $40-$50 million for the current year, with an expected $10-$20 million carry-over benefit into the next year. CEO Melissa Smith stated that share repurchases remain a very attractive use of capital, highlighting the recent $1 billion authorization increase and the 12% reduction in share count since Q1 2022, reflecting confidence in WEX's long-term value.

Dan Dolev inquired whether GenAI conversations are shifting towards incremental spending versus reallocation and asked about the margin profile of GenAI services compared to Accenture's traditional business.

Answer

CEO Julie T. Sweet responded that the client dynamic remains 'save to invest,' where cost savings from other IT areas are used to fund GenAI and data initiatives, without a change in overall spending levels. She also noted that GenAI is a small but growing part of the business and does not have a materially different margin profile, as it is often embedded within larger transformation deals.