Dan Moore

Dan Moore inquired about Simpson's 2025 outlook, seeking to reconcile the guidance for low-to-mid single-digit U.S. housing start growth with a margin forecast that implies a flatter market. He also questioned the shift from the prior quarter's commitment to a 20% operating margin and asked about expectations for working capital, cash flow, and long-term CapEx levels.

Answer

CEO Michael Olosky explained that their third-party housing start forecast (from Zonda) was revised downward, with growth now expected to be weighted to the second half of 2025. CFO Matt Dunn added that the previous 20% margin commentary was based on a more favorable housing outlook. Regarding capital, Michael Olosky noted that about half of the 2025 CapEx is for completing major projects, and future spending will be evaluated based on growth.

Dan Moore inquired about the expected impact of recent hurricanes on Q4 sales and operating income, the assumptions behind the 2025 U.S. housing starts forecast, the European market outlook, and the strategic rationale and revenue contribution from the Monet DeSauw and QuickFrames acquisitions.

Answer

CEO Michael Olosky acknowledged a slowdown in the Southeast due to hurricanes, resulting in a lower Q4 forecast for the region. He stated the 2025 U.S. housing start forecast is for 3-4% growth, with Europe at 1-2%. Olosky emphasized that a 20% operating income is viewed as the "floor." He also explained that Monet DeSauw enhances their offering for component manufacturers and QuickFrames adds a tool for the commercial space. CFO Brian Magstadt added that the acquisitions are expected to contribute less than $10 million in revenue in Q4.

Dan Moore of Baird asked how Hub Group is positioning itself to capitalize on potential business shifts resulting from the proposed UP/NS merger and how this outlook shapes the company's capital allocation strategy between share buybacks and M&A.

Answer

President & CEO Phillip Yeager stated that Hub Group is well-aligned with UP and NS and views the merger as a significant catalyst for over-the-road conversion through improved service and costs. He affirmed the company's intent to be a consolidator in the intermodal space. CFO Kevin Beth elaborated on the capital allocation strategy, noting a focus on tuck-in acquisitions to build scale in areas like Final Mile and fulfillment, while also remaining opportunistic for intermodal asset deals like the Martin transaction.

Dan Moore from Baird asked for more context on the key levers—rates, costs, and volume—needed to restore financial returns to historical levels, particularly in light of rising expenses like insurance and wages.

Answer

CFO Darrell Campbell explained that the recovery levers vary by segment: network is primarily price-driven, intermodal is volume-driven, and logistics depends on volume and market conditions. He highlighted that structural cost initiatives are positioning the company for future leverage. CEO Mark Rourke added that by managing variable contribution dollars effectively, the company is poised for significant operating leverage when market conditions improve.

Dan Moore of Baird requested more specific details on cost improvement initiatives within the Integrated Capacity Solutions (ICS) brokerage segment, asking how the company is approaching cost reduction efforts there.

Answer

Nick Hobbs, COO and President of Highway Services, explained that cost reduction in ICS has been ongoing, with a focus on improving people efficiency and 'span of control.' Brad Delco, SVP of Finance, quantified the progress, noting a nearly $10 million year-over-year improvement in operating income on similar gross profit, driven by OpEx reductions and the non-recurrence of certain costs from 2024.

Will, on behalf of Dan Moore from CJS Securities, asked if the stabilization in the commercial business has continued or if it has been impacted by recent uncertainty. He also inquired about the self-storage segment, asking whether projects from small and mid-sized customers are seeing more cancellations or are beginning to move forward.

Answer

CEO Ramey Jackson confirmed that the commercial business has stabilized, with growth in certain product lines like carports and sheds. However, he noted that the commercial sheet door segment remains flat, as its end market in metal buildings is currently depressed. Regarding self-storage projects, Mr. Jackson stated that the company is seeing more projects start to move forward, rather than an increase in cancellations from the backlog.

Dan Moore inquired about the financial profile of the recent Trans/Air and Freedman Seating acquisitions, the real-time impact of tariffs on retail demand, and sought confirmation of the company's Q2 guidance.

Answer

Executive Lillian Etzkorn stated the two acquisitions represent approximately $200 million in annualized revenue and will be accretive. She also confirmed Q2 guidance for roughly flat year-over-year revenue with operating margins consistent with Q1 2025. CEO Jason Lippert added that the acquisitions strengthen LCI's position in the bus market, which is insulated from consumer demand cycles. He noted that significant tariff impacts on retail prices are not yet visible but are expected this summer with model year changes.

Dan Moore from CJS Securities asked for additional color on dealer restocking trends for the spring selling season, the penetration rates of recent innovations like suspension systems and ABS, and the company's expectations for the 2025 operating margin range.

Answer

CEO Jason Lippert noted a strong start to the year, with chassis production averaging 5,300 units per week, up from Q4's 4,100, and positive commentary from dealers. He explained that more expensive innovations take longer to penetrate but highlighted that ABS adoption is up double-digits for the next model year. CFO Lillian Etzkorn declined to give a specific 2025 margin target but guided to incremental margins of about 25% on higher volume and continued non-material cost reductions, which should drive margin uplift.

Justin on behalf of Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired if the full-year EPS guidance of $5.30-$5.70 already includes the potential tariff impact, asked for quantification of mitigation efforts, and questioned what the company is hearing from semiconductor customers about their long-term CapEx plans.

Answer

President and CEO Jugal Vijayvargiya clarified that the EPS guidance of $5.30-$5.70 does NOT include the potential tariff impact and reflects normal business conditions. He described mitigation efforts like dual-sourcing as a 'work in process' without providing specific figures. He also noted that semiconductor customers view the situation as short-term and have not significantly altered long-term CapEx plans, with the market's fundamental growth drivers remaining intact.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the Energy Solutions business, asking how the recent $100 million in customer quotes compares to the prior year and the sources of this renewed interest. He also questioned the performance cadence in the Memorialization segment and its organic growth outlook, and sought clarification on the timing of the announced $50 million in cost savings.

Answer

Joseph Bartolacci, President and CEO, explained that the $100 million in quotes is dramatically higher than the same period last year when marketing was paused. He identified South Korea, North America, and Europe as key geographies, with growing interest from the grid storage market. Steven Nicola, CFO, noted that prior-year Memorialization comparisons were skewed by working off pandemic backlogs, while Bartolacci added that death rates are normalizing. Nicola confirmed the cost savings are projected at about $20 million in fiscal 2025 and $30 million in fiscal 2026.

Dan Moore inquired about Matthews' energy storage business, asking for a comparison of the recent $100 million in customer quotes to the same period last year and the geographic and end-market sources of this renewed interest. He also asked about the performance of the Memorialization segment, specifically the cadence of year-over-year declines and expectations for organic growth. Lastly, he sought clarification on the timing of the $50 million in cost reduction savings, asking how much is expected in fiscal '25 versus '26.

Answer

President and CEO Joseph Bartolacci explained that the $100 million in energy solution quotes is "dramatically higher" than last year, with significant interest from South Korea, North America, and Europe, as well as the grid storage market. Regarding Memorialization, CFO Steven Nicola noted that prior-year comparisons were skewed by working off a large granite backlog, while Mr. Bartolacci added that death rates are normalizing. Mr. Nicola also confirmed the cost savings breakdown is approximately $20 million in fiscal 2025 and $30 million in fiscal 2026.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the demand cadence and participation gains in the Residential segment, the pro forma scale of the metal roofing business, and the financial contribution from recent acquisitions. He also followed up on whether project delays were isolated to the Renewables segment or also affecting Agtech and Infrastructure.

Answer

Executive William Bosway stated that Residential demand is on plan, with participation gains materializing as expected. He noted the metal roofing business is approaching $200 million in revenue within a market exceeding $3 billion. Executive Joseph Lovechio quantified the expected contribution from recent acquisitions at approximately $50 million in revenue and $0.15 in EPS for 2025. Regarding project timing, Bosway confirmed that significant delays are primarily anticipated in the Renewables segment due to regulatory uncertainty, a pattern seen in prior years. He clarified that the Agtech and Infrastructure segments are not experiencing similar push-outs beyond normal operational variances.

Dan Moore inquired about the Residential segment's revenue cadence for 2025, asking if it would mirror 2024's pattern. He also sought clarification on the expected organic growth for the full year and the nature of the Renewables segment's accelerated bookings in early 2025.

Answer

Executive William Bosway explained that the Residential segment's growth is expected in the low to mid-single digits, driven by participation gains kicking in, rather than a direct mirror of 2024. He confirmed that the organic growth outlook is closer to 4% than 0%. For Renewables, Bosway stated the 33% booking increase is a catch-up from a suppressed second half of 2024, when customers were focused on a December deadline. This timing means H1 2025 revenue will be lower, with H2 revenue reflecting the new bookings.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the Residential segment's revenue decline, asking for a breakdown between price and volume and whether it was driven by end-market demand or inventory destocking. He also asked about the drivers of the segment's strong margins, the timing of Agtech orders, the segment's growth potential, and the long-term path for the Renewables segment to return to double-digit operating margins.

Answer

Executive William Bosway explained that the Residential revenue decline was entirely volume-based and varied regionally, not due to destocking. He attributed strong margins to 80/20 initiatives, productivity, and price-cost management. For Agtech, he confirmed strong momentum and higher run rates expected in 2025, noting order timing shifts are normal for large projects. Regarding Renewables, Bosway expressed confidence in the segment's ability to consistently achieve 15% margins once market cadence stabilizes, acknowledging that current pressure is partly due to the complexities of launching a new product in a difficult environment.

Dan Moore asked for an update on the performance of the parts and service business, the reasons for the larger reduction in operating cash flow guidance versus EBITDA guidance, and the order timing required for the legacy Coperion businesses to achieve growth in fiscal 2026. He also inquired about the macroeconomic assumptions embedded in the revised full-year outlook.

Answer

CFO Bob VanHimbergen reported that aftermarket revenue was down low-single digits year-over-year but up sequentially, with weakness in spare parts packages tied to new equipment sales being offset by strength in 'break-fix' services. He attributed the larger cash flow guidance reduction to lower earnings and minor restructuring costs, partially offset by lower CapEx. For fiscal 2026 growth, he stated that orders would need to pick up late in Q3 2025, but the current expectation is for a lower year-end backlog, creating pressure on 2026. He confirmed the revised guidance assumes a 'mild recession' scenario with order levels declining from 2024.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the fundamental drivers for the Advanced Process Solutions (APS) segment, including what would trigger large polyolefin project orders and the performance of the aftermarket and Food, Health & Nutrition (FHN) businesses. He later followed up on the Milacron transaction, asking about the valuation multiple, the long-term plan for the retained stake, and the pro forma margin and cash flow profile of the remaining company.

Answer

CEO Kimberly Ryan explained that geopolitical and tariff uncertainty is delaying large capital projects, though pipelines in India and the Middle East remain strong. She also highlighted record orders in the FHN business, driven by North America. CFO Bob VanHimbergen noted strong aftermarket orders made up nearly 40% of total orders in the quarter. Regarding the Milacron deal, VanHimbergen clarified the transaction multiple is in the 6-7x range and that proceeds will lower leverage to the 'low 3s' by year-end. He projected that in a normalized environment, the remaining company could see high-teens/low-20s margins in APS and mid-to-high 20s in the remaining MTS business, with a goal of 100% free cash flow conversion.

Dan Moore inquired about fiscal 2025 order trends and backlog recovery timing, the state of the hot runner market, and the pullback in food and pharma spending. He later followed up on FPM synergy realization, the fiscal 2025 cash flow outlook, and capital allocation priorities like debt repayment.

Answer

CFO Bob VanHimbergen projected a slow Q1 with order acceleration in the second half of fiscal 2025, contingent on interest rates. CEO Kim Ryan noted stability in the hot runner market, particularly in India, and confirmed the company is focused on FPM integration during the capital spending pause. VanHimbergen detailed that FPM synergy realization is ahead of schedule and broke down the cash flow guidance, noting headwinds from lower earnings but tailwinds from working capital efforts. Both executives reaffirmed that debt paydown remains the top capital allocation priority.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the timing and impact of cost savings on Q2 guidance, the seasonal outlook for Q3, long-term capital expenditure intensity, and the company's free cash flow expectations for the year.

Answer

SVP and CFO Laura Russell detailed that most Q2 savings stem from headcount reductions, with manufacturing savings from a facility closure expected in the second half. She also noted that while the company doesn't guide full-year free cash flow, Q1 results showed strong liquidity, and long-term CapEx intensity is expected to decrease to sub-5% of revenue. President and CEO Randall Gouveia added that the second-half outlook depends on the portable electronics ramp and power module inventory normalization, with tariffs remaining a key uncertainty.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the Q1 revenue outlook by segment and end market, asking which areas were showing further sequential softness. He also questioned if positive year-over-year top-line growth could be expected by the second half of 2025 and what further cost-cutting measures might be considered.

Answer

President and CEO Randall Gouveia explained that the sequential Q1 decline is driven by normal seasonality in Portable Electronics, while the year-over-year weakness stems from the curamik business due to the EV/HEV slowdown and inventory destocking. Gouveia anticipates Q1 will be the low point for the year, with a stronger second half driven by a gradual curamik recovery, new product launches, and new manufacturing capacity in China, though FX headwinds may temper overall growth. Senior Vice President and CFO Laura Russell added that gross margins are pressured by lower volume, unfavorable mix, and startup costs for a new China facility, with a top-line recovery being the primary catalyst for margin improvement.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the primary drivers for the Q4 revenue guidance decline, the outlook for inventory management headwinds into 2025, and the factors behind the significant drop in AES segment operating margins. He also asked about capital allocation priorities, specifically regarding share buybacks, and the extent to which the new China facility's volume will be incremental versus a shift from existing locations.

Answer

CEO Colin Gouveia attributed the Q4 decline to the conclusion of a major wireless project in India, seasonal weakness in portable electronics, a lack of recovery in the ceramic power module space, and general customer destocking. For 2025, he sees potential for improvement from a ceramic market recovery, the new China factory ramp, and growth in EV battery and industrial demand. Interim CFO Laura Russell explained that AES margin pressure stems from underutilization, though cost controls are in place. On capital allocation, she confirmed the priority is organic growth, followed by M&A and opportunistic share repurchases. Colin Gouveia added that while there is a small baseload of business, much of the new China facility's output is expected to be incremental volume.

Dan Moore inquired about the talc litigation reserve, including the progress made and potential cash impact, the revised outlook for full-year organic top-line growth amidst market uncertainty, the cadence of the new $10 million cost savings program, and sought clarification on how the Q2 operating income and EPS guidance corresponds to the provided revenue range.

Answer

CEO Douglas Dietrich explained that progress in mediation during Q1 allowed for a confident estimate for the $215 million talc reserve, but it's too early to estimate the 2025 cash impact. He noted that full-year growth is hard to predict but could be in the low single digits if order patterns stabilize. CFO Erik Aldag clarified that the cost savings will ramp up in Q3 and are accretive to margins, helping the company reach its 15% margin target. Aldag also confirmed the income and EPS guidance points represent the midpoint of the sales range.

Dan Moore inquired about MTI's operating margin expectations for fiscal 2025 and beyond, the key drivers for top-line growth in the Consumer & Specialty segment, and the company's capital allocation strategy, including M&A prospects.

Answer

CFO Erik Aldag stated that MTI expects to maintain or improve upon its 15% operating margin in 2025, with margins building seasonally after Q1. CEO Douglas Dietrich projected 4-8% growth for the Consumer & Specialties segment, driven by pet care, new products, and demand for bleaching earth. He also confirmed MTI's commitment to returning cash to shareholders via its $200 million buyback program while preserving capacity for bolt-on acquisitions.

Dan Moore inquired about the talc litigation, including the confidence in the new reserve and the potential cash impact for 2025. He also asked about revised organic top-line growth expectations amid macro uncertainty, the cadence of the new cost savings program, and for clarification on the Q2 guidance.

Answer

CEO Douglas Dietrich explained that the $215 million talc reserve is based on significant progress in mediation, providing more clarity, though the matter is not yet concluded. He noted it was too early to estimate the 2025 cash impact. On growth, Dietrich found it hard to provide a range but stated that if base demand holds and uncertainty clears, low single-digit growth is possible, supported by the company's strong product pipeline. CFO Erik Aldag added that the $10 million in cost savings will ramp up starting in Q3 and will be accretive to margins. Aldag also confirmed that the Q2 operating income and EPS guidance figures correspond to the midpoint of the provided sales range.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about MTI's operating margin expectations for fiscal 2025, the key drivers for achieving sustained growth in the Consumer & Specialty segment, and the company's capital allocation priorities, including the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CFO Erik Aldag stated that MTI expects to maintain or improve upon its 15% operating margin in 2025, with margins anticipated to build throughout the year. CEO Douglas Dietrich projected 4% to 8% growth for the Consumer & Specialties segment, driven by pet care, new products, and renewable fuels. Dietrich also confirmed the balance sheet supports both the $200 million share repurchase program and potential bolt-on acquisitions across all four product lines.

Dan Moore inquired about the drivers behind the mid-to-high single-digit growth forecast for the Consumer and Specialties segment. He also sought to understand if the slowdown in cyclical businesses was due to inventory destocking or weaker end-market demand, and asked about the potential upside to the company's 15% operating margin target.

Answer

CFO Erik Aldag clarified the growth forecast pertained specifically to the Household and Personal Care product line, driven by strong performance in pet care and high-margin specialties. CEO Douglas Dietrich added that a favorable interest rate environment could boost both segments. Group President Brett Argirakis attributed the industrial slowdown to soft end-market demand, particularly in agriculture, and some inventory reduction at steel service centers. Dietrich noted that margin upside would likely come from volume growth, a richer product mix, and tight cost control.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about the drivers behind the forecasted mid-to-high-single-digit growth in the Consumer and Specialties segment for the upcoming year. He also sought to understand whether the current slowdown in cyclical businesses is due to customer inventory reduction or softening end-market demand, and questioned the potential for operating margins to exceed the 15% target.

Answer

CFO Erik Aldag clarified the growth forecast specifically pertained to the Household and Personal Care product line, driven by strong performance in pet care and high-margin specialties. CEO Douglas Dietrich added that favorable interest rate trends could create a positive backdrop for both segments to achieve mid-to-high-single-digit growth. Group President Brett Argirakis attributed the industrial slowdown to softer demand in agricultural markets and inventory adjustments in steel, but noted the core business remains stable. Regarding margins, Douglas Dietrich stated that upside beyond 15% is possible, driven by volume growth, a favorable mix of higher-margin products, and disciplined cost control, with updated targets to be provided at year-end.

Dan Moore asked about the sustainability of the revenue uptick at TRS-RenTelco, the outlook for margins in the Portable Storage segment, and the strategy for managing fleet utilization, including potential divestments. He also inquired about the plan for refurbishing units versus new acquisitions and sought clarity on whether the revised guidance already contemplates further market weakness.

Answer

Executive Keith E. Pratt described the TRS momentum as a solid, broad-based progression but tempered expectations for the second half due to macro uncertainty. For Portable Storage, he expects margins to stabilize after seeing some pressure on rental-related services, which is being addressed operationally. Pratt explained the company prefers to hold its high-quality storage fleet rather than sell into a weak market, leveraging its long useful life and providing insulation from tariff risks. He confirmed that refurbishing existing units remains the preferred, cash-flow-efficient way to meet demand. The updated guidance reflects caution about potential customer slowdowns in the second half of the year.

Dan Moore asked if Mobile Modular utilization is expected to stabilize and grow in 2025, and inquired about the likely cadence of revenue growth between the first and second halves of the year. He also questioned when the Portable Storage business might see a turnaround and asked for more detail on the 'green shoots' observed in the TRS-RenTelco segment. Finally, he sought to confirm that the incremental operating expense to prepare fleet was a direct one-to-one reduction to the EBITDA outlook and asked about capital allocation alternatives like buybacks if M&A is not pursued.

Answer

Executive Joseph Hanna confirmed that increasing utilization is a key objective for 2025. Executive Keith E. Pratt added that this improvement would likely be weighted toward the second half of the year, which is also typically stronger for revenue. Hanna noted that while Portable Storage is seeing positive activity now, the benefits to results will likely materialize in the second half. For TRS-RenTelco, Hanna identified the 'green shoots' as consistent bookings outpacing returns, with specific strength in R&D and data center-related projects. Pratt confirmed the $9 million to $13 million in higher operating costs is a 'one-for-one deduct to EBITDA.' Regarding capital allocation, Pratt reiterated that the company is well-positioned and will remain flexible across all its options.

Dan Moore inquired about the primary drivers for the upward revision of the fiscal 2026 margin target, the potential for sustained margin upside compared to competitors, clarification on the $9 million AI revenue in Q3, the outlook for the Learning segment, and near-term capital allocation priorities.

Answer

CEO Matthew Kissner and Interim CFO Christopher Caridi attributed the improved margin target to a strategic rationalization of the cost structure, particularly in corporate shared services, aiming for a sustainable 100+ basis point improvement. Kissner confirmed the $9 million in AI revenue was entirely within the Research segment in Q3. EVP Jay Flynn and CFO Caridi addressed the Learning segment, noting that despite a tough comparison, underlying strength in courseware and other licensing deals supports a positive outlook. Regarding capital allocation, Kissner stated the company will evaluate an increased pace of share repurchases with its growing free cash flow.

Dan Moore from CJS Securities inquired about the momentum and sustainability of growth in the Learning business. He also asked about trends in the Research segment, including article submissions and the potential impact of the new national subscription agreement in India. Moore's questions also covered future cost reduction opportunities, the status of collections from divested businesses, capital allocation priorities, and plans for future investor relations events like an Analyst Day.

Answer

James Flynn, EVP and GM of Research and Learning, attributed Learning's performance to margin improvements, zyBooks platform growth, and a recovery in the trade business. For Research, he highlighted the new India agreement's potential and noted a recovery in Western submission markets. President and CEO Matthew Kissner emphasized that cost management is a continuous effort and confirmed an Investor Day is planned for the next calendar year. Interim CFO Christopher Caridi stated that while it's premature to quantify new savings, the company maintains a balanced capital allocation strategy and expects to receive divestiture proceeds, though timing is uncertain.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about several key areas: the momentum in Research article submissions and its translation to revenue, the pipeline for future AI content licensing deals, the reasons for higher-than-expected operating expenses despite cost-saving initiatives, and the company's capital allocation priorities given its current leverage.

Answer

CEO Matthew Kissner and EVP James Flynn addressed the Research segment, noting strong submission growth and a healthy pipeline, expressing 'cautious optimism' while clarifying that revenue conversion is not one-to-one. On AI, they confirmed significant interest but stated Wiley is being selective with partners to protect author rights and build long-term value. CFO Christina Van Tassell explained that Q1 expenses were impacted by timing and onetime items that will normalize, reaffirming full-year guidance. She also detailed capital allocation priorities, including the dividend, share repurchases, and strategic investments, with a long-term goal of restoring free cash flow to over $200 million.

Dan Moore inquired about the potential for offensive revenue synergies from the merger and whether the company planned to quantify them. He also sought clarification on the 2025 adjusted free cash flow guidance calculation.

Answer

CEO Robbert Rietbroek detailed revenue synergy opportunities, including expanding premium brands like Mountain Valley and Saratoga into new channels and leveraging the combined distribution network, with more details to come at the Investor Day. CFO David Hass clarified that the free cash flow guidance is driven by after-tax synergy capture and base EBITDA, and outlined capital allocation priorities as top-line growth, dividends, and opportunistic buybacks.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about Cavco's business trajectory, order rates, and production plans, particularly the decision to ramp up production in a seasonally slow quarter. He also asked for details on the Financial Services segment's exceptional performance, including underwriting changes, and sought guidance on a sustainable long-term margin for that business and the forward-looking tax rate. Finally, he asked about capital allocation priorities.

Answer

President and CEO William Boor explained that the decision to increase production was based on positive leading indicators like healthy retail traffic, rising conversion rates, and improving industry-wide shipment data. For the Financial Services segment, he attributed the strong quarter to normal seasonality, successful premium increases, and specific underwriting changes, such as adjusting roof damage coverage. EVP and CFO Allison Aden advised that an average of recent quarters would be a more normalized tax rate and detailed capital allocation priorities, starting with organic growth and M&A, followed by chattel lending and share repurchases.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities asked for details on geographic demand trends, production ramp-ups, and sequential growth in community and REIT channels. He also inquired about the Q3 production outlook considering hurricane disruptions, potential long-term tailwinds from HUD code changes, the factory-built gross margin forecast, and the potential demand impact from hurricane rebuilding and FEMA activities.

Answer

President and CEO William Boor noted strong demand in the Southeast and Texas, particularly for lower price-point products, while Florida lags. He stated the community inventory recovery is mostly complete, providing a tailwind. Boor explained that while production days were lost due to hurricanes, the main Q3 variable is the pace of retail activity rebound, which appears optimistic. He also touched on the long-term positive trends from HUD code changes. Regarding hurricane-related demand, Boor expects it to be a drawn-out process and noted that while FEMA has been in contact, no tangible orders have materialized. EVP and CFO Allison Aden added that gross margins are primarily driven by pricing and material costs, noting that lower input costs have a 60-day lag and that the company maintains leverage on overhead as volume ramps.

Daniel Moore from CJS Securities asked for an elaboration on trends in the heating and cooking space, particularly differentiating between large-format and smaller consumer products. He also sought more detail on the company's 'think like a startup' mentality, its strategic direction under the new CEO, the outlook for the Sustainable Energy Solutions JV, and the company's approach to share buybacks versus M&A.

Answer

CEO Joseph Hayek explained that the large-format heating tank business returned to growth, while the smaller gas grill tank business was temporarily hampered by a facility modernization project, which is now complete. He clarified that the 'startup' mentality involves re-evaluating historical processes to optimize the business for growth in any environment, while maintaining the core people-first culture. He noted the Sustainable Energy JV is expected to be 'flattish.' Regarding capital allocation, Hayek reiterated a bias for growth through M&A but confirmed that share buybacks remain a flexible tool, especially if M&A opportunities are not compelling.

Dan Moore from CJS Securities inquired about Q4 production rates following the successful fall show, order trends early in the quarter, potential impacts from recent hurricanes, and the outlook for gross margin normalization.

Answer

Executive Robert Bates explained that the fall show was a catalyst to ramp production, though some shipments were delayed as customers waited for new product features. He confirmed Q4 product sales are expected to be up over Q3. Bates noted that order momentum has been steady post-show, with community park customers returning. While the company was unscathed by the hurricanes, they anticipate future rebuild work. Bates projected gross margins would return to the low 30s in Q4, recovering from lower absorption in Q3.

Dan Moore of CJS Securities inquired about quantifying the Q2 shipment delays pushed into Q3, recent order rates and backlog changes, the potential value of assets from the litigation settlement, the market value of non-core real estate, the recent stabilization of Average Selling Prices (ASPs), and the net impact of potential interest rate changes on the business.

Answer

Executive Jeffrey Fiedelman acknowledged shipment delays, particularly in Georgia, expecting a ramp-up in Q3. Executive Robert Bates noted a strong sales week and rising RSVPs for their fall show, indicating positive momentum. Regarding the litigation, Bates stated they are assessing the value of the acquired park assets but see potential upside. He also highlighted the monetization of non-core real estate, citing a recent $1.3 million gain on a previously unrecognized asset. Bates confirmed that ASPs have likely bottomed out and should be stable. He concluded that falling interest rates would primarily benefit the park side of the business by encouraging real estate transactions, but Legacy's core focus remains on affordability regardless of the rate environment.

Speaking on behalf of Dan Moore, Will asked if another Marketing Services EBITDA decline should be expected next year due to publication timing, about confidence in 2025 consolidated EBITDA growth, and about the pro forma annualized free cash flow including Keap.

Answer

CEO Joe Walsh and CFO Paul Rouse confirmed that Marketing Services EBITDA will be down in Q1 2025 due to the timing of an evolving print publication schedule, which is now extending to 24 months. They stated that the overall decline in the segment will likely accelerate due to faster SaaS conversions. However, they declined to provide full-year 2025 guidance for consolidated EBITDA or free cash flow, deferring those details to the upcoming Analyst Day.

Daniel Moore inquired about expectations for order rates and backlog amid seasonality and election uncertainty, the tone from REIT and community developer customers, and the company's capital allocation priorities, particularly its appetite for M&A.

Answer

CEO Mark Yost noted that while near-term order rates have softened as consumers await election outcomes, underlying demand from community REITs and builder-developers remains very strong. He stated that M&A is a top priority with a robust pipeline, complemented by innovation investments and shareholder returns enabled by strong cash flow.

Dan Moore from Scopus asked for a framework on the potential earnings power in the next freight upcycle, questioning the possible extent of margin improvement and the glide path to higher profitability.

Answer

Executive James Grant provided context on earnings potential, explaining that a 2% rate increase could add over $0.30 to EPS due to high operating leverage. He noted that while the company may not reach its 2022 peak earnings, there is 'significant upside' from the current trough, driven by rate improvements, a recovery in their TEL investment, and a continued focus on profitable customer growth. He highlighted the company's demonstrated earnings stability through the downturn.

Asked about differences in growth and retention between residential and commercial customers, the long-term opportunity in each segment, and the potential for future price increases.

Answer

David Hass stated there's no meaningful difference in retention or behavior between residential and commercial customers, with the base split roughly 50/50. He noted that the updated guidance reflects a step-up in volume contribution rather than new pricing actions. The focus is on stimulating the category by acquiring new customers through various channels, including dispenser sales, as new customers are not sensitive to past price levels.

Asked about what attracted the new CEO to the role at Primo, what capabilities he brings to enhance the company's outlook, and how the current macroeconomic environment affects the view on cost inflation.

Answer

The CEO was attracted by Primo's position in the health and wellness sector and its strong sustainability focus. He sees opportunities to enhance growth through affordability, premium water, and operational productivity. The company forecasts low single-digit inflation for 2024, which is viewed as a favorable environment for their value proposition.

Asked about the financial and regulatory aspects of the divestiture, including potential tax leakage and regulatory hurdles. Also questioned the valuation multiple received and the potential for further improvements in route density.

Answer

The company expects minimal tax leakage (sub-$10M) and does not anticipate significant regulatory hurdles for the transaction. They declined to comment on valuation specifics for remaining assets to protect negotiating power. They confirmed there is still room to improve route density by 3-4% quarterly, driven by customer density and tuck-in acquisitions.