Daniel Mora

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital followed up on Bladex's 13%-15% loan growth guidance, asking which specific countries or regions, beyond Guatemala and Argentina, are expected to drive this growth. He also inquired about countries where Bladex anticipates reducing exposure or facing high competitive pressures.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu indicated that Bladex expects a balanced approach to achieving its growth guidance, with no single country expected to show disproportionately larger growth, though the dynamic nature of the business could change this. He identified Colombia (fiscal situation, sovereign rating downgrade risk) and Brazil (increased bankruptcies, potential large corporate defaults) as countries of concern. However, he also noted that these challenges could create opportunities for Bladex to grow if other banks scale back. CEO Jorge Salas emphasized the constant reshuffling of Bladex's short-duration portfolio to maximize risk-return exposures.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital sought more color on the specific countries or regions expected to drive the 13%-15% loan growth in 2026, particularly amid a favorable emerging markets cycle. He also asked which countries Bladex anticipates reducing exposure to, or where high competitive pressures are observed.

Answer

Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu stated that 2026 growth is expected to be well-balanced across countries, with no single region anticipated to see much larger growth, though dynamic opportunities could shift this. He expressed concern about Colombia's fiscal situation and potential sovereign rating downgrade, and Brazil's increased bankruptcies and default risks from large corporations. However, he noted these concerns could also create opportunities for Bladex to grow as other banks step down, leveraging its strong capital base, including in the secondary loan market.

Daniel Mora of CrediCorp asked about the total loan portfolio's exposure to U.S. trade beyond Mexico and inquired about the deployment strategy for the new trade finance and treasury platforms, specifically whether it would be country-by-country or a broader rollout.

Answer

Executive Jorge Salas explained that potential tariffs on Mexico and China could create export opportunities for other Latin American countries like Brazil, which Bladex is positioned to finance. Chief Commercial Officer Samuel Canineu added that the new trade finance platform is country-agnostic and will be piloted with key relationships before being deployed to all clients.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital inquired about the bank's Net Interest Margin (NIM) sensitivity to falling interest rates and its target for non-interest income as a percentage of total income, and whether ROE could surpass the 2026 guidance.

Answer

CFO Ana de Mendez explained that a 100-basis point change in interest rates impacts NIM by approximately 12 basis points and ROE by 100 basis points, due to the floating-rate nature of the balance sheet. She noted that new products should help sustain profitability. CEO Jorge Salas added that the bank's target is to increase non-interest income from the current 13% to 18% of total revenues by the end of 2026, driven by new platform initiatives.

Daniel Mora asked for clarification on why IFS expects a 17% ROE for 2026, despite achieving a normalized ROE of 18.5% in 2025. He inquired about specific factors from 2025 that might not repeat and the expected ROE for each company within the 17% ROE scenario for the current year.

Answer

Luis Felipe Castellanos, CEO of Intercorp Financial Services, explained that the 18.5% normalized ROE in 2025 benefited from strong performance in some investments (Telesco, Growth Reserve) at the holding company level. He clarified that a more stable, sustainable higher ROE depends on the continued recovery of the bank's consumer and higher-yielding loan book, which is a gradual process, thus influencing the 17% ROE expectation for 2026.

Daniel Mora sought clarification on the factors preventing IFS from achieving an 18% ROE in 2026, given a normalized 18.5% in 2025, and asked for the ROE expectations for each company within the 17% ROE scenario for the year.

Answer

Luis Felipe Castellanos (CEO, Intercorp Financial Services) explained that 2025 benefited from strong performance in investments, particularly in Inteligo and at the holding company level. He emphasized that achieving a more stable, sustainable higher ROE depends on the continued recovery of the bank's consumer and higher-yielding loans book. He noted that Interbank's Q4 ROE was around 16%, and its improvement is crucial for pushing the overall IFS ROE towards the medium-term objective.

Via webcast, Daniel Mora from CrediCorp Capital asked for an update on the Telefonica corporate case, questioning if the provision coverage was sufficient, and requested the normalized net profit and ROE for Q1 after excluding this effect.

Answer

Executive Luis Castellanos López-Torres reiterated that the company is comfortable with its current provision levels for the Telefonica case based on available information. He stated that if the one-time provision effect were excluded, the company's earnings would have been 'north of $500 million.'

Daniel Mora questioned if the new guidance of 19-21% for return on average capital (ROAC) is conservative compared to competitors and if it represents the long-term ROAC figure. He also asked how Banco de Chile expects to expand profitability and if there's a long-term ROAC figure incorporating the use of excess capital.

Answer

Pablo Mejia (Head of Investor Relations) acknowledged that while a higher CET1 ratio might lead to a lower ROAC, Banco de Chile aims to be the leader in returns. He stated that the 19-21% guidance is for the current year, with the medium-term strategy focused on deploying excess capital through organic and inorganic growth to generate better returns and regain leadership in ROAC. He clarified that there isn't a specific long-term ROAC figure, but banks typically maintain capital levels around 1.5% above regulatory limits for normal operations.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital questioned Banco de Chile's 2026 ROAC guidance of 19-21%, noting it seemed conservative compared to competitors and asking if this was a long-term figure and how the bank plans to expand profitability.

Answer

Pablo Mejia, Head of Investor Relations, acknowledged that while Banco de Chile's higher CET1 ratio might lead to a lower ROAC compared to some peers, the bank aims to be the leader in returns. He stated that the 19-21% guidance is for the current year, with potential for evolution if conditions change. In the medium term, the strategy is to deploy excess capital through organic and inorganic growth to generate better returns and improve ROAC, aiming for levels similar to its leading return on average assets. He reiterated that banks typically maintain capital 1.5% above regulatory limits for normal business operations.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp asked for a detailed breakdown of Banco Santander Chile's 2026 loan growth guidance by segment, including insights into competitive pressures, particularly in the commercial segment. He also inquired about the expected evolution of asset quality indicators and the path for NPLs and cost of risk in 2026, given the guidance for reduction.

Answer

Patricia Pérez, CFO, outlined expectations for homogeneous loan growth across consumer, mortgage (boosted by subsidies), and commercial segments, with commercial growth tied to the political landscape. Cristián Vicuña, Head of Strategy and Investor Relations, added that SME growth is projected at mid-single digits, with large corporate investment being a key variable. He acknowledged some competitive growth but anticipates overall commercial improvement. Regarding asset quality, Mr. Vicuña noted a year-to-date cost of risk of 1.4%, attributing recent increases to commercial NPL write-offs, and expressed confidence in improving cost of risk for future periods.

Daniel Mora asked for further color on expected loan growth by segment for 2026, competitive pressures in loan growth (especially in the commercial segment), and the expected path of asset quality indicators and cost of risk in 2026 given a slight deterioration in NPLs in consumer and mortgage segments.

Answer

Patricia Pérez (CFO) stated that loan growth for 2026 is expected to be homogeneous across segments, with healthy consumer loan growth, better dynamics in mortgage (due to government subsidies), and improved commercial loan dynamics, especially if the political landscape is favorable. Cristián Vicuña (Head of Strategy and Investor Relations) added that retail SMEs are expected to grow mid-single digits, with large corporates' investment decisions being a key variable. He also addressed NPLs and cost of risk, noting that the increase in cost of risk this year was mainly due to write-offs of commercial NPLs (down from 4.1% to 3.4%), which are not expected to continue, leading to an anticipated improvement in total cost of risk.

Daniel Mora questioned when a turnaround in NPLs, especially in the commercial segment, could be expected and asked what management considers a normalized NPL ratio for the bank's current portfolio mix.

Answer

Cristian Vicuna, Chief of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations, stated that a normalized NPL ratio for the current portfolio mix would be in the low-2s range (2.2% to 2.4%). He indicated that the bank is nearing a turnaround point for absolute NPL figures, with an expected improvement materializing in the next 6 to 9 months, noting that the recent ratio increase was partly due to a smaller loan book denominator.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital asked for an explanation of the bank's higher NPL ratio compared to peers, specifically questioning the drivers in the commercial loan segment and the actions being taken for improvement.

Answer

Cristian Vicuna, Chief of Strategic Planning and Investor Relations, stated that the NPL increase aligns with the economic cycle. He specified that in the commercial portfolio, the increase is concentrated in single names within the agriculture and real estate sectors, which are well-collateralized. He anticipates the situation will improve in the second half of the year and noted the bank's normalized cost of risk should be between 1.1% and 1.2%.

Daniel Mora from Credicorp Capital posed three questions: 1) When to expect the peak in asset quality deterioration and if it will affect 2024. 2) The expected margin performance for each individual bank. 3) The long-term profitability target and the key drivers to achieve it.

Answer

CEO Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez projected that asset quality deterioration would likely peak in Q2 or Q3 2023. He explained that retail-focused banks (Popular, Villas) face greater margin pressure than commercial banks (Bogotá, Occidente), which will recover faster. He stated the long-term goal is to return to a 15% ROE, driven by margin recovery and the normalization of portfolio quality in the coming year.