Question · Q4 2025
Dan Perlin asked about Shift4's backlog, noting a decrease from $35 billion to $32 billion, and inquired if the burn rate is now exceeding net new signings. He also questioned how the 2026 total end-to-end volume guide of $240 billion-$260 billion, which appears to tilt more towards SMBs, impacts forecasting visibility compared to past enterprise-heavy years.
Answer
Taylor Lauber, CEO, explained that the slight step down in backlog was due to higher-than-anticipated enterprise volume in Q4 (e.g., Alterra Ikon Pass), which burned through the backlog faster, noting that most SMB opportunities do not hit the backlog. For volume forecasting, he stated that in the Americas, SMB forecasts are reliable due to the business's 28-year history, and enterprise contributions have matured. Internationally, the skew is heavily towards SMBs making quick decisions, with larger groups just starting to play through, and anticipates an acceleration in international SMB additions, grounded in data from PSPs.
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