Daniel Politzer

Daniel Politzer asked about the flattish leisure outlook, specifically what's embedded for Nashville given it was a headwind in 2025, and sought clarification on whether the comfort with the 2027 guidance from January 2024 now includes Desert Ridge, which was acquired later.

Answer

Patrick Chaffin, Chief Operating Officer, stated that Gaylord Opryland in Nashville has a solid book of business, with flattish leisure due to group demand pushing out leisure opportunities, but the market has held its own despite supply increases. Mark Fioravanti, President and Chief Executive Officer, clarified that while Desert Ridge wasn't in the original 2024 projections, the plan assumed a Rockies rooms addition. He noted that trading one for the other keeps them well within the original guidance range, regardless of Desert Ridge's inclusion.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked a high-level question about how management's view on macro uncertainty has evolved over the past three months and how that reconciles with the outlook for lead volumes and the broader business.

Answer

Executive Chairman Colin Reed expressed more optimism than three months prior, citing greater clarity on tax policy and the potential for interest rate cuts. President & CEO Mark Fioravanti emphasized the resilience and strong positioning of their unique assets and portfolio, noting that while uncertainty remains, the business has proven durable. He stated their focus is on execution and controlling what they can.

Daniel Politzer asked for insights into the EBITDA contribution from higher-end properties like Durango, Green Valley Ranch, and Red Rock to better understand customer quality and asset value, and sought clarification on disruption expectations for Durango's next expansion phase.

Answer

Stephen Cootey, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, stated that the company does not break down segment EBITDA but confirmed all assets are performing well. Scott Kreeger, President, noted significant customer crossover between properties. Lorenzo Fertitta, Vice Chairman, added that VIP high-end play is observed across the system, not just at top properties, and new amenities attract a younger demographic. Regarding Durango disruption, Lorenzo Fertitta explained that major disruption typically stems from parking or hotel room closures. Stephen Cootey and Scott Kreeger indicated it's too early to quantify the disruption for the new phase, as construction logistics are just beginning, but they expect it to be short-term (16-18 months).

Daniel Politzer asked about framing the EBITDA contribution from higher-end properties like Durango, Green Valley Ranch, and Red Rock to better understand customer quality and asset value. He also sought to quantify the expected disruption from the Durango phase two/three expansion.

Answer

Stephen Cootey, EVP, CFO, and Treasurer, stated that Red Rock Resorts does not break down segment EBITDA but confirmed all assets are performing well. Scott Kreeger, President, noted significant customer crossover between properties. Lorenzo Fertitta, Vice Chairman, added that VIP and high-end play is observed across the system, not just at top properties, and that asset upgrades are attracting higher-end customers and growing the market. Regarding Durango disruption, Lorenzo Fertitta explained that major disruption typically stems from parking or room closures, which are less of a factor for the current expansion. Stephen Cootey and Scott Kreeger indicated it is too early to quantify the exact disruption for Durango's new phase but expect it to be short-term.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo asked to confirm the timing of peak construction disruption, the observed business impact from F1 and the Super Bowl, and for guidance on corporate expense growth.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger confirmed peak disruption from renovations would occur in Q3 and Q4. Executive Lorenzo Fertitta stated the Super Bowl provides a 'significant positive impact,' while F1 is an 'absolutely zero impact' event for their business. Executive Stephen Cootey projected corporate expenses would remain stable at around $21 million.

Daniel Politzer requested an update on the company's tavern strategy and asked for details regarding the development fee structure for the North Fork project.

Answer

Executive Scott Kreeger reported that the first of seven planned taverns recently opened and is outperforming expectations, with two more launching by mid-2025. He credited the success to the Boarding Pass loyalty program and market underpenetration. Executive Stephen Cootey clarified the North Fork development fee applies to the construction financing amount, not the total project cost.

Daniel Politzer asked for a broad overview of the M&A environment, noting recent transactions and Churchill Downs' participation in Casino Salem, and inquired about the current level of activity or interest.

Answer

CEO Bill Carstanjen acknowledged a recent pickup in M&A activity, particularly in the brick-and-mortar space, and noted that such announcements provide clarity on property valuations. He stated that Churchill Downs is a flexible and opportunistic participant in the market, always paying attention to trends.

Daniel Politzer from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked if the projected $50-60 million in 2025 cash tax savings from a new federal bill could be extrapolated for 2026, and how this impacts capital allocation, particularly share repurchases.

Answer

CFO Marcia Dall confirmed that the cash tax savings in 2026 are expected to be comparable to the 2025 figure. She reiterated that the company's capital allocation priority is investing in growth projects like the Derby and HRMs, followed by dividend growth, with share repurchases used opportunistically when the stock is undervalued.

Daniel Politzer questioned how the company gained comfort investing in new HRM projects given the challenges at Derby City Downtown and asked for a profitability timeline for that specific property.

Answer

CEO William C. Carstanjen explained that their confidence in new HRM projects stems from extensive and overwhelmingly positive experience. He acknowledged Derby City Downtown's slower ramp was due to post-COVID changes in downtown Louisville's foot traffic, a macro factor that was a surprise. He assured that the team is rightsizing the cost structure and expects to see consistent quarter-to-quarter profitability improvements starting in the next quarter.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the drivers of Wynn's Las Vegas outperformance and the outlook for the rest of the year. He also asked about the factors behind the recent market inflection in Macau.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings attributed the Las Vegas success to high-end positioning and strategic operational improvements, noting strong booking pace acceleration in July. For Macau, he cited a combination of factors, including a strong entertainment calendar, but emphasized that underlying market strength continued into July. COO Brian Gullbrants added that the Las Vegas team is bullish on Q4.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo asked what fundamentally changed to drive the constructive tone on Las Vegas performance, given strong results. He also inquired about the capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding leverage thresholds for share repurchases.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings responded that their positive tone has been consistent, attributing strong performance to strategic improvements made over the past three years, not a recent change. Executive Brian Gullbrants added that specific enhancements to the high-limit slot room contributed. On capital allocation, Billings stated they don't have published leverage targets but are very comfortable with current levels and will continue to repurchase shares, viewing them as a good value.

Daniel Politzer asked about the company's capital allocation strategy, specifically how the increased share repurchase authorization would be deployed and how it balances with CapEx needs in Las Vegas and Macau.

Answer

CEO Craig Billings stated that share repurchases are opportunistic, executed when the stock appears cheap, and balanced against growth CapEx and deleveraging. CFO Julie Cameron-Doe detailed CapEx plans, including approximately $300 million for Las Vegas projects (villas, F&B, Encore Tower renovation) and a tightened range of $350 million to $425 million for Macau concession commitments through 2025.

Daniel Politzer from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for a ranking of expected returns on the four major retail projects and inquired about strategic changes for the upcoming NFL season kickoff with ESPN Bet.

Answer

CEO Jay Snowden declined to rank the projects but reiterated his confidence in strong returns from all four, citing their unique market advantages. For the NFL season, Snowden and CTO Aaron LaBerge emphasized that the strategy is less about changing promotional spend and more about superior execution. They highlighted a frictionless user experience, deep fantasy integrations, improved personalization, and better CRM as key differentiators this year.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo inquired about the iGaming business, including customer profile and its contribution to 2025 interactive guidance, and asked about the implications of ESPN ending its video contract with Major League Baseball.

Answer

CEO Jay Snowden confirmed iGaming is a positive contributor to guidance, driven by strong slot performance from the new Hollywood app, which attracts a demographic that complements the sports betting audience. CTO Aaron LaBerge noted this growth was achieved efficiently from their database. Regarding baseball, Snowden clarified that while the video package is changing, ESPN will retain robust stats and scores, ensuring continued integration opportunities for ESPN BET.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo sought to clarify the Q4 interactive guidance, asking how much of the negative revision was due to hold versus other factors. He also asked if Penn has research on where its brick-and-mortar database currently plays iGaming.

Answer

CEO Jay Snowden reiterated that the conservative Q4 interactive outlook was entirely due to the negative impact of low hold percentage to start the quarter. Regarding the iGaming database, Snowden stated they believe their customers play across various platforms and that the key to capturing them is the loyalty program connection and the ability to redeem land-based rewards in the new iCasino app.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan asked about the 100 basis point acceleration in structural hold and its future implications. He also requested an update on the 2026 EBITDA target of $1.4 billion, considering recent tax increases and other market changes.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins attributed the structural hold improvement primarily to a 430 basis point increase in parlay bet mix. Regarding the 2026 outlook, he acknowledged that recent tax hikes created a ~$200 million headwind for next year, and while underlying business strength will offset some of this, it likely won't offset all of it.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about the drivers behind the 100 basis point acceleration in structural hold and requested an update on the 2026 EBITDA outlook of $1.4 billion, considering recent tax increases and other moving parts.

Answer

Co-Founder & CEO Jason Robins attributed the structural hold improvement primarily to a 430 basis point increase in parlay mix. Regarding the 2026 outlook, he acknowledged that recent tax increases amount to a ~$200 million headwind for next year. While outperformance in core value drivers will offset some of this, he stated they likely won't be able to offset all of it.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo asked about the strength of the DraftKings brand in both sports and iGaming, the potential for a multi-brand strategy, and the gaming tax assumptions embedded in the 2025 guidance.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins asserted that the DraftKings brand is 'incredibly strong' in both verticals and that the success of Golden Nugget has proven out a multi-brand iGaming model, though he sees it as less applicable to sports. He clarified that the 2025 guidance assumes no changes in tax rates, as the company does not forecast legislative outcomes until they are finalized.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo asked about reaching the 2026 revenue forecast a year early and the potential for sales & marketing leverage from expiring deals.

Answer

CEO Jason Robins acknowledged they are a year ahead of their Investor Day forecast, attributing it to stronger-than-expected industry growth and suggesting the Total Addressable Market (TAM) is larger than previously thought. He agreed that as growth normalizes, flow-through will improve, and confirmed that expiring marketing deals present a future opportunity for leverage.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for more details on the San Francisco recovery and whether Sunstone expects to be a net buyer or seller of assets over the next 1-2 years.

Answer

CEO Bryan Giglia described the San Francisco recovery as a multiyear lift from the bottom, with their hotel outperforming due to its location and quality. On capital allocation, he stated Sunstone is more likely to be a seller in the current environment, recycling capital into share repurchases, but stressed their ability to pivot quickly if acquisition opportunities become more attractive.

Daniel Politzer questioned the long-term target for international EBITDA as a percentage of total EBITDA and asked about the expected RevPAR cadence for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CFO Scott Oaksmith confirmed that international business was about 6% of EBITDA before the Canada deal and is growing strongly, up 10% in the quarter. Regarding RevPAR, he explained the guidance midpoint assumes Q2 trends continue. He also reminded analysts of a tough Q4 comparison due to a 125 basis point benefit from hurricane-related demand in the prior year.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. sought to understand the dynamics of the group business, questioning the contrast between near-term choppiness and the strengthening booking pace for 2026.

Answer

President & CEO Anthony Capuano explained that the 2026 group pace is now up 8%, an increase from 7% a quarter ago, with no abnormal cancellations. He attributed near-term softness to a slight uptick in attrition and fewer 'in the year for the year' bookings due to macro uncertainty. CFO Leeny Oberg added that the Q2 weakness was evenly split between attrition and softer short-term bookings.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo asked about the outlook for the leisure segment in 2025 and requested clarification on non-RevPAR fees, including the Q3 amount and the full-year growth forecast.

Answer

CFO and EVP, Development Leeny Oberg suggested that 2025 could look a lot like the back half of 2024, with continued strength in group and business transient, and slight growth in leisure. For non-RevPAR fees, she highlighted lumpy residential branding fees ($18M in Q3 '24 vs $7M in Q3 '23) as a key driver and confirmed the full-year growth forecast remains at the high end of single digits, around 9% to 10%.

Daniel Politzer asked for clarification on the group booking pace, questioning the dynamic of a flat 2026 outlook despite strong trends in Q4 2025 and 2027, and also inquired about the outlook for labor expense growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Thomas Baltimore explained that Q3 2025 softness was due to tough year-over-year comps, while Q4 group pace is up a strong 18% across a broad base of markets. For 2026 and beyond, he expressed confidence in lead volumes and the renovated portfolio. CFO Sean Dell'Orto addressed labor costs, stating that with many union contracts settled, he expects sustained benefits from cost initiatives and underlying labor expense growth in the 4% to 4.5% range for 2026.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested more detail on group business trends, specifically regarding lead volumes by segment (corporate vs. association) and any changes in ancillary spending patterns.

Answer

EVP & CFO Sourav Ghosh noted that group weakness is more concentrated in the association segment, particularly those with government funding ties. However, he stressed that guest spending remains robust, pointing to a 7% increase in banquet and catering revenue per group room night in Q2, which signals continued health in group-related ancillary spend.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. requested more detail on group business, asking about lead volume trends between corporate and association segments and any changes in group spending patterns.

Answer

EVP & CFO Sourav Ghosh specified that booking weakness is more pronounced in the association segment, particularly those reliant on government funding. However, he stressed that groups on-property are spending well, highlighting that Q2 banquet and catering revenue per group room night increased by 7% despite lower group volume, a trend expected to persist.

Daniel Politzer from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for the reasons behind the implied revenue growth deceleration in the second half of the year and questioned if market access fees could become a material driver for margin improvement.

Answer

CFO Kyle Sauers attributed the second-half deceleration to several factors: lapping the Delaware launch, tougher comps and VAT uncertainty in Colombia, a non-recurring $5M Q2 sports hold benefit, and a conservative outlook on maturing iCasino markets. Regarding market access fees, Sauers stated that while some opportunities may arise, he does not view them as a 'big needle mover' for gross margins, which are more likely to improve from revenue mix and scale with vendors.

Daniel Politzer asked for quantification of the Colombian tax impact within the 2025 guidance and for a breakdown of the projected 13% revenue growth between Latin America and the U.S. He also inquired if guidance includes other potential U.S. tax hikes and how the company weighs that risk against the upside of iGaming legalization.

Answer

Executive Kyle Sauers clarified that the full impact of the Colombian tax is baked into both the high and low ends of the 2025 guidance, with upside potential if the tax is repealed. He noted that most absolute growth will come from iCasino markets. Sauers also confirmed that no other proposed tax changes are included in the guidance. CEO Richard Schwartz added that while tax hikes are near-term setbacks, they highlight states' need for revenue, which could accelerate iGaming legalization, creating a long-term net benefit.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for management's perspective on the drivers behind the year-long decline in Las Vegas Strip visitation and sought clarity on the various factors expected to impact Q3 results, such as the MGM Grand disruption and lapping prior-year insurance proceeds.

Answer

CEO & President Bill Hornbuckle attributed the visitation decline to weaker international travel, reduced air capacity, and a quieter Southern California market. CFO Jonathan Halkyard confirmed that Q3 trends would be similar to June, impacted by the MGM Grand remodel, and noted the difficult year-over-year comparison due to $37 million in cyber insurance proceeds received in Q3 2024.

Daniel Politzer asked if a change in promotional strategy was driving slot share gains and sought clarification on the growth outlook for Q1 and the full year, given the Super Bowl headwind.

Answer

Executive Jonathan Halkyard stated there was no meaningful change in promotional strategy. He clarified that overcoming the $65 million Super Bowl headwind in Q1 would be 'pretty difficult.' Executive William Hornbuckle stressed that underlying trends, excluding the Super Bowl, remain positive and progressive.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo inquired about the capital invested in the direct-to-consumer digital business (MGM International Digital) and the expected timeline for returns. He also asked about Macau's recent market share performance and the potential impacts from competitors and government stimulus.

Answer

CEO William Hornbuckle indicated that capital investment in the digital arm is complete and projected the business could generate $400-$500 million in cash flow in 2026 and beyond. Regarding Macau, executives Kenny Feng and Hubert Wang reiterated a long-term market share target in the mid-teens, expecting performance to improve in H2 2025 as new capital projects come online.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. inquired about the recent stabilization in Las Vegas booking trends and sought tangible details on the drivers for expected growth in Q4 2025 and early 2026. He also asked for clarification on the Q3 outlook for Las Vegas EBITDAR.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg explained that forward booking forecasts for the next 90 days have stabilized after a period of decline. He attributed future growth to a record group calendar in Q4 2025 and into 2026, including major conferences like ConAg and State Farm, which provide leverage on room rates. Reeg confirmed that Q3 Las Vegas EBITDAR is expected to be down year-over-year, similar to Q2's high single-digit decline.

Daniel Politzer asked for an assessment of the regulatory landscape regarding potential gaming tax increases and inquired about the drivers and sustainability of the recent improvement in iGaming hold percentage.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg characterized tax hike discussions as a headline cycle, suggesting the larger, long-term opportunity for states is legalizing iCasino. President of Caesars Sports and Online Gaming Eric Hession noted iGaming hold was around 3.6% in Q4 and the goal is to reach the 4% range through product improvements, proprietary content, and new betting options.

Daniel Politzer asked about a cash distribution from the Pompano project, inquiring if it was a recurring event, and requested parameters for 2025 free cash flow, including interest expense and cash taxes. He also sought guidance on the impact of the Danville property expansion, specifically regarding revenue, EBITDA, and margins.

Answer

CEO Tom Reeg confirmed that the Pompano cash distribution is expected to recur in coming quarters as the project develops. CFO Bret Yunker provided 2025 guidance: rent at ~$1.35B, cash CapEx at $600M-$650M, cash interest at $650M-$750M, and cash taxes at 15-20% of free cash flow. Regarding Danville, Tom Reeg explained the expansion will be margin dilutive (moving from ~60% to mid-30s) but will significantly increase total revenue and EBITDA, with the temporary facility generating about two-thirds of the permanent property's expected total EBITDA.

Daniel Politzer asked why strong revenue growth in the Midwest and South, attributed to unrated play, did not result in higher margins, and also inquired about business trends quarter-to-date in July.

Answer

EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg explained that margins in the Midwest and South were impacted by one-time headwinds, including flood-related property closures and the Easter calendar shift. Regarding July, he noted that trends from Q2 have continued, with consistent core customer growth and contributions from retail play, though CEO Keith Smith added caveats about disruptions at the Suncoast and softness on the Las Vegas Strip.

Daniel Politzer asked about the potential business impact of proposed federal tax reductions on tips and overtime, and also inquired about leverage targets and the potential use of stock as M&A currency.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Smith acknowledged that lower taxes for their customers would be a net positive but stated it's too early to quantify the impact. Regarding M&A, he noted that using stock is fact-specific and not their historical practice. EVP and CFO Josh Hirsberg clarified current leverage, and Keith reiterated their balanced capital allocation approach.

Daniel Politzer inquired about fourth-quarter-to-date consumer trends, particularly any changes in behavior related to the election cycle, and asked about any unique tax treatments for the Treasure Chest property in Louisiana.

Answer

President and CEO Keith Smith stated that through the first few weeks of October, there have been no discernible changes in consumer behavior, good or bad, despite noise from the election and world events. He also confirmed that Treasure Chest has a normal gaming tax rate for a non-racetrack facility in Louisiana, with nothing unusual to note.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan inquired about the net rooms growth outlook for 2026, the potential breakdown between U.S. and international growth, and clarification on the updated 2025 guidance range.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen indicated it was too early for specific 2026 guidance but reiterated the company's long-term objective of 3% to 5% annual growth. She expressed confidence in continued momentum driven by midscale, extended-stay, and high fee-per-room international markets. Regarding the 2025 outlook, she confirmed the raised low-end reflected increased confidence and the removal of the Super 8 China portfolio.

Daniel Politzer asked about the expected trajectory for royalty rate growth in 2025 and 2026, considering the recent step-up and the company's longer-term target of 4.75%.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen stated that the company is tracking slightly ahead of schedule on its royalty rate goals. She anticipates delivering around 5 basis points of improvement in both 2025 and 2026, which keeps the company in line with its plan to achieve 15 basis points of total improvement over the three-year period from 2024 to 2026.

Daniel Politzer asked if Las Vegas Sands has a specific target for EBITDA market share in Macau as it implements a more promotional strategy. He also followed up on Singapore, seeking to understand the drivers behind the sudden acceleration in gaming volumes during a seasonally soft quarter.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Robert Goldstein stated that the short-term goal for Macau is to achieve a $2.7 billion EBITDA run-rate, driven by GGR acceleration, strong assets, and a revised competitive strategy. For Singapore, President & COO Patrick Dumont attributed the strong performance to significant reinvestment in the property's physical product and service levels, which is attracting new, high-value customers. Robert Goldstein added that government support and the property's unique appeal to a large, high-end Asian market are also key factors.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo asked about the recent slowdown in mass volumes at the Venetian Macao and the expected return on the ~$8 billion investment in the Londoner, questioning if it would align with past projects.

Answer

President and COO Patrick Dumont attributed the Venetian's Q4 softness to temporary visitation disruptions and advised against viewing it as a trend. Sands China CEO Grant Chum added details on the new arena. Regarding the Londoner, Patrick Dumont and Chairman and CEO Robert Goldstein affirmed their belief in its very high-return potential over its 30-year life, emphasizing that its scale is designed to attract all market segments, not just premium mass, to achieve its target of over $1 billion in EBITDA.

Daniel Politzer asked about the regulatory outlook for Singapore's IR2 project, including licensing and tax rates, and inquired what is required for Macao property margins to return to the mid-to-high 30% range.

Answer

President and COO Patrick Dumont characterized Singapore as a stable operating environment with a gaming tax moratorium until the early 2030s. For Macao margins, he stated that achieving the high 30s level requires revenue growth, specifically from the return of the base mass segment, which the company's scaled assets are built to accommodate.

Daniel Politzer of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on the reinforced confidence in achieving the 6% to 7% net unit growth (NUG) target for the year.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Nassetta stated his confidence is driven by strong conversion activity, the upcoming launch of new conversion-friendly brands, and a significant 16-17% year-over-year increase in construction starts. He noted that with the largest pipeline in company history and half of it under construction, the company feels it is "solidly in that zone."

Daniel Politzer asked for more detail on the strong leisure occupancy in December, including geography and rate mix, and also inquired about any calendar shifts, like Easter, affecting the Q1 forecast.

Answer

Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO, said the strong Q4 leisure trend was widespread geographically, driven by how the holidays fell, and stimulated demand across all rate tiers. For Q1, Kevin Jacobs, CFO and President, Global Development, confirmed the shift of Easter from Q2 into Q1 is a net positive and is the primary driver for the slightly higher Q1 RevPAR guidance.

Daniel Politzer asked about current opportunities for Viking to be contrarian, its approach to M&A, and requested more detail on the booking slowdown in February and trends into March.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Torstein Hagen explained that his contrarian approach has enabled favorable newbuild contracts and that he prefers reinvesting the company's $2.5B cash reserve into the business over shareholder returns, while remaining ready for M&A that fits the 'one brand' strategy. President and CFO Leah Talactac confirmed February was slower after a record January but emphasized that with 2025 largely sold and 2026 pacing ahead, they are comfortable and have ample time to leverage their marketing engine.

Daniel Politzer asked for the drivers behind the strong and sustained 11% pricing growth for 2025 Ocean cruises, questioning if it was due to mix or specific itineraries. He also asked about capital allocation, specifically whether the company would consider share buybacks in conjunction with potential future secondary offerings by sponsors.

Answer

EVP of Finance Linh Banh explained that a key driver for the 2025 Ocean pricing strength is a change in deployment; Viking is operating only one World Cruise in 2025 compared to two in 2024, which had impacted 2024's yield base. CFO Leah Talactac reiterated that the company is focused on growth and is not currently contemplating share buybacks, viewing sponsor sell-downs and capital return as separate matters.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo asked for a comparison of demand between Europe and the Caribbean, the effect of the strong U.S. dollar, and commentary on potential changes to the cruise industry's tax structure following recent administration headlines.

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sommer highlighted strong demand for Europe and Alaska, noting the Caribbean is a smaller part of the summer deployment. EVP and CFO Mark Kempa stated that while a strong dollar has some minor benefits, it is an overall headwind to EPS. Regarding taxes, Sommer called the issue highly complex and declined to speculate on impacts, instead pointing to potential tailwinds from peace initiatives that could reopen key ports like St. Petersburg.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo & Company inquired about the contribution from co-branded credit card fees and the timeline for the program's renewal.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian highlighted that the co-branded card program benefits from high spend per cardholder and robust World of Hyatt membership growth, which has compounded at over 20% annually. He confirmed the current agreement extends towards the end of 2025 and that the company is actively working on the next phase of the partnership.

Daniel Politzer followed up on the Q4 yield guidance, asking why the strong close-in demand seen in Q3 might not repeat, and whether factors like the upcoming election were driving conservatism. He also asked about the key focus points for the upcoming investor event aboard the Sun Princess.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein responded that they provide their best estimate and always aim to outperform, acknowledging the election could be a factor but emphasizing the business remains strong. CFO David Bernstein added that with 99% of the year's ticket revenue on the books, there is little left to sell. Regarding the investor event, Weinstein said it will be an opportunity to update on progress since the SEA Change plan was announced and to showcase the new Sun Princess ship and the broader brand leadership team.

Asked about the company's M&A strategy, including evaluation criteria and leverage tolerance, and whether the guided ~35% revenue flow-through is a sustainable, normalized rate.

Answer

Executives confirmed their history of successful M&A and willingness to pursue deals to gain podium positions, even if it means temporarily exceeding leverage targets for the right deal. Regarding revenue flow-through, they stated it will vary quarterly due to seasonality and sports results and that they will not anchor to a specific number, prioritizing reinvestment for superior returns while remaining confident in achieving decent drop-through.

Daniel Politzer asked about Flutter's M&A evaluation criteria, its willingness to exceed leverage targets for the right deal, and whether the guided 35% ex-Illinois EBITDA flow-through is a normalized rate.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson stated that Flutter actively evaluates M&A globally and would be willing to go beyond its leverage target for a strategic acquisition if there is a clear path to deleveraging quickly. CFO Rob Coldrake clarified that they do not anchor to a specific flow-through percentage, as it varies with sports results, seasonality, and investment decisions, but they expect continued decent drop-through from incremental revenue.

Daniel Politzer asked about Flutter's M&A evaluation parameters, how it balances U.S. versus international opportunities, and if the 35% ex-Illinois flow-through is a good normalized rate to assume.

Answer

CEO Peter Jackson stated that Flutter has a strong track record of M&A and would go beyond its leverage target for the right deal if it could deleverage quickly. CFO Rob Coldrake clarified they do not anchor to a specific flow-through number, as it is impacted by seasonality, sports results, and investment choices, but they remain confident in achieving 'decent drop-through' on incremental revenue.

Daniel Politzer asked for the outlook on U.S. gross structural hold for the remainder of 2024 and inquired about the expected pacing of U.S. cost buckets like sales & marketing and G&A throughout the year.

Answer

CFO Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson stated that Q1 and Q4 are expected to be the high watermarks for structural hold due to the sports mix and parlay popularity. He noted that marketing investment also tends to be higher in Q1 and Q4 to align with sports seasons, while other operating expenses will be more consistent as the company builds capabilities to support growth.

Daniel Politzer from Wells Fargo sought clarity on the sustainability of the year-over-year gains in U.S. gross structural hold and asked about the expected pacing of growth across different U.S. cost buckets like sales & marketing and G&A for the rest of the year.

Answer

CFO Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson explained that the structural hold improvement is driven by product mix, particularly more parlays, and that Q1 and Q4 are typically the high points. He noted that marketing spend is also weighted to Q1 and Q4, while other OpEx like tech and G&A will grow more consistently throughout the year to support the expanding business.

Daniel Politzer of Wells Fargo inquired about the strategic initiatives driving the 12% ROIC target, such as changes in brand mix. He also asked about the company's pricing cushion relative to land-based vacations and its resilience in a potential consumer slowdown.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein explained that the ROIC target is supported by reallocating assets to higher-return brands, with Carnival Cruise Line growing to represent one-third of capacity. He described the pricing gap to land-based vacations as 'outrageous,' which provides a significant value proposition and cushion in a potential downturn. He added that the company's strong, sticky booking position and extensive homeporting strategy further enhance its resilience.