Daniel Sasson

Daniel Sasson followed up on the mentioned $3 billion in potential capital allocation, asking if this figure represents a target for revenue diversification or simply the sum of current opportunities. He also asked about potential positive catalysts for pulp prices and where the market might be underestimating a potential recovery, such as from logistics constraints.

Answer

Beto Abreu, an executive, clarified that Suzano has a target for value creation, not revenue diversification, and will only pursue opportunities with high returns. Leonardo Grimaldi, an executive, identified several potential positive catalysts for pulp prices: 1) commercial downtimes from high-cost European producers, 2) logistics disruptions creating opportunities for Suzano's differentiated network, 3) a potential downward revision of tariffs boosting demand, and 4) integrated Chinese producers becoming market buyers.

Daniel Sasson of Itaú BBA asked about the potential impact of a more protectionist U.S. administration on Suzano's growth strategy and M&A. He also inquired about the market impact of a major Chinese competitor's shutdown and Suzano's own inventory levels.

Answer

Executive Marcos Assumpcao stated that Suzano's long-term U.S. strategy is unchanged, viewing the market as robust and not expecting new pulp tariffs. Executive Leonardo Grimaldi confirmed the competitor's halt creates over 200,000 tons of monthly hardwood demand, viewing the situation as complex but likely temporary. He acknowledged Suzano's inventories are tight, creating short-term challenges.

Daniel Sasson asked about the current state of pulp demand from China following recent price drops and the strategic rationale behind the Pactiv and Lenzing acquisitions, including potential for fiber-to-fiber substitution and growth in dissolving pulp.

Answer

Leonardo Grimaldi, an executive, addressed the pulp market, stating that customers likely cannot skip more purchases due to low inventories and that the recent price adjustment was intended to reactivate the market. Executive Marcelo Bacci explained the Lenzing deal is a strategic, learning-focused entry into the textile market with no immediate plans for pulp mill conversion. He and executive Fabio Almeida Oliveira described the Pactiv acquisition as a move into a growing U.S. market with potential for operational improvements and future fiber-to-fiber substitution.

Daniel Sasson asked about the drivers behind declining pellet premiums and whether Vale is interested in renegotiating its gold streaming agreements to increase its exposure to gold, given higher prices.

Answer

Rogério Nogueira, EVP of Commercial & Development, attributed weak pellet premiums to lower demand in key markets caused by high steel exports from China. Shaun Usmar, CEO of Vale Base Metals Ltd, stated that the gold streaming deals are long-term financing contracts that will be honored, emphasizing that the focus is on optimizing overall production, from which Vale benefits from the residual gold.

Daniel Sasson requested more details on Vale's strategy for purchasing iron ore from third parties, particularly how it would be affected by the production ramp-up of the Vargem Grande and Capanema projects.

Answer

Executive Rogério Nogueira clarified that third-party ore is only purchased if it is value accretive. He expects volumes to be around 25 million tons, similar to last year, assuming current price levels. He emphasized that if market prices decrease, Vale will gradually cut non-profitable ore purchases to protect margins.

Daniel Sasson inquired about Vale's sales mix, the impact of increased quality concentration on inventory levels, and the company's 'value over volume' strategy. He also asked if the flat 2025 production guidance, despite new projects, implies lower third-party purchases and what the cost evolution might look like.

Answer

Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta explained that new projects like Vargem Grande and Capanema have a ramp-up period and provide more flexibility for the 'value over volume' strategy. Executive Rogério Nogueira added that the focus is on maximizing cash flow, which currently involves beneficiating more ore, leading to a short-term increase in inventories but ultimately higher value.

Daniel Sasson of Itaú BBA inquired about the status of the Samarco resell negotiations with the government and sought clarification on Vale's strategy for its high silica iron ore products in the second half of the year.

Answer

Executive Gustavo Duarte Pimenta stated that Vale remains optimistic about reaching a resolution on the Samarco agreement in the next couple of months. Executive Marcello Spinelli explained that the company has a structural high silica component in its portfolio post-Brumadinho and manages it based on market conditions, aiming for a 10% share in the portfolio but gradually reducing it to 0% by 2026-2027.

Daniel Sasson from Itaú BBA asked for an update on the milestones for the P15 expansion project in the mining segment. He also inquired about the key levers for value creation in the cement business, given low industry prices and capacity utilization.

Answer

Executive Marco Hebello reported that the P15 project is progressing, with core equipment contracted and delivery forecast for 2027. An executive, likely Martinez, explained that the cement strategy is focused on driving volume through its competitive logistics and distribution platform. He noted that while prices are low, CSN grew sales 8% in the quarter and sees significant opportunity for price recovery in the Brazilian market, alongside cost benefits from falling raw material prices.

Daniel Sasson inquired about CSN's confidence in achieving its year-end leverage target below 3x, a comfortable leverage level for 2026-2027 given higher CapEx, and the competitive outlook for steel prices amid Chinese import pressures.

Answer

Antonio Marco Rabello, an executive, affirmed the commitment to deleveraging, highlighting a transformational infrastructure project as key to reaching targets below 3x. He noted that investments are being managed cautiously due to high interest rates. Another executive detailed the steel market challenges, explaining that despite achieving a 3.2% price increase in Q1, the company faces a 27% import penetration rate and is focusing on operational excellence and product mix to maintain profitability.

Daniel Sasson inquired about CSN's deleveraging strategy, including the status of cement M&A, a potential energy business partner, and the sale of its Usiminas stake. He also asked about the steel segment's recovery, focusing on pricing power and the impact of new import quotas.

Answer

Executive Director Antonio Marco Rabello confirmed the company's commitment to deleveraging, highlighting strong operational cash flow from mining and cement as the primary driver. He noted that deals for an energy partner and a mining stake are targeted for 2024, while the cement acquisition is being structured carefully to not increase consolidated leverage. Executive Luis Martinez added that steel demand grew significantly, but government import measures remain 'innocuous' in intensity, limiting pricing power despite some reductions in discounts.

Daniel Sasson inquired about CSN's deleveraging strategy, including the status of potential asset sales in mining and energy, and the impact of a potential cement acquisition. He also asked for an update on the steel market, specifically regarding price increases and the effectiveness of new import quotas.

Answer

Executive Antonio Marco Rabello affirmed the company's commitment to deleveraging, stating that operational performance is the primary driver, supplemented by strategic partner transactions for mining and energy targeted for 2024. He noted the cement acquisition is being structured carefully to avoid impacting consolidated leverage. Executive Luis Martinez added that steel demand is recovering, but the government's import quotas remain 'innocuous' in their impact, though price adjustments are being made through reduced discounts.

Daniel Sasson from Itau BBA asked two follow-up questions: the potential size of the share buyback program that could start in 2026, and which specific countries in the SCAC region are under review for divestment.

Answer

CEO Jaime Muguiro stated it was too early to specify an amount for the 2026 share buyback but confirmed it would be part of a progressive shareholder return program, noting a $500 million program is already approved by shareholders. He declined to name specific countries for divestment in the SCAC region due to ongoing negotiations but expects transactions to occur between October 2025 and late 2026.

Daniel Sasson followed up on capital allocation, asking about the flexibility to revisit previously approved projects and the criteria for approving new ones versus executing share buybacks. He also asked for an outlook on the Brazilian market if no effective trade defense measures are implemented.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck stated that critical competitiveness projects like mining will proceed, but the company is actively debating future capital allocation, with share buybacks being a strong alternative. He expressed frustration with the Brazilian government's inaction on trade defense and said that if nothing changes, Gerdau would have to consider measures like hibernating production lines or further reducing fixed costs. He also noted Gerdau is positioning itself robustly in the rebar market.

Daniel Sasson requested details on the BRL 6 billion CapEx guidance for 2025, asking what it includes (such as energy assets), the expected spending curve, and the outlook for 2026. He also inquired about the new hot coil rolled strip project's expected shipment volume and ramp-up curve for the year.

Answer

CFO Rafael Japur clarified that the BRL 6 billion CapEx for 2025 will be spent more evenly throughout the year compared to prior years and includes approximately BRL 400 million for Gerdau's own solar energy projects. CEO Gustavo Werneck added that the new hot coil mill is projected to ship 250,000 tonnes in its first year, primarily to existing clients, as part of a strategy to shift from semi-finished exports to higher-value products.

Daniel Sasson asked for more details on the cost and headcount reduction efforts in the Brazil operation, including the timing of their financial impact. He also sought a qualitative comparison of sustainable EBITDA margins between the U.S. and Brazil operations.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck stated that the company is actively working to make the Brazil operation more competitive, with a goal of bringing its margins closer to the higher levels seen in North America. He explained this involves optimizing assets like the Cosigua mill and reducing exposure to low-margin exports. CFO Rafael Japur added that cost reduction efforts have upfront investments and take time to flow through the P&L, but the improved domestic sales mix in Q1 already had a positive impact on profitability.

Daniel Sasson of Itau BBA requested details on CSN's deleveraging plan to reach a sub-3x leverage ratio, asking about the key drivers and the flexibility to postpone CapEx. He also asked for a comparison of the market environments for flat steel versus long steel in Brazil.

Answer

Luis Martinez, Executive, described the flat steel market as strong, driven by automotive and white goods, while the long steel market is more challenging due to intense competition and price pressure. Antonio Marco Rabello, Executive, explained that the primary deleveraging driver is improved operational results, with 2025 EBITDA projected to be higher than 2024. He confirmed the <3x leverage target, noting that while capital recycling projects like 'CSN Builder' can provide liquidity, the company also has flexibility to adjust the timing of investments like the greenfield cement projects.

Daniel Sasson requested more detail on CSN's deleveraging plans, including the drivers for the sub-3x target and the flexibility to postpone CapEx if needed. He also asked for a comparison of the market environment for flat steel versus long steel in Brazil.

Answer

Luis Martinez, an executive, explained that the flat steel market is performing well, driven by automotive and construction, while the long steel market is more challenging due to multiple players and a fight for market share. Antonio Marco Rabello, an executive, detailed the deleveraging plan, emphasizing that it is primarily driven by structural operational improvements. He confirmed the guidance of reaching below 3x leverage, supported by strong operations and potential liquidity from projects like 'CSN Builder', while maintaining flexibility on non-essential CapEx.