Daniel Tricarico • Scotiabank

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President and Chief Operating Officer Charles Young stated the wildfires had no material impact on guidance, as only two homes were lost and the SoCal market already operates at very high occupancy. Chief Executive Officer Dallas Tanner added that while they will continue to opportunistically recycle capital, any decision to sell in California is based on a total return model that weighs strong rent growth prospects against disposition values.

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CEO Dallas Tanner confirmed they are actively expanding, citing new operations in San Antonio and Nashville. However, he emphasized that a primary focus is to 'double down' and increase scale in their existing high-growth Sunbelt and Southeast markets. This strategy aims to drive greater operational efficiencies and underwriting conviction, though gradual expansion into new, strategic markets will continue over time.

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CFO Timothy Martin reported a constructive trend, with sequential move-in rates up mid-teens from the seasonal low, a better performance than in 2024. CEO Christopher Marr added that the April-end occupancy of 89.9% represented a 90-basis-point gap compared to the prior year.

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President and CEO Christopher Marr explained the partner's need for a liquidity event from a closed-end fund drove the timing. He confirmed there are no other imminent JV buyouts but stated that CubeSmart expects "a little bit more juice" in NOI from the young portfolio in 2026 as the assets fully stabilize. Marr also noted the transaction's 2025 yield is projected to be in the mid-to-high 5% range, around 5.75%.

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President and CEO Christopher Marr attributed the company's resilience to its diverse customer base and wide range of use cases, rather than a single factor, though he acknowledged the importance of the sticky existing customer base. He reported that the move-in rate was down 11% in Q3 and improved to down 9.4% in the last two weeks of October, partly due to tougher comps in the prior year.

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CFO Christopher Lau confirmed the financing plan is unchanged, with two securitizations to be repaid and refinanced with unsecured bonds this year, which will make the balance sheet 100% unencumbered. CEO Bryan Smith clarified that the tariff impact would likely not be seen until late Q3 2025, as much of the year's pricing is locked, and hesitated to speculate on 2026 due to market volatility.

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CFO Chris Lau detailed the plan to repay two securitizations in 2025, likely refinanced with two new unsecured bond offerings, which will make the balance sheet 100% unencumbered. He broke down the $0.09 FFO dilution from financing costs into $0.02 from growth financing, $0.04 from the recent portfolio acquisition, and $0.03 from refinancing headwinds. CEO Bryan Smith stated that no major strategic changes are planned, emphasizing a continued focus on the core business, innovation, and the resident experience.

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COO Bryan Smith attributed the strong performance in the Midwest to the high quality of AMH's assets and a lack of similar supply in those markets, stating he expects the good performance to continue. Regarding development yields, he explained the Q3 figure was influenced by timing and mix, but the full-year expectation remains in the high 5s, with similar performance anticipated for 2025 deliveries. CFO Chris Lau added that the recent portfolio acquisition provides a welcome opportunity to grow in hard-to-penetrate Midwestern markets like Indianapolis.

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H. Boyle explained that while April showed strong move-in volumes, the move-in rate was down 8%, keeping the year-to-date average around -5% and in line with guidance. He confirmed demand is stabilizing. Joseph Russell added that while institutional capital remains interested in storage, transaction volumes have been light, though PSA is confident in its ability to source deals.

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Tim Argo, EVP & COO, confirmed that lease-over-lease rates are net of concessions and that easier comps from 2024 contribute to their confidence. Brad Hill, CEO, added that they feel good about current lease-up dates, prioritizing rent performance over lease-up speed, and noted that rents and yields at these properties are outperforming expectations.

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Tim Argo, EVP and Chief Strategy Officer, clarified that all quoted lease-over-lease rates are net of concessions. He stated that concessions are generally stable at around one month free portfolio-wide, though higher in supply-heavy submarkets like downtown Austin. For future supply, he projected a 15-20% decline in deliveries for 2025, followed by a more significant 30-40% drop in 2026, which would bring completions below the historical average of 3.5% of inventory.

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Tim Argo, EVP and Chief Operating Officer, responded that while Q4 would see moderating pressure, he expects normal seasonality to return in spring 2025 with strengthening new lease rates as supply moderates. He quantified the earn-in for 2025 as slightly negative, in the range of 20 to 30 basis points, based on the full-year 2024 blended lease-over-lease expectations.

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COO Michael Manelis confirmed that the company's base case guidance for the Los Angeles portfolio assumes approximately 3% same-store revenue growth for 2025. This is based on momentum seen in the fourth quarter and assumes continued marginal improvement throughout the year.

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