Daniela Haigian

Daniela Haigian asked about the deceleration of variably-adjusted EBITDA margin in Q4, its long-term outlook, and whether the growth pace supports incremental margin expansion. She also inquired about related party transactions, specifically if Carvana sells loans to related parties or if related parties originate loans for Carvana.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia clarified that revenue changes significantly impacted the margin calculation, noting that EBITDA dollars per unit were relatively flat year-over-year in Q4. He reiterated the clear path to 13.5% EBITDA margin through fixed cost leverage and fundamental gains. CFO Mark Jenkins firmly stated that Carvana does not sell loans to related parties and has not done so from 2017 through 2025, calling recent short reports inaccurate and confirming all related party transactions are disclosed.

Daniela Haigian asked about Carvana's competitive strategy against new entrants like Amazon, the impact on return on ad spend, and the biggest gating factor for near-term growth. She also inquired about plans to expand production capacity beyond the 3 million unit target and the associated capital requirements.

Answer

Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer, stated Carvana focuses on delivering the best customer experience and improving every business line, rather than specific competitors. He highlighted that the vast majority of the market is served by traditional retailers with different economics, making Carvana's scalable, capital-intensive model unique. He identified the sum of effort across the complex business as the primary growth constraint. Regarding capacity beyond 3 million units, he noted the large opportunity but deemed it premature to provide specific guidance beyond current goals.

Daniela Haigian asked about competition from new entrants like Amazon and its impact on Carvana's ad spend return, the biggest gating factor in Carvana's near-term growth curve, and plans for expanding production capacity beyond the 3 million unit target, including associated capital requirements.

Answer

Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer, stated Carvana focuses on delivering the best customer experience and improving every line item, rather than specific competitors, highlighting Carvana's structural advantage over traditional retailers. He identified the biggest gating factor as the 'sum of effort' across the complex business. He discussed ADESA integration sites for enhanced retail/wholesale capabilities. Regarding goals beyond 3 million units, he deemed it premature to discuss specific guidance, but acknowledged the large opportunity.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about the progress of conversations with credit rating agencies to improve Carvana's rating and questioned what the biggest near-term gating factors are for unit growth.

Answer

CFO Mark Jenkins responded that delivering strong financial metrics, such as their net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.8x and interest coverage above 2x, is the most important factor for improving their credit profile. CEO Ernie Garcia identified the entire operational chain as a factor for growth, with reconditioning being the most intensive part, but noted they have real estate capacity for 3 million units, mitigating a major historical bottleneck.

Daniela Haigian of Morgan Stanley inquired about the sustainability of Carvana's high incremental adjusted EBITDA margin and questioned if the company sees opportunities to expand its Total Addressable Market (TAM) beyond used cars, similar to autonomous fleet management partnerships in the industry.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia affirmed that the strong margin reflects business leverage and aligns with their long-term goal of selling 3 million units with a 13.5% EBITDA margin. Regarding TAM expansion, Garcia stated that while they see many opportunities, their primary focus remains on executing and improving the core used car retail business.

Daniela Haigian of Morgan Stanley inquired about the sustainability of the quarter's high incremental adjusted EBITDA margin and asked about the potential for Carvana's Total Addressable Market (TAM) to expand beyond used cars, citing the company's reconditioning and logistics infrastructure.

Answer

CEO Ernie Garcia explained that while the incremental margin was strong, the company's primary focus remains on its long-term goals of selling 3 million units annually with a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. Regarding TAM expansion, Garcia acknowledged seeing many opportunities but stressed that the company is staying focused on its core mission of improving the customer experience and efficiency in the used car market.

Daniela Haigian asked for commentary on the drivers behind the strong sequential increase in gain on sale of loans, particularly across Carvana's various monetization channels.

Answer

CFO Mark Jenkins explained that the strength in finance GPU and gain on sale is driven by continuous fundamental gains. These gains come from two main areas: improving the credit platform's sophistication in scoring and pricing, and lowering the cost of funds, partly by bringing new buyers to the platform. While wider interest rate spreads were a factor year-over-year, he stressed that the primary driver is the team's ongoing work to optimize the lending and monetization systems.

Daniela Haigian asked about changes in consumer behavior due to affordability pressures, specifically in the finance business and after-sales retention for older model year vehicles. She also inquired about Penske Automotive Group's strategy evolution in response to the increasing market share of Chinese OEMs in EU and other international markets.

Answer

Richard Shearing, President of North American Operations, noted an increase in third-party financing for after-sales repair orders and a focus on retaining out-of-warranty customers through flexible pricing. Roger Penske, Chair and CEO, highlighted pressures from tariffs and the need for less equipped vehicles or ICE vehicles priced similarly to BEVs. Anthony Faccione, VP and Corporate Controller, emphasized the need for OEMs to increase leasing penetration. Randall Seymore, President of International Operations, explained the strategy for Chinese OEMs involves utilizing existing Sytner Select stores to retail brands like Chery, Geely, and BYD, aiming to understand the brands and build relationships.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about changes in consumer behavior due to affordability pressures, specifically impacting the finance business and after-sales retention for older vehicles. She also inquired about Penske Automotive Group's evolving strategy regarding the influx and changing market shares of Chinese OEMs in EU and other international markets.

Answer

Richard Shearing, President of North American Operations, noted an increase in third-party financing for after-sales repairs and efforts to offer alternative parts/pricing. Roger S. Penske, Chair and CEO, highlighted tariff pressures on German OEMs, the need for less equipped vehicles, and the expectation for BEV pricing to align with ICE vehicles. Anthony Faccione, VP and Corporate Controller, emphasized the importance of leasing. Randall Seymore, President of International Operations, explained that Penske is utilizing existing Sytner Select locations to retail Chinese brands like Chery, Geely, and BYD to understand the market and build relationships.

Daniela Haigian questioned the strategy for used vehicle sourcing, asking if there's an opportunity in older vehicles, and inquired about the capacity and growth potential within the parts and service business.

Answer

Chair and CEO Roger Penske firmly stated the company will maintain its focus on 1-4 year old used vehicles, citing better profitability and lower brand risk. EVP Rich Shearing confirmed they have existing capacity in the service business and are focused on hiring more technicians to increase utilization before adding facilities, noting they grew technician headcount by 94 in Q1.

Daniela Haigian asked about Lithia's capabilities in servicing advanced sensor suites and EVs for autonomous driving, given the industry's inflection point. She also inquired about any adjustments to Driveway Finance Corporation's (DFC) underwriting standards in response to rising auto credit delinquencies in prime and sub-prime segments.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, explained that proprietary technology in advanced ADAS and EVs drives customers back to dealerships for service, benefiting Lithia. He anticipates higher breakage rates will support mid-single-digit after-sales growth for the next 5-10 years, with Lithia differentiating through convenience and transparency. Chuck Lietz, Senior Vice President of Driveway Finance, highlighted DFC's consistent improvement in credit quality over four years, with increased average FICO and decreased payment-to-income and LTV, resulting in a 36 basis point decrease in 31-plus delinquency trends year-over-year, bucking market trends.

Daniela Haigian asked about Lithia & Driveway's capabilities in servicing advanced sensor suites and EVs for autonomous driving, given the industry's inflection point. She also inquired about adjustments to Driveway Finance Corporation's (DFC) underwriting standards and any changes in consumer credit behavior in 2026, in light of rising delinquencies in the broader auto credit market.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, noted that proprietary technology in advanced vehicles drives customers back to dealerships for service, benefiting Lithia. He suggested this technology could lead to higher breakage rates, supporting mid-single-digit after-sales growth for years. Lithia's differentiation lies in convenience and optionality, like in-home service. Chuck Lietz, SVP of Finance, highlighted DFC's consistent credit quality improvement over four years (increased FICO, declined PITI and LTV), maintaining disciplined underwriting since 2021. He reported DFC's year-over-year delinquency trends are down 36 basis points, bucking market trends due to its "top of funnel" credit selection advantage.

Daniela Haigian asked about forward demand, specifically how Lithia views pricing on new model year vehicles and consumer demand heading into 2026, given the passing of peak tariff fears and OEMs revising up their guidances. She also sought clarification on the 10% sales tracking in October.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, clarified that the 10% October tracking was for used vehicle volume, not overall sales. He believes the impact of peak tariff fears is largely over, and manufacturers are assessing long-term product cycles. DeBoer emphasized that less than a quarter of Lithia's profitability comes from new cars, with 61% derived from after-sales. He noted that new car pricing is influenced by manufacturer incentives and geographic mix, and that Lithia's role as a new car retailer allows for some market share flexibility.

Daniela Marina Haigian asked for commentary on forward demand, specifically regarding new model year vehicle pricing and consumer demand expectations for 2026, in light of easing tariff fears and revised OEM guidances.

Answer

Bryan DeBoer, President and CEO, clarified that October's used vehicle volume was trending up 10%. He stated that the company is through most of the tariff impact, expecting market stabilization for manufacturers. DeBoer emphasized that less than a quarter of the company's profitability comes from new cars, with 61% derived from after-sales, and that new car sales are largely dictated by the marketplace, manufacturer incentives, and geographic base.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about used car availability, the mix across CPO, core, and value segments, and competition from online retailers. She also inquired about the M&A environment and the impact of policy uncertainty on deal flow.

Answer

President & CEO Bryan DeBoer highlighted strong growth in the value auto segment (vehicles over 9 years old), up 50% YoY, and noted that sourcing over two-thirds of vehicles from consumers provides a GPU advantage. On M&A, he stated the company expects to achieve the low end of its $2-4 billion annual acquired revenue target as seller expectations normalize.

Daniela Haigian asked about the parts and service business, specifically focusing on capacity, technician availability, and how the company plans to continue growing the segment.

Answer

President and CEO Bryan DeBoer responded that significant capacity exists, with current service stall utilization below 50%, allowing for growth through extended hours or additional shifts. He noted that technician staffing is strong as the company 'grows its own.' The key growth driver is a mindset shift at the store level to actively pursue both warranty and customer-pay work simultaneously, thereby increasing technician productivity and overall throughput.

Daniela Haigian asked about AutoNation's perspective on affordability pressures, consumer credit availability, and sensitivity to monthly payments. She also inquired about changes in consumer behavior in after-sales and expected mix shifts or strategy evolution in the used market, especially with returning off-lease volumes.

Answer

CEO Michael Manley acknowledged significant growth in monthly payments and anticipated some relief in charged APR later in 2026. He expects the new car market to decline 2-5% due to affordability but sees pent-up demand stabilizing the used market, potentially shifting to lower price points. In after-sales, Manley noted increased consumer price sensitivity, particularly for older vehicles, but AutoNation maintains margins through competitive pricing and service. He highlighted strong performance in $40,000+ used vehicles but underperformance in the sub-$20,000 range, indicating a focus on leveraging scale to acquire more inventory in the sub-$30,000 segment.

Daniela Haigian asked about affordability pressures, consumer credit availability, and consumer sensitivity to monthly payments, specifically if there's been any change in consumer behavior in the after-sales business regarding willingness to pay for repairs. She also inquired about potential mix shifts or strategy evolution in the used market, particularly with returning off-lease volumes, and opportunities for more competitive acquisition.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley noted significant compound growth in monthly payments driven by average transaction prices and APRs, with some APR relief expected in late 2026. He anticipates OEMs will offer more affordable models, leading to a projected 2-5% decline in the new car market for 2026, while the used market remains relatively stable. In after-sales, he observed no major behavioral changes but increased price sensitivity, especially for older vehicles, requiring competitive pricing and service. For the used market, Mike Manley highlighted strong performance in $40,000+ vehicles but underperformance in the sub-$20,000 range. He indicated a focus on leveraging AutoNation's scale and infrastructure to acquire more competitively in lower price bands, particularly sub-$30,000 vehicles, and emphasized the strength of new car retailer trade-ins as a sourcing channel.

Daniela Haigian asked about forward demand, new model year vehicle pricing post-tariff fears, and the outlook for 2026. She also questioned the strategy for older used cars, competition from online pure-play retailers, and opportunities for consolidation in the used car market, given sourcing challenges.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley stated that OEMs have gained clarity on product plans and supply chains, with new model year pricing generally in line with expectations, though decontenting and value engineering are occurring. He noted impacts on dealer incentives and expressed satisfaction with the industry's navigation of recent turbulence, but deemed it too early to forecast 2026 total inventory. For used cars, Manley acknowledged continued competition and upward pressure on wholesale prices, but highlighted AutoNation's strong sourcing strategy, including trade-ins. He indicated a focus on growth in higher-priced vehicles, with potential to expand into lower-priced segments. The company is holding elevated used inventory in Q4 to improve turn rates, accepting a temporary depreciation impact, and sees significant consolidation opportunities due to market fragmentation.

Daniela Haigian asked about forward demand, specifically how AutoNation is seeing pricing on new model year vehicles given OEMs revising up guidances and the impact of decontenting, and the outlook for 2026. She also inquired about the strategy around older used cars, competition from online pure-play retailers, and opportunities for growth and consolidation in the fragmented used car market.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley stated that new model year vehicle pricing appears broadly in line with normal changeovers, but noted ongoing option decontenting, value engineering, and impacts on dealer margins from reduced incentives. He acknowledged the higher bar for Q4 year-over-year comps and stated it's too early to call 2026 total inventory. Regarding used cars, Mike Manley confirmed continued competition and upward pressure on wholesale prices, but highlighted AutoNation's strong sourcing strategy (trade-ins, etc.). He discussed the potential to lean into lower-priced vehicles for growth and the strategy of holding elevated used inventory to improve turn rates, despite temporary depreciation pressure. He expressed bullishness on consolidation opportunities due to market fragmentation.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about the capacity and top-line growth outlook for the parts and service segment over the next few years, considering vehicle affordability. She also inquired about the competitive landscape in the used vehicle market.

Answer

CEO Michael Manley identified affordability as a key focus, noting that pent-up demand and a robust after-sales market provide significant future opportunities. CFO Thomas Szlosek confirmed that the company has ample physical capacity for service growth. Regarding used vehicles, Manley asserted that the market is large enough for all players to grow and highlighted AutoNation's unique advantage in leveraging its franchise brands to sell certified pre-owned vehicles, which builds customer confidence.

Daniela Haigian asked about the age mix of AutoNation's used vehicle inventory and whether there was an opportunity to focus more on older vehicles to meet affordability-driven demand. She also inquired about the current state of after-sales capacity and the potential for future growth.

Answer

CEO Mike Manley confirmed that demand for vehicles under $20,000 remains strong and is a focus area, noting they intentionally increased used inventory in Q1. On after-sales, he stated that while they have plenty of physical capacity (service bays), the key constraint is technician headcount, which they are actively growing. He sees significant growth opportunity by better penetrating the 7-year-plus vehicle park, which requires more technicians and tailored service offerings.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about Asbury Automotive Group's assumptions regarding consumer affordability and credit availability for 2026, and how these factors, along with tight supply, would influence used vehicle margins and volumes. She also inquired about the company's EV outlook for the year, specifically whether current inventory levels are adequately right-sized following the deceleration in EV sales.

Answer

COO Dan Clara reiterated the strategy of prioritizing gross profit over volume in used vehicles, focusing on direct purchases and trade-ins. He anticipates opportunities in the second half of 2026 with increased lease returns to potentially boost volume while maintaining gross profit discipline, aiming to reduce the average used car cost. Regarding EVs, Dan Clara stated that overall inventory is right-sized, with some regional exceptions, and noted a significant drop in EV sales as a percentage of total sales from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025, a trend expected to persist into 2026.

Daniela Haigian asked for specifics on how CarMax plans to redefine its digital platform to drive a more effective selling experience, its impact on the operating cost structure, and early indicators of progress. She also inquired about the strategy for reducing COGS and the progress of regional reconditioning centers.

Answer

David McCreight, Interim President and CEO, stated the focus is on streamlining the online shopping experience to make it easier and more conversion-focused, with iterative changes expected soon. Enrique Mayor-Mora, EVP and CFO, highlighted ongoing COGS initiatives like a new parts selection tool and confirmed progress with five regional reconditioning centers, expecting them to drive efficiency and logistics savings.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley inquired about forward demand, specifically whether Group 1 Automotive is observing any decontenting or new vehicle pricing changes beyond normal hikes, especially given revised OEM guidances post-tariff fears. She also asked about any recent shifts in consumer behavior or auto credit trends, particularly concerning higher credit quality segments, amidst broader market headlines about consumer risk.

Answer

President and CEO Daryl Kenningham stated that Group 1 Automotive has not seen new vehicle pricing changes in excess of normal hikes, with OEMs generally absorbing most tariff impacts over a longer period. SVP Pete DeLongchamps added that strong captive lenders provide an advantage through leasing and subvened rates. Regarding auto credit, DeLongchamps reported no change in consumer behavior, noting increased penetration rates and that market headlines primarily concern the deep subprime segment, where Group 1 does not operate. Lenders continue to show strong appetite for car loans.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley inquired about forward demand, specifically whether Group 1 Automotive is observing any decontenting or new vehicle pricing changes beyond normal hikes, especially given revised OEM guidances post-tariff fears. She also asked about any recent shifts in consumer behavior or auto credit trends, particularly concerning higher credit quality segments, amidst broader market headlines about consumer risk.

Answer

President and CEO Daryl Kenningham stated that Group 1 Automotive has not seen new vehicle pricing changes in excess of normal hikes, with OEMs generally absorbing most tariff impacts over a longer period. SVP Pete DeLongchamps added that strong captive lenders provide an advantage through leasing and subvened rates. Regarding auto credit, DeLongchamps reported no change in consumer behavior, noting increased penetration rates and that market headlines primarily concern the deep subprime segment, where Group 1 does not operate. Lenders continue to show strong appetite for car loans.

Daniela Haigian from Morgan Stanley asked about the key drivers and risks for the parts and service business over the next one to three years, and how Group 1 views competition from online used car retailers.

Answer

CEO Daryl Kenningham stated that future aftersales growth depends on capturing a larger share of the market for vehicles older than four years through competitive pricing and targeted marketing using first-party data. CFO Daniel McHenry added that older vehicles generate higher repair order values. Regarding competition, Kenningham said Group 1 learns from online retailers and sees significant opportunity to grow its own used business digitally within its existing footprint.

Daniela Haigian asked about the efficiencies seen from the cluster marketing initiative and the key learnings from the U.K. branding effort. She also questioned if the current environment and policy uncertainty have shifted the company's capital allocation strategy or impacted the M&A pipeline.

Answer

CEO Daryl Kenningham explained that it's still early for the marketing initiative, but the goal is to leverage in-house data for proactive, local customer management. On capital allocation, he stated that some discretionary capital projects have been deferred by about six months and spending has been reviewed, but nothing has been canceled. He added that policy uncertainty has not yet materially impacted the M&A environment.

Daniela Haigian of Morgan Stanley asked if EchoPark might pivot to selling older used vehicles to address affordability concerns, especially if tariffs tighten the supply of newer models.

Answer

President Jeff Dyke acknowledged that while they sold older vehicles during the COVID period and have the capability to do so again, they prefer to avoid it. He explained that selling older cars adds complexity to reconditioning and operations, which runs counter to the streamlined EchoPark model. He stated they can currently source enough 1-4 year old vehicles for their existing 17 stores.