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    Darko Mihelic

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets

    Darko Mihelic is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, specializing in Canadian financial services with a primary focus on major banks. He covers leading institutions including Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Manulife Financial, EQB Inc., Sun Life Financial, The Toronto-Dominion Bank, and Bank of Nova Scotia, with performance metrics showing a success rate of 46.15% and an average return of -2.82% on his recommendations, though some calls such as CIBC yielded notable individual returns above 50%. Mihelic began his financial research career at Cormark Securities before joining RBC Capital Markets in Toronto, where he has become a prominent voice on Canadian banking sector trends. He holds FINRA registration and relevant securities licenses, underpinning his recognized expertise in the industry.

    Darko Mihelic's questions to TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets sought to understand the specific triggers for a potential release of the $600 million credit reserve, asking if outcomes like an unchanged USMCA or tariffs matching European levels would be sufficient.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Ajai Bambawale confirmed that was the correct framework. A release would be considered if tariffs are lower than assumed, while higher tariffs would require a larger reserve. He emphasized that if credit migration occurs as anticipated, the existing reserve will be utilized, and he expects impaired PCLs to rise gradually from current levels.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets sought to clarify the conditions under which the $600 million performing reserve for trade uncertainty would be released, asking if outcomes like the USMCA being unchanged would trigger a release.

    Answer

    Ajai Bambawale, Chief Risk Officer, confirmed that was the correct way to view it. If tariffs are lower than the bank's assumptions, reserves would be reassessed for a potential release. He also noted that if the credit migration occurs as modeled, the reserves will be drawn down to cover it, and he expects impaired PCLs to rise gradually as a result.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets questioned the drivers of the performing credit reserve build, noting it seemed small relative to negative shifts in GDP and housing forecasts, and asked for a better definition of the 'migration risk' assessed for tariff-sensitive loans.

    Answer

    CRO Ajai Bambawale explained the $500M reserve build was a combination of updated macro forecasts and a judgmental overlay, and that the bank feels well-reserved. CFO Kelvin Tran noted immigration policy constrains unemployment projections. Ajai Bambawale clarified 'migration' refers to assessing the potential credit rating downgrade of individual borrowers within exposed industries.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to TORONTO DOMINION BANK (TD) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Darko Mihelic questioned the sustainability of the high 500 basis points of operating leverage in Canadian P&C, suggesting it might indicate excessive short-term expense cuts that could require future reinvestment. He asked for the long-term operating leverage target for the business.

    Answer

    Raymond Chun, Group Head of Canadian Personal Banking, explained the strong leverage is driven by sustainable productivity gains, such as optimizing the staff mix in branches from service to advisory roles in response to lower transaction volumes, while still investing in digital and risk. CEO Bharat Masrani added that strong revenue momentum is a key factor and that while there's no specific target, the goal is to continue delivering good positive operating leverage.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE /CAN/ (CM) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE /CAN/ (CM) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets requested an update on CIBC's Imperial Service strategy, asking about adviser hiring, productivity, and its overall contribution to the wealth management business.

    Answer

    CEO Victor Dodig and Hratch Panossian, Group Head of Personal and Business Banking, described Imperial Service as a core driver of the mass affluent strategy with record-high client satisfaction. Panossian stated they are 'just getting started,' with ongoing investments in adviser growth, productivity tools using AI, and digitization. He highlighted a significant, untapped opportunity to move more of CIBC's existing clients into the Imperial Service offer, which drives a more than 50% increase in managed funds in the first year.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE /CAN/ (CM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Darko Mihelic requested more detail on the U.S. portfolio reshaping, specifically the timeline for the commercial real estate runoff and its impact on NIM and loan growth. He also asked about the proportion of syndicated loans and changes to origination.

    Answer

    Shawn Beber, head of the U.S. Region, indicated the CRE headwind could last a couple more quarters, with overall loan growth remaining modest and NIMs stable in the near term. He clarified that the origination model is unchanged, with CIBC as lead or sole bank on over 75% of its loans, and that infrastructure builds are focused on client experience and regulatory compliance.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets asked for the magnitude of the client deselection program in International Banking and whether the decline in investment-grade commercial loans signaled a strategic shift.

    Answer

    Francisco Aristeguieta, Group Head of International Banking, explained that the client deselection process is largely complete and that 2026 will be a 'pivot to growth' year. He clarified the loan mix change was not a shift to non-investment grade but a disciplined effort to improve returns and deepen wallet share, supported by new global transaction banking capabilities.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic questioned the drivers of Scotiabank's Canadian asset growth, noting strong mortgage growth but weakness elsewhere relative to peers. He also asked about specific strategies to improve the mix of demand deposits versus term deposits, where the bank has historically lagged.

    Answer

    Aris Bogdaneris (Canadian Banking) attributed the loan growth trends to market dynamics, stating the bank is not chasing volume and remains disciplined on margins. He detailed a multi-pronged strategy to grow core deposits, including frontline incentives, marketing, digital product improvements, and leveraging the Mortgage+ bundle to capture day-to-day accounts. Scott Thomson (CEO) added that improving the business mix in Canada is a key priority and that the mortgage growth reflects a large renewal cohort from 2022.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic asked about the drivers of Canadian loan growth, noting the divergence between strong mortgage growth and weakness in other categories. He also questioned the strategy to improve the mix of demand deposits versus term deposits.

    Answer

    Aris Bogdaneris, Head of Canadian Banking, attributed strong mortgage growth to high renewal retention from a large upcoming cohort, while noting weaker demand in other lending categories was market-driven, not a strategic pivot. He detailed an end-to-end strategy to grow core deposits through frontline incentives, marketing, and product enhancements. Scott Thomson, CEO, added that the overall business mix is improving, citing strong growth in cards and small business over the last eight quarters.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic questioned the size of the Stage 2 provision build, asking why the bank didn't build a larger reserve given the uncertainty, perhaps by applying a more pessimistic scenario weighting.

    Answer

    Chief Risk Officer Philip Thomas explained that the bank was limited by accounting rules to what was known as of January 31st. The build of just under $100 million reflected modest tariff assumptions. He noted that 95% of this build was Stage 2 and a more significant adjustment would be made in the quarter that tariffs are finalized and become certain.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA (BNS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Darko Mihelic asked Francisco Aristeguieta about the progress of client deselection in International Banking and the potential for future revenue pressure from further dispositions.

    Answer

    Francisco Aristeguieta, Head of International Banking, explained that the strategy is driven by profitability and returns, which involves both targeting high-value clients and improving efficiency. He stated that revenue growth in the 6-7% range is sustainable, supported by strong expense control. He confirmed the repositioning is not complete and they will continue to redeploy capital from underperforming assets if required returns are not achievable.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to SUN LIFE FINANCIAL (SLF) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to SUN LIFE FINANCIAL (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets asked if key metrics like CSM and AUM trends signal slower future EPS growth for Sun Life relative to peers, and whether this would require increased share buyback activity.

    Answer

    President & CEO Kevin Strain disagreed with the premise of slowing growth, stating the company is on track to meet its medium-term objectives, including 10% EPS growth. He highlighted strong momentum in Asia, Canada, and SLC, and pointed to robust year-to-date growth in sales and flows. He affirmed that the company's strong capital position provides flexibility for both buybacks and growth initiatives.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to SUN LIFE FINANCIAL (SLF) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets asked for a high-level perspective on whether slower CSM growth and AUM trends relative to peers signal slower future EPS growth for Sun Life, and if this would require more share buybacks.

    Answer

    President & CEO Kevin Strain disagreed with the premise, stating the company is on track to meet its medium-term objectives, including 10%+ EPS growth. He highlighted strong momentum in Asia, Canada, and SLC Management, and noted the business mix, with its large group and asset management components, means CSM is not the only key driver. He pointed to strong year-to-date growth in sales and new business CSM and reaffirmed the company's commitment to its active buyback program, supported by a strong capital position.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to SUN LIFE FINANCIAL (SLF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Darko Mihelic sought to reconfirm the USD 100 million underlying earnings target for the dental business in 2025. He also asked if the 14% stop-loss price increases were leading to customer losses.

    Answer

    Daniel Fishbein (executive) confirmed the USD 100 million dental earnings target for 2025 remains in place. He stated that despite the price increases, the stop-loss book of business grew by about 5% as of January 1, which, while smaller than in recent years, was a pleasing result given the responsible pricing approach.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ (BMO) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic asked for a description of BMO's exposure to tariff-sensitive industries and questioned why this detail was not included in the investor presentation.

    Answer

    CRO Piyush Agrawal explained that the portfolio is well-diversified. He noted that higher-risk sectors like agriculture and auto manufacturing represent about 6% of the portfolio, but the higher-risk individual files within those sectors constitute only about 1% of total exposure. He identified manufacturing as the largest component of this risk, affecting clients in both Canada and the U.S.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ (BMO) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets asked for a description of BMO's exposure to tariff-related industries and questioned why this detail was not included in the presentation deck.

    Answer

    CRO Piyush Agrawal explained that the bank's portfolio is well-diversified. He noted that higher-risk sectors like agriculture, auto manufacturing, and lumber constitute about 6% of the portfolio, but the truly higher-risk individual files within those sectors represent only about 1% of total exposure. The manufacturing sector was identified as the most impacted due to its low margins and supply chain sensitivity.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to BANK OF MONTREAL /CAN/ (BMO) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Darko Mihelic was in the queue to ask a question but indicated that his query had already been addressed by previous analysts.

    Answer

    No answer was provided as the analyst's question was previously asked and answered during the call.

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    Darko Mihelic's questions to GREAT-WEST LIFECO (GWLIF) leadership

    Darko Mihelic's questions to GREAT-WEST LIFECO (GWLIF) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Darko Mihelic of RBC Capital Markets questioned the persistent negative organic movement in the Contractual Service Margin (CSM), particularly in Canada, and asked for guidance on how to model its trajectory given recent assumption changes.

    Answer

    CFO Jon Nielsen addressed the question, explaining that the Q3 assumption changes strengthened the CSM in Europe and CRS but resulted in lower CSM and subsequent amortization in Canada. He stated that the company feels good about its overall assumptions post-reset, noting positive trends in most businesses and that the minor noise in Canada in Q4 does not give them pause.

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