David Duley

David Duley asked for an estimate of the increased probe intensity between HBM3 and HBM4, and whether a similar increase is expected for HBM5. He also inquired about FormFactor's combined market share with the other two HBM players, beyond their market leader position.

Answer

CEO Mike Slessor explained that stack height is a primary driver of test intensity, suggesting a 20%-25% increase on a like-for-like, same stack height basis between HBM generations. He did not quantify the combined market share with the other two HBM players but stated FormFactor has a 'low enough incumbent share that there's a real opportunity' and is the 'number two source' from an overall DRAM standpoint at those two players, driving strong share in differentiated applications.

David Duley asked for an estimate of the increased probe intensity between HBM3 and HBM4, and whether a similar increase is expected when transitioning to HBM5. He also inquired about FormFactor's combined market share with the other two HBM players, excluding the market leader, to understand the potential opportunity.

Answer

CEO Mike Slessor explained that stack height is a key driver of test intensity, and a good rule of thumb for test intensity increase between HBM generations (on a like-for-like stack height basis) is approximately 20%-25%. He stated that the company has not quantified this specific market share but confirmed that FormFactor has low enough incumbent share at these two customers to present a significant opportunity, especially in differentiated applications like high parallelism, high-speed test insertions where they are driving strong share at all three manufacturers. He also confirmed FormFactor is the number two source at the other two HBM players from an overall DRAM standpoint.

David Duley from Steelhead Securities asked for the outlook on hyperscaler and GPU customer revenue in the second half of the year. He also questioned the rationale for acquiring the Texas facility given the flat Q3 revenue outlook and asked if the HBM ramp could slow down.

Answer

CEO Michael Slessor noted a multi-million dollar contribution from a hyperscaler in Q2 and expects to generate GPU-related revenue in the second half as they move into pilot production. He explained the Texas facility purchase is a long-term strategic move to secure capacity for expected growth, calling it an opportunistic buy. Regarding HBM, he reiterated that while the long-term trend is strong growth, quarter-to-quarter volatility is expected.

David Duley from Steelhead Securities asked about the qualification status for advanced probe cards with a major GPU manufacturer and whether the co-packaged optics opportunity is the primary entry point with this customer.

Answer

CEO Mike Slessor clarified they have a multifaceted relationship with the customer, with a strong position in their switch business and a rapidly growing CPO opportunity transitioning from lab to production. The GPU probe card qualification is progressing well at the customer's foundry, with hopes for a positive update in 2H. He described it as a "3-headed opportunity" spanning switches, CPO, and core GPUs.

David Duley asked for clarification on the HBM outlook with a second major customer, sought more detail on progress with hyperscaler customers, inquired about trends in the networking business, and asked if Q1 is expected to be the revenue trough for the year.

Answer

CEO Mike Slessor confirmed a second customer is now a significant contributor to both HBM3 and HBM4 revenue. He noted strong engagement with hyperscalers on custom ASICs, with initial shipments in Q1. The networking business remains a growing part of Foundry & Logic. Finally, he stated that the current view is that Q1 will be the revenue bottom for the year, similar to the 2024 pattern.

David Duley from Steelhead Securities asked if the Q3 HBM pause was linked to a customer's technology migration (e.g., HBM3 to 3E). He also asked if strong customer demand signals for HBM suggest significant revenue growth for FormFactor in 2025.

Answer

CEO Mike Slessor clarified the Q3 HBM dip was a predictable digestion period and not tied to a specific technology transition, highlighting that such lumpiness is normal. He agreed it is a 'reasonable assumption' that FormFactor's HBM business will grow in 2025, driven by customers adding capacity and launching new HBM generations, contingent on continued hyperscaler AI investment.

David Duley asked for details on the three 10% customers mentioned, including their segments and how much they exceeded the 10% threshold. He also inquired about the overall 2026 TAM growth, assuming 30%, and if SoC TAM would grow faster than memory TAM, and if Teradyne's share gains would lead to growth exceeding 30%.

Answer

CEO Greg Smith stated that two 10% customers were specifiers (one mobile, one compute) and one was a purchasing customer across segments, with all being roughly 10%. He clarified that the 20%-40% TAM growth range for 2026 is not a mean of 30%, emphasizing second-half uncertainty. Greg Smith agreed that SoC TAM is expected to grow faster than memory TAM. He cautioned that while Teradyne is positioned for share gains, if the compute TAM (where Teradyne's share is lower) grows significantly, it could dilute overall share despite segment-specific improvements.

David Duley sought clarification on whether any standalone GPU business wins were included in the Q3 results or Q4 guidance. He also asked for an update on the size of the SoC TAM, particularly the high-performance computing piece, and the main drivers behind the HBM ramp in Q4.

Answer

CEO Greg Smith confirmed that no revenue from standalone GPU business was included in Q3 results or Q4 guidance. Regarding the HBM ramp, Mr. Smith explained it's roughly half new test insertion (singulated stack test) and half additional capacity (stack die wafer level test), both increasing. He declined to provide an updated SoC TAM size due to the dynamic market action between Q4 and Q1, which will significantly impact the ultimate market size, especially for high-performance compute.

David Duley sought clarification on the Q4 AI strength from networking, hyperscalers, and HBM, specifically asking if any business won on standalone GPUs was included in the guidance. He also requested an update on the size of the SoC TAM and its major components, such as high-performance computing. Finally, he asked about the HBM ramp into Q4, inquiring if it was mainly driven by HBM ramping up, new test insertions, or other factors.

Answer

CEO Greg Smith confirmed that no standalone GPU business was included in Q3 revenue or Q4 guidance. For the HBM ramp, Mr. Smith stated it was likely a 50/50 split between new test insertions (singulated stack test) and additional capacity (stack die wafer level test), all driven by HBM4. He declined to provide an update on the SoC TAM due to dynamic market action between Q4 and Q1, opting to stick with the overall guidance.

David Duley of Steelhead Securities asked about the GPU test opportunity, inquiring about the timeline for a combined electrical-optical tester and the reason for a potential earlier entry point. He also requested an explanation of the new HBM test insertion point at the stack level.

Answer

President & CEO Greg Smith explained that Teradyne already delivers electro-optical solutions and will increasingly integrate Quantify Photonics technology. The earlier GPU opportunity exists because customers desire supply chain resilience, and Teradyne's success will depend on proving its superior throughput and reliability. He then detailed the new HBM test insertion: a post-dicing test of individual HBM stacks to screen for defects before they are assembled into a costly AI accelerator, improving final yield.

David Duley asked for clarification on the HBM stacked die test win, questioning if Teradyne now serves all three major HBM suppliers. He also asked about the revenue timing and market size for the robotic FOP handling solution.

Answer

CEO Greg Smith directly refuted the assumption, stating that Teradyne does not have all three major HBM suppliers for stacked die test. For the robotics solution, he confirmed it generated revenue in Q1, is in production at customer sites, and represents a single-digit millions revenue opportunity in 2025 that is expected to grow as part of a broader automation value proposition.

David Duley of Steelhead Securities asked for more details on the Semi Lab acquisition, specifically its roadmap for advanced nodes and potential synergies. He also inquired about the outlook for HBM spending and the latest developments in panel lithography.

Answer

CEO Michael Plisinski detailed that Semi Lab's technology offers opportunities in advanced gate structures and materials characterization, with synergies expected from combining sensor capabilities with Onto's AI modeling. He projected HBM spending to be roughly flat in the second half of the year but was hesitant to forecast for 2026 due to tariff uncertainty. On panel lithography, he confirmed two stepper shipments are planned for the current quarter and noted the company is preparing its process control portfolio for the industry's shift to square substrates.

David Duley asked for clarification on which business segments were expected to be down in the Q2 guidance, confirmed the 2.5D tool refers to CoWoS inspection, and requested an update on the lithography business.

Answer

CEO Michael Plisinski clarified that for Q2, advanced nodes revenue is guided to be down moderately, while specialty devices and advanced packaging are expected to be roughly flat, with some potential impact from lithography shipment timing. On lithography, he noted strong R&D interest for next-generation panel packaging, with volume applications likely two years away.

David Duley asked for the expected revenue contribution from new products in 2025 and requested more details on the lithography business, particularly regarding glass panel adoption.

Answer

CEO Michael Plisinski stated that new products would provide 'incremental' revenue in 2025, with a more meaningful impact in 2026. For lithography, he noted a significant increase in customer engagement for panel processing, describing the market as in its 'infancy, but definitely growing,' with potential orders ramping for delivery in early 2026.

David Duley inquired about Onto's participation in the NAND upgrade cycle, the seemingly conservative outlook on HBM given strong industry drivers, the benefit from OSAT capacity expansion, and lead times for HBM inspection tools.

Answer

CEO Michael Plisinski noted that while NAND is growing for Onto in 2025, it's from a small base and not a major driver. He explained the cautious HBM stance is due to a lack of firm orders, despite models showing a need for expansion. He confirmed Onto benefits from OSAT expansions, expecting similar process control intensity. Lead times are currently around three months, and he affirmed the company has the capacity to meet a demand surge.

David Duley of Steelhead Securities asked about the market opportunity for the Eclipse handler, specifically in the GPU and ASIC space, and whether a competitor's product cycle was creating an opening. He also requested a more detailed breakdown of the reported 3% increase in utilization rates by geography or customer type.

Answer

CEO Luis Müller confirmed that Cohu has evaluation systems for the Eclipse handler, primarily at fabless customers, and hopes to report material progress in the GPU space within a quarter or two. He attributed the opportunity to customer demand for a 'future-proof' platform. Regarding utilization, Müller provided a breakdown by customer type, stating that IDM utilization increased five points sequentially, while OSAT utilization increased one point.

David Duley asked for details on which market segments are driving the pickup in recurring orders and whether the demand is broad-based. He also requested more information on the design win for power probe cards in Silicon Carbide (SiC) applications and the new handler business win in China's automotive sector.

Answer

CEO Luis Müller stated that the recurring order increase is predominantly and fairly concentrated within the mobile segment. Regarding the SiC probe card win, he described it as a ~$2 million annual opportunity per customer for a patented high-voltage testing technology. For the China handler win, Müller noted it was with a fabless automotive customer and part of a larger collection of Q1 design wins totaling $6.5 million in expected 2025 orders with a potential annual revenue of $18 million.

David Duley asked for more details on the recent Diamondx design win, an outlook on when the company might see a turnaround in year-over-year revenue, and the expected gross margin profile at higher revenue levels.

Answer

President and CEO Luis Müller explained the Diamondx win was secured due to a superior cost of test for a customer's portfolio of power semiconductors and microcontrollers. Müller noted that forecasting a market turn is difficult, but key analog markets likely face another two quarters of inventory digestion. Executive Jeffrey Jones provided a gross margin model, projecting 44-45% at ~$100M in quarterly revenue, rising to approximately 46.5% at the $130M revenue level.

David Duley inquired about the recent $35 million in Advanced Packaging lithography orders, asking what technology shifts are driving this renewed demand. He also asked about the specific end markets in China affected by tariff-related shipment delays, potential mitigation strategies, and for a recap of which semiconductor segments are expected to grow in 2025.

Answer

CEO William Miller explained the lithography orders are primarily capacity buys from an IDM and OSATs, driven by AI and high-performance computing, which will help the Advanced Packaging business nearly double in 2025. CFO John Kiernan clarified that the Q2 shipment delays impact both scientific and semiconductor customers in China. He noted that while short-term mitigation is limited as products ship from the U.S., customers are seeking tariff exemptions. Kiernan also confirmed that growth in gate-all-around and Advanced Packaging is expected to offset or more than offset declines in the China business for 2025.

Dave Duley asked for the revenue outlook for the first half versus the second half of 2025, the expected trend for HBM business, whether NSA revenue would be incremental, and how gross margins are expected to progress through the year.

Answer

CFO John Kiernan and CEO William Miller provided market color instead of a quantitative H1/H2 split, noting semi could be flat-to-up. Miller stated HBM revenue is expected to be steady and that NSA revenue is over 80% incremental. Kiernan projected full-year 2025 gross margins around 42%, down from 43.3% in 2024 due to product mix headwinds.

David Duley inquired about the breakdown of the $50 million in wet processing orders, the timing of the announcement, the expected magnitude of the China revenue decline, and progress on evaluation systems.

Answer

CEO William Miller explained the $50 million in wet processing orders came from a leading foundry, HBM manufacturers, and OSATs, and the announcement reflects increased visibility into 2025. On China, he suggested revenue would eventually return to a 'normalized' rate of around 20% over time. He also detailed progress on evaluation systems, noting strong pull for nanosecond annealing and IBD300 tools, with potential follow-on orders in late 2025 or 2026.

David Duley asked for the specific utilization rate percentages in Taiwan and China and the company's IC unit volume assumptions for 2025. He also inquired about the target entry point for the HBM opportunity, specifically if it was HBM4, and asked about any direct or indirect impacts from tariffs on the company's operations and costs.

Answer

CFO Lester Wong stated that utilization in China is in the mid-80s and just touching 80% in Taiwan, with an expectation of over 10% semi revenue growth for calendar 2025. President and CEO Fusen Chen confirmed that HBM4 is the target for market entry. Wong added that since their equipment is made in Singapore, there is no direct tariff impact on shipping to China, but there are indirect impacts from customer uncertainty, which is causing conservative behavior across the supply chain.

David Duley sought details on the number of customers using thermo-compression bonding (TCB) tools, a revenue breakdown for the advanced packaging forecast, the timing for Vertical Wire (VFO) revenue, and key success metrics for the dual-head HBM tool.

Answer

CFO Lester Wong estimated 8-10 customers are using or evaluating TCB bonders. CEO Fusen Chen targeted $75-$100 million in TCB revenue for the year and projected initial VFO revenue under $20 million in fiscal 2025, ramping significantly in 2026. For HBM, Chen highlighted process leadership and throughput as key differentiators.

David Duley of Steelhead Securities sought details on the recent TCB win, asking if the application is for chip-on-wafer or wafer-on-substrate and whether it targets mobile or high-performance computing. He also asked for signs of the general semi recovery beyond utilization rates and inquired about the gross margin outlook for fiscal 2025.

Answer

CEO Fusen Chen confirmed the TCB win is for a fluxless, chip-to-wafer application for high-end products. CFO Lester Wong added that recovery signs include strong, sustained demand from China, with the rest of the world now catching up, and increased customer inquiries. He reiterated the corporate gross margin target of 50%, expecting expansion in fiscal 2025 driven by a richer product mix and cost reductions.

David Duley sought clarification on the full-year outlook for China's revenue percentage and asked about the breadth of the memory market recovery, specifically if it involved multiple customers and the DRAM/NAND split.

Answer

CFO James Coogan reiterated that while China revenue will fluctuate quarterly and is expected to be up in Q2, the full-year percentage will be lower than in 2024. CEO Russell Low clarified that the recent memory uptick was entirely from DRAM, driven by multiple customers, partly due to HBM production taking up other capacity. He stated that NAND demand remains muted as customers focus on technology transitions to higher layer counts rather than adding wafer starts.

David Duley of Steelhead Securities requested specific silicon carbide revenue percentages for Q4 and FY2024, asked if SiC would contribute to the expected H2 '25 recovery, and sought to confirm if other mature segments would see a steeper decline.

Answer

EVP and CFO James Coogan provided the figures: silicon carbide was 36% of systems revenue in Q4 and 41% for the full year 2024. Coogan and President and CEO Russell Low confirmed that while SiC revenue will be down year-over-year, it will be more resilient than the general mature and silicon IGBT power segments. They reiterated that non-China geographies remain relatively resilient but declined to provide specific second-half SiC geographic breakdowns.

David Duley asked for the expected percentage of revenue from China in Q4 and H1 2025, the outlook for silicon carbide in China during that period, and an assessment of equipment utilization rates.

Answer

CFO James Coogan projected that China revenue, which was 71% in Q3, would normalize back towards the 40-60% range in Q4 and that dollar values from China would likely decline in H1 2025. CEO Russell Low added that he expects SiC revenue in China to be down in H1 2025 due to a digestion and process maturation phase. Coogan also noted that overall tool utilization rates are down, as reflected in lower CS&I revenue.