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David Hayes

David Hayes

Research Analyst at Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

Stoke Bruerne, GB

David Hayes is Managing Director at Jefferies, specializing in equity research with a focus on the consumer goods sector and leading coverage of major companies such as Unilever and Nestlé. As of 2025, he covers 31 stocks and maintains a performance record with approximately 63% of his recommendations being profitable and an average return per transaction of 3.70%. Hayes assumed his current role at Jefferies in October 2023 after serving as Managing Director at Societe Generale from 2018 to 2023, and has also held senior analyst positions at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Nomura, and Lehman Brothers, with earlier experience in corporate finance and management consulting at British Telecommunications and Coba Group. He is registered with Jefferies International Limited in the UK and holds applicable professional credentials for equity research in the European financial sector.

David Hayes's questions to UNILEVER (UL) leadership

Question · Q3 2025

David Hayes questioned the strategy behind current margin levels, asking if more investment is needed in markets like India and Indonesia to stimulate volume growth, and the justification for returning to 2019 margin levels. He also sought details on the 'eight power brands' focus in One Unilever markets, its impact on AMP spend for other brands, and potential growth headwinds.

Answer

CEO Fernando Fernandez explained that power brands represent ~80% of revenue in One Unilever markets, with a goal to reach 90-95%, clarifying that local jewels would still be supported through other demand drivers to reduce portfolio complexity. CFO Srinivas Phatak detailed multiple levers for margin expansion, including volume growth, mix benefits (25-30 bps), supply chain efficiencies (beating inflation by ~1%), overhead productivity, and capital deployment towards savings. He emphasized improved margin profile post-ice cream demerger and a focus on hard currency earnings growth.

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Question · H1 2025

David Hayes of Jefferies asked if pricing levels are too high in any markets, creating a risk to volumes, and requested a quantification of the tax leakage from the ice cream spin-off.

Answer

CEO Fernando Fernandez acknowledged that pricing went 'too far' in Brazil laundry and on TRESemmé in the U.S., but these have been corrected to protect volumes. He emphasized that the company resets pricing when competitors do not follow. He declined to quantify the tax leakage from the spin-off at this time, stating more details would be provided later.

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Question · Q2 2024

David Hayes questioned the balance between hitting short-term margin targets versus increasing investment for long-term growth, and asked about the level of net productivity savings achieved in the first half.

Answer

CEO Hein M. Schumacher emphasized a focus on underlying operating profit growth rather than a specific margin target, allowing flexibility to invest behind strong brand plans. CFO Fernando Fernandez clarified that the new €800 million productivity plan is in motion but only 5-10% has been implemented so far, with most benefits expected in 2025 and beyond.

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David Hayes's questions to Haleon (HLN) leadership

Question · H1 2025

David Hayes asked for a quantification of the growth drag from nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) in Q2 and for the full year. He also questioned the strategic focus on this category, given its partnership structure, and asked about the full-year reported margin outlook considering all factors.

Answer

CEO Brian McNamara described the complex three-way partnership for the U.S. nicotine business. CFO Dawn Allen quantified the drag from Smoker's Health, stating it had a 60 basis point negative impact on total group growth in Q2. Regarding the full-year margin, she confirmed the high single-digit organic operating profit growth guidance and stated the company is comfortable with current consensus.

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Question · H1 2025

David Hayes from Jefferies asked for quantification of the drag from nicotine replacement therapy on Q2 results and the full-year guidance. He also inquired about the complex partnership structure for the U.S. business and the rationale for retaining it. Finally, he asked if the overall guidance implies a flattish reported margin for the full year.

Answer

CEO Brian McNamara described the U.S. nicotine business as a complicated three-way venture. CFO Dawn Allen quantified the drag, stating Smoker's Health had a 60 basis point negative impact on total group growth in Q2. Regarding margins, Allen confirmed the guidance for high single-digit operating profit growth, driven by strong gross margin and cost control, and stated the company is comfortable with the current consensus, implying margin expansion, not flat performance.

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Question · H1 2025

David Hayes of Jefferies asked for quantification of the growth drag from the nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) business on Q2 results and the full-year guidance. He also questioned the strategic rationale for retaining the complex U.S. NRT business. His second question sought clarity on whether the full-year guidance implies a flattish reported margin year-on-year after accounting for all factors.

Answer

CEO Brian McNamara acknowledged the complex three-way partnership structure of the U.S. nicotine business. CFO Dawn Allen quantified the drag from Smoker's Health, stating it negatively impacted total group growth by 60 basis points in Q2. Regarding margins, she indicated that the shape of H1 performance—strong gross margin, reinvestment in A&P, and cost control—is expected to continue in H2, supporting the high single-digit operating profit growth guidance and that current consensus estimates are comfortable.

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Question · Q2 2024

David Hayes asked if the contribution from the new Oral Care whitening range could be quantified to assess future comps. He also inquired about the shift to on-market share buybacks and whether there were one-off costs from the phenylephrine switch impacting U.S. margins.

Answer

CEO Brian McNamara positioned the whitening launch as part of a consistent annual innovation model, declining to quantify its specific impact. CFO Tobias Hestler explained the buyback strategy adds optionality and clarified that any write-offs from the phenylephrine switch were not material, with the main impact being lower sales volume in H1.

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