David Huang

David Huang asked about the reiterated guidance, specifically how to think about the Q4 number given the extra week in Q3 for INGREZZA ordering, and if seasonal dynamics or embedded conservatism should be considered.

Answer

Matt Abernethy, Chief Financial Officer, advised normalizing Q3 to a 13-week basis by removing the impact of the 14th week, which was almost a full week of impact primarily for INGREZZA. He suggested modeling Q4 with a sequential growth range of $15 to $20 million, consistent with historical trends. He also noted that pricing should remain consistent, with a 6% to 7% year-over-year decline in Q3 expected to continue in Q4.

David Huang asked about Neurocrine Biosciences' reiterated but not raised guidance, specifically the Q4 outlook, potential seasonal dynamics, and embedded conservatism, considering the extra ordering week in Q3 for INGREZZA.

Answer

Matt Abernethy, Chief Financial Officer, recommended normalizing Q3 to a 13-week basis and then considering a typical sequential growth range of $15 million-$20 million for Q4. He also noted that the year-over-year price decline of 6%-7% seen in Q3 should be consistent in Q4, with nothing abnormal on the pricing side.

David Huang of Deutsche Bank asked about the competitive implications of a competitor raising its guidance for its VMAT2 inhibitor and also inquired about the percentage of CAH patients who are regularly seen in clinics.

Answer

CEO Kyle Gano addressed the competitive question by focusing on INGREZZA's performance, highlighting its strong volume growth and market share gains in total prescriptions. On the CAH market, CCO Eric Benevich reiterated the estimate of over 20,000 prevalent patients in the U.S. and explained that a firm number is difficult to ascertain, as some patients are not managed by endocrinologists and the diagnosis code is not specific to classic CAH.

David Huang inquired about the expected next steps with the FDA and phase three program design for Elixerextant after the NT2 data release, and also asked for Q4 expectations for Vivitrol.

Answer

Richard Pops, CEO, stated that NT2 data is on track for November, which, combined with Vibrance I NT1 data, will inform the end-of-phase meeting with the FDA, with phase three expected to launch early next year. Todd Nichols, Chief Commercial Officer, noted that Vivitrol's Q4 expectations are based on strong Q3 alcohol dependence (AD) demand, emphasizing continued AD growth for the mature product.

Speaking for David Begleiter, David Huang from Deutsche Bank asked about concerns that a competitor might adopt the 'Linde playbook' following a management change and whether this could impact industry pricing.

Answer

CEO Sanjiv Lamba asserted that Linde's leadership is built on a decades-long culture and dense operational networks that cannot be easily duplicated. He emphasized that this network density is the key driver of margin improvement and pricing power. Without commenting on specific competitors, he stated that Linde will continue to act as the market leader.

On behalf of David Begleiter, David Huang asked about the significant headcount increase in recent years, its relation to clean hydrogen projects, and potential for cost reductions given that some projects are now on hold. He also asked if the Alberta project contributes to the FY2025 guidance.

Answer

Chairman, President and CEO Seifi Ghasemi clarified that the headcount increase was primarily for engineering on major projects and is largely capitalized, not directly impacting EPS. He noted that development costs are decreasing and SG&A is down year-over-year. He also confirmed that no significant income from the Alberta project is included in the fiscal 2025 guidance.