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    David Macgregor

    Research Analyst at Longbow Research

    David Macgregor is President and Senior Analyst at Longbow Research, specializing in the Consumer Cyclical and Industrials sectors with direct coverage of companies such as Polaris Industries, Floor & Decor Holdings, Pool Corporation, Carlisle Companies, and Beacon Roofing Supply. He holds a strong performance record, with a price target met ratio near 81% and an average return of about 5.7%, placing him among the top 47% of analysts tracked by performance ranking platforms. Macgregor began his career at Roulston Research Corp. as a Principal from 1995 to 2002 and has led research at Longbow since 2003. He is a CFA charterholder and seasoned equity analyst recognized for actionable investment recommendations and industry insight.

    David Macgregor's questions to TWIN DISC (TWIN) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to TWIN DISC (TWIN) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    David MacGregor of Longbow Research asked for details on the drivers of the strong $150.5M backlog, the growth strategy for the defense sector, and commercial synergies from recent acquisitions. He also inquired about a potential margin inflection point, the sustainability of ME&A spending, the fiscal 2026 outlook for the balance sheet and free cash flow, and whether the company would prioritize integration over new M&A.

    Answer

    CEO John Batten and CFO Jeff Knudson explained that backlog strength is broad-based, with significant contributions from defense, marine propulsion, and pleasure craft. Batten highlighted that defense growth is driven by both U.S. Navy programs and NATO land-based vehicles via the Katsa acquisition, with a focus on expanding capacity to meet demand. He confirmed the company is at a margin inflection point due to supply chain normalization, sourcing efficiencies, and product discipline. Knudson noted that current ME&A spending can support revenue well north of $400M and that the company aims to lower leverage to enable future bolt-on acquisitions, which can be pursued concurrently with integration efforts.

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    David Macgregor's questions to TWIN DISC (TWIN) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research inquired about current order patterns and backlog stability, asking if there were signs of cyclical pressure or deferrals. He also sought details on the company's ability to mitigate tariff impacts through pricing actions without hurting Q4 margins, the integration progress and synergy potential for the Kobelt and Katsa acquisitions, and specific examples of the operational efficiencies that drove gross margin improvement.

    Answer

    CEO John Batten stated that order rates are strengthening, particularly in marine workboat and government defense, with no significant cancellations, though he noted potential softness in the smaller pleasure craft segment due to tariffs. Executive Jeffrey Knutson explained that the company was proactive on pricing and sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts and does not expect a significant hit to Q4 margins. Batten expressed confidence in replicating their acquisition playbook with Katsa and Kobelt, highlighting opportunities in Kobelt's industrial brakes. Knutson detailed operational efficiency gains from factory Kaizen events, global sourcing, and design reviews for high-volume products like ARFF transmissions.

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    David Macgregor's questions to MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS (MLM) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS (MLM) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor inquired about the pricing of the 20 million tons of aggregates being acquired, asking if there is an opportunity for an ASP lift, and also asked about the potential impact of railroad mergers.

    Answer

    CEO C. Howard Nye suggested there is a 'value' opportunity with the acquired assets, implying potential for price improvement. Regarding rail mergers, he expressed confidence, noting Martin Marietta's position as the largest rail shipper of aggregates and its strong relationships with Class I railroads. He does not foresee any peril to the business from potential consolidation.

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    David Macgregor's questions to MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS (MLM) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research LLC asked about the M&A environment from a different angle, inquiring if there have been any changes in the permitting process that would improve the company's ability to execute reserves-oriented acquisitions.

    Answer

    Chair and CEO Ward Nye stated he does not see notable changes in the permitting process. He explained that while there is some federal oversight on air and water, the most significant barriers—zoning and land use permits—are 'decidedly local' at the city or county level. He believes these high local barriers will persist and play to Martin Marietta's strength in land use management. Nye described the company's strategy of acquiring adjacent land, which, once permitted over several years, removes setbacks on existing quarries and opens up new reserves, allowing them to 'win twice.'

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    David Macgregor's questions to MARTIN MARIETTA MATERIALS (MLM) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor sought clarification on the tonnage related to the narrowing acquisition price delta and then asked about the potential benefit of cement tariffs on the Dallas-Fort Worth market.

    Answer

    CEO C. Nye clarified the price delta applied to the Blue Water and Frei acquisitions and noted pricing in California is now largely aligned. Regarding tariffs, he explained that the DFW market is already strong and largely insulated from imports due to logistics. While tariffs would be a positive, the market's fundamental strength is driven by its robust economy, not import exposure.

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    David Macgregor's questions to INTERFACE (TILE) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to INTERFACE (TILE) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor of Longbow Research questioned if there was any sales pull-forward into Q2, the sustainability of market share gains, the size of the mid-market segment, the backlog conversion timeline, ROI timing for international automation, the net impact of tariffs, and future growth priorities.

    Answer

    CEO Laurel Hurd and CFO Bruce Hausmann confirmed they were not aware of any sales pull-forward. Hurd attributed market share gains to product innovation and expansion into the 'significantly bigger' mid-market price point. She noted automation benefits in Europe and Australia would begin in 2026. Hausmann stated most of the backlog will ship in 2025 and the Q2 tariff impact was neutral. Hurd outlined growth priorities as the Americas, Europe, and expansion in carpet tile and resilient flooring, stating they don't need an acquisition to meet growth targets.

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    David Macgregor's questions to INTERFACE (TILE) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David S. MacGregor asked about the timing of tariff impacts versus mitigation efforts, the reasons for the inventory increase, the expected benefits of the new Global Product Category Management role, the contribution of procurement to margins, and the current state of the 'return to office' demand driver.

    Answer

    CEO Laurel Hurd and CFO Bruce Hausmann stated they expect the timing of tariff costs and mitigation efforts to be well-aligned. Bruce Hausmann clarified the inventory increase was a typical seasonal build for a strong Q2, not a tariff-related pre-buy. Laurel Hurd described the new product management role as a long-term strategic investment to optimize innovation. She also highlighted that the globalized supply chain is already yielding benefits, such as rolling out automation globally. Both executives characterized the 'return to office' dynamic as being in the 'early innings,' creating beneficial churn and a 'flight to quality' in office space.

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    David Macgregor's questions to INTERFACE (TILE) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor from Longbow Research inquired about the substantial increase in the 2025 CapEx forecast, the key drivers for the guided gross margin improvement, the remaining SG&A leverage, and the rationale behind the flat interest expense guidance.

    Answer

    CFO Bruce Hausman explained the $45M CapEx for 2025 includes ongoing high-return automation projects and some timing shifts from 2024. CEO Laurel Hurd added these projects are increasing throughput. On gross margin, both executives pointed to multiple factors, with Hurd highlighting the positive mix from growing Nora sales. Regarding SG&A, they noted a continued focus on disciplined spending. Hausman clarified that interest expense is now more predictable as the company's debt is largely fixed-rate.

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    David Macgregor's questions to INTERFACE (TILE) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor questioned the increasing penetration of multi-product sales (carpet, LVT, nora) under the 'One Interface' strategy, nora's production capacity, the specific contributors to gross margin expansion, and the scalability of SG&A expenses.

    Answer

    CEO Laurel Hurd confirmed that multi-product wins are increasing, driven by the 'One Interface' sales team integration and compensation structure. She stated that nora capacity is sufficient for now due to recent automation investments. CFO Bruce Hausmann attributed the 158 basis point margin expansion to a mix of raw material deflation and higher fixed cost absorption. Laurel Hurd added that regional mix was also a benefit and that SG&A is managed through targeted investments in growth areas, like expanding the nora sales team, while maintaining overall efficiency.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Vulcan Materials (VMC) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to Vulcan Materials (VMC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor of Longbow Research inquired about how much of the 2-3 million tons lost to weather in Q2 could be recovered in Q3 and asked for more specific details on backlog growth.

    Answer

    Chair & CEO J. Thomas Hill explained that the weather-related volume catch-up would be spread throughout the second half, with some already seen in July's strong shipments. He confirmed that backlogs are up substantially in highways and non-residential, supporting the full-year guidance and providing a strong setup for 2026.

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    David Macgregor's questions to WHIRLPOOL CORP /DE/ (WHR) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to WHIRLPOOL CORP /DE/ (WHR) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor of Longbow Research asked for an estimate on the quantity of pre-loaded, tariff-free imported products in the U.S. and inquired about the promotional outlook for the second half of the year.

    Answer

    Marc Bitzer, Chairman & CEO, estimated there were easily 60 to 90 days of excess inventory from Asian imports as of May, which has created significant short-term disruption. He noted that while Whirlpool reduced its own promotional activity in Q2, the overall industry remained intense due to this inventory. He speculated that the promotional environment would likely be more muted going forward but refrained from giving a specific forecast.

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    David Macgregor's questions to WHIRLPOOL CORP /DE/ (WHR) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research questioned which product segments are most affected by tariff-impacted imports and asked about the growth of the direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel for the SDA business.

    Answer

    Marc Bitzer (executive) clarified that imports impact the entire product spectrum, from opening price points to mass premium, not just one segment. On the SDA business, he highlighted that the DTC channel has grown to represent about a quarter of the business, calling it an attractive model for building customer loyalty that augments, rather than replaces, traditional retail.

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    David Macgregor's questions to SMITH A O (AOS) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to SMITH A O (AOS) leadership • Q2 22025

    Question

    Joe Nolan, on behalf of David Macgregor at Longbow Research, asked about the directional trend of input costs other than steel for the second half of the year and inquired about the outlook for the water treatment business.

    Answer

    CFO Charles Lauber stated that other input costs are up slightly year-over-year but are expected to be ratable for the year without a significant increase in the back half. CEO Stephen Shafer noted the water treatment business is making good progress, with a focus on priority channels and integration work, and is now positioned to get back to growth after a reset period.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor from Longbow Research asked about the volume leverage in Workplace Furnishings excluding price/cost impacts, the potential for upside to the Kimball/Mexico synergy targets, and the expected pace of share repurchases for the year.

    Answer

    CFO Vincent Berger stated that incremental margins from volume in Workplace Furnishings are expected to be in the 35-40% range before investments. He also indicated that the company is leaning towards the high end of its $0.70-$0.80 EPS benefit range from synergies, with potential for further upside. Regarding share repurchases, he noted that decisions are made on a quarterly basis and depend on free cash flow deployment strategy.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor from Longbow Research questioned the level of volume leverage improvement in Workplace Furnishings, the potential for upside to synergy savings targets, and the outlook for the pace of share repurchases.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Vincent Berger stated that incremental margins with volume in Workplace Furnishings should be in the 35% to 40% range before investments. He signaled upside to the synergy savings, noting the company is leaning closer to the $0.80 end of the previously communicated $0.70-$0.80 EPS benefit range. Regarding share repurchases, Berger indicated that the pace is re-evaluated quarterly and is a function of free cash flow deployment, declining to provide a full-year forecast.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor from Longbow Research asked about the volume leverage in Workplace Furnishings net of price/cost pressures, the potential for upside to the projected savings from the Kimball acquisition and Mexico facility, and how to model share repurchase activity for the full year.

    Answer

    CFO Vincent Berger stated that incremental margins from volume in Workplace Furnishings should be in the 35% to 40% range before investments. He also signaled that the EPS benefit from the KII and Mexico initiatives is leaning toward the high end of the previously communicated $0.70 to $0.80 range, if not slightly more. Regarding share repurchases, he noted that the level of activity is a quarter-by-quarter decision based on free cash flow deployment.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor from Longbow Research asked about the expected volume leverage in Workplace Furnishings, the potential for upside to synergy savings targets from the Kimball and Mexico initiatives, and how to model full-year share repurchases.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Vincent Berger stated that incremental margins from volume in Workplace Furnishings should be in the 35-40% range before investments. He indicated the company is trending toward the high end of its $0.70-$0.80 EPS synergy savings target. Regarding buybacks, he noted that decisions are made on a quarter-by-quarter basis and depend on free cash flow deployment.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HNI (HNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor from Longbow Research asked about the volume leverage in Workplace Furnishings considering both synergies and price/cost pressures, the potential for upside to synergy savings estimates, and the outlook for full-year share repurchases.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Vincent Berger stated that incremental margins with volume are expected to be in the 35% to 40% range before investments. He also signaled upside to the KII and Mexico synergy savings, noting they are leaning toward the high end of the $0.70-$0.80 EPS benefit range. Regarding buybacks, Berger clarified that repurchase decisions are made quarterly and are not based on a fixed annual plan.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor of Longbow Research inquired about the expected timing for the realization of delayed C&I projects, whether the Tools Group can return to its long-term 4% growth target, and how the company plans to deploy its large cash balance, considering M&A, dividends, or buybacks.

    Answer

    Nicholas Pinchuk, Chairman & CEO, explained that C&I customers are adapting to the new environment and he expects projects to move forward, but could not provide a precise timeline. He affirmed his confidence in the Tools Group achieving its long-term growth targets. Regarding the cash balance, he stated that while they are always looking for a large, non-transformative acquisition, they are comfortable holding cash in an uncertain environment and are not currently contemplating special dividends or tenders.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Macgregor of Longbow Research asked about the timing for realizing delayed C&I projects, the achievability of the long-term 4% growth target for the Tools Group, and plans for deploying the company's significant cash balance.

    Answer

    CEO Nicholas Pinchuk stated that C&I project timing is hard to predict as customers accommodate the new environment. He reaffirmed confidence in the Tools Group's long-term growth potential. Regarding capital, he expressed comfort holding cash in an uncertain environment but confirmed the company is capable of a large acquisition if the right opportunity arises, with no immediate changes to the current strategy.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David S. MacGregor from Longbow Research inquired about U.S. truck-level sales comps, potential franchisee destocking, the cause of negative mix in the Tools Group, the company's promotional response to weaker demand, and the status of manufacturing backlogs.

    Answer

    CEO Nicholas Pinchuk stated that truck-level sales comps were roughly flat with sell-in, with no significant destocking observed. He attributed the negative mix in the Tools Group to strong sales of lower-margin diagnostics, noting that Tool Storage was the weakest category. Pinchuk affirmed that while promotions are active, the company avoids deep price cuts, as evidenced by strong gross margins. He also confirmed that the Tool Storage backlog has been largely liquidated due to expanded capacity and softer demand.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Speaking on behalf of David MacGregor, Joe Nolan asked about current order activity and backlog levels in the critical industries and torque tools businesses. He also inquired about the margin outlook for the C&I segment and the sell-in versus sell-through dynamics for the Tools Group during the quarter.

    Answer

    CEO Nicholas Pinchuk described order activity in critical industries as 'pretty good' with a solid backlog, noting that the customized kitting business 'went bananas' in the quarter. He highlighted that strong profitability in C&I and RS&I was driven by a favorable mix and broad-based RCI gains. He concluded by stating that sell-in versus sell-through for the Tools Group was 'about the same' in Q4.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Snap-on (SNA) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor asked for details on the Snap-on Franchisee Conference (SFC) order growth, the drivers of the Tools Group's gross margin improvement, the outlook for Q4, and franchisee attrition trends.

    Answer

    CEO Nicholas Pinchuk reported that SFC orders were flat year-over-year, a positive result given market uncertainty. CFO Aldo Pagliari and Pinchuk attributed the 100 bps gross margin gain in the Tools Group to lower material costs, RCI savings, factory efficiencies, and a favorable product mix. Pinchuk expressed confidence in the Tools Group's momentum for Q4 but did not provide specific guidance, and noted franchisee attrition remains stable.

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    David Macgregor's questions to TORO (TTC) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to TORO (TTC) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    In a follow-up, David Macgregor of Longbow Research asked about the competitive impact of the tariff environment on Toro and sought clarification on whether certain tariffs are cumulative or mutually exclusive.

    Answer

    Chairman, President & CEO Richard Olson stated that while Toro is similarly positioned to competitors on professional products, he believes the company has a solid competitive advantage on homeowner products due to its U.S. manufacturing focus and mitigation strategies in place since 2018. VP & CFO Angela Drake opined that the tariffs in question are likely mutually exclusive but emphasized the situation is highly dynamic and being monitored daily by an internal task force.

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    David Macgregor's questions to TORO (TTC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research questioned if strong Q4 Residential sales were pulled forward from fiscal 2025 and asked for the key drivers of the expected adjusted gross margin improvement in 2025 on flat revenue.

    Answer

    CEO Richard Olson stated there was no unusual pull-forward of sales in Q4, attributing the Q1 outlook to ongoing homeowner caution and high snow product inventory in the channel. Regarding fiscal 2025 margin expansion, Olson and CFO Angela Drake cited benefits from the AMP productivity initiative, cost management actions, and an expectedly favorable product mix in the second half of the year, including a recovery in snow product sales.

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    David Macgregor's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to Owens Corning (OC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David MacGregor's associate, Joe Nolan, asked for a high-level view on the puts and takes for the price-cost dynamic into the second half of the year.

    Answer

    CEO Brian Chambers reiterated the company's core strategy: a '1-2 punch' of driving value through innovation and brand to command premium pricing, while simultaneously focusing on operational excellence and cost optimization across the entire enterprise. He stated this long-term approach allows them to navigate short-term market choppiness effectively.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David MacGregor sought clarification on tariff mitigation plans and asked if Harley-Davidson's U.S.-centric manufacturing and sourcing could ultimately become a competitive advantage.

    Answer

    CEO Jochen Zeitz outlined a multi-pronged mitigation strategy: engaging with administrations, adjusting supply chains for both short and long-term impacts with a focus on China, controlling expenses, and selectively using pricing. He acknowledged that high tariffs on imported motorcycles could become a competitive advantage in the U.S. due to Harley's domestic manufacturing, but this could be offset if retaliatory tariffs are imposed in key export markets like Europe.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research asked about the quantifiable impact of weather on Q3 retail sales and the company's market share expectations for 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Jochen Zeitz confirmed that weather, particularly Hurricane Helene, had a significant negative impact on retail sales toward the end of September due to dealership closures. Regarding 2025 market share, he did not provide a specific forecast but expressed confidence that the strong product lineup, especially in Touring and CVO where the company has gained share, positions them well to defend their position.

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    David Macgregor's questions to HARLEY-DAVIDSON (HOG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor from Longbow Research asked for quantification of weather's impact on Q3 retail sales and for the company's market share outlook for 2025.

    Answer

    CEO Jochen Zeitz confirmed that weather, particularly a hurricane on the East Coast, negatively impacted retail in late September. He declined to provide a specific 2025 market share forecast but expressed confidence in defending their position, highlighting the significant market share gains achieved in the Touring segment this year due to product innovation.

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    David Macgregor's questions to CARLISLE COMPANIES (CSL) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to CARLISLE COMPANIES (CSL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David MacGregor from Longbow Research asked for an update on the CWT segment's high single-digit growth guidance, specifically regarding the residential market outlook, and requested commentary on the market dynamics between membrane and polyiso products.

    Answer

    CFO Kevin Zdimal provided a detailed market breakdown, reaffirming a flat to slightly down residential market for the year, with commercial reroofing remaining the primary growth driver. CEO D. Koch added that CWT growth will be supported by new products like UltraTouch, channel gains, and automation initiatives. Regarding products, Zdimal noted polyiso has been growing faster than membrane due to increased insulation content per job but did not provide a specific growth breakout.

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    David Macgregor's questions to CARLISLE COMPANIES (CSL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor asked for an update on the M&A market, including seller motivation, valuation multiples, and the deal pipeline. He also inquired about the strategic consequences of ongoing consolidation within the building products distribution channel.

    Answer

    CEO D. Koch reported that valuation multiples remain high but noted a slight uptick in the number of deals in the pipeline, ranging from small bolt-ons to larger opportunities. Regarding distribution consolidation, Koch acknowledged the trend and stated Carlisle is well-positioned due to its flexibility. He highlighted that direct-to-contractor sales have already grown to the mid-teens percentage of sales, and the company's strong logistics capabilities allow it to service customers directly while continuing to support its distribution partners.

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    David Macgregor's questions to CARLISLE COMPANIES (CSL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David MacGregor from Longbow Research asked for an assessment of the polyiso insulation market, particularly how it will absorb new capacity and the impact on pricing. He also requested an outlook for principal raw material inputs and a breakdown of the CWT segment's EBITDA decline between strategic investments and volume deleverage.

    Answer

    CEO Chris Koch expressed confidence in the market's ability to absorb new polyiso capacity, emphasizing Carlisle's strength as an integrated building envelope solutions provider. Regarding CWT's EBITDA, he attributed roughly one-third of the decline to residential market deterioration and two-thirds to strategic investments. VP of Investor Relations Mehul Patel detailed these investments, which include expanding the sales organization, marketing programs, R&D for new products, and IT system enhancements.

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    David Macgregor's questions to GARMIN (GRMN) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to GARMIN (GRMN) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor of Longbow Research asked for the drivers behind the 'lower product costs' cited in each segment, questioning if it was purely scale benefits or other structural changes. He also raised the obligatory question about the company's exposure to potential tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Clifton Pemble confirmed that lower costs are 'definitely the scale' benefits from higher production volumes and supply chain efficiencies, not structural changes. Regarding tariffs, he stated that while exposure exists, Garmin believes it is 'optimally positioned' to minimize potential impacts and that the situation is too fluid to build into current guidance.

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    David Macgregor's questions to POOL (POOL) leadership

    David Macgregor's questions to POOL (POOL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David S. MacGregor asked about the company's long-term plans for expanding its private label product offerings and the margin profile of these products. He also inquired about the expected level of technology spending in 2025 following the $20 million investment this year.

    Answer

    President and CEO Peter Arvan stated that private label is a key part of their strategy, focusing on chemicals and maintenance products rather than equipment. He highlighted that these brands are margin-accretive and offer a significant growth opportunity by leveraging their vast distribution network. Regarding technology, he does not anticipate a major change in the level of spending for 2025, viewing it as a necessary ongoing investment.

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