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    David Ocampo • Cormark Securities

    David Ocampo's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership

    David Ocampo's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo from Cormark Securities inquired about the feasibility of shifting contracted U.S. shipments to other markets, the company's strategy for servicing U.S. contracts if high tariffs persist, key milestones for the EAF ramp-up, and the financial impact of the 50% tariff.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia explained that current U.S. shipments are contracted and difficult to move, though Algoma is developing future domestic opportunities in shipbuilding and defense. He noted the viability of these contracts under high tariffs will be a central topic during the Q4 contract season. For the EAF, Garcia confirmed Unit 1 is in production, with Unit 2 construction to finish by year-end, maintaining a 200,000-ton production target for the calendar year. CFO Rajat Marwah clarified the 50% tariff's financial hit would not be a simple doubling of the 25% tariff's impact due to pricing variables.

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    David Ocampo's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo inquired about the sheet pricing discount in Canada versus the U.S., the potential to shift sales mix, the outlook for EBITDA given falling futures prices, and the expected quarterly cost of U.S. tariffs.

    Answer

    CEO Michael Garcia confirmed the Canadian sheet market price has settled at roughly a 25% discount to the U.S. due to oversupply and tariff uncertainty, making the company somewhat indifferent to where it sells sheet products. CFO Rajat Marwah acknowledged the challenging math for sheet profitability but noted that rising plate volumes, value-added products, and cost optimization efforts provide an offset. Marwah also confirmed the quarterly tariff impact in Q2 would be similar to the approximate $60 million run-rate seen in 2018.

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    David Ocampo's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Ocampo of Cormark Securities inquired about the operational and financial impact of a recent blast furnace outage, the company's ability to maintain profitability under a 25% U.S. tariff, and the pricing dynamics in the Canadian sheet market. He also asked for specifics on the EAF production ramp-up schedule and clarification on cost structures and customer contract terms.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah clarified the blast furnace outage was brief with no significant costs. He stated that at current CRU prices, Algoma is profitable on U.S. shipments despite tariffs, and the Canadian spot market discount could be 20-28%. He noted most Canadian sales are spot, while U.S. contracts are CRU-based, minimizing customer pushback. CEO Michael Garcia added that the EAF will produce over 200,000 tons in its first nine months, with a steep ramp in the second half of the year.

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    David Ocampo's questions to Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo from Cormark Securities asked for details on the timing and total expected proceeds from both insurance claims (property damage and lost production) and the Ontario government's carbon tax reimbursement program. He also sought clarification on the correct way to model the maximum share dilution from outstanding warrants.

    Answer

    CFO Rajat Marwah stated that the balance of the property damage insurance proceeds (totaling over $60 million) should be received by the March quarter. He expects over 50% recovery on the $120-$130 million business interruption claim, with funds arriving by March or potentially the June quarter. Regarding the carbon tax, he explained there is a two-year lag in receiving reimbursements. For dilution, Marwah clarified that at an $18 share price, the cashless settlement option results in only a one-third dilution from the warrants, not the full amount.

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    David Ocampo's questions to ATS Corp (ATS) leadership

    David Ocampo's questions to ATS Corp (ATS) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo of Cormark Securities questioned the potential to redeploy written-off EV-related inventory, the company's view on the impact of ingestible GLP-1 drugs, and whether high leverage puts large-scale M&A on hold.

    Answer

    CFO Ryan McLeod said no material benefit is expected from the written-off EV inventory. CEO Andrew Hider noted that while monitoring ingestible drugs, customers are still investing heavily in auto-injectors. Regarding M&A, Hider explained they continue to cultivate opportunities, and McLeod added that while the goal is to deleverage, they would consider financing alternatives for the right value-creating deal.

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    David Ocampo's questions to ATS Corp (ATS) leadership • Q4 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo from Cormark Securities questioned if written-off EV inventory could be redeployed, the potential impact of ingestible GLP-1 drugs on ATS's business, and whether large-scale M&A is paused given the company's leverage ratio.

    Answer

    CFO Ryan McLeod stated that no material benefit is expected from redeploying the written-down EV inventory. CEO Andrew Hider addressed the GLP-1 question by noting that customers are still heavily investing in auto-injector solutions, and ATS's capabilities in areas like pharmacy automation provide flexibility. Regarding M&A, Hider confirmed cultivation of the pipeline continues, and McLeod added that while the target leverage is 2-3x, they would consider financing alternatives for the right value-creating deal.

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    David Ocampo's questions to ATS Corp (ATS) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    David Ocampo from Cormark Securities Inc. sought clarification on whether the leverage reduction target assumes no collection from the disputed EV customer, the revenue ramp timeline for GLP-1 related projects, and the associated cash collection milestone structure.

    Answer

    Ryan McLeod, Chief Financial Officer, confirmed the leverage reduction forecast to the 2x-3x range excludes any collection from the disputed EV customer. He noted the revenue ramp for GLP-1 projects is slightly longer than the typical 1-2 quarter lag but not materially different. He also stated that cash collection milestones for these projects are consistent with standard terms, which are better than transportation but can still be lumpy due to program size.

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