David Paz

David Paz of Wolfe Research inquired about the 8 gigawatts of gas-driven availability, asking about the level of flexibility in the equipment delivery period. He specifically referenced "open slots" in the 2028-2030 period from a previous chart and asked how Entergy would fill those or if they would be pushed out if no new announcements were made this year, seeking clarity on the cadence.

Answer

Drew Marsh, Chairman and CEO, stated that Entergy fully expects to utilize the ordered turbines on their planned timeline, with customers eager to move them forward if possible. He emphasized that Entergy anticipates having contractual arrangements (ESAs) in place for these turbines. Marsh added that if, for some reason, ESAs are not in place when payments are due, Entergy would likely secure reimbursement agreements from customers, ensuring no financial problem, and reiterated the expectation to meet the current timeline for turbine utilization.

David Paz inquired about the flexibility in the equipment delivery period for the 8 gigawatts of gas-driven availability, particularly concerning 'open slots' in the 2028-2030 timeframe, and how the company plans to manage these if new announcements are not made.

Answer

Drew Marsh, Chairman and CEO, stated that the company fully expects to utilize the ordered turbines on their scheduled timeline, noting that customers would advance them if possible. He added that if contractual arrangements (ESAs) are not in place when payments for these turbines are due, the company anticipates securing reimbursement agreements from customers, mitigating any financial concerns.

David Paz sought confirmation that Duke Energy's confidence in reaching the top half (6-7%) EPS growth in 2028 reflects only minimum take provisions, ensuring this target would be met even if data centers do not fully materialize. He also asked about the potential impact of a new large load tariff in North Carolina on the 4.5 GW of already signed ESAs.

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sideris confirmed absolute confidence in achieving the 6-7% growth rate in 2028, based on minimum take contract provisions, regardless of whether data centers fully materialize. He also stated that existing tariffs apply to the 4.5 GW of signed ESAs, and any new tariffs would only apply to future agreements, with constructive discussions held with the North Carolina commission indicating no anticipated impacts on current contracts.

David Paz sought confirmation that Duke Energy's confidence in achieving the top half of its 5%-7% EPS growth rate by 2028 is based solely on minimum take contract provisions, implying this target would be met even if data centers do not fully materialize as expected. He also asked if a potential new large load tariff in North Carolina would impact the 4.5 GW of existing Electric Service Agreements (ESAs).

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sideris confirmed that Duke Energy is fully confident in reaching the top half of its 6%-7% growth rate in 2028, based on the minimum take contract provisions of the signed data center ESAs. He also stated that a potential new large load tariff in North Carolina would not impact the existing 4.5 GW of ESAs, as they are covered by currently approved tariffs, and the North Carolina Commission is supportive of Duke Energy's approach.

David Paz inquired about the pipeline for Duke Energy's large load projects, specifically asking for characterization of how many projects are in advanced discussions and likely to be signed within the next year. He also sought clarification on the durability of the upper half of the 5%-7% EPS growth rate into the 2030s.

Answer

Harry Sideris, President and CEO, described a very large and diverse pipeline of projects, focusing on credible hyperscalers and third-party developers. He noted that Duke Energy has signed 3 GW of Electric Service Agreements (ESAs) in the last six months and has a dedicated team working 24/7 to convert prospects into signed agreements, emphasizing the dynamic environment. Sideris confirmed that the assumption of the upper half of the 5%-7% growth being durable into the 2030s, driven by economic development projects and system investments, is accurate.

David Paz inquired about the pipeline for large load projects, specifically how much is in advanced discussions beyond the 3 gigawatts of signed ESAs, and sought clarification on the durability of the upper half of the 5-7% EPS growth into the 2030s.

Answer

Harry Sideris, President and CEO, described a large and diverse pipeline, focusing on credible hyperscalers and third-party developers, but did not quantify projects in advanced discussions due to the dynamic environment. He confirmed that the upper half of the 5-7% EPS growth is a good assumption for durability into the 2030s as economic development projects and system investments continue.

David Paz asked for a breakdown of the $5 billion increase in Ameren's 10-year capital plan pipeline, inquiring if it's backend loaded or concentrated in the 2026-2030 period. He also sought clarification on the breakdown of advanced data center discussions between Illinois and Missouri, and elaborated on regulatory and political engagement in Missouri regarding new large load and affordability, contrasting it with Illinois's wires-only business.

Answer

Michael Moehn, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, explained that the capital plan increase is due to multiple factors, including firming up generation (which is backend loaded), grid investments, and technology, with more details in February. Marty Lyons, Chairman, President, and CEO, clarified that the 2 gigawatts in advanced data center discussions are in Missouri. He discussed Missouri's support for economic development while addressing community concerns (water, noise, rates) and ensuring data centers pay their fair share, as mandated by Senate Bill 4, to protect existing customers.

David Paz asked about the nature of the $5 billion increase in Ameren's 10-year capital plan pipeline, seeking a breakdown between Missouri and Illinois for advanced data center discussions, and inquired about regulatory and political engagement regarding large load and affordability in both states.

Answer

Senior EVP and CFO Michael Moehn explained the $5 billion capital plan increase is due to various factors, not just one. Chairman, President, and CEO Marty Lyons clarified that the two gigawatts of advanced data center discussions are in Missouri. He detailed Missouri's supportive stance on economic development while emphasizing the need for data centers to pay their fair share to protect existing customers.

David Paz asked for confirmation on whether Ameren still expects its EPS growth to trend towards the upper end of the 6% to 8% range during the second half of its five-year planning period.

Answer

Marty Lyons, Chairman, President and CEO, confirmed that the company still expects to deliver earnings growth near the upper end of its 6% to 8% CAGR range in the latter part of the 2025-2029 plan. He cited strong Q1 performance, progress on strategic goals like the IRP filing and Senate Bill 4, and incremental data center agreements as factors that increase his confidence and optimism in achieving this growth.

David Paz sought more precision on the cadence of the 6-8% EPS growth, asking if any specific headwinds could push earnings below the midpoint in the near term before the new sales growth fully materializes.

Answer

CEO Martin Lyons clarified that he does not see any specific headwinds that would cause the company to fall below the midpoint of its guidance range in the coming year. He reiterated that his earlier comments were meant to highlight that the ramp-up in sales and rate base growth in the latter half of the plan is what gives them confidence in delivering near the upper end of the range during that period.

David Paz of Wolfe Research asked how agreements with large load customers might be structured, particularly regarding cost-sharing for new generation, and how regulators are involved. He also sought confirmation that future long-term EPS growth guidance would be based on the new 2025 guidance.

Answer

Martin Lyons, Chairman, President and CEO, stated that as load grows, additional generation will be needed, and the company is evaluating the appropriate apportionment of costs to ensure fairness for all customers, a topic of ongoing dialogue. Michael Moehn, Senior Executive VP and CFO, confirmed that it is Ameren's historical practice to base its long-term EPS growth CAGR off the midpoint of the upcoming year's guidance, which in this case would be the 2025 range.

David Paz asked if the SB 254 CapEx ineligible for an equity return (approximately $2 billion-$2.3 billion) would be backfilled by other programs like NextGen, or if it represents additional CapEx, and how it would be spread across future General Rate Case cycles.

Answer

EVP and CFO Maria Rigatti clarified that the current capital plan includes $500 million-$700 million of SB 254 CapEx through 2028, which is explicitly excluded from the rate base for equity return. The remaining balance of SB 254 CapEx is expected to be spent after the current rate case cycle (post-2029 GRC), and future filings will clearly delineate rate base inclusion.

David Paz asked if the SB 254 CapEx, which is ineligible for an equity return, is anticipated to be backfilled with other programs or if it remains separate. He also inquired about the anticipated spread of the remaining SB 254 CapEx (post-2029) over the 2029-2032 General Rate Case cycle or upfront.

Answer

Maria Rigatti (EVP and CFO, Edison International) clarified that the current capital plan includes $500-700 million of SB 254-related CapEx through 2028, which is excluded from rate base for equity return. The balance of SB 254 CapEx would be spent after this rate case cycle (post-2029) and will be addressed in the next GRC. She stated that this CapEx is expected to be spent after 2029, and details for the 2029 GRC are not yet filed but will clarify rate base eligibility.

David Paz from Wolfe Research asked for confirmation that the COBAR project in Arizona has started construction and received all necessary interconnection approvals. He also inquired about Enlight's development plans for its PJM assets, particularly the Blackwater project. Finally, he requested guidance on run-rate costs, such as development expenses, to aid in financial modeling.

Answer

Jared Mckee (VP Business Development), Gilad Yavetz (Co-Founder, CEO & Director), and Nir Yehuda (CFO) responded. Mr. Mckee clarified that the COBAR project has been safe harbored and is in the final stages of the interconnection process, with full construction mobilization expected later in the year. Both Mr. Mckee and Mr. Yavetz confirmed that development of the PJM portfolio is ongoing. Regarding costs, Mr. Yavetz stated the provided roadmap is comprehensive, and Mr. Yehuda added that other P&L expenses are expected to grow at a slower rate than revenue and EBITDA.

David Paz sought confirmation on the construction and interconnection status of the COBAR project in Arizona. He also asked about the company's plans for its PJM assets, particularly the Blackwater project. Finally, he requested run-rate guidance for costs beyond revenue and EBITDA, such as development expenses.

Answer

Incoming Clēnera CEO Jared Mckee clarified that the COBAR project has been safe-harbored, with full construction mobilization expected later in the year and the final interconnection permit expected within the year. Regarding PJM, both he and CEO Gilad Yavetz confirmed that development of the portfolio, including Blackwater, is ongoing. CFO Nir Yehuda noted that other P&L expenses are expected to increase at a lower rate than revenues and EBITDA.

David Paz of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for confirmation on the status of the COBAR project in Arizona, specifically whether construction had started and all necessary interconnection approvals were secured. He also inquired about the company's plans for its PJM assets, particularly the advanced Blackwater project, and asked for guidance on run-rate costs beyond revenue and EBITDA.

Answer

Jared Mckee, incoming CEO of Clēnera, clarified that the COBAR project has been safe harbored, with full construction mobilization and final interconnection permits expected later in the year. Regarding PJM, both he and CEO Gilad Yavetz confirmed that development of the portfolio, including Blackwater, is ongoing. On costs, CFO Nir Yehuda noted that other P&L expenses are expected to increase at a lower rate than revenue and EBITDA.

David Paz of Wolfe Research, LLC asked for confirmation on the status of the COBAR project, specifically whether it had started construction and received all necessary approvals like the final interconnection permit. He also inquired about the company's plans for its PJM assets, particularly the advanced Blackwater project, and asked for guidance on other run-rate costs beyond revenue and EBITDA.

Answer

Incoming Clēnera CEO Jared Mckee clarified that the COBAR project is safe harbored through initial construction activities and the final interconnection permit is expected later in the year. Both Mckee and CEO Gilad Yavetz confirmed that development of the PJM portfolio is ongoing. Regarding costs, CFO Nir Yehuda stated that other P&L items are expected to increase at a lower rate than revenue and EBITDA, and Yavetz added that the provided roadmap is comprehensive for modeling purposes.

David Paz sought clarification on the cost range for new generation builds, the distinction in the 2025 earnings guidance versus long-term targets, and the reason the battery storage project was excluded from the Kentucky CPCN settlement.

Answer

President & CEO Vincent Sorgi provided a new build cost range of $2,200 to $2,500 per kW for a CCGT. EVP & CFO Joseph Bergstein clarified that the 'at least the midpoint' guidance applies to 2025 earnings, while the 'upper half of the range' refers to the long-term EPS growth target. Sorgi explained the battery storage project was deferred as a negotiated trade-off to extend the life of the Mill Creek II coal unit, but PPL retained the right to refile for the battery if future load growth necessitates it.

David Paz sought clarification on the cost range for new gas generation builds, the nuance between targeting 'at least the midpoint' versus the 'upper half' of 2025 guidance, and the reason for deferring the battery storage project in the Kentucky CPCN settlement.

Answer

President & CEO Vincent Sorgi clarified the new build cost range is $2,200 to $2,500 per kW. EVP & CFO Joseph Bergstein explained that the 'at least the midpoint' language applies to the 2025 earnings forecast, while the 'upper half' refers to the long-term 6-8% EPS growth target through 2028. Regarding the battery project, Sorgi stated it was deferred as part of the settlement negotiations in exchange for extending the life of the Mill Creek II coal unit, but PPL retained the right to refile for the battery if future load growth requires it.

David Paz followed up on data center announcements, asking if management still believes the first few announcements will trigger a cascade of others. He also asked about the return on equity for the socialized costs of grid upgrades in Pennsylvania and sought clarification on whether the $2,000/kW cost for Kentucky CCGTs includes AFUDC and transmission.

Answer

CEO Vincent Sorgi clarified that the 'cascade' effect was more relevant to Kentucky, whereas Pennsylvania already has immense interest (50-60 GW) due to its natural advantages and PPL's speed to market. He stated the ROE on socialized transmission costs is embedded in the FERC formula rate, which is currently around 10%. CFO Joe Bergstein confirmed the $2,000/kW estimate for the CCGTs is very close to an all-in number.

David Paz of Wolfe Research sought clarification on the annual cadence of EPS growth, the embedded earned ROE assumptions for Kentucky and Pennsylvania, and the estimated cost for the new natural gas plants.

Answer

CFO Joe Bergstein and CEO Vince Sorgi clarified that growth is projected at 7% for 2025, with expectations to reach the upper half of the 6-8% range after the current rate case cycle concludes. They declined to provide specific ROE assumptions but acknowledged capital pressure on returns. They noted cost estimates for the new gas plants are being updated for the CPCN filing but are expected to be similar to the Mill Creek 5 project.

David Paz asked about potential headwinds that could limit EPS growth to the lower end of the 6-8% range, despite significant capital opportunities, and inquired about the role of the upcoming resource adequacy conference in Pennsylvania's legislative process.

Answer

CFO Joe Bergstein explained that the earnings growth profile is transitioning to be more driven by rate base growth rather than a mix of growth and efficiencies. President and CEO Vincent Sorgi added that the PUC's technical conference is a constructive step for the commission to prepare for its expected role in administering any future legislation on resource adequacy.

David Paz followed up on commercial sales, asking if the company still anticipates reaching its 2025 target given Q1's tracking. He also inquired if the new Ohio law would change the deployment schedule for the remaining 900 megawatts of fuel cell capacity.

Answer

Trevor Mihalik, EVP and CFO, confirmed AEP still anticipates hitting its 2025 commercial sales growth target of approximately 22%, attributing confidence to firm, take-or-pay contracts with new customers. William Fehrman, President and CEO, stated the two fuel cell projects in flight are unaffected. For the remaining 900 MW, he noted they are in conversations with interested customers. Mihalik added that the remaining capacity is an option, not an obligation, for AEP to take.

David Paz asked for a reminder on any Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) related items in the company's outlook, such as transferability or tax deductions.

Answer

CFO Carolyn Burke explained that PG&E has no significant direct exposure to the IRA, as it currently has no utility-owned solar or storage projects under construction. She noted the company's exposure is indirect through its procurement of power via PPAs and that they are closely monitoring how pricing may be impacted by tax credit availability for their partners.

David Paz asked about the company's assumptions for earned returns versus allowed returns in its financial outlook, specifically requesting details on projected regulatory lag in Virginia and South Carolina. He also asked if new CapEx included spending on the Summer nuclear project.

Answer

EVP & CFO Steven Ridge stated that specific guidance on earned returns is not provided, but he expects to earn close to the allowed return in Virginia due to the high proportion of rider-recoverable investments. For South Carolina, he reiterated testimony that the current framework can cause significant regulatory lag of 100-200 basis points on average. He confirmed the financial plan conservatively assumes some improvement. Ridge also gave a definitive 'No' to any capital being allocated to the Summer nuclear project.