Question · Q4 2025
David Rosso asked for clarification on the organic growth cadence, specifically how January is performing against the 1%-3% guide, given strong cyclical trends exiting Q4, and also inquired about inventory levels.
Answer
CFO Michael Larsen stated that January is on track with expectations, with positive organic growth in Q1, though slightly lower than in Q2, Q3, and Q4 due to typical seasonality, and a larger currency tailwind at the beginning of the year. Regarding inventory, he explained that levels typically decrease towards year-end and that there's no unusual reduction due to lower growth expectations; in some cases, inventory was added to mitigate supply chain risks. Rosso also asked if the semi business, despite being a smaller portion of ITW, is a significant driver of incremental margin improvement when it starts moving. Michael Larsen confirmed that when semi markets pick up, incrementals come through at above-average levels of profitability, acknowledging its cyclical nature and promising outlook for 2026 based on Q4 performance and order activity.
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