Question · Q4 2025
David Scharf sought clarification on whether the Q1 origination outlook factors in a larger-than-normal refund season, the assumption for year-over-year loss rates under fair value, and how CECL's macro layer translates to day one fair value marks.
Answer
VP, Head of FP&A, and Investor Relations Artem Nalivayko stated it's difficult to factor in refund season specifics, but confirmed larger refunds lead to higher payments and potentially temporary shifts in credit demand. He indicated an assumption of stable annual loss rates (ANCLs) for the year, despite increasing duration from new products, and no major shift in those numbers. Artem Nalivayko explained that under fair value, qualitative reserves are not explicitly layered in as with CECL, and they will not speculate on future economic stress for reserving.
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