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    David VernonSanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC

    David Vernon's questions to Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of AllianceBernstein asked about the impact of tariffs, questioning if the negative risk to grain exports is being offset by any positive impacts in other areas, such as reshoring or redirected freight flows for metals and other domestic movements.

    Answer

    EVP of Marketing & Sales Kenny Rocker responded that the biggest positive is having a strong service product to handle the stops and starts caused by tariffs. He noted some 'green shoots,' such as customers shifting production from Asia to Mexico, and believes that while not immediate, there will be a long-term positive for metals and other domestic volumes.

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    David Vernon's questions to Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein requested more detail on the 'best pricing in 10 years,' asking about the magnitude of improvement, specific drivers like service or commodity strength, and its sustainability.

    Answer

    EVP Kenny Rocker attributed the pricing success to the strong service product and network investments, which allow the company to price for value. CEO Vincenzo Vena added that investments in new facilities and network fluidity improvements, such as in Houston, also support better pricing by providing enhanced service and market access for customers.

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    David Vernon's questions to Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein asked about the current utilization rate of Union Pacific's owned intermodal container fleet and whether the recent rise in natural gas prices could create a pricing benefit for its utility coal contracts.

    Answer

    EVP of Marketing and Sales Kenny Rocker noted that while the company's rail-owned fleet was deployed more in the second half of the year, there is still upside as the broader market has not fully recovered. On the second point, he acknowledged that higher natural gas prices should theoretically benefit coal demand but was cautious about forecasting the volatile commodity.

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    David Vernon's questions to Union Pacific Corp (UNP) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC asked for help reconciling external data showing low intermodal train speeds with the company's reported improvements in service and efficiency.

    Answer

    EVP Eric Gehringer acknowledged the issue, attributing it to the network absorbing an unexpected 33% surge in international intermodal volume. Executive Vincenzo Vena added that while velocity was impacted, the overall supply chain remained fluid, with no ships held up at ports. He framed it as a success story in handling a massive, unplanned volume increase, proving the resilience of the West Coast ports.

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    David Vernon's questions to American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of AllianceBernstein asked about the key opportunities for improving the customer experience, and how American will measure and communicate its progress to investors.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Isom stated that progress will be measured by customer perception via Net Promoter Scores (NPS) and by financial results, specifically premium and overall unit revenues. He highlighted investments in flagship suites, lounges, and in-flight amenities. He confirmed they benchmark NPS against peers and see it as a significant opportunity, starting with running a reliable operation.

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    David Vernon's questions to American Airlines Group Inc (AAL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein inquired about American Airlines' plans for capacity moderation in the second half of the year given demand weakness, and whether the recovery of corporate share is achieving expected yields.

    Answer

    CEO Robert Isom confirmed the airline has a "negative bias to all capacity" going forward and will react nimbly to demand shifts, though summer capacity is largely set. Vice Chair Steve Johnson added that the corporate share recovery is proceeding as expected.

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    David Vernon's questions to CSX Corp (CSX) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to CSX Corp (CSX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC asked for the percentage of CSX's revenue that originates west of the Mississippi River to better understand freight flow dynamics.

    Answer

    EVP & CCO Kevin Boone stated that over half of CSX's business touches another railroad but declined to provide a more specific breakdown of revenue origination by geography.

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    David Vernon's questions to CSX Corp (CSX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked whether restoring service is primarily a resource or scheduling issue, and if key metrics can recover before major infrastructure projects like the Howard Street Tunnel are complete.

    Answer

    EVP and COO Michael Cory described the recovery as a "gradual process" that will not be resolved overnight but will show improvement throughout Q2. He noted that recent flooding on a key reroute corridor complicated recovery efforts, requiring the team to essentially "start from scratch" on certain operational plans.

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    David Vernon's questions to CSX Corp (CSX) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked for a breakdown of the $300 million headwind between volume and price, and questioned if recent project-related service issues were creating additional volume pressure.

    Answer

    EVP and CCO Kevin Boone clarified the $300 million headwind was entirely related to met coal prices and fuel surcharge, not volume. EVP and CFO Sean Pelkey added that they do not anticipate any volume disruption from the Howard Street Tunnel project, as the incremental costs are specifically to preserve that volume for future growth.

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    David Vernon's questions to CSX Corp (CSX) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked for perspective on how CSX's investments in corporate culture have translated into measurable changes in metrics like employee churn rates or internal Net Promoter Scores.

    Answer

    CEO Joseph Hinrichs stated that while culture is hard to measure, the company has seen meaningful improvements in employee Net Promoter Scores. He directly linked these cultural efforts to business results, including record-high customer NPS, improved efficiency, and network resiliency, citing the company's hurricane response and early labor agreements as tangible outcomes of a stronger 'ONE CSX' team culture.

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    David Vernon's questions to Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked about the timing for a return to volume growth in 2026, considering that current tariff headwinds could persist into next year.

    Answer

    CEO Tracy Robinson stated that the timing of a tariff resolution is unpredictable. However, she emphasized that CN is actively working with customers to find alternative markets and that the fundamental growth strategy, particularly in resilient sectors like agriculture and energy, remains strong and intact regardless of the near-term trade environment.

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    David Vernon's questions to Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon posed a long-term question about the competitiveness of the Prince Rupert port in a potential future with higher trade barriers, asking if it would gain or lose container share against U.S. West Coast ports.

    Answer

    CEO Tracy Robinson asserted that Prince Rupert has a competitive advantage in almost any situation, highlighting its growth in bulk and liquids in addition to containers. CCO Remi Lalonde added that Rupert's value proposition of being the fastest, flattest, and least congested route to the Midwest remains strong, making it cost-competitive and reliable on an end-to-end basis.

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    David Vernon's questions to Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked for quantification of the incremental volume opportunity from two specific growth initiatives: natural gas liquids exports from the West Coast and the Jansen potash mine project.

    Answer

    Chief Commercial Officer Remi Lalonde clarified that significant growth from natural gas liquids is expected later in 2026 with the AltaGas Vopak project, with 2025 growth being more incremental. For the Jansen potash mine, he noted it is not expected to start until Q3 2026, and market share details are still pending.

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    David Vernon's questions to Canadian National Railway Co (CNI) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein questioned why CN would not consider front-loading its share buyback program while the stock multiple is depressed, even if it meant temporarily exceeding its leverage target.

    Answer

    CFO Ghislain Houle acknowledged this as a 'conundrum' that is regularly debated internally and with the Board. He confirmed that for now, the company has decided to manage to its 2.5x adjusted debt-to-EBITDA leverage target but advised investors to 'stay tuned' as discussions are ongoing.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of AllianceBernstein asked for a breakdown of the revised full-year EPS guidance and what assumptions about demand acceleration are baked into the second half. He also sought clarity on the key drivers behind the implied RASM improvement from Q3 to Q4.

    Answer

    EVP & CFO Mike Leskinen explained that the $9-$11 EPS guidance reflects their conservative philosophy of building in a contingency, which the prior higher range lacked. He noted the guidance could prove conservative if strong booking trends persist. EVP & CCO Andrew Nocella detailed that the Q3-to-Q4 RASM step-up is driven by lower published industry capacity, a rebound in higher-yielding business traffic, and a shift to positive domestic yields, creating a setup similar to the strong Q4 of 2024.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein questioned how United balances using its margin advantage to take share versus protecting margins, and how it plans to maintain brand loyalty leadership as competitors increase premium investments.

    Answer

    CEO Scott Kirby asserted there is no tension between the two, as winning brand-loyal customers is the core strategy that leads to top margins and resilience. EVP and CFO Mike Leskinen added that United maintains its lead through continuous innovation, a multi-year head start on investments like clubs and WiFi, and a pipeline of unannounced customer-facing initiatives.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked about the drivers of the Q1 2025 trend improvement and whether the full-year guidance reflects the current state or anticipates further improvement. He also sought clarification on whether the guidance includes potential new labor agreements.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO Mike Leskinen stated that United maintains a 'no-excuses philosophy' for guidance and expects 3 to 4 points of margin expansion in Q1. He acknowledged potential upside in the second half of the year beyond the current guidance and confirmed that the forecast does incorporate anticipated labor deals.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked about the rationale for United's unique international expansion, such as to Greenland, and the potential impact of the Boeing 777X delay on wide-body aircraft supply and demand.

    Answer

    EVP & CCO Andrew Nocella explained that United's strong global gateways enable profitable flights to a wide range of destinations, enhancing the brand. He also noted that wide-body production will likely not meet demand for the next 3-5 years, creating a favorable setup for global networks. EVP & CFO Mike Leskinen added that ongoing 787 delays would create a downward bias to CapEx.

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    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked how much of the second-half unit revenue guidance relies on Delta's own network adjustments versus expectations of competitors' capacity actions. He also sought an update on the potential impact of aircraft tariffs and Delta's related discussions with the government.

    Answer

    President Glen Hauenstein stated the outlook is a combination of both factors: what Delta can control and what is visible in competitors' schedules through September. CEO Ed Bastian reiterated his strong stance that Delta does not plan to pay any tariffs on aircraft deliveries, expressing encouragement about progress in Washington and citing the recent UK-US trade agreement as a positive template.

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    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon from Bernstein questioned how much of the improved unit revenue outlook is driven by Delta's own network control versus expectations of competitors' capacity cuts. He also asked for an update on the potential impact of aircraft tariffs.

    Answer

    President Glen Hauenstein stated the outlook is based on a combination of what Delta can control and visible capacity adjustments from peers. On tariffs, CEO Ed Bastian was firm, stating, "we're not planning on paying any tariffs for aircraft deliveries." He added that Delta is encouraged by progress in trade discussions, particularly the UK-US acknowledgment of the 1979 Aviation Act.

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    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon questioned the potential impact of tariffs on Delta's CapEx budget and its appetite to defer aircraft deliveries. He also asked about the trend in customer buy-ups from Main Cabin to premium products and whether the yield spreads were widening.

    Answer

    CEO Ed Bastian stated unequivocally that Delta will not be paying tariffs on aircraft deliveries and is working closely with its partner Airbus. President Glen Hauenstein confirmed that the premium cabins continue to outperform Main Cabin and that he expects the yield spreads between them to widen in the upcoming quarter, not converge.

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    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon requested a breakdown of the 10% corporate demand growth between volume and yield, asked about corporate market share trends, and inquired about the balance of ASM growth between international and domestic.

    Answer

    President Glen Hauenstein stated that corporate growth was initially driven by traffic and is now fueled by a mix of both positive traffic and positive yield. He asserted that Delta's corporate share is at record highs. He guided that international ASM growth would be slightly higher than domestic, with Latin America seeing the lowest growth.

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    David Vernon's questions to Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon of AllianceBernstein inquired about the confidence in separating the U.S. election's impact from broader consumer weakness and asked about Delta's domestic capacity strategy as competitors reduce their schedules.

    Answer

    President Glen Hauenstein explained that the election's impact is clearly isolated to the two weeks surrounding the event, with strong booking trends before and after, indicating it's not a sign of general consumer weakness. CEO Ed Bastian added that while details will come at Investor Day, Delta is restoring capacity in core hubs like Atlanta to pre-COVID levels.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked for the annualized 2026 run-rate of the cost savings and questioned if the price increases on the newly insourced Ground Saver (formerly SurePost) service were causing volume churn to competitors.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Dykes projected a similar level of savings in 2026 but deferred a precise figure. He explained the 8.5% decline in Ground Saver volume was largely intentional, aimed at improving revenue quality by shedding less profitable business. CEO Carol Tomé added that UPS's high reliability, with 97% on-time delivery, is a key differentiator against competitors.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked for the annualized 2026 run-rate of the $3.5 billion in cost savings and inquired about volume and pricing trends for the newly in-sourced Ground Saver product.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Dykes stated that a similar amount of cost savings is expected in 2026 but deferred specifics. Regarding Ground Saver, he confirmed an 8.5% volume decline in Q1 was an 'intentional decline' to improve revenue quality with certain customers following the in-sourcing. CEO Carol Tomé added that this trend would likely continue in Q2 and emphasized the product's high reliability as a key differentiator.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein sought clarity on the 2025 margin guidance, asking what the run-rate margin would be without near-term deleveraging, and questioned the company's organic growth outlook excluding the Amazon volume reduction.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Dykes explained that the forecast already includes taking out fixed costs commensurate with the volume drawdown, leading to a 6% rise in revenue per piece. He noted the actions unlock future margin control. CEO Carol Tomé addressed growth, stating the non-Amazon small package market is growing in the low single digits and UPS plans to take share, particularly in SMBs (targeting 32% of U.S. volume in 2025). She emphasized growth in complex logistics, healthcare, and B2B. Brian Dykes quantified that the Amazon action reduces revenue by ~$2.5B, offset by over $1B in growth from other areas.

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    David Vernon's questions to United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked for the key drivers behind the significant operating profit ramp expected from Q3 to Q4 and how those factors might shape profitability into 2025.

    Answer

    CFO Brian Dykes attributed the projected profit increase to a focus on revenue quality, strategic pricing actions, and the acceleration of cost-out initiatives like 'Fit to Serve' and 'Network of the Future'. He noted that these productivity gains provide an incremental bump over normal seasonality and that the company expects to exit the year with a domestic margin slightly higher than the previously guided 10%.

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    David Vernon's questions to Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon from Bernstein asked for an explanation for the lower load factor relative to peers and inquired about expectations for load factor recovery. He also questioned if the company should consider more aggressive capacity cuts.

    Answer

    Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson explained the lower load factor was a result of a deliberate pricing strategy to maintain robust yields amid macro weakness, avoiding a 'falling knife' scenario of deep discounting. He noted that load factors began improving in April as the company participated more in further-out discounting. Watterson added that initiatives like Basic Economy and improved network connectivity are designed to boost off-peak load factors without sacrificing peak-period yields.

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    David Vernon's questions to FedEx Corp (FDX) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to FedEx Corp (FDX) leadership • Q3 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein asked about the productivity benefits, challenges, and areas for refinement observed from the initial rollout of Network 2.0 facilities.

    Answer

    President and CEO Rajesh Subramaniam stated that the Network 2.0 rollout is progressing well, achieving its goal of a 10% reduction in P&D costs while maintaining solid service levels. He noted that by the end of FY'25, 12% of total volume will flow through these facilities, with that figure expected to reach about 40% by the end of FY'26.

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    David Vernon's questions to FedEx Corp (FDX) leadership • Q2 2025

    Question

    David Vernon of Bernstein asked for the percentage of volume that has been touched by the Network 2.0 integration to date and inquired about the timeline for tackling the more complex integrations in major metro areas.

    Answer

    President and CEO Raj Subramaniam stated that 250 stations are expected to be integrated by the end of fiscal 2025. He clarified that the 'big lift' for the Network 2.0 rollout, presumably including the more complex major metro areas, is scheduled for fiscal year 2026, with FY26 and FY27 being the two most significant years for the initiative.

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    David Vernon's questions to FedEx Corp (FDX) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    David Vernon asked about the expected earnings cadence for the remainder of fiscal 2025. He also inquired conceptually if the intercompany costs allocated to FedEx Freight accurately reflect what its burden would be as a standalone entity.

    Answer

    EVP and CFO John Dietrich declined to comment on the specifics of the Freight review, stating the ongoing assessment is comprehensive. Regarding cadence, he reiterated that Q2 seasonality would be below normal, with the second half being stronger, and that profits are expected to improve sequentially through the year, driven by DRIVE and other initiatives.

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    David Vernon's questions to Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    Speaking on behalf of David Vernon, Justine asked about discussions with regulators for a sweeping federal framework, the progress on shifting to single-vehicle operators, and for clarification on the upper bound of 'tens of trucks' by year-end.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Urmson expressed optimism for a national regulatory framework, citing supportive comments from the Transportation Secretary. CFO David Maday clarified that the operational focus is shifting to *no* vehicle operators for commercial runs, making the single vs. dual operator mix for testing a less relevant metric. Maday did not provide a specific upper bound for the truck count, reiterating focus on execution and the mid-single-digit millions revenue guidance for 2025.

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    David Vernon's questions to Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon questioned the scalability of the Aurora Driver, asking why extending to the new Fort Worth to Phoenix lane wouldn't require a similarly lengthy validation process as the initial Dallas to Houston lane.

    Answer

    CEO Christopher Urmson explained that a core company thesis is the 'self-similarity' of freeways, meaning driving is fundamentally the same across different states. He noted that the Aurora Driver's capabilities transferred seamlessly to the Phoenix lane, requiring only minor, anticipated work. Urmson emphasized that their granular validation process allows them to identify only the incremental features needed for a new lane, making each subsequent lane deployment faster.

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    David Vernon's questions to Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) leadership

    David Vernon's questions to Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) leadership • Q4 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked for guidance on how to model coal RPU sequentially and about the potential seasonality or timing of the guided 150 basis points of OR improvement throughout 2025.

    Answer

    CMO Ed Boyle indicated that the headwind on coal RPU from lower seaborne prices is present now and expected to continue in the near-to-medium term. CEO Mark George stated the 150 bps OR improvement is an annual target, and while quarterly results will have puts and takes, strong operational momentum provides confidence in hitting the full-year goal despite inflationary pressures.

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    David Vernon's questions to Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    David Vernon asked about the U.S.'s competitive position in the export met coal market amid a potential price correction and the possible volume and price headwinds for NSC in 2025.

    Answer

    CMO Ed Elkins stated that while it's early for a 2025 view, the U.S. has historically remained very competitive. He noted a strong demand position for export thermal coal and identified China's demand and geopolitical uncertainty as key variables for met coal. He affirmed the company is prepared to meet global customer demand.

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