Devin Mcdermott

Devin McDermott asked about ConocoPhillips' growth opportunities in Equatorial Guinea, specifically regarding backfill projects for the LNG facility and the impact of recent unitization agreements.

Answer

Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO, and Kirk Johnson, EVP of Global Operations and Technical Functions, expressed encouragement regarding cross-border cooperation and discussions with other operators, including Chevron. The goal is to transform the acquired asset into a 10-20 year asset by leveraging existing infrastructure for new fields, existing field development, and infill opportunities, creating an advantaged cost of supply.

Devin McDermott inquired about the opportunity set in Equatorial Guinea, specifically regarding potential backfill projects for the LNG facility and the impact of the recent unitization agreement between Equatorial Guinea and Cameroon for the Yoyo-Yolanda fields.

Answer

Ryan Lance, Chairman and CEO, and Kirk Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and Technical Functions, ConocoPhillips, discussed efforts to extend the Equatorial Guinea LNG asset's life to 10-20 years. They highlighted encouraging cross-border cooperation with Cameroon and Chevron's Aseng, alongside ongoing confidential discussions with the government for infill gas opportunities, all aimed at leveraging existing infrastructure for an advantaged cost of supply.

Devin McDermott inquired about the specific drivers behind the capital budget reduction and what macro conditions would prompt the company to exercise its capital program flexibility.

Answer

Andy O'Brien, SVP of Strategy, explained that the $0.5 billion capital reduction stems from broad-based capital efficiency improvements and plan optimization, not from material changes to scope in the Lower 48. He stated that the company is taking a measured approach, monitoring the macro environment's depth and duration before making significant program changes, while remaining focused on maximizing returns through the cycle.

Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley asked for an update on the Willow project in Alaska, including near-term milestones and spending cadence, and for broader thoughts on the Western North Slope opportunity given the political environment.

Answer

Kirk Johnson, SVP of Global Operations, reported that the Willow project is on track, with the current winter construction season—the project's largest—progressing well and slightly ahead of plan. He confirmed 2025 is the peak spending year, with capital expected to be about $500 million higher than in 2024 and front-loaded in Q1. Regarding the political environment, Johnson noted the recent executive order reversing prior restrictions on the NPRA was welcome news, and the company looks forward to partnering with the DOI and the state of Alaska to continue exploration west of Willow.

Devin McDermott asked for an updated outlook on pro forma shareholder returns for 2025, considering the increased synergies, capital efficiency, and commodity price volatility.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ryan Lance stated it was too early to provide a specific 2025 distribution target due to market volatility. He pointed to the company's history of returning approximately 45% of CFO to shareholders and its commitment to a compelling return, suggesting the 2025 payout will be significantly higher than the 30% floor. He emphasized the company's flexibility and strong operational performance as key factors in navigating the market.

Devin McDermott asked about the early results of Chevron's structural cost reduction program and new operating model, specifically regarding costs and operations, including any positive surprises or areas still in progress.

Answer

CFO Eimear Bonner confirmed the new operating model went live in October, with $1.5 billion saved thus far and a run rate exceeding $2 billion by year-end. She noted that organizational efficiencies are contributing to these results, with confidence in achieving the $3 billion-$4 billion target by end of 2026. Examples of improvements include optimizing production chemicals in the shale and tight portfolio and leveraging AI in the supply chain.

Devin McDermott asked for insights into the early results of Chevron's new operating model, implemented last fall, focusing on cost reduction progress, operational impacts, and any lessons learned or areas still in progress.

Answer

CFO Eimear Bonner reported $1.5 billion in cost reductions so far, with a run rate exceeding $2 billion, attributing success to organizational efficiencies. She cited examples like optimizing production chemicals in the consolidated shale and tight portfolio and leveraging AI in supply chain negotiations, expressing confidence in achieving the $3 billion-$4 billion target by end of 2026.

Devin McDermott inquired about the status of discussions regarding the Kazakhstan (TCO) concession extension, following Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth's meeting with the President of Kazakhstan, and sought broader color on the dialogue.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth confirmed meeting the President of Kazakhstan, emphasizing TCO's significant value creation for all stakeholders. He characterized the concession extension negotiations as a 'good start' but noted they are complex and will take time, involving technical and commercial teams. He indicated that quarterly updates on this process are not expected.

Devin McDermott inquired about the status of discussions regarding the concession extension in Kazakhstan, following Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth's meeting with the President, seeking an update on the process and any broader insights into the dialogue.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Mike Wirth confirmed meeting the President and having a good conversation, emphasizing TCO's significant value creation for all stakeholders. He characterized the negotiations as a good start, acknowledging they will be complex and time-consuming, involving technical and commercial teams. Wirth stated that quarterly updates should not be expected due to the nature of the work.

Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley requested more detail on the business reorganization, asking for a comparison of the new and old structures and the tangible benefits expected beyond cost savings, such as in operational execution and project delivery.

Answer

Vice Chairman Mark Nelson explained the shift from a decentralized model to one that groups similar businesses (like deepwater) to accelerate best practices, standardizes work to leverage scale and technology (like digital twins for turnarounds), and simplifies processes for employees, leading to broad performance improvements.

Devin McDermott asked about the specific market conditions or parameters that would prompt Chevron to adjust its short-cycle investment plans, particularly in areas like the Permian Basin.

Answer

CEO Mike Wirth stated that while the company has a playbook for various market scenarios, it is too early to make adjustments. He asserted that Chevron has never been in a better position to navigate a cycle. CFO Eimear Bonner added that the strong balance sheet, with 14% net debt, and ongoing cost and capital reduction programs provide a robust foundation.

Devin McDermott inquired about the impact of recent U.S. energy policies on Chevron's operations, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico, its new energy ventures, and its operating license in Venezuela.

Answer

CEO Mike Wirth described the current policy environment as more 'balanced,' anticipating it will encourage more access and permit reform. Regarding Venezuela, he affirmed that Chevron's focus is on safe operations and compliance with all applicable laws and sanctions, stating the company does not set policy but engages with governments.

Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley inquired about Chevron's strategy for using its balance sheet to support shareholder returns, especially given commodity market volatility and a net debt level below long-term targets.

Answer

CEO Mike Wirth reiterated the firm's consistent financial priorities and unchanged share repurchase guidance, emphasizing a long track record of returns through various cycles, supported by a strong balance sheet. CFO Eimear Bonner added that with net debt under 12%, the company is underlevered and comfortable with its current position, expecting debt to decrease further with near-term asset sale proceeds.

Devin McDermott asked about ExxonMobil's exploration strategy for the Stabroek Block in Guyana, specifically regarding the 2027 license expiry and the opportunity set for the force majeure area disputed by Venezuela.

Answer

CEO Darren Woods explained that ExxonMobil continues to explore and develop within accessible areas of the Stabroek Block, leveraging learnings from ongoing drilling. He noted that the force majeure area's unlock depends on the International Court of Justice ruling on the border dispute with Venezuela, which would pause the clock on exploration obligations.

Devin McDermott asked about ExxonMobil's exploration strategy for the Stabroek Block in Guyana, specifically regarding the upcoming 2027 license expiry and the opportunity set within the force majeure area disputed by Venezuela.

Answer

CEO Darren Woods explained that ExxonMobil continues to explore in accessible areas of the block, leveraging learnings from their development program. He noted that the force majeure area's potential hinges on the International Court of Justice ruling regarding the border dispute, which pauses the clock on exploration obligations. Woods expressed optimism about future opportunities in that acreage.

Devin McDermott inquired about the drivers behind ExxonMobil's record Permian production results and the raised full-year guide, specifically asking if advanced proppant rollout or changes in development/spacing contributed, and how this impacts capital and activity requirements for multi-year growth targets.

Answer

Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO, attributed the outperformance to continuous innovation and a pipeline of technology options, including the advanced proppant, which are leading to better production and more effective capital deployment. He emphasized that the team constantly seeks improvements and integrates them on the fly, with more details to be shared in the December corporate plan.

Devin McDermott asked for more details on the drivers behind ExxonMobil's record Permian production results and the raised full-year guide. He specifically asked if the advanced proppant rollout or changes in development/spacing were contributing factors and how this impacts future capital and activity requirements.

Answer

Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, attributed the outperformance to continuous innovation and the team's efforts to improve and evaluate operations, implementing a pipeline of technologies to unlock resources and lower capital costs. He noted that these improvements are consistently built into the plan outlook.

Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley inquired about ExxonMobil's M&A strategy, asking how its strong organic pipeline and unique technology influence its approach to acquisitions.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Darren Woods explained that ExxonMobil's strategy is to leverage its competitive advantages for both organic and inorganic growth, seeking deals where 'one plus one equals three.' He cited the Pioneer acquisition as a prime example of creating value through technology and talent integration, not just acquiring volume. Woods stated that opportunities are being evaluated across all business sectors, with a high bar for value creation, talent accretion, and cultural fit.

Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley inquired about the impact of slowing global growth and U.S.-China tariffs on the new China chemicals project and the broader chemicals business.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Darren Woods stated that the chemicals industry faces a supply glut, but ExxonMobil is positioned to succeed through advantaged projects and cost discipline. He highlighted that the new China complex was built under budget and ahead of schedule, is protected from tariffs, and will competitively supply the domestic market. The facility will ramp up through 2025 and is expected to be fully operational in 2026.

Requested more detailed information on the growth projects queued for 2025, asking about the specific timing for key start-ups, their expected impact on earnings throughout the year, and when the full $3 billion earnings run rate would be achieved.

Answer

The executive provided a detailed timeline for major 2025 project start-ups, including the China Chemical complex (Q1), Fawley diesel facility (Q2), Baytown advanced recycling (Q2/Q4), and Yellowtail (Q3). The full $3 billion earnings run rate from these projects is expected to be realized in 2026, and this earnings potential is resilient even at current lower margins.

Devin McDermott requested more detail on the timing of the 10 major project start-ups in 2025 and when the company expects to achieve the full $3 billion-plus earnings run rate from them.

Answer

CEO Darren Woods provided a comprehensive timeline for key 2025 projects, including the China Chemical complex (Q1), Fawley diesel unit (early Q2), Singapore resid upgrade (end of Q2), and Yellowtail in Guyana (Q3). He clarified that the full earnings potential of over $3 billion from these projects is expected to be realized in 2026, even at current challenging price and margin conditions.

Devin McDermott requested more detail on the timing of key 2025 project start-ups and when the company expects to achieve the full $3 billion-plus earnings run rate from them.

Answer

CEO Darren Woods provided a detailed 2025 timeline: China Chemical complex (Q1), Foley low-sulfur diesel (early Q2), Baytown advanced recycling units (Q2 and Q4), Strathcona renewable diesel (Q2), Singapore resid upgrade (end of Q2), and Yellowtail (Q3). He stated that the full earnings potential of over $3 billion from these projects is expected to be realized in 2026.

Devin McDermott inquired about additional commercial opportunities, specifically a new supply contract for a data center in Greene County, Pennsylvania, and EQT's views on price structure and in-basin demand growth. He also asked about the strategic goals of LNG deals and the direct-to-customer sales strategy.

Answer

Toby Rice, President and CEO, confirmed a robust opportunity pipeline, focusing on scale and speed for projects, and noted potential for fixed pricing structures with hyperscalers to enhance cash flow durability. Jeremy Knop, CFO, explained that LNG contracts were intentionally timed to avoid the 2027-2029 oversupply window, focusing on high-quality facilities and favorable credit terms, with the current focus on building out the team for long-term global sales agreements.

Devin McDermott inquired about EQT's commercial opportunities, specifically new data center projects in Greene County, Pennsylvania, and the trends in incremental opportunities, price structure, and in-basin demand growth. He also asked about EQT's LNG deals, diversification of price exposure, and direct-to-customer sales strategy.

Answer

Toby Rice (President and CEO, EQT) confirmed a robust opportunity pipeline for data centers, focusing on scale and speed, and suggested fixed pricing structures for gas supply could enhance cash flow durability. Jeremy Knop (CFO, EQT) explained that EQT intentionally timed LNG projects to come online after the 2027-2029 oversupply window, securing favorable credit terms, and is now focused on building out its team and systems for long-term global sales agreements.

Devin McDermott from Morgan Stanley inquired about the evolution of the base business capital budget, considering the roll-off of compression spending and D&C synergies, and how that creates capacity for strategic growth. He also asked about the future opportunity set for in-basin demand projects, given the rapid execution of deals.

Answer

CFO Jeremy Knop clarified that maintenance CapEx is expected to decrease into 2026-2027 while growth CapEx increases, which is a deliberate strategy driven by base business efficiencies. President and CEO Toby Rice added that EQT has already secured over 1.5 Bcf/d of power demand opportunities, exceeding initial expectations. He noted a potential "cluster effect" from AI data centers could expand this opportunity set further.

Devin McDermott asked about EQT's forward-looking M&A strategy, including the criteria for future acquisitions and the company's role in further industry consolidation. He also sought more detail on the in-basin demand opportunities, specifically their size, timeline, and potential contract structures.

Answer

CEO Toby Rice stated that while the bar for M&A is high, EQT will remain patient and focus on value, highlighting the company's strong organic operational momentum. CFO Jeremy Knop added that the primary criterion is maintaining a low-cost structure, making opportunities like Olympus rare. Regarding in-basin demand, Rice explained it's driven by blocked pipeline projects, positioning EQT to serve new power generation and data centers. He confirmed confidence in announcing a deal in 2025 but noted the complexity of these arrangements.

Devin Mcdermott from Morgan Stanley inquired about the price signals that would cause Expand Energy to adjust its 2026 production plans. He also asked for views on Haynesville well productivity, noting degradation among other producers in state data.

Answer

President, Director & CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated the company is not bothered by short-term volatility but retains flexibility to adjust if conditions change. Executive VP & COO Josh Viets clarified the reporting issue is specific to Louisiana state data. He added that while Expand's core inventory is strong, industry-wide degradation is expected as activity moves outside the core.

Devin McDermott inquired about the price level or duration that would cause Expand Energy to adjust its 2026 production plan and asked about the scope of Haynesville well productivity reporting issues.

Answer

CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated the company is not concerned with short-term price volatility, as capital plans are set for long-term production and the macro outlook remains strong with new LNG demand. Executive VP & COO Josh Viets clarified the well data issue is specific to Louisiana state reporting and likely affects other operators, adding that industry-wide productivity may degrade outside core areas where Expand Energy has a deep inventory.

Devin McDermott asked about the company's capital allocation triggers given recent Henry Hub price weakness and what is needed to reaffirm the 2026 production target. He also asked about Haynesville well productivity and whether reporting issues are basin-wide.

Answer

President, Director & CEO Domenic Dell’Osso stated the company is not bothered by short-term volatility, as capital cycles are long and the demand outlook remains strong. Executive VP & COO Josh Viets clarified the reporting issue is specific to the state of Louisiana, likely impacting several operators, and noted that industry-wide, well productivity will likely degrade outside the core where inventory depth is lower.

Devin McDermott inquired about the specifics of the 2025 CapEx and OpEx reductions, their impact on 2026, and the breakdown of the future free cash flow inflection between operating cash flow and lower capital spending.

Answer

Richard Jackson, President, U.S. Onshore, detailed efficiency gains in the Permian, infrastructure optimization, and OpEx levers like reduced downhole maintenance. Kenneth Dillon, President, International Operations, explained the deferral of a Gulf of America well. Sunil Mathew, CFO, broke down the ~$1 billion 2026 free cash flow improvement, attributing it to lower chemicals CapEx and higher cash flow ($460M), midstream contract benefits and STRATOS roll-off ($450M), and interest savings ($135M).

Devin McDermott asked for details on the drivers behind the expected production increase in the second half of the year and inquired about the conditions under which Canadian natural gas assets would compete for more growth capital.

Answer

President and CEO Eric Hambly expressed high confidence in the production profile, citing that the most productive onshore wells are already online and exceeding expectations, with current output already over 180,000 boe/d. Regarding Canadian gas, Hambly explained that while the assets are highly capital-efficient, the Tupper West plant is at capacity. A durable, higher gas price signal, potentially driven by LNG Canada, would be needed to justify short-cycle investment to keep the plant full longer, but they remain cautious of historical boom-bust cycles in the basin.