Devin Ryan

Devin Ryan sought insight into the growth expectations for Evercore's non-M&A businesses, such as private capital and capital markets advisory, over the next 12-18 months, and their role in the overall business mix.

Answer

CEO John Weinberg highlighted continued strength across Evercore's non-M&A businesses, with Private Capital Advisory (PCA), Private Funds Group (PFG), and debt advisory/private capital markets all achieving record or high performance. He emphasized that non-M&A revenues consistently contribute around 45% of total revenues, demonstrating successful diversification and ongoing investment in these areas.

Devin Ryan asked for an outlook on Evercore's non-M&A businesses, such as Private Capital and Capital Markets Advisory, and how their growth expectations compare to the strong M&A business, considering their role in providing stability.

Answer

CEO John Weinberg highlighted continued strength across all businesses, with virtually all at or near record levels. He noted that Private Capital Advisory (PCA), Private Funds Group (PFG), Debt Advisory/Private Capital Markets, and real estate advisory businesses all had record or very strong years. Weinberg emphasized that non-M&A businesses still generated 45% of revenues, even with strong M&A activity, reflecting successful diversification efforts and ongoing investment in these areas.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP questioned the sustainability of Evercore's business diversification, where non-M&A sources contributed about 50% of revenue, asking if this is a new baseline or if the mix will revert as the M&A market recovers.

Answer

Chairman and CEO John Weinberg stated that while it's difficult to predict exact percentages, Evercore is highly leveraged to the M&A business, which will likely grow faster during a recovery and increase its share of revenue. However, he emphasized that the firm will continue to invest in its strong non-M&A businesses like PCA and restructuring, suggesting the future mix could stabilize with non-M&A representing a significant portion, potentially around 40-50%.

Devin Ryan of Piper Sandler inquired about the health of Evercore's deal backlogs and what catalysts, such as market stability, are needed to convert them into completed transactions.

Answer

CEO John Weinberg confirmed that backlogs are at record levels and growing. He explained that while certain areas like PCA and restructuring remain active, a broader market recovery depends on reduced volatility and increased certainty. Weinberg noted that clients are prepared to act and the firm is seeing deal pauses rather than cancellations.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked about the M&A environment for large deals given potential regulatory changes, and later followed up on the firm's capital position, questioning the reason for the $350 million year-over-year cash build and plans for excess capital.

Answer

On M&A, CEO John Weinberg expressed optimism, stating the backlog for large deals is strengthening and that management teams are actively looking to do deals. On capital, an executive (misidentified in the transcript) noted the healthy cash build, highlighted the $591 million returned to shareholders in 2024, and reiterated the commitment to repurchasing shares to offset RSU dilution, expecting to do so again in 2025.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked about the growth profile of the Private Capital Advisory (PCA) business, questioning its capacity for further growth and whether it requires additional talent to expand.

Answer

CEO John Weinberg described the outlook for the PCA business as 'up and into the right,' stating it is a growing and strengthening area. He emphasized the increasing synergy between PCA, the private funds group, and M&A advisory, which provides a comprehensive service to sponsor clients. He noted that key products like continuity funds and LP stake sales continue to see strong backlogs and that the business is positioned for continued growth.

Devin Ryan asked about the outlook for the Restructuring business, including the type of activity seen (amend/extend vs. comprehensive liability management, in-court), and its sustainability over the next 12-18 months amidst accelerating M&A. He also inquired about the firm's ability to drive operating leverage from strategic advisory investments and proof points of platform maturation.

Answer

Paul Taubman, Chairman and CEO, explained that PJT Partners is in a multi-year period of elevated restructuring activity driven by historical low interest rates, technological disruption, and concentrated industry stress, expecting continued robust liability management and restructuring. Regarding operating leverage, Mr. Taubman highlighted record productivity for strategic advisory partners in 2025 and a nearly 75% increase in firm-wide revenues from 2021 to 2025 as evidence of returns from sustained investment.

Devin Ryan asked about the outlook for the Restructuring business, including the type of activity observed (amend and extend, comprehensive Liability Management, in-court), and expectations for its growth over the next 12-18 months, especially if M&A activity normalizes. He also inquired about the firm's ability to drive operating leverage from platform maturation and investments, seeking proof points and an understanding of the magnitude of operating leverage.

Answer

Paul Taubman, Chairman and CEO of PJT Partners, explained that the firm is in a multi-year period of elevated restructuring activity due to normalized interest rates, technological disruption, and concentrated stress in certain industries, even with a constructive macroeconomic environment. He expects robust Liability Management and restructuring to continue, with early signs of growth, as PJT broadens its footprint. Regarding operating leverage, Mr. Taubman noted that Strategic Advisory partners were highly productive in 2025, and while investment pace can mask productivity, firm-wide revenues increased nearly 75% from 2021 to 2025, demonstrating returns on investment.

Devin Ryan asked about the Restructuring outlook, specifically how PJT Partners' performance compares to the broader macro backdrop and if the firm is gaining market share. He also inquired about partner productivity, particularly in Strategic Advisory, and the potential for revenue per partner.

Answer

Paul Taubman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, explained that Restructuring activity remains elevated due to a less accommodative macro environment, higher debt, and concentrated stress in certain industries. He highlighted PJT's growth pillars in Restructuring, including sponsor client penetration, international expansion, and industry footprint development. Regarding partner productivity, Mr. Taubman stated that the firm focuses on hiring 'difference makers' rather than a specific revenue per partner number, noting that adding talent would initially lower the average. He expressed confidence in significant future upside as various franchises mature.

Devin Ryan of Citizens inquired about the restructuring outlook, specifically PJT Partners' performance relative to the broader macroeconomic environment and its ability to maintain or gain market share. He also asked about partner productivity potential, including a reasonable revenue per partner target for strategic advisory.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paul Taubman stated that PJT Partners does not see a diminution in restructuring activity, operating at elevated levels due to a less constructive macro environment, higher debt, and increased disruption. He highlighted growth pillars like sponsor client penetration, international expansion, and industry footprint. Regarding partner productivity, Mr. Taubman emphasized hiring "difference makers" over specific revenue targets, noting that the firm has not yet reached maximum levels due to partially built systems and ongoing growth initiatives.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP asked about the network effects being realized from the firm's growth, inquiring where PJT is seeing the most significant benefits from scaling its industry groups and geographies. He also asked for an update on initiatives to expand the restructuring practice internationally.

Answer

Paul Taubman, Founder, Chairman & CEO, stated that network effects are evident 'every day' through collaboration across geographies, industries, and client touchpoints, though he believes the firm is still in its 'early days' of realizing its full potential. Regarding international restructuring, he highlighted significant opportunities to grow the liability management practice in Europe, the Gulf Region, and Asia by leveraging the firm's expanding strategic advisory footprint and connectivity in those regions, with the potential to make the non-U.S. practice 'multiples the size of what it is today'.

Devin Ryan inquired about PJT Partners' record partner productivity in 2024, asking for an assessment of the potential upside in each business segment, particularly Strategic Advisory. He also asked for an outlook on the compensation ratio for 2025, including factors like deferrals and the relationship between revenue and compensation expense growth.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paul Taubman explained that while it's hard to set a dollar target for productivity, the potential is unequivocally higher, with the greatest upside in the less mature Strategic Advisory business. He stated that the firm is better positioned today than a year ago due to an expanded footprint and brand recognition. On compensation, Mr. Taubman reiterated expectations for meaningful comp leverage beginning in 2025, viewing it as the result of a multiyear investment in talent that is now beginning to mature. CFO Helen Meates added that 2024 deferral rates were below average, while 2023's were above average.

Devin Ryan inquired about the productivity capacity of the Strategic Advisory business given its significant headcount growth, and asked for a follow-up on the pace of new mandates in the restructuring business.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Paul Taubman explained that the firm does not manage to a specific revenue-per-partner metric due to variable factors, but he expects meaningfully more productivity starting in 2025 as the more built-out platform matures. On restructuring, he reiterated his view of a long-tailed cycle, noting that despite recent rate cuts, long-term rates remain high and there has been no material change in the onboarding of new clients, maintaining a constructive outlook for 2025.

Devin Ryan questioned Galaxy Digital's strategic positioning amidst the blurring lines between crypto and traditional finance, its competitive moats, and its desired role as more assets become tokenized and large banks enter the space.

Answer

CEO Mike Novogratz outlined Galaxy's focus on winning in credit, anticipating an explosion in on-chain credit, and infrastructure, providing staking and wallet solutions for financial market players. He envisions a future with on-chain bank accounts and lending, emphasizing Galaxy's role in leveraging its domain expertise to assist TradFi players while expanding into new market segments.

Devin Ryan inquired about Galaxy Digital's strategic positioning as the lines between crypto and traditional finance blur, focusing on the company's competitive moats and its desired role as more assets become tokenized and large banks increase their involvement.

Answer

CEO Mike Novogratz highlighted Galaxy Digital's focus on winning in two key areas: credit, anticipating an explosion in the on-chain credit world, and infrastructure, providing staking and wallet solutions for banks, fincos, and neobanks. He emphasized using Galaxy's domain expertise to assist traditional finance players entering the market.

Devin Ryan of Citi asked about Galaxy's perceived role as traditional finance moves on-chain and the outlook for its investment banking team amid growing crypto capital markets and M&A activity.

Answer

Founder, CEO & Director Michael Novogratz stated that Galaxy is positioning its infrastructure package, including tokenization and wallet services, to be part of the solution. President & CIO Christopher Ferraro added that the M&A pipeline is the largest it has ever been, with numerous nine-figure deals, and the team is investing in talent and capabilities for a future on-chain capital markets business.

Devin Ryan asked for insights into the enterprise channel, specifically the Prudential integration, seeking proof points on acceleration and growth, how it positions LPL for more in the insurance channel, and if other parties are showing interest.

Answer

CEO Rich Steinmeier highlighted Prudential's strong performance, noting their advisor headcount growth accelerated 9% year-to-date and they added roughly $3 billion in NNA in Q4. He described the partnership as a 'signature event' akin to the M&T Bank collaboration, positioning LPL well to work with other insurance firms. He confirmed that a number of firms have begun exploratory and more progressed conversations.

Devin Ryan inquired about the learnings and proof points from the Prudential integration in the enterprise channel, including growth acceleration, and how it positions LPL for future partnerships in the insurance channel.

Answer

CEO Rich Steinmeier highlighted Prudential's reported 9% year-to-date advisor headcount growth and approximately $3 billion in net new assets in Q4 2025, attributing success to Prudential's strong wealth franchise, sales infrastructure, and leadership. He noted that this partnership, akin to the M&T Bank success, is generating exploratory conversations with other firms, despite initial trepidation.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP asked about reports of Commonwealth advisors setting up their own RIAs, questioning what this means for LPL and whether these advisors are part of the 10% expected attrition or if LPL can still retain them.

Answer

CEO Rich Steinmeier acknowledged that advisors are exploring all options, including forming their own RIAs, but emphasized that many underestimate the operational and regulatory complexities. He stated that LPL can support these advisors whether they form an RIA or join LPL's corporate model, and that this dynamic is already factored into the confident 90% retention target. He noted that staying with LPL is the only way for them to retain the unique Commonwealth experience.

Devin Ryan of Piper Sandler inquired about the Commonwealth Financial Network acquisition, seeking details on the progress of adviser conversations, how financial packages compare to initial models, and the reaction from both existing LPL advisers and other advisers in the market.

Answer

Executive Matthew Audette stated that the integration effort is progressing in line with expectations and tracking towards the 90% retention target. He emphasized that LPL is committed to preserving the Commonwealth community, culture, and brand while enhancing the platform with LPL's technology and capabilities. Audette also noted that existing LPL advisers have been overwhelmingly supportive of the combination, viewing it as a positive for the entire ecosystem.

Devin Ryan of JMP Securities asked about the Prudential integration, focusing on which new capabilities are resonating most, the expected growth trajectory of Prudential advisors, and whether the partnership is a catalyst for more enterprise-level conversations.

Answer

Executive Richard Steinmeier highlighted the success of the simplified, integrated platform which replaces multiple vendors and significantly lowers not-in-good-order (NIGO) rates. He suggested Prudential advisors might grow faster due to institutional lead generation and confirmed the successful delivery has spurred inbound calls from other potential enterprise partners.

Devin Ryan inquired about the productivity potential of Lazard's externally hired Managing Directors relative to the blended average and how mix shifts in business segments might influence productivity. He also asked about the strategic impact of AI investments, specifically if they will be table stakes or drive market differentiation, and sought tangible examples of success.

Answer

CEO and Chairman Peter Orszag noted that new MDs are ramping faster due to improved diligence, and the normalization of new MD share will further boost productivity. He clarified that while US productivity is generally higher due to fee levels, there's no massive difference between M&A and non-M&A bankers. Regarding AI, he believes Lazard is at the forefront, aiming to stay ahead, citing examples like 'Contextual Alpha' terminology, AI-driven daily briefings, and enhanced meeting preparation, expecting it to differentiate by fostering curiosity, personal relationships, and operational efficiencies.

Devin Ryan asked about Managing Director productivity, specifically the underwriting of external hires, their ramp-up speed, and how mix shifts in businesses like private capital or restructuring might affect productivity trajectories. He also inquired about Lazard's AI investments, whether they represent a market lead or table stakes, and tangible areas of success or differentiation.

Answer

CEO and Chairman Peter Orszag noted improved diligence for new Managing Directors (MDs) leading to faster ramp-ups, and highlighted a 'coiled spring effect' as the share of new MDs normalizes. He clarified that while there's no material productivity difference between non-M&A and M&A bankers, productivity tends to be lower outside the U.S. due to fee levels. Regarding AI, Peter Orszag believes Lazard is at the forefront, aiming to stay ahead, citing examples like the 'Contextual Alpha' terminology, AI-assisted daily briefings, and board meeting preparation. He emphasized AI's role in enabling higher-value work, fostering curiosity, and enhancing client relationships and back-office efficiencies.

Devin Ryan from Citizens JMP asked for more detail on the advisory outlook, the trajectory of the M&A recovery, and whether uncertainties like tariffs are still weighing on sentiment. He also inquired about the drivers of net inflows in Asset Management, specifically distribution momentum and the status of the unfunded mandate backlog.

Answer

Peter Orszag, CEO & Chairman, explained that Lazard's advisory business is now more diversified, with non-M&A activities comprising 40% of revenue. He described the M&A environment as 'increasingly constructive' as headwinds from tariffs and regulation resolve, leading to an acceleration in client dialogue. For Asset Management, he noted the unfunded mandate backlog is higher than at the start of the year, attributing the positive net flows to sales team enhancements, clearer accountability, and strong performance in key strategies like global and emerging market equity.

Devin Ryan inquired about the significance of the $10 billion in unfunded Asset Management mandates, the drivers of this success, and the potential for future growth. He also asked for the M&A outlook in Europe compared to the U.S.

Answer

CEO Peter Orszag stated the $10 billion in mandates is "materially higher" than in recent years, driven by investments in the platform, new portfolio managers, and a renewed sales focus. Evan Russo, CEO of Asset Management, added that stronger client interest is seen across Quant, Japan, credit, and emerging markets. Regarding Europe, Orszag noted that despite a weaker macro backdrop, Lazard had a record advisory revenue year in 2024, and he sees continued European interest in U.S. M&A, which benefits Lazard's unique position.

Devin Ryan inquired about the $10 billion in won-but-not-yet-funded mandates in Asset Management, asking for historical context and the specific strategic changes driving these wins. He also asked for a comparative outlook on M&A activity in Europe versus the U.S.

Answer

CEO Peter Orszag stated the $10 billion mandate pipeline is 'materially higher' than in recent years, driven by investments in the platform, new talent, and a focused sales effort. Evan Russo, CEO of Asset Management, added that client interest is broadening beyond large-cap U.S. growth stocks, benefiting Lazard's international and value strategies. Regarding Europe, Mr. Orszag noted that M&A activity is not perfectly correlated with the macroeconomic backdrop, citing Lazard's record 2024 revenue in the region, and highlighted a growing trend of European companies pursuing U.S. acquisitions.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked about the factors driving Lazard's strong Advisory revenue recovery compared to peers and how to conceptualize a 'normalized' level of business. He also inquired about the philosophy of balancing long-term investments in Asset Management with near-term earnings.

Answer

CEO Peter Orszag attributed the outperformance to Lazard's significant upside potential, deep U.S. and European roots, and a new, robust ecosystem for serving private capital clients, calling it an 'inflection point'. On Asset Management, he outlined a three-part strategy: investing in core and specialty strategies (e.g., active ETFs, quant) and pursuing inorganic growth in areas like wealth management. Evan Russo, CEO of Asset Management, provided further details on the active ETF build-out and a new private equity joint venture.

Devin Ryan asked about the rate of change in sponsor engagement, specifically whether it's a steady build or accelerating, given pressures on sponsors to return capital and deploy dry powder. He also asked if this trend is broad-based across verticals or targeted. Additionally, he inquired about the firm's white space opportunities, particularly in healthcare and energy, and where they see the biggest potential for adding resources and network effects.

Answer

CEO Scott Adelson noted that sponsor engagement has been consistently improving quarter-by-quarter, accelerating after the beginning of the year, and is broad-based across sectors, with underperforming sectors showing stronger comebacks. He emphasized that white space opportunities exist everywhere across every sector (200+ subsectors and growing), product lines (like Capital Solutions), and geographies, indicating a 'very early innings' stage for growth. Managing Director Lindsey Alley highlighted strong activity after Labor Day and New Year's.

Devin Ryan inquired about the rate of change in sponsor engagement, asking if it's a steady build or accelerating, and whether this trend is broad-based across verticals. He also asked about the firm's white space opportunities, specifically in sectors like healthcare and energy, and where additional resources could generate significant network effects.

Answer

Scott Adelson, CEO, indicated that sponsor engagement has been consistently improving quarter-by-quarter, accelerating significantly after the new year, and is broad-based across sectors, with underperforming sectors showing stronger rebounds. He emphasized that white space opportunities exist across every sector, product line, and geography, with significant room to grow beyond the current 200 subsectors.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP inquired about the momentum in the Corporate Finance business, asking if client sentiment has improved over the last three months and how backlogs are refilling. He also sought color on which sectors are seeing the fastest recovery.

Answer

CEO Scott Adelson stated that the market is improving quarter-by-quarter, though not always month-by-month, as clients adapt to the new environment. CFO J. Lindsey Alley noted that while they avoid specific backlog commentary, performance is solid across sectors, with the U.S. currently outpacing a slower EMEA region.

Devin Ryan asked for details on the Capital Solutions business, including its contribution, key drivers like LP liquidity needs and continuation funds, and its growth outlook. He also inquired about the restructuring business's capacity to handle a more stressed macro environment compared to past cycles.

Answer

CEO Scott Adelson described the Capital Solutions group as a significant and growing part of the business, well-positioned to meet diverse capital needs in the current market. CFO J. Alley added that the financial sponsor community remains roughly 50% of the client base. Regarding restructuring capacity, Alley explained that there is 'plenty of capacity,' noting that revenue per MD during the Great Recession was 40% higher than current levels, as stressed environments lead to larger, higher-fee deals rather than just a linear increase in transaction volume.

Devin Ryan from Citizens JMP asked about the drivers behind increasing deal sizes and fees in Corporate Finance and requested an update on the firm's private capital financing business.

Answer

CEO Scott Adelson confirmed that the increase in deal and fee size is a long-term trend driven by multiple factors, while stressing the firm's focus remains on the mid-cap space. Regarding private capital, Adelson described it as a growing area that is 'here to stay,' providing a broader set of solutions for sponsors, and noted Houlihan Lokey is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.

Devin Ryan asked about the exceptional growth in securities-based loans (SBLs), seeking to understand drivers beyond lower interest rates and the firm's capacity and penetration room for customers in this area.

Answer

Paul Shoukry, CEO of Raymond James Financial, attributed the SBL growth to lower rates, enhanced education, improved technology tools, and successful recruiting of advisors who bring substantial SBL balances. He expressed optimism for SBLs as a flexible and beneficial product for clients, with significant long-term potential.

Devin Ryan inquired about the 'off the charts' securities-based loan (SBL) growth, seeking insights into drivers beyond lower interest rates, capacity, and potential for further customer penetration over the next year.

Answer

CEO Paul Shoukry attributed the phenomenal SBL growth to lower rates, enhanced education, technology tools, and recruiting efforts (advisors bringing substantial SBL balances). He expressed optimism for long-term SBL usage, highlighting its flexibility compared to other borrowing solutions and growing client interest as awareness increases.

Devin Ryan asked about the outlook for loan growth, particularly securities-based loans (SBLs), residential mortgages, and C&I loans, in a lower interest rate environment. He also sought clarification on the drivers of PCG brokerage strength and the specific components contributing to the strong debt underwriting results, including private placements and public finance activity.

Answer

CEO Paul Shoukry stated that SBLs are expected to remain the highest growth category, potentially accelerating with lower rates, and that the firm plans to shift more of its balance sheet to support the Private Client Group through SBLs and residential mortgages. CFO Butch Oorlog attributed PCG brokerage strength to a spike in insurance and annuity products, driven by clients locking in pricing ahead of anticipated rate cuts. He noted significant growth in both public and private debt underwriting, with a couple of large private transactions contributing to the increase, alongside enhanced capacity in public finance due to recent senior hires.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP questioned the drivers behind the decline in client cash balances and inquired about the strategic rationale for the recent investment in Canada's F&Z, asking if similar strategic investments could become more common.

Answer

CFO Butch Oorlog attributed the quarterly cash decline to seasonal tax payments, highlighting a $1 billion rebound in June. CEO Paul Shoukry added that sweep balances are stable year-over-year. Regarding Canada, Shoukry affirmed the market's importance and stated the investment enhances their platform, adding that the firm remains open to acquisitions that meet its strict cultural, strategic, and financial criteria.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP questioned the drivers behind the decline in client cash balances and the strategy for the recently announced investment in the firm's Canadian wealth management infrastructure.

Answer

CFO Butch Oorlog attributed the cash decline to seasonal factors like tax payments, noting a $1 billion rebound in June. CEO Paul Shoukry affirmed the firm's commitment to the Canadian market, highlighting the investment as part of an ongoing effort to enhance resources and capabilities for advisors there, and noted the firm remains open to acquisitions in Canada.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about the adviser recruiting backdrop, specifically the impact of competitor M&A and recent market volatility on the pipeline. He also sought clarification on comments regarding a potential Q3 loan loss provision related to tariffs.

Answer

CEO Paul Shoukry stated that Raymond James's recruiting momentum is consistently strong due to its value proposition, but acknowledged that competitor M&A creates opportunities. He and CFO Jonathan Oorlog clarified that the provision comment was purely about accounting timing for new macroeconomic data, not an indicator of a known credit issue in the loan book.

Devin Ryan asked about the recruiting backdrop, specifically how much of the pipeline is from M&A-affected firms and if market volatility is impacting advisers' willingness to move. He also sought clarification on comments about the loan loss provision and potential tariff impacts.

Answer

CEO Paul Shoukry stated that recruiting momentum is consistently strong but acknowledged that M&A at other firms creates a catalyst for adviser movement. CFO Jonathan Oorlog and CEO Paul Shoukry clarified that comments on the loan provision were about accounting timing, explaining that any economic impacts from April's volatility would be reflected in Q3's CECL model, not a specific current credit issue.

Devin Ryan asked about Raymond James's capital management strategy, questioning the plan for its approximately $4 billion in excess capital and whether the 13% Tier 1 leverage ratio could be reduced to its 10% target without acquisitions. He also inquired about the potential for the Capital Markets segment's margin to recover to its prior peak of over 20%.

Answer

President Paul Shoukry reiterated that the 10% Tier 1 ratio remains the target. He outlined capital priorities as organic growth, recruiting, and growing the bank's balance sheet, particularly with securities-based loans. Shoukry noted that while the firm is 'front-footed' on M&A, the desire to remain ready for a potential deal has led to a deceleration in share buybacks. Regarding Capital Markets margins, he explained that a return to over 20% would require strong performance from both the equities and fixed income businesses simultaneously, which is atypical. He suggested a 15-20% margin is a more reasonable expectation over the cycle.

Devin Ryan with Citizens JMP Securities LLC sought Chairman and CEO Ronald J. Kruszewski's perspective on the evolving mix of financial advisors between employee and independent RIA models, considering recent industry trends. He also asked CFO James M. Marischen for a detailed breakdown of the net interest income guidance, including the sources and yield differentials of the projected $4 billion loan growth, potential upside scenarios, and expectations for liability funding, particularly sweep cash balances.

Answer

Chairman and CEO, Ronald J. Kruszewski, expressed his view that the growth in the independent advisor channel is decelerating due to challenges with private equity funding models and the impact of declining interest rates on cash-side economics, suggesting a shift back towards the employee model. CFO, James M. Marischen, elaborated on the net interest income guidance, stating that the $4 billion loan growth is expected from flow banking (with higher yields), mortgages, securities-based lending, selective commercial lending, and the venture group. He noted the NII guide assumes linear growth, funding primarily with Treasury deposits, and a net interest margin of approximately 320 basis points. Mr. Marischen also mentioned an anticipated cash outflow during tax season followed by a build later in the year, highlighting record growth in venture and other treasury deposits in Q4.

Devin Ryan asked for Ron Kruszewski's perspective on the future mix of financial advisors between employee and independent RIA channels, whether an equilibrium is being reached, and the implications of accelerating net new assets within leading employee firms. He also asked Jim Marischen about the net interest income guide, the sources and yield differentials for the projected $4 billion in loan growth, potential upside to this growth, and expectations for the liability side, including sweep cash.

Answer

Ronald J. Kruszewski (Chairman and CEO, Stifel Financial) suggested a general slowing of the independent channel's growth due to private equity dynamics (IRRs, paper vs. cash) and rate cuts impacting economics, leading more advisors to the employee model. James M. Marischen (CFO, Stifel Financial) outlined loan growth sources including flow banking, mortgage, securities-based lending, commercial lending, and venture group support, noting higher yields for flow banking. He explained the NII guide assumes linear growth, funding with Treasury deposits, and a 320 basis point net interest margin. Marischen also mentioned expected cash outflows during tax season, a build later in the year, and record growth in venture and other treasury deposits in Q4.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP inquired about the revenue potential for Stifel's KBW unit amid an expected acceleration in bank M&A and the drivers behind the firm's strong financial advisor recruiting and net new asset growth.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Ronald Kruszewski stated that the environment for bank M&A has significantly improved due to favorable economic, rate, and regulatory shifts, positioning the KBW Stifel brand for continued success. Regarding wealth management, Kruszewski noted that strong recruiting of high-end advisor teams is a leading indicator of future net new asset growth, and he is very pleased with the current momentum.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about Stifel's adviser recruiting pipeline and expectations for 2025, considering recent industry M&A and market volatility. He also asked about the softness in wealth management commissions during the first quarter and the expected trajectory for the remainder of the year.

Answer

CEO Ronald Kruszewski expressed satisfaction with recruiting, noting a focus on attracting high-productivity teams and that volatile markets can spur activity. CFO James Marischen added that the B. Riley transaction would contribute 36 advisers and $4 billion in AUM. Regarding commissions, Marischen attributed the Q1 softness to a combination of trailing commissions and limited client activity, but noted that client engagement has started to pick up since the quarter's end.

Devin Ryan asked whether the 2025 guidance for the institutional segment reflects a fully normalized environment or if there is potential for further upside, and also inquired about the primary sources of loan demand.

Answer

CEO Ron Kruszewski stated the guidance is conservative and that while a normalized institutional margin is around 20%, a favorable M&A and regulatory environment could allow the firm to exceed its forecast. CFO Jim Marischen added that achieving efficiencies in international operations, like the Bryan Garnier acquisition, could provide further upside. Marischen identified fund banking, venture lending, and retail lending (mortgages and securities-based loans) as the key drivers for loan demand in 2025.

Devin Ryan inquired about the drivers of Stifel's strong loan growth, the sustainability of net interest income (NII) growth amid potential rate cuts, and the outlook for the fixed income brokerage business.

Answer

CEO Ron Kruszewski and CFO James Marischen explained that the bank is now relatively insensitive to rate changes and sees a significant opportunity to deploy excess capital into balance sheet growth for attractive risk-adjusted returns. Marischen noted they have over $3 billion in sweep deposits to fund this growth. Regarding fixed income, Kruszewski attributed some Q3 softness to seasonality and expressed optimism for the business as normalizing rates should increase client activity.

Devin Ryan inquired about Schwab's balance sheet strategy following supplemental funding normalization, specifically regarding the next phase of asset remixing and the potential for the securities portfolio to grow again, including timing, size, and duration.

Answer

CFO Mike Verdeschi explained that the focus shifts to asset-side growth, particularly strong lending momentum in 2026 for bank products and margin lending. He noted that as proceeds become available, Schwab has the opportunity to reinvest in the securities portfolio, primarily in short-dated, highly liquid U.S. Treasuries, maintaining an overall portfolio duration in the two- to four-year range.

Devin Ryan inquired about Schwab's balance sheet strategy following supplemental funding normalization, specifically asking about the next phase of asset remixing, potential growth of the securities portfolio, and its timing, size, and duration.

Answer

CFO Mike Verdeschi explained that the focus shifts to the asset side, anticipating continued strong lending momentum in 2026 for both bank products and margin lending. He noted that as proceeds become available, Schwab has the opportunity to reinvest in a highly liquid securities portfolio, primarily in short-dated U.S. Treasuries and high-quality asset-backed securities, maintaining an overall portfolio duration in the two- to four-year range.

Devin Ryan asked for Morgan Stanley's outlook on the institutional trading wallet for 2026, following two strong years, and how secular dynamics compare to cyclical factors in assessing the trajectory of the wallet.

Answer

Ted Pick, Chairman and CEO of Morgan Stanley, expressed optimism for capital markets, likening it to the 'third inning,' driven by global market equitization, consolidation, sponsor activity, and private companies going public. He highlighted the firm's global footprint, full-service capabilities, and growth in derivatives, suggesting the wallet could grow 5-10% annually with Morgan Stanley gaining share.

Devin Ryan inquired about the outlook for institutional trading in 2026, following two years of strong growth, and asked for insights into the trajectory of the wallet, considering both secular and cyclical dynamics.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Ted Pick expressed optimism, describing the capital markets business as being in the 'third inning' due to tailwinds like the equitization of global markets, industry consolidation, sponsors unlocking assets, and private companies going public. He also noted the positive impact of higher rates, foreign exchange trading, and the institutionalization of private credit, projecting wallet growth of 5-10% per annum.

Devin Ryan inquired about the equities trading results, specifically the growth function in financing relative to intermediation over recent years, the current mix, and how it has evolved to build a higher base.

Answer

CFO Sharon Yeshaya noted record financing balances benefiting from rising markets and client/wallet share gains, while transactional activity is volume-driven. Chairman and CEO Ted Pick added that financing revenues are linked to asset prices. He highlighted the global nature of the business, strong derivatives performance, and a barbell approach combining M-SET with high-touch research/sales to monetize market dispersion.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP asked for Morgan Stanley's perspective on the business opportunity in stablecoins and asset tokenization as regulatory clarity emerges. He also sought color on the Q2 trading environment and momentum heading into Q3.

Answer

EVP & CFO Sharon Yeshaya stated that while the firm is closely monitoring the landscape for stablecoins and tokenization, it is too early to determine the specific impact. Regarding trading, she noted strong client repositioning across both institutional and retail. Chairman & CEO Ted Pick highlighted the global strength of the equities franchise, citing a record quarter in EMEA, and the consistent durability of the fixed income business.

Devin Ryan asked about the strategy for the Investment Management segment, particularly in high-growth areas like private equity and private credit, and inquired about the firm's appetite for acquisitions to accelerate growth in this area.

Answer

Executive Sharon Yeshaya emphasized the focus on creating a diversified platform and reaping the synergies from the Eaton Vance acquisition, particularly in growing Parametric on the retail side and expanding international distribution for fixed income products. She stated that these synergies are already working but there is more to do. While not commenting directly on M&A appetite, she affirmed the firm will participate in secular growth trends like private credit and infrastructure as they move forward.

Devin Ryan asked about the second-order impacts of lower interest rates on the Wealth Management business, such as on lending. He also sought more detail on the programs driving the notable contribution from new clients to net new assets.

Answer

CFO Sharon Yeshaya noted that lower rates should spur lending activity, particularly in refinancing and securities-based loans (SBLs), which have been muted. She attributed the new client growth to successful 'human referrals' from the firm's stock plan business and call centers, where technology and AI are used to effectively match prospects with financial advisers, a program that has doubled year-to-date.

Devin Ryan asked for details on the recent initiative that led to severance charges and the broader outlook for expense management. He also questioned whether a rebound in the M&A and new issue markets requires a sharp recovery in asset prices or simply market stability.

Answer

CEO Ted Pick explained that a 3% headcount reduction (ex-FAs) followed a rigorous performance review and that the firm remains disciplined on expenses while investing in growth areas like AI. On the market outlook, he stated that stability is more important than valuation for a rebound, as most strategic transactions are based on comparative value and long-term priorities, suggesting the IPO window will reopen once uncertainty is priced in.

Devin Ryan with Citizens Bank inquired about the momentum behind Ethereum's growth, particularly with Linea, and the attributes driving demand from partners like SWIFT. He also asked about the pipeline for Linea, including use cases, and SharpLink's strategy for ETH staking, enhanced yield generation, and the incremental spread expected above standard staking yields in 2026.

Answer

Joseph Lubin, Chairman of SharpLink, explained that institutional adoption is accelerating, highlighting Linea's 100% compatibility with Ethereum Layer 1, its use of Ether for fees, and its burning mechanism. He mentioned the SWIFT project's progress and other systemically important financial institutions building on Ethereum technology. Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO, stated SharpLink stakes nearly 100% of its ETH for risk-adjusted yield, citing the Linea/ConsenSys collaboration for enhanced yield without increased risk, and emphasized an institutional approach to staking.

Devin Ryan asked about the attributes driving demand for Linea, ConsenSys' Layer 2 Ethereum technology, from partners like SWIFT, and the pipeline for new use cases. He also inquired about SharpLink's intermediate-term strategy for ETH staking, the percentage of ETH to be staked versus deployed for enhanced yield, and the incremental spread the team expects to generate above standard staking yields.

Answer

Joseph Lubin, Chairman of SharpLink Gaming, explained that institutional adoption is accelerating due to digital assets and decentralization, with Ethereum's scaling roadmap and Layer 2 solutions like Linea (100% compatible with Ethereum Layer 1, burning ETH for fees) driving demand. He mentioned ongoing projects with SWIFT, DTCC, major stock exchanges, and banks. Joseph Chalom, Co-CEO, stated SharpLink's commitment to staking nearly 100% of its ETH for risk-adjusted yield, highlighting a $200 million ETH deployment on Linea with partners for enhanced yield without increased risk, a benefit not available to individual investors or passive ETFs.

Asked about strategies for generating incremental yield from ETH beyond basic staking and the drivers behind the company's long-term ETH valuation targets.

Answer

The company plans to explore a full range of yield strategies (native staking, liquid staking, restaking, DeFi) in a risk-managed way, leveraging its partnership with Consensus. The long-term ETH valuation is driven by increasing institutional adoption, developer activity, and Ethereum's establishment as the foundational 'Trustware' layer for a new decentralized economy.

Devin Ryan asked about the strategy for activating ETH to generate incremental yield beyond standard staking and inquired about the key drivers behind the company's long-term ETH valuation targets of $15,000 to $40,000.

Answer

Co-CEO Joseph Chalom explained that the company is initially focused on native and liquid staking but plans to expand into restaking and DeFi yields in a risk-managed way to create a compounding effect. Chairman Joseph Lubin added that Ethereum is at a 'mainstream moment' with growing institutional adoption and legislative support, which will drive value as the world's financial applications increasingly build on its rails.

Devin Ryan asked about the catalysts and timeline for converting the CPN pipeline into active users, as well as the economics of partnerships and potential cost implications of scaling. He also inquired if demand-side feedback is influencing Circle's product roadmap and about current M&A conversations or interest.

Answer

CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that catalysts for CPN conversion include firms seeking capital efficiency, cost reduction, and improved user experience for cross-border money movement. He emphasized focusing on high-quality participants to leverage Metcalfe's law. CFO Jeremy Fox-Geen noted that scaling CPN will incur costs, but Circle's scalable, AI-driven infrastructure aims for cost-efficiency. Allaire added that demand for strong direct liquidity and enterprise-grade features like deterministic settlement and low transaction costs (offered by Arc) are influencing the product roadmap. Fox-Geen reiterated that M&A is used to accelerate core offerings, not for diversification.

Devin Ryan asked about the catalysts for converting the CPN pipeline into active users, the timeline for this conversion, and the partnership economics. He also inquired about potential cost increases due to scaling the pipeline, insights from demand influencing the product roadmap, and current M&A conversations or interest.

Answer

Jeremy Allaire, Co-Founder, CEO, and Chairman, highlighted the focus on securing quality flows from originators to destinations, driven by firms seeking speed, capital efficiency, and cost efficiency of stablecoin infrastructure. He noted that business motivators include freeing up capital, reducing collateral, and improving user experience. Jeremy Fox-Geen, CFO, confirmed that costs would increase with network growth but would remain within the overall cost envelope due to scalable, AI-driven infrastructure. Mr. Allaire added that demand insights emphasize the need for strong direct liquidity and technologies like ARK to simplify deployment for traditional financial institutions. Mr. Fox-Geen stated that M&A is used to accelerate core offerings, not for diversification, with three deals closed this year.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about the current mix and timing of Perella Weinberg's record pipeline, specifically asking if it's more geared towards non-M&A activities or traditional M&A, and whether revenue contributions are expected in Q4 2025 or primarily in 2026. He also asked about the ramp-up of the 25 new senior bankers and the Devon Park acquisition, and the firm's recruiting momentum for 2026.

Answer

CEO Andrew Bednar stated that while the recent mix leaned towards non-traditional M&A (liability management, capital-raising), the current pipeline shows a significant increase in traditional M&A. He noted that 9 of the 25 new senior bankers are already contributing, with the remaining 16 (including Devon Park) expected to contribute meaningfully in 2026. Bednar highlighted Devon Park as a "game changer" providing non-linear growth and new product capabilities across 75 partners.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about the current mix of Perella Weinberg's pipeline, specifically whether it leans more towards non-M&A activities or traditional M&A, and the expected timing for these engagements to materialize, considering typical fourth-quarter seasonality versus a longer-term outlook for 2026. He also asked about the ramp-up of the 25 senior bankers hired in 2025 and the momentum for future recruiting.

Answer

CEO Andrew Bednar explained that while the past three quarters saw a mix leaning towards non-traditional M&A, the current pipeline shows a significant increase in traditional M&A business. He noted that predicting transaction timing is challenging but forward indicators like new business reviews and engagement letters are very positive and weighted towards traditional M&A. Regarding recruiting, Mr. Bednar stated that 9 of the 25 senior bankers added in 2025 are already on the platform and will contribute near-term, while the remaining 16 (including Devon Park) are expected to contribute significantly in 2026. He highlighted Devon Park as a "game-changer" due to its new product category and client base, enabling non-linear growth and synergy across the firm's 75 partners.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP inquired about Perella Weinberg's commentary on its gross fee backlog being at peak levels, the momentum in client engagement, the strategic rationale behind the Devon Park Advisors acquisition, and the firm's partner headcount.

Answer

CEO Andrew Bednar clarified that the firm's pipeline, which includes all engaged and likely-to-be-mandated activity, is at peak levels, distinct from the announced backlog. He noted that while conversion to announcement has been slow, client activity is extremely high and July showed a better cadence. Regarding the Devon Park acquisition, Bednar described it as a strategic and cultural fit that immediately expands their capabilities in the fast-growing GP-led secondaries market, addressing reverse inquiry from clients. He also stated the partner count was 64 at the end of June, is now 70, and is expected to reach at least 76 by year-end.

Devin Ryan inquired about the M&A environment, asking whether the recent slowdown is due to changing business outlooks or market volatility. He also asked for the contribution percentage from non-M&A businesses and whether the strength in restructuring is from a better environment or market share gains.

Answer

CEO Andrew Bednar explained that clients are pausing, not terminating, M&A plans due to broad uncertainty, similar to driving in fog, and he anticipates a sharp rebound once clarity improves. He noted that while the liability management business is performing very well due to both market conditions and growing brand strength, the firm does not break out revenue by business line.

Devin Ryan asked about the outlook for Perella Weinberg's M&A advisory business, particularly for large-scale deals post-election, and the growth prospects for the firm's non-M&A businesses.

Answer

CEO Andrew Bednar explained that conversations around large, transformative M&A deals have become more ambitious, signaling a market return despite a lag in announcements. He also highlighted that non-M&A businesses, like liability management and capital solutions, have tremendous growth opportunities and are no longer counter-cyclical to the M&A market, allowing both to thrive simultaneously.

Devin Ryan asked about the key drivers of Perella Weinberg's significant revenue outperformance relative to peers and the broader M&A market, and inquired about the firm's growth algorithm moving forward. He also asked for perspective on the contribution from non-M&A businesses like restructuring and liability management, and their potential for growth alongside an M&A recovery.

Answer

Andrew Bednar, Chief Executive Officer, attributed the outperformance to being a faster-growing firm, strong positioning with corporate clients, and a broader suite of services. He stated that while M&A is the primary growth driver, the firm's integrated, client-centric model means its restructuring and liability management services are also growing in tandem and contributing to success, though the firm does not track them as separate P&Ls.

Devin Ryan asked about the student loan opportunity, specifically how recent actions by the administration, such as potential government sales of student loan balances or changes to borrowing limits, might create a better market environment for SoFi.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto views these developments as very positive for SoFi. He stated that SoFi would explore acquiring government student loan portfolios if they are sold, seeing it as a significant customer acquisition and profit opportunity. He also noted that if the government reduces college borrowing limits, SoFi would be positioned to fill that gap with its in-school loan business, which is highly profitable and attractive, and anticipates innovation in student loan products beyond traditional four-year degrees due to technology and government actions.

Devin Ryan inquired about the student loan opportunity, specifically how actions by the current administration, such as the 'big beautiful bill' or potential government sale of student loan balances, might impact the market and SoFi's strategy.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto viewed all administration actions as positive for SoFi, expressing strong interest in potentially acquiring government student loan portfolios due to their customer acquisition and profit potential. He also highlighted SoFi's readiness to fill any gaps in federal offerings with its in-school loan business and anticipated innovation in new student loan types driven by technology and changing educational needs.

Devin Ryan from JMP Securities asked about the implications of declining forward Fed funds rate expectations on SoFi's deposit costs, deposit betas, and overall deposit growth strategy.

Answer

CEO Anthony Noto highlighted SoFi's competitive advantage from its bank charter, allowing it to offer a superior APY that non-bank competitors cannot match. CFO Chris Lapointe added that the company has operated with a 65-70% deposit beta and is at its long-term target of being 85-90% deposit-funded. They plan to grow deposits in line with loans but can be flexible given strong member demand.

Devin Ryan from Citizen JMP inquired about the potential revenue opportunity from eToro's new tokenized stock offering and the expected timeline for other asset classes to move on-chain.

Answer

CEO Yoni Assia described tokenization as a massive, long-term opportunity, citing a potential $100 trillion market over 20 years. For eToro, the benefits include expanding the investment universe and enabling 24/7 trading. He emphasized that regulatory clarity, such as Europe's MiCA framework, is a key catalyst for this transition.

Devin Ryan from Citizen JMP inquired about the potential revenue opportunity from tokenized stocks and the expected timeline for other asset classes to move on-chain, particularly those not currently available on eToro.

Answer

CEO Yoni Assia stated that tokenization is a significant, long-term process with the potential to bring $100 trillion of assets on-chain over 20 years. He identified key opportunities in expanding the number of assets on eToro (stocks, bonds, real estate) and enabling 24/7 trading. Assia noted that regulatory clarity, like Europe's MiCA regulation, is a critical catalyst for this expansion.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked for more detail on the 'Everything Exchange' concept, inquiring about the addressable market, Coinbase's potential roles as a liquidity hub and brokerage, its involvement in asset tokenization, and the expected timeline for launching tokenized equities.

Answer

CEO Brian Armstrong outlined a multi-faceted role for Coinbase, including operating the brokerage front-end, running centralized exchanges, and routing orders to decentralized exchanges. He highlighted a significant opportunity in helping clients with primary capital formation on-chain. While expressing strong commitment, he did not provide a specific timeline for tokenized equities, stating they are working to launch it in a trusted and compliant manner.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP sought more detail on the 'Everything Exchange' concept, asking about Coinbase's intended role—whether as a liquidity hub, brokerage, or tokenization service provider—the potential revenue streams, and the expected timeline for launching tokenized equities.

Answer

CEO Brian Armstrong explained that Coinbase aims to participate across the stack by owning the direct customer brokerage relationship, operating centralized exchanges, and routing orders to decentralized exchanges. He also noted growing inbound interest from companies seeking help with primary offerings and capital formation. Regarding a timeline for tokenized equities, Armstrong stated they are 'working hard on it' but emphasized a focus on building a trusted and compliant product without providing a specific launch date.

Devin Ryan from Citizens JMP asked about the momentum of traditional banks entering the crypto industry and how this trend could serve as a positive catalyst for Coinbase, either through partnerships or as a new customer segment.

Answer

CEO Brian Armstrong stated that he expects every major bank to eventually integrate crypto and that Coinbase is positioned to power their infrastructure through its 'crypto-as-a-service' offerings for custody, trading, and stablecoins. CFO Alesia Haas reinforced this by noting that Coinbase already serves major institutions like BlackRock and Stripe, positioning itself as the foundational backbone for traditional finance moving onchain.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about the long-term outlook for take rates in the international derivatives market, asking if they might increase as the business matures.

Answer

CFO Alesia Haas explained that the current priority is building liquidity and trading volume by offering incentives to market participants. She confirmed that over time, as Coinbase achieves its desired scale and market position, the fee structure will evolve and mature to be competitive with the market, implying they will not remain at the current introductory levels.

Devin Ryan asked for an early look at 2025 spending plans, inquiring about areas of investment and the expected relationship between expense growth and revenue growth.

Answer

CFO Alesia Haas stated that while no formal 2025 outlook was being provided, the company will maintain its focus on expense discipline. She indicated they will selectively increase headcount for growth opportunities and flex variable spending, such as marketing, to align with market conditions, ensuring a prudent approach to investment.

Devin Ryan inquired about the remaining benefits of the new fee model, the future trajectory of revenue per advance, the financial impact of moving receivables to Coastal Community Bank, and the rationale behind the new $3 monthly subscription fee.

Answer

CEO Jason Wilk and CFO & COO Kyle Beelman explained that while Q2 saw the full benefit of the new fee structure, future monetization will be driven by the new CashAI V5.5 model. Beelman detailed that the Coastal partnership would lower the cost of funds by 200 basis points and free up over $100M in capital, which will be used to build dry powder for M&A. Both executives confirmed that extensive testing of the new $3 subscription fee showed minimal impact on customer conversion or retention, making it accretive to lifetime value (LTV).

Devin Ryan asked about the total addressable market for ExtraCash given its member growth and whether larger advance sizes could reduce transaction frequency. He also inquired about strategies to deepen member relationships and drive more engagement with the Dave Card.

Answer

Executive Jason Wilk explained that the total addressable market remains vast at around 150 million people, with Dave only serving 2.5 million monthly transacting members. He clarified that larger advance sizes, tied to paycheck cycles, offer more flexibility for uses like rent without reducing frequency. Regarding the Dave Card, Wilk noted that growth is currently organic due to its synergy with ExtraCash, and the company plans to invest more resources to enhance cross-sell and direct deposit adoption.

Devin Ryan inquired about the new sponsor bank partnership, asking about its economics compared to the existing relationship and whether it enables new product launches. He also asked for details on the strategy to increase Dave Card spending and make it a more significant contributor to the business.

Answer

Executive Jason Wilk explained that the costs of the new sponsor bank partnership are comparable to the current one and that the new partner will be key for launching a new credit product next year. Regarding the Dave Card, Wilk stated that after focusing resources on ExtraCash, the company plans to allocate more to the card experience in 2025, including exploring rewards programs to drive adoption and top-of-wallet behavior, leveraging the company's strong overall economics.

Devin Ryan of Citizen JMP asked about the potential revenue impact from a recovery in bank M&A and the timing of that recovery. He also inquired about the progress and client connectivity of the Avidity private capital solutions business one year after its acquisition.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Chad Abraham responded that conditions for depository M&A are improving, with an increased pace of announcements. While some deals may close this year, he expects the larger financial impact to be felt next year. Regarding Avidity, he stated the acquisition has performed as hoped, enhancing senior-level client relationships that benefit the firm's debt advisory and M&A businesses, with cross-selling traction occurring quickly.

Devin Ryan inquired about the current M&A conditions for financial sponsor clients, asking whether the slowdown is due to seller reluctance amid market instability or underlying business performance issues. He also asked for the outlook on the depository M&A business and sought characterization of the municipal finance pipeline.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Chad Abraham explained that the M&A market is bifurcated, with some processes stalling in sectors like consumer products due to supply chain uncertainty, while domestic services businesses remain strong with available financing. He noted a more positive outlook for depository M&A, with deals announced in April potentially closing this year. President Debbra Schoneman added that the municipal finance pipeline is robust but its execution depends on market stabilization, particularly regarding rate volatility and fund flows.

Speaking on behalf of Devin Ryan, Brian asked about the growth opportunity in securitized products following a new MD hire and the broader evolution of the fixed income business. He also followed up on the 2025 compensation ratio guidance.

Answer

President Debbra Schoneman detailed a multi-part strategy for fixed income, including investing in talent for non-depository growth, building out the municipal franchise by leveraging the new issue business into the secondary market, and increasing electronic trading capabilities. Regarding the compensation ratio, Schoneman confirmed the previous guidance range remains fair, but the firm anticipates driving a 'modest decline' in the ratio as revenues grow, balanced against continued investment in talent.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked for an update on the Aviditi Advisors acquisition, including integration progress and future investment plans. He also inquired about the M&A backdrop, asking which sectors are recovering fastest and about potential catalysts like the election. Finally, he asked about the compensation ratio outlook for Q4 and 2025.

Answer

CEO Chad Abraham reported a strong start to the Aviditi integration with plans to invest further in its secondary advisory team. He noted broad-based advisory strength across most sectors, except for healthcare. CFO Kate Clune projected potential for incremental leverage on the comp ratio in Q4 and reiterated a normalized range of 61.5%-62.5% for 2025, revenue permitting.

Devin Ryan from Citizen JMP asked about expense management, acknowledging the impressive 56% adjusted EBITDA margin and inquiring about the commitment to keeping top-line growth ahead of expense growth in the future.

Answer

CFO Jason Warnick explained their strategy involves asking existing business lines to improve efficiency and keep cost growth in the low single digits, which frees up capital to invest in high-growth areas like new products and marketing. CEO Vlad Tenev added that early and aggressive investment in AI for engineering and customer service has been critical to scaling innovation while controlling operating expenses.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked about crypto engagement following a record fourth quarter, customer sentiment amid market pullbacks, and the company's urgency to expand its crypto offerings.

Answer

CEO Vladimir Tenev acknowledged the volatility in trading volumes but emphasized that Robinhood focuses on gaining market share. He confirmed the team is actively making improvements for traders, increasing selection, and developing smart exchange routing. He highlighted that the business is diversifying both outside of and within crypto to reduce reliance on transaction volumes.

Devin Ryan asked for an update on the RIA custody opportunity following the TradePMR acquisition announcement, including market reception and how Robinhood plans to differentiate its offering.

Answer

CEO Vladimir Tenev stated that Robinhood will tackle the advisory space aggressively. He explained the key differentiator is creating a two-sided marketplace: giving advisors access to Robinhood's large customer base and giving customers access to human advisors. This strategy is part of a larger vision to build the first truly multigenerational financial platform for the entire family.

Devin Ryan asked about interest rate sensitivity beyond the direct impact of Fed cuts, inquiring about potential offsets like accelerated margin utilization and upside in securities lending activity.

Answer

CFO Jason Warnick reaffirmed the previously stated sensitivity of roughly $40 million per 25 bps rate cut. He noted that margin balances have been growing nicely. For securities lending, he explained that while more customers have joined the program, lower rates on hard-to-borrow stocks have been a headwind. He reiterated his confidence in the company's 'naturally hedged' business model, where lower rates act as a tailwind for trading volumes.

Devin Ryan inquired about the re-engagement of financial sponsors, asking for details on the progression and any sector-specific variations. He also asked about the addressable market and revenue potential of the new private capital advisory (PCA) business and the resources needed to scale it.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Moelis stated that sponsor activity, after a brief pause post-'Liberation Day' in April, has accelerated in the past five to six weeks and is now near pre-downturn levels of enthusiasm. Co-President Navid Mahmoodzadegan added that while most sectors are strong, areas like consumer and industrials still face some trade uncertainty. Regarding PCA, Moelis sees it as a potential multi-hundred-million-dollar revenue opportunity and a key growth area for the firm. Mahmoodzadegan highlighted its strategic importance in providing holistic solutions to private equity clients, which also benefits the core M&A business.

Devin Ryan asked about the M&A backlog, questioning at what point deals get canceled versus delayed amid market volatility and sponsor pressure, and also inquired about the current state of the restructuring business.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Kenneth Moelis explained that while some supply-chain-sensitive deals have been canceled post-April 2nd, he believes the majority of the backlog, especially sponsor-related deals, is merely delayed due to a pressing need for liquidity. Regarding restructuring, he noted that while conversations have increased significantly due to recent volatility, this has not yet translated into a substantial increase in new mandates, with a current focus on capital markets and financing solutions.

Devin Ryan inquired about the drivers of the strong Q4 results, asking whether a specific catalyst improved deal conversion from the backlog or if it was just seasonality. He also asked for more detail on the expected increase in non-compensation expenses for 2025.

Answer

CEO Ken Moelis responded that the pace of deal conversion did pick up in Q4, feeling like more than just seasonality, and noted that the firm's pipeline is still growing to its highest levels ever. CFO Joe Simon added that 2025 non-compensation expenses are projected to increase by approximately 15% over 2024, driven by headcount growth, UK office expansion, client events, and technology spending.

Devin Ryan inquired about the near and intermediate-term outlook for the compensation ratio, the potential for positive operating leverage, and the interplay between M&A activity and interest rates, particularly concerning private equity sponsor reengagement.

Answer

CEO Ken Moelis confirmed that the firm's model for comp ratio leverage (4-5 points per $100 million of revenue) still holds, with Q4's outcome dependent on revenue performance. CFO Joe Simon concurred, assuming no major hiring phases. Regarding M&A, Ken Moelis explained that while sponsor engagement is high, a full recovery is hampered by a slowdown in the entire capital ecosystem, especially the fundraising of new LP capital, which needs to restart for deal velocity to accelerate.

Devin Ryan inquired about the structural changes in client coverage that drove wallet share gains and asked for the firm's perspective on tokenization as a future opportunity.

Answer

Chairman & CEO David Solomon attributed the market share gains to the 'One Goldman Sachs' collaborative culture, the integration of Global Banking and Markets, and a strategic push into financing, which creates a 'virtuous cycle' with clients. On tokenization, he noted the firm is closely watching regulatory developments and sees potential opportunities in reducing friction in the financial system, particularly around funding, but stated it is still early.

Devin Ryan inquired about the fundraising environment for sponsors given LP pressure for capital returns and also asked for an outlook on the debt underwriting business.

Answer

CEO David Solomon described the current fundraising pressure as a short-term phenomenon against a long-term secular growth trend in private assets. Executive Denis Coleman highlighted the debt underwriting business's strength and track record, noting it is well-positioned for both refinancing and transaction-based activity.

Devin Ryan asked about Goldman Sachs' market share with financial sponsors and the potential for the new Capital Solutions group to increase it, as well as the timeline for deploying alternative assets and realizing performance fees.

Answer

CEO David Solomon stated that the firm already has a leading share with sponsors and that the new organizational changes will only strengthen that position as sponsor activity normalizes. CFO Denis Coleman explained that as the dealmaking environment improves, both capital deployment and monetization activity should increase. He noted that while incentive fees are up, they are still below the $1 billion annual target, but they expect to make further progress toward it in 2025.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP inquired about the fee rate trajectory in alternative asset management and asked about the contribution of electronic trading to overall trading revenues.

Answer

CFO Denis Coleman explained that alternative fee rates are mix-dependent, with certain channels like OCIO offerings having lower effective fees as part of a strategy to achieve scale. Regarding electronic trading, he described a multi-channel client strategy across voice, high-touch, and electronic platforms that are increasingly integrated to optimize market-making and client solutions.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP Securities inquired about the criteria for creating single-name SPVs, the potential growth in their numbers, and Forge's current distribution strategy. He also asked for characterization of Q1 market activity, the composition of the deal pipeline, and whether the large institutional block trades were episodic or a sustainable trend.

Answer

CEO Kelly Rodriques stated that any mature private company is a candidate for an SPV to improve liquidity efficiency, envisioning hundreds in the future. He noted that the planned Accuidity interval fund could significantly broaden distribution. Regarding Q1, he described broad-based optimism and re-engagement across investor types, particularly in AI, before recent tariff uncertainty. CFO James Nevin added that large block trades are a recurring but unpredictable factor and expects a growing diversity of trade sizes.

Devin Ryan of Citizens JMP asked about the evolution and growing importance of Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) in driving market liquidity. He also inquired about the company's 2025 outlook, specifically the expected pace of market recovery and how quickly an IPO market rebound would impact Forge's results.

Answer

CEO Kelly Rodriques and CFO James Nevin addressed the questions. Rodriques highlighted the significant growth in SPV assets under management to nearly $1 billion and noted the strategic expansion into multi-name SPVs. Regarding the 2025 outlook, Rodriques anticipates steady momentum rather than a sudden IPO floodgate opening, while Nevin confirmed a strong Q1 marketplace revenue forecast but cautioned that custodial fees would be impacted by prior interest rate cuts. Rodriques added that a meaningful impact from IPOs would require a steady stream of filings, not just one or two.

Inquired about the evolution and importance of SPVs in driving market liquidity, the company's outlook for 2025 regarding the pace of market recovery, and how quickly an opening of the IPO market would impact results.

Answer

SPVs are a key growth area, with AUM growing to nearly $1B, and the company expects to expand into multi-name SPVs to reduce friction and increase liquidity. For 2025, they anticipate steady momentum and an improved environment rather than a massive IPO snapback, though they remain optimistic. An increase in IPO activity would be positively correlated with Forge's volume, particularly for the specific names that file, but a steady stream is needed for a material impact.

Asked about client engagement with Forge Pro, trends in institutional capital, and the potential impact of the new political administration on regulations for private markets.

Answer

Forge Pro adoption is accelerating and now enables 16% of revenue, with strong institutional interest. The company is engaging with new, large institutions. Post-election, the key benefit is certainty. While a lighter regulatory touch is expected, the company has seen bipartisan support for increasing access to private markets and will continue to educate regulators.

Inquired about the new, less specific full-year guidance format and whether it was possible to bridge the 2024 outlook to the previously stated 2025 targets. Also asked for quantification of headwinds on flows from M&A and interest rates.

Answer

The new guidance format is considered more appropriate for the market-driven business. While not providing a bridge to 2025, executives emphasized that margin expansion will continue and the previous targets were milestones, not final goals. Lower interest rates are expected to be a tailwind for flows, while recent M&A headwinds are considered temporary and not indicative of underlying client health.

Devin Ryan from JMP Securities asked for details on the 49% increase in new accounts following the commission cuts and inquired about the company's balance sheet strategy, particularly recent treasury purchases.

Answer

President & CEO Tim Hockey described the initial data as anecdotal but highly positive, citing improved client advocacy scores and encouraging account transfer trends. CFO Steve Boyle explained the treasury purchase was an opportunistic move due to a skewed swap curve and does not signal a major expansion of the balance sheet, with future changes likely focused on BDA balances.

Devin Ryan of JMP Securities asked for more detail on the slowdown in retail net new asset growth, inquiring whether it was due to slower gross inflows or higher outflows.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Timothy Hockey noted that while industry growth was down, TD Ameritrade gained market share. He mentioned ongoing post-Scottrade integration changes and branch consolidations. EVP & CFO Stephen Boyle added that it was the best Q3 for client retention ever.

Devin Ryan from JMP Securities asked for a deeper explanation of the weaker Net New Assets (NNA) this quarter, seeking details on the retail and institutional deltas from the prior quarter. He also requested an update on the Asia growth opportunity, including potential partnerships in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Mainland China.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Hockey explained that the quarter was an anomaly driven by market effects from late 2018, noting that pipelines for both retail and institutional have since recovered. He mentioned the year-to-date annualized NNA growth is 8%. Regarding Asia, he confirmed it is a key growth strategy with ongoing discussions and relationship-building, but nothing is ready to be announced yet.

Devin Ryan inquired about the strategy behind the higher percentage of floating-rate assets in the Bank Deposit Account (BDA) and sought to understand the primary drivers behind the strong net new asset (NNA) growth.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Hockey explained that the floating rate position was a prudent measure to manage large cash inflows over time rather than a call on interest rates. He attributed the strong NNA to lower Scottrade client attrition, the re-establishment of the expanded branch network post-integration, and the ongoing secular shift to the RIA channel for institutional clients.