Dominic O'Kane

Dominic O'Kane asked about real-time demand indicators, particularly any new weaknesses in the U.S. market, and ArcelorMittal's approach to European auto segment contracts for January. He also questioned if the price tension seen in auto contracts over the past two years might alleviate.

Answer

CFO Genuino Christino noted Calvert running at full capacity and strong performance in U.S. energy and automotive segments, with potential for stabilization in Canada/Mexico. He stated that European auto contract negotiations are ongoing, aiming for win-win agreements. While not commenting on specific prices, he indicated a positive environment with rising spot prices in Europe, North America, and Brazil.

Dominic O'Kane from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about real-time demand indicators, specifically any new pockets of weakness in the U.S. given the government shutdown. He also sought insight into ArcelorMittal's approach to European auto segment contracts moving into January and whether price tension from the last two years might alleviate.

Answer

Genuino Christino (CFO) noted overall U.S. demand is moving sideways, but Calvert is running full with record production, and energy/automotive segments are performing well. He mentioned potential for stabilization in Canada and Mexico. For European auto contracts, Mr. Christino stated the negotiation process is ongoing, expecting win-win agreements. While not commenting on specific prices, he indicated a positive environment with spot prices moving higher in Europe, North America, and Brazil.

Dominic O'Kane asked what ArcelorMittal would consider an 'acceptable' outcome for the EU safeguard review and inquired about the company's long-term decarbonization CapEx plans in Europe.

Answer

EVP & CFO Genuino Christino stated the industry is requesting import quotas be limited to a ~15% market share, a significant reduction from the 27% seen in 2024. On decarbonization, he described a gradual, long-term transition contingent on supportive policies, noting they are prepared for significant investments at facilities like Dunkirk and are already spending ~$300 million annually on related projects.

Dominic O'Kane of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked about ArcelorMittal's desired outcome for the revision of European steel safeguards and whether the Dunkirk restart signaled market confidence. He also requested an update on the company's long-term decarbonization capital expenditure plans in Europe.

Answer

EVP & CFO Genuino Christino stated the industry seeks to limit imports to a ~15% market share via revised safeguards. He clarified the Dunkirk restart was a scheduled maintenance event, not a market call. On decarbonization, he reiterated that significant investment is contingent on supportive government policies, while highlighting ~$300 million in current-year spending on projects like the new EAF in Spain.

Dominic O'Kane inquired about the evolution of order books in Europe and the U.S., the potential size of working capital optimization in 2025, and the timeline and cost to return the Ukraine plant to production.

Answer

CEO Aditya Mittal stated the Ukraine facility is currently operating at 30% capacity and is cash-flow negative, but could reach cash breakeven by doubling utilization to around 3 million tonnes. Further ramp-up would require CapEx. CFO Genuino Christino noted that European order books for Q1 are nearly full, with the market awaiting trade actions. He expects a working capital release in 2025 but did not quantify the amount.

Dominic O'Kane asked about the risk of a CapEx underspend in the second half of the year against the full-year guidance. He also inquired about current lead times in the U.S. and Europe and how quickly those markets could tighten with an interest rate cutting cycle.

Answer

Group CFO Genuino Christino confirmed the company is retaining its full-year CapEx guidance of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, viewing the lower H1 spend as a matter of timing. He noted that lead times in the U.S. and Europe are currently short, which is typical in a weak market, but acknowledged they can extend very rapidly when demand rebounds.

Dominic O'Kane from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for more details on how Outokumpu intends to redeem its convertible bond.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar explained that the company's current base case scenario is that the convertible bond will convert in July of the current year.

Dominic O'Kane of JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for more details on how Outokumpu intends to redeem its convertible bond maturing in July.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar responded that the company's current base case scenario is that the convertible bond will convert in July of this year.

Dominic O'Kane requested more details on how Outokumpu intends to redeem its maturing convertible bond.

Answer

CFO Marc-Simon Schaar explained that the company's current base case scenario is that the convertible bond will convert upon its maturity in July.

Dominic O'Kane from JPMorgan Chase & Co. asked for clarification on Glencore's operational stance in Russia and the impact on its marketing business, and also inquired about changes in coal customer behavior and the market outlook.

Answer

CEO Gary Nagle explained that Glencore is honoring existing non-sanctioned Russian contracts but not entering new ones, with an immaterial impact on the marketing business. He noted that while coal customer appreciation has increased, their buying habits are stable, and the outlook remains strong due to the ongoing energy crisis.

Dominic O'Kane asked for commentary on the nature and location of any potential synergies that Glencore had identified in a possible transaction with Bunge.

Answer

CEO Ivan Glasenberg and CFO Steven Kalmin both declined to comment on the question, stating that they could not discuss Bunge as it is a public company.