Doug Schenkel

Doug Schenkel from Wolfe Research asked if stabilizing trends in Europe and China could represent potential upside to the implied Q4 guidance. He also requested more detail on the strong demand for automation within the core industrial business.

Answer

CFO Shawn Vadala was cautious, noting that Europe faces a tough Q4 comparison and that China remains a 'wild card' for which the company's outlook is conservative. CEO Patrick Kaltenbach attributed the core industrial strength to a sustained demand for automation and digitalization solutions, highlighting good momentum in the U.S. and a recovery in China and Asia Pacific across various end markets.

Doug Schenkel asked about the significance of the PRECEDE-CRC advanced adenoma sensitivity and specificity performance in Natera's decision to increase investment in the early cancer detection program, comparing it to standards used for NIPT and MRD. He also inquired about the expected 2026 investment and the minimum viable performance for commercialization.

Answer

CEO Steve Chapman confirmed that the PRECEDE study's performance was crucial for the decision to go "full steam ahead" with the FDA-enabling FIND study, noting that initial stages were started based on earlier pilot data. He indicated that 2026 investment would be directionally similar to 2025's spending and reiterated the need for "really strong performance" to make the product worthwhile, keeping competitor performance in mind.

Doug Schenkel asked about the adverse impact of new patient exome costs on gross margin, the potential to raise guidance on incremental Signatera volume growth, and the rationale for holding operating spend flat despite strong revenue performance.

Answer

CFO Mike Brophy explained that without the influx of new patients, gross margin would have seen steady sequential improvement. He suggested analysts could modestly increase volume expectations but should anticipate quarterly fluctuations. Regarding OpEx, management's prepared remarks indicated they are holding the guide flat to gain operating leverage from prior investments, while remaining opportunistic to fund high-return projects.

Doug Schenkel at Wolfe Research inquired about the weak correlation between multimodal AI scores (DPAI) and Decipher, asking how clinicians manage discordant results and if this poses a concern or an advantage for Decipher. He also asked about Veracyte's internal digital pathology efforts and the timeline for these initiatives, and later, how Veracyte plans to balance its ahead-of-schedule margin targets with opportunistic investments to drive future growth.

Answer

CEO Marc Stapley emphasized the importance of developing robust clinical evidence for new technologies like DPAI, noting that in cases of discordance, clinicians typically rely on the gold standard, Decipher, to avoid undertreatment. Chief Commercial Officer John Leite added that significant discordance makes complementarity difficult to define, and physicians lean on Decipher's established evidence. Chief Medical and Scientific Officer Phil Febbo detailed Veracyte's comprehensive data set for integrating transcriptome and DPAI insights, focusing on molecular features like PORTOS and PTEN for predictive therapeutic benefit. CFO Rebecca Chambers explained that Veracyte is accelerating investments in key areas like the breast channel, MRD, and Prosigna launch while aiming to maintain an approximate 25% adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 and beyond, leveraging gross margin tailwinds to offset increased spend.

Doug Schenkel asked about the clinical management of discordant results between digital pathology AI (DPAI) scores and Decipher, Veracyte's internal digital pathology efforts and timelines, and how the company balances margin trajectory with opportunistic investment in future growth drivers.

Answer

CEO Marc Stapley, Chief Commercial Officer John Leite, and Chief Medical and Scientific Officer Phil Febbo explained that DPAI models lack sufficient evidence, leading clinicians to prioritize Decipher as the gold standard in cases of discordance. Veracyte is leveraging its extensive transcriptome and pathology data to develop DPAI models and molecular features. CFO Rebecca Chambers highlighted that Veracyte is ahead of its margin targets due to disciplined portfolio management and is accelerating investments in Q4 2025, planning to maintain an approximate 25% Adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 by offsetting increased spend with gross margin tailwinds.

Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research LLC inquired about the long-term durability of Decipher's growth, specifically maintaining over 20% growth, and whether this could sustain double-digit revenue growth for the entire company, even with moderating Afirma performance.

Answer

CFO Rebecca Chambers clarified that the current guidance implies 22.5% to 24% revenue growth for Decipher, driven by the metastatic launch's halo effect and strong sales execution. CEO Marc Stapley affirmed confidence in reaching 80% market penetration for Decipher and outlined a layered growth strategy with Prosigna, MRD, and other pipeline products to ensure sustained double-digit company growth.

Doug Schenkel questioned the pacing dynamics in the financial model, noting that the full-year guidance increase was less than the Q3 beat, margins were light but expected to jump in Q4, and the tax rate was low in Q3 but expected to jump in Q4. He also asked about comfort with modeling 6-8% core top-line growth and 50-100 basis points of margin expansion for 2026, given difficult comparisons.

Answer

CFO Amol Chaubal advised focusing on the full-year performance, acknowledging quarterly puts and takes like bonus payouts and discrete tax items. He reiterated the full-year tax rate of 16.5%. CEO Udit Batra emphasized the strong setup for 2026, driven by the ongoing instrument replacement cycle (still in mid-innings), idiosyncratic growth drivers (GLP-1, India, PFAS), innovation (CDMS, Empower), and a more stable policy environment across pharma and academia. He expressed extreme confidence in top-line growth for 2026, deferring specific guidance until the Q4 call but highlighting numerous catalysts.

Doug Schenkel questioned the Q3 pacing dynamics, noting a revenue beat but a smaller full-year guidance increase, light margins with a projected Q4 jump, and a low tax rate in Q3 followed by an expected Q4 increase, asking whether to focus on these quarterly puts and takes or the overall strong full-year performance. He also asked about comfort with 2026 modeling of 6-8% core growth and 50-100 bps margin expansion given strong momentum and difficult comparisons.

Answer

CFO Amol Chaubal advised focusing on the full-year performance, explaining quarterly variations are due to factors like bonus payouts, commissions, and timing of discrete tax items, with a full-year tax rate of 16.5%. President and CEO Udit Batra emphasized the strong setup for 2026, citing the ongoing instrument replacement cycle, idiosyncratic growth drivers (GLP-1, PFAS, India generics), innovation in bioanalytical characterization and bioseparations, and new product launches like Xevo CDMS and Empower advancements, all contributing to confidence in top-line growth.

Doug Schenkel asked about the timeline for outlining a full strategic framework, the likelihood of meaningful EBITDA expansion in 2026 given new investments and challenging comparisons, and whether Avantor's lingering challenges are due to systems or competitive dynamics.

Answer

President and CEO Emmanuel Ligner stated he would provide a more comprehensive strategic vision in Q1 2026, having already initiated action on obvious challenges. EVP and CFO Brent Jones acknowledged the difficult comparators for 2026 and emphasized the focus on the Avantor Revival plan's impact on operations and cost efficiency. Emmanuel Ligner characterized the market dynamic as mixed, with solid production but uncertainty in R&D (academic and pharma).

Doug Schenkel asked if it's reasonable to expect CEO Emmanuelle Ligner to present his full assessment and strategic framework by early Q1. He also questioned CFO R. Brent Jones on whether meaningful EBITDA expansion in 2026 seems challenging given new hires, investments, difficult revenue growth, and tough margin comparisons. Finally, he asked both executives if visibility and forecasting challenges stem from systems needing investment or evolving competitive dynamics.

Answer

Emmanuelle Ligner, President and CEO, confirmed he would provide further strategic vision in Q1 after his initial 100-day assessment. R. Brent Jones, EVP and CFO, acknowledged the challenging comparators for 2026 but refrained from signaling specific numbers, emphasizing the focus on the 'Avantor Revival' plan. Emmanuelle Ligner characterized the market as mixed, with solid production but uncertainty in R&D (academic and pharmaceutical sectors).

Doug Schenkel sought clarification on why contract extensions in the lab business were being described as 'share gains.' He also asked about the impact of the price-focused strategy on near- and long-term margin targets and questioned the conviction behind the implied Q4 EBITDA margin ramp to ~18% given current headwinds.

Answer

President & CEO Michael Stubblefield explained that during competitive bids, Avantor not only retained existing business but also won business from competitors at those same accounts, resulting in net share gains. EVP & CFO R. Brent Jones acknowledged near-term margin pressure in the lab segment but stressed the long-term value of the wins. He clarified the Q4 margin ramp is at the high end of guidance and would require a favorable mix shift, not a baseline assumption.

Doug Schenkel questioned why Q4 revenue guidance implies only 2-3% higher than Q3, contrasting with a historical average of 9%, and whether this reflects conservatism or timing dynamics. He also asked for clarification on filtration revenue growth being at the lower end of the range, specifically differentiating between ATF and non-ATF, and its implications for product mix, such as stronger resin performance.

Answer

President and CEO Olivier Loeillot explained that less seasonality is expected this year due to an unusually strong Q3, which was higher than Q2. The Q4 guidance implies 8-13% organic growth, factoring in a 3% headwind from a gene therapy customer in Q4 of the prior year and a significantly tougher Q4 comparison (9 points more difficult sequentially). Regarding filtration, he mentioned that the delivery of blockbuster ATF hardware towards the end of Q3 also contributes to the reduced seasonality between Q3 and Q4.

Doug Schenkel questioned the implied Q4 revenue seasonality (2-3% higher than Q3 vs. historical 9% average), asking if it's conservatism or timing dynamics. He also sought clarification on filtration revenue growth being at the lower end of the range, differentiating ATF vs. non-ATF, and broader product mix.

Answer

Olivier Loeillot, President and CEO, explained that Q3's unusually strong performance (higher than Q2) reduces Q3-Q4 seasonality. He noted the Q4 guidance of 8-13% organic growth includes a 3% headwind from a gene therapy customer (purely filtration) and tougher year-over-year comps. He confirmed filtration revenue was impacted by the delivery of blockbuster ATF hardware in late Q3, affecting Q3-Q4 seasonality.

Doug Schenkel probed the company's long-term growth outlook, asking for a definition of 'market growth,' whether the goal of outperforming the market by 5% is sustainable amid new modality pressures, and if doubling revenue in the 'medium term' could happen in as little as three years.

Answer

CEO Olivier Loeillot defined market growth as 8-12% and expressed confidence in outperforming that by 5% due to the strength across all franchises. He affirmed this goal is achievable even with headwinds in specific new modalities by focusing on a diversified portfolio. He clarified that the 'medium term' for doubling revenue refers to a typical five-year strategic plan, with M&A as a potential accelerator.

Doug Schenkel asked about China diagnostics, specifically its percentage of total sales, the expectation for it to be down 20%-25% through Q2 2026 due to multiplex reimbursement changes, and the confidence in its return to growth thereafter, contrasting with other companies' cautious outlooks.

Answer

Senior Vice President and CFO Max Krakowiak clarified that China is closer to 6% of total revenue. He confirmed expectations for DRG headwinds to continue until the Q2 2026 anniversary, after which the ImmunoDiagnostics business in China is assumed to return to low single-digit growth. Krakowiak also highlighted the strong performance of the ImmunoDiagnostics business outside of China.

Doug Schenkel inquired about the revenue pacing assumptions for the second half of the year, including factors like budget flush and NIH funding, and asked about the timeline for the China DRG headwind to annualize.

Answer

CFO Max Krakowiak noted that revenue pacing reflects normal seasonality, with a Q3-to-Q4 ramp boosted by the Genomics England (Gel) contract and a strong quarter for the Signals software business. CEO Prahlad Singh stated the DRG impact, which began in late Q2, is expected to persist until it is anniversaried next year.

Doug Schenkel asked if the Q4 guidance bump was solely due to the Q3 revenue beat or if other factors were at play, and sought reassurance on reducing risks and improving visibility after past surprises in incentive payments and contract manufacturing.

Answer

CFO Bob McMahon clarified that Q4 guidance was not solely due to the Q3 beat, noting prudence given market dynamics, and committed to improving transparency and visibility. CEO Eric Green added that West is laser-focused on reducing risks and increasing visibility through deeper segment focus and closer customer engagement, confident in improving market conditions.

Doug Schenkel from Wolfe Research asked if the Q4 guidance increase solely reflected the Q3 revenue beat or if there was conservatism, and sought clarification on the company's risk and visibility heading into next year, aiming to understand if West is returning to its historical "sleep-at-night" consistency.

Answer

CFO Bob McMahon stated that the Q4 guidance increase did not imply any material pull-forward from Q3, noting that Q4 represents an acceleration on a two-year stack basis, with an element of prudence due to market dynamics. He acknowledged that while visibility is improving and long-term trends are positive, the market remains dynamic. CEO Eric Green added that West is focused on reducing risks and increasing visibility by going deeper into segments, improving customer engagement, and responding to improving market conditions.

Doug Schenkel from Wolfe Research LLC asked about the company's path back to normalized growth into 2026 and for clarification on what assumptions for tariffs are included in the current guidance.

Answer

SVP & CFO Bernard Birkett stated the tariff guidance is based on information known at the time it was prepared, with ongoing monitoring and mitigation efforts. CEO Eric Green described 2025 as a 'transition year' and expressed confidence in the building momentum of the HVP components business into the second half, but refrained from giving specific 2026 guidance.

Doug Schenkel asked if Danaher has observed any changes in activity or tone with biotech and pharmaceutical customers following the Pfizer MFN announcement, and if this is reflected in guidance. He also questioned if there's an argument for an upside skew to 2026 margins, given the $300 million in productivity enhancements invested in 2025 that depressed current year margins, and the anticipated benefits rolling through next year.

Answer

Rainer Blair (President and CEO) confirmed a shift in tone and increased confidence among pharma executives regarding capital investment decisions due to dissipating policy overhangs (MFN, tariffs stabilizing), but noted this hasn't yet translated into order patterns, so it's not reflected in guidance. Matt McGrew (EVP and CFO) reiterated that the 35-45% fall-through on volume plus $250 million net savings from cost actions (from $175 million in 2025) will drive over 100 basis points of margin expansion. He emphasized balancing investment with EPS growth, feeling comfortable with high single-digit EPS even at the low end of the revenue range.

Doug Schenkel asked if Danaher has observed any changes in activity or tone with biotech and pharmaceutical customers following the Pfizer MFN announcement, and whether any such changes were reflected in the current guidance. He also questioned the 2026 margin outlook, suggesting that the $300 million in productivity enhancements in 2025, which depressed current year margins, might lead to an upside skew for 2026 margins as benefits roll through.

Answer

Rainer Blair, President and CEO, confirmed a shift in tone among pharma executives, noting increased confidence as policy overhangs (like MFN discussions and tariffs) stabilize. However, he stated that this has not yet translated into demonstrated order patterns, so it is not reflected in current guidance. Matt McGrew, Executive Vice President and CFO, reiterated expectations for north of 100 basis points of margin expansion in 2026, driven by 35%-45% fall-through on volume and $250 million in net savings from 2025 cost actions, which provides a $0.30 EPS tailwind. He emphasized that this is a net number balancing investment with delivering high single-digit EPS growth, even at the low end of the revenue range.

Doug Schenkel sought clarification on the bioprocessing assumptions within the full-year guidance, asking about the revenue growth target, second-half pricing assumptions, and whether strength in bioprocessing was offsetting weakness in Discovery & Medical (D&M).

Answer

EVP & CFO Matt McGrew confirmed the full-year guide for bioprocessing remains at high single-digits. He noted pricing was around 1.5-2% in the first half and expects a similar or slightly better rate in the second half. McGrew also affirmed that stronger performance in the core bioprocessing business is offsetting some softness in the D&M business, maintaining the overall segment guide.

Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research inquired about the company's guidance philosophy, balancing strong momentum with setting achievable targets, and asked about capital deployment plans, including M&A readiness.

Answer

CEO Padraig McDonnell affirmed 'very good visibility' for the year-end guidance and a commitment to clear, achievable targets. On capital deployment, he stated that organizational readiness for M&A is 'extremely high' due to the Ignite operating model and that M&A will be a more meaningful focus, guided by a disciplined, strategy-aligned approach.

Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research inquired about the company's guidance philosophy, specifically how it balances strong current momentum with the goal of setting achievable targets. He also asked about the capital deployment strategy, focusing on M&A readiness and potential buybacks.

Answer

President and CEO Padraig McDonnell emphasized that the Q4 guidance is based on very good visibility from the order book and is considered clear and achievable, though it's too early for a 2026 guide. On capital deployment, he stated that M&A is expected to be a more meaningful part of the strategy, guided by a disciplined approach aligned with strategic pillars. He noted the company's organizational readiness for deals is "extremely high" thanks to the execution capabilities developed through the Ignite program.

Doug Schenkel questioned the full-year guidance, noting the math implies a significant second-half recovery, and asked if this relies on market improvement or just easier comps. He also asked about the company's current thinking on capital deployment.

Answer

CFO Robert McMahon confirmed the math is correct and that the expected second-half growth is largely a function of easier year-over-year comparisons, suggesting a 2-year stack view shows a smoother trend. CEO Michael McMullen added that market 'stabilization' is the key factor. On capital deployment, McMullen stated Agilent remains interested in a balanced approach, including M&A, and noted the deal pipeline is more robust than it has been in years.

Doug Schenkel from Wolfe Research LLC asked for a rule of thumb on how Tempus decides between partnering versus organic development. He also inquired about the long-term potential for MRD as a percentage of oncology volumes and its impact on gross margin.

Answer

CEO Eric Lefkofsky explained that their M&A filter starts with not acquiring anything that would derail their plan to reach adjusted EBITDA positivity. On MRD, he stated it will be a catalyst for unit growth post-reimbursement, but the company will be measured in its rollout to ensure sustainable, long-term growth rather than a short-term spike. CFO Jim Rogers added that any margin impact from MRD would be managed carefully to maintain the company's overall path to profitability.

Doug Schenkel asked about the size of the sales pipeline that is close to converting but awaiting resolution on NIH funding. He also inquired about the development of reusable smart cells and which customer segment, research or clinical, would be more receptive to this new technology.

Answer

President and CEO Christian Henry described the number of near-term sales opportunities, particularly for Vega, as "significant" and larger than normal, representing potential upside for 2025 and 2026. On reusable smart cells, he stated that both clinical and research customers are excited about the innovation. The initial rollout will likely target high-throughput customers to maximize the benefit of lower costs, which also improves PacBio's gross margins.

Doug Schenkel asked about the current M&A funnel and the key parameters for potential deals, and also questioned the drivers behind margins trending ahead of the 2028 long-range plan.

Answer

CEO Thierry Bernard described the M&A strategy as focused on synergistic, value-creating bolt-on acquisitions with a clear path to accretion within 2-3 years. CFO Roland Sackers acknowledged tracking ahead of margin targets, attributing future improvements to digital initiatives, AI, and scale, but noted they are taking a realistic view given the macro environment and will likely update long-term guidance early next year.

Doug Schenkel challenged management on the stock's valuation, asking why the company isn't more aggressive with share buybacks now, and sought to understand the key levers for margin expansion into next year beyond the obvious factors.

Answer

CEO Thierry Bernard expressed that consistent execution would ultimately be rewarded by the market. CFO Roland Sackers noted the company's consistent buyback policy and acknowledged opportunities to increase it over time. On margins, both executives highlighted that beyond the NeuMoDx discontinuation, drivers include site rationalization, COGS improvements for QIAstat, and procurement efficiencies, balanced with reinvestment in accelerating R&D projects.

Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research LLC inquired about the new strategic plan, asking for specific KPIs to measure progress, whether the portfolio review is complete regarding potential divestitures, and what fundamentally differentiates this new strategy from those of previous leadership.

Answer

President and CEO Sam Raha explained that specific, quantifiable KPIs for the new strategy will be shared in the coming months. He stated that while the company is excited about the current portfolio, all product lines will be periodically reviewed against strategic goals. Raha emphasized that the new strategy's key differentiators are a disciplined capital allocation towards the cancer care continuum, expanding the portfolio beyond HCT and HRD through partnerships, and a renewed focus on execution with 'stepped up urgency and strengthened execution rigor'.

Doug Schenkel of Wolfe Research sought clarity on tariff mitigation efforts, the mathematical drivers of the guided operating margin expansion, and the reason for the increased full-year tax rate assumption.

Answer

CFO Marco Dal Lago explained that tariff impacts are being offset through customer negotiations and leveraging their global footprint. He attributed the operating margin expansion to a higher mix of High-Value Solutions and lower depreciation, not flat OpEx. The higher tax rate is a non-cash item reflecting a cautious approach on deferred tax assets in Denmark.

Doug Schenkel from Wolfe Research LLC asked for confirmation that Q4 guidance implies the strongest ex-China growth in two years and presented a framework for 2026 growth, asking if low-to-mid single-digit core revenue growth is a reasonable expectation.

Answer

CEO Jacob Thaysen avoided giving specific 2026 guidance but affirmed the company's growth trajectory, stating that the NovaSeq X transition remains the primary driver. He reiterated expectations that 2026 financial performance will be better than 2025, and 2027 will improve upon 2026, led by strength in the clinical segment. He also noted that multiomics is expected to add about one percentage point of growth, likely at the 2027 level.

Doug Schenkel asked about the outlook for continued momentum into fiscal 2026 and whether any impact from China's DRG policies was felt in the quarter.

Answer

CFO Karleen Oberton confirmed the company expects mid-single-digit growth in FY26 but highlighted headwinds from the Fluoriscan discontinuation and ongoing challenges in China and with HIV testing. Corporate VP & IR Michael Watts later clarified that while Hologic is not directly exposed to the same DRG issues as peers, the overall China operating environment is difficult, with revenue from the region down over 50% year-over-year.

Doug Schenkel's associate asked about the levers available to protect margins if NIH or China conditions worsen and how Bruker is positioned to benefit from increased testing in areas like food, water, and PFAS.

Answer

CEO Frank Laukien stated that a reasonable contingency for NIH funding reduction is already baked into the guidance. CFO Gerald Herman added that Bruker's global diversification, with over 70% of revenue ex-U.S., and strength in areas like semiconductor metrology and microbiology provide resilience. Regarding environmental testing, Laukien noted Bruker's involvement in applied markets like PFAS testing and suggested that a focus on phenomics aligns well with long-term health and environmental research trends.