Drew McReynolds

Drew McReynolds inquired about Rogers Communications' 2026 free cash flow guidance, specifically regarding below-the-line items like interest, cash taxes, and minority interest distributions, given the expected CapEx reduction. He also sought observations on the internet market's Q4 performance and views on TPIA competition.

Answer

CFO Glenn Brandt explained that free cash flow guidance blends variability across CapEx, EBITDA, interest, and tax rates, with no single prominent drag. President and CEO Tony Staffieri described internet promotional activity as stable, with Rogers' strategy focusing on reliability, speed, and the Rogers Xfinity platform. He added that TPIA initiatives by competitors are not significantly impacting their markets.

Drew McReynolds first asked CFO Glenn Brandt about the drivers behind the free cash flow guidance, specifically regarding below-the-line items like interest, cash taxes, and minority interest distributions, given the projected CapEx step down. He then asked President and CEO Tony Staffieri for his observations on the internet market's promotional activity and the impact of TPIA (Third-Party Internet Access) competition.

Answer

CFO Glenn Brandt stated that the free cash flow guidance reflects a blending across all lines and variability, with no single prominent 'drag' category. President and CEO Tony Staffieri described internet promotional activity as stable, not as intense as wireless, and expressed satisfaction with ARPU and market share gains driven by network reliability, speed, and the Rogers Xfinity platform. He noted minimal impact from TPIA initiatives in their markets.

Drew McReynolds asked for expectations on wireless service revenue trends into Q4 and 2026, and the direct impacts of the Toronto Blue Jays' success on Rogers' telecom business, including subscriber growth and branding benefits.

Answer

CFO Glenn Brandt affirmed commitment to positive wireless service revenue growth for the full year 2025 and strong Q4 execution, while declining to guide for 2026. President and CEO Tony Staffieri highlighted the Blue Jays' World Series run as a significant benefit, enhancing the Rogers brand and showcasing telecom products through cross-synergies, reinforcing the power of live sports.

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets asked for clarification on the updated 2025 guidance, specifically if the core telecom outlook was unchanged. He also inquired about the normalcy of MLSE's pro forma 2025 performance for future modeling and the expected trend for wireless network revenue growth.

Answer

CFO Glenn Brandt confirmed the core telecom outlook remains within the initial ranges and the guidance update is primarily for the MLSE inclusion. He stated the 2025 MLSE pro forma is a 'clean aggregation' without aggressive synergy assumptions. Brandt added that for wireless revenue, price initiatives and customer base management will continue through the second half of the year.

Drew McReynolds sought clarification on whether the free cash flow guidance includes distributions from the new structured equity investment and questioned the wireless pricing environment, asking why market discipline seems weak despite management's commentary.

Answer

CFO Glenn Brandt clarified that the free cash flow guidance range is not altered by the new equity transaction, though it will be reflected in future reporting. President and CEO Anthony Staffieri addressed wireless pricing by noting the market growth has slowed significantly. He stated Rogers remained disciplined but was disappointed by competitors' discounts, and sees future opportunities in ARPU growth, multiline plans, and handset-centric promotions similar to the U.S. market.

Drew McReynolds asked about the volume assumptions underlying the 2025 service revenue guidance, given moderating population growth, and inquired about alternative plans for balance sheet management if the proposed structured equity financing does not proceed.

Answer

President and CEO Tony Staffieri explained that the 2025 market growth estimate is around 3%, down from over 4% in 2024, and that Rogers expects to continue gaining market share. CFO Glenn Brandt addressed the balance sheet, stating that maintaining investment-grade ratings is an absolute priority and that the company has several other options available to manage leverage, though he did not specify them.

Drew McReynolds asked about the valuation approach for the minority stake in the financing deal and questioned the outlook for wireless network revenue growth into Q4 and 2025, given ARPU pressure and changes to immigration.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Glenn Brandt described the valuation as a straightforward analysis of future cash flows from growing data traffic. President and CEO Tony Staffieri added that despite government curbs on immigration, the overall market remains healthy due to penetration gains. He stated the company is committed to growing ARPU into next year through effective base management and upselling strategies.

Drew McReynolds inquired about the evolving internet competitive landscape in Eastern Canada, Bell's initiatives out west as highlighted at Investor Day, and an update on the potential timing for the Northwestel deal closure.

Answer

CEO Mirko Bibic explained Bell's two-fold internet strategy: protecting retail position in the East and focusing on mobility, streaming bundles, and disciplined fiber internet resale in the West. He stated the Northwestel deal is more likely to close in 2026, with Bell content to operate it if not, noting its minimal impact on deleveraging.

Drew McReynolds requested clarification on how new revenue streams from Bell Business Markets (BBM), like AI Fabric and Ateco, are reported within the company's financial segments. He also asked about the outlook for further Canadian fiber expansion.

Answer

EVP & CFO Curtis Millen explained that Ateco and cybersecurity are primarily service revenue, while AI Fabric revenue accounting depends on contract structure (financing vs. operating lease), affecting whether it's reported as service or product revenue. President & CEO Mirko Bibic added that the Canadian fiber build has been scaled back, with the current focus on penetrating the existing ~8 million home footprint.

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets requested clarification on how revenue streams from Bell Business Markets (BBM) are reported in segmented disclosures and asked about the outlook for further fiber-to-the-home expansion in Canada given the regulatory climate.

Answer

EVP & CFO Curtis Millen explained that while Ateco and cybersecurity are mostly service revenue, AI Fabric revenue could be classified as either service or product depending on contract terms. President & CEO Mirko Bibic added that the Canadian fiber build has already been scaled back, with the current focus on penetrating the existing footprint and ensuring fair compensation for network investments.

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets asked about the assumptions behind the reiterated 2025 guidance and sought clarification on the math for the 2027 leverage target of 3.5x.

Answer

CEO Mirko Bibic stated that the original guidance ranges were set to accommodate the current environment. CFO Curtis Millen explained the deleveraging path, noting that while Ziply's debt will initially increase leverage, this will be offset by free cash flow growth, asset sales, and over $1 billion in improved free cash flow from the capital-efficient PSP partnership.

Drew McReynolds inquired about BCE's target leverage ratio for the end of 2025 and the expected timeline for monetizing additional noncore assets. He also asked for the key assumptions behind the 2025 revenue growth guidance range of -3% to +1%, particularly concerning macro, regulatory, and competitive factors.

Answer

Curtis Millen, CFO, stated that the primary focus is on maintaining investment-grade credit ratings and reducing the net leverage ratio through free cash flow growth and asset sales, without providing a specific target or timeline. He noted that achieving the higher end of the revenue guidance depends on a sustained improvement in the competitive pricing environment. Mirko Bibic, President and CEO, added that the current regulatory policy disincentivizes investment in critical infrastructure.

Drew McReynolds asked about the recurring nature of government and corporate headwinds into the next year, specifically questioning confidence in the 9%-11% organic revenue growth target for corporates, and customer reaction to Agentic AI, particularly Westlaw Advantage, and its differentiation from competitors.

Answer

CEO Steve Hasker explained that corporate sales softness was temporary and self-inflicted due to sales organizational changes, but expressed confidence in the end market opportunity and the 9%-11% target for next year. CFO Mike Eastwood added that government headwinds were due to recent downgrades and cancellations prior to any shutdown, and while turbulent, the long-term value proposition for government agencies remains strong. Steve Hasker further detailed that customer reaction to Westlaw Advantage and Co-Counsel Legal has been very strong, with early indications of changed customer behavior, and highlighted the product's differentiation through content integration and editorial expertise.

Drew McReynolds asked about the recurring nature of government and corporate headwinds into next year, the comfort level with the 9%-11% organic revenue growth target for corporates, and customer reactions to Agentic AI offerings like Westlaw Advantage.

Answer

CEO Steve Hasker explained that corporate sales softness is temporary and self-inflicted due to sales organizational changes, but the company remains confident in the 9%-11% target for next year given the large market opportunity and strong product set. CFO Mike Eastwood added that government downgrades and cancellations occurred prior to the shutdown, and while the environment is turbulent, the value proposition for government agencies remains strong. Steve Hasker also noted very positive customer reactions to Westlaw Advantage and Co-Counsel Legal, with early indications of behavioral changes among users.

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the current percentage of professional workflows automated by Agentic AI and how the introduction of these offerings might expand the Total Addressable Market (TAM) previously outlined at the 2024 Investor Day.

Answer

CEO Steve Hasker explained that workflow automation is still modest overall but varies by profession, with tax being more automated historically than legal. He noted that while the GenAI TAMs haven't been officially updated since the 20% increase was announced, the company is on track and will revise them as the product roadmap progresses. Chief Product Officer David Wong added that their approach is customer-driven, focusing on automating the most valuable and time-consuming tasks, like tax preparation, where Agentic AI can uniquely solve for numeracy gaps.

Drew McReynolds from RBC asked if there are underperforming products within the large 'other' revenue bucket, the current strategic view on Global Print and Reuters News, and whether a recession could accelerate AI adoption.

Answer

CFO Mike Eastwood indicated no significant divestitures are foreseen but portfolio refinement will continue. He affirmed the strategic importance of Global Print for its cash flow and stated no change in position on Reuters. CEO Steve Hasker noted that while they don't see a recession-driven acceleration in AI adoption yet, they are positioning products to highlight efficiency ROI in such a scenario, as economic stress often drives structural change.

Drew McReynolds of RBC Capital Markets inquired about the M&A pipeline, the competitive environment for AI startups, and Thomson Reuters' pricing strategy for its CoCounsel generative AI product.

Answer

CEO Steve Hasker stated the M&A pipeline is strong under new leadership, focusing on products that leverage TR's distribution. He noted that increased competition from startups in AI is a positive sign of market opportunity and expressed confidence in TR's position. Regarding CoCounsel pricing, Hasker explained the company prefers enterprise-wide models over per-seat pricing to align with the significant efficiency gains customers experience, ensuring value for both parties.

Drew McReynolds from RBC Capital Markets asked for a big-picture view on Canada's sovereign AI push and where TELUS sees the largest incremental revenue opportunities within that ecosystem.

Answer

President and CEO Darren Entwistle identified three key opportunities: leveraging existing data centers for a sovereign AI factory, driving internal productivity with AI, and external go-to-market through TELUS Digital. President of TELUS Digital Solutions, Tobias Dengel, added that their ability to use TELUS as 'customer zero' to scale AI solutions provides a significant competitive advantage.

Drew McReynolds asked about the role of Canadian telcos in the sovereign AI push and where TELUS sees the largest incremental revenue opportunities within this ecosystem.

Answer

President and CEO Darren Entwistle identified three key opportunities: leveraging existing data centers for a sovereign AI factory, internal AI adoption for massive productivity gains, and external go-to-market through TELUS Digital Solutions. Tobias Dengel, President of TELUS Digital, added that they are moving AI from concept to production, using TELUS as 'customer zero' to prove out solutions at scale.

Drew McReynolds from RBC Capital Markets followed up on the wireless discussion, asking if the B2C market is now largely commoditized. He also requested specific examples of how AI will drive cost savings and revenue growth by 2027, and asked about the potential for a share buyback (NCIB) once leverage targets are met.

Answer

EVP & CFO Doug French stated an NCIB would be considered after 2027. President of TELUS Digital, Tobias Dengel, provided detailed AI examples, including agent training copilots that reduce training time and frontline tools that cut call handle times while increasing CSAT. President & CEO Darren Entwistle argued against commoditization, stating TELUS must shift to selling on a service premium, improve product bundling, use AI for price optimization, and aggressively scale IoT solutions to create differentiation and value.

Drew McReynolds from RBC asked about the assumptions for wireless market volume growth underpinning the 2025 guidance. He also questioned what alternative growth opportunities exist and if the outlook would materially change if TELUS is unable to utilize Third Party Internet Access (TPIA) in Eastern Canada.

Answer

Zainul Mawji, EVP, explained the focus is on leveraging the existing customer base through increased product intensity and improved churn. Navin Arora, EVP, highlighted growth in B2B, SMB, and IoT. President and CEO Darren Entwistle added that significant opportunity exists within their current client base and stated the company's bold assumption is that the CRTC's pro-competitive TPIA decision will stand, aligning with the interests of Canadian consumers and businesses.

Drew McReynolds sought clarification on the wireless ARPU decline comparison and asked about the contribution of IoT to rebuilding network revenue growth.

Answer

CFO Doug French confirmed the ARPU comparison methodology was correct. He and executive Zainul Mawji discussed driving ARPU through premium bundles, brand differentiation, and a focus on overall household economics. They noted that despite ARPU pressure, a focus on efficiency is driving strong EBITDA performance, with growth expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.

Drew McReynolds from RBC Capital Markets asked for an overview of the company's near-term liquidity position, specifically requesting details on the 'bridge' of lender support and working capital improvements that will sustain the company until its adjusted EBITDA becomes consistently positive.

Answer

CFO Felicia DellaFortuna outlined a multi-pronged approach to strengthening the balance sheet. This includes cash proceeds from a recent asset sale (not yet in Q1 results), improving payment terms with material receivable providers, and generating upfront cash from new subscription initiatives. She also highlighted that the partnership with Playwire provides more favorable and predictable receipt terms. Finally, she noted that the significant reduction in the operating expense structure has lowered the gross profit breakeven point, creating a clearer path to positive cash flow.

Drew McReynolds from RBC requested clarification on the valuation of capitalized leases for the Freedom acquisition, noting a discrepancy between the public price tag and the figures on the financial statements. He asked for an explanation of the different valuation methods.

Answer

President and CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau explained the difference in lease valuation stems from differing accounting methodologies between Shaw and Videotron. He noted that Shaw's valuation included future renewals, whereas Videotron's historical method does not, resulting in a lower capitalized value on Quebecor's balance sheet, though the actual cash payments for leases remain as expected.

Drew McReynolds of RBC sought clarification on the $200 million annual CapEx guidance for Freedom, asked for an update on the core Videotron CapEx outlook, and inquired about the integration roadmap and potential synergies from the Freedom acquisition.

Answer

CFO Hugues Simard confirmed the $200 million annual CapEx guidance for Freedom excludes spectrum and that the core Videotron CapEx outlook of around $450 million remains on track. President and CEO Pierre Karl Péladeau explained that the company used the extended closing period to thoroughly plan for synergies and savings, and these initiatives are already being implemented.

Drew McReynolds of RBC requested quantification of a one-time provision reversal in telecommunications EBITDA, an update on the progress of IT migration and cost efficiency projects, and confirmation of the full-year CapEx guidance for Videotron.

Answer

CFO Hugues Simard explained that the net impact of provision movements was not material. He confirmed that cost efficiency initiatives are progressing well, with further improvements expected in coming quarters. He also reaffirmed that Videotron's full-year 2022 CapEx is anticipated to remain stable year-over-year.