Dylan Carden

Dylan Carden inquired about the improving quality of customer cohorts, asking if it's due to industry stabilization or Chewy's specific actions, and the sustainability of Autoship growth outperformance. He also followed up on Chewy+ margin accretion and its potential to become a majority of the business.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh attributed improving cohort quality to Chewy's actions, including pushing customers into Autoship and Chewy+, which leads to faster NESPAC consolidation. He noted improvements in Autoship's gross subscription adds and settlement rates, enhancing net retention. Chewy+ members are engaging with an average of three more categories than non-members, accelerating NESPAC curves. He stated that Chewy+ is expected to be gross margin rate dilutive initially but highly accretive on a dollar and contribution profit basis, with a strong return on ad spend (ROAS) of 6x, driving faster share of wallet consolidation.

Dylan Carden inquired about the factors contributing to the improving quality of customer cohorts year over year, asking if it's due to industry stabilization or Chewy's initiatives. He also questioned the sustainability of Autoship's outperformance and the long-term margin implications and strategic intent of the Chewy Plus program.

Answer

Sumit Singh, CEO & Director, Chewy, attributed improved cohort quality to increased customer engagement with Autoship and Chewy Plus, leading to faster NESPAC consolidation and improved retention rates. He explained that Chewy Plus members engage with more categories, and while the program is gross margin rate dilutive in early stages, it is expected to be highly accretive on a dollar and contribution profit basis, aiming to be the best pet membership program in the industry.

Dylan Carden asked for an update on the online penetration of the pet industry and whether Chewy expects to continue gaining market share as the post-pandemic channel shift normalizes.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh confirmed that the migration to online has normalized, with e-commerce having captured a larger share of the market. He affirmed that Chewy expects to continue gaining share, noting that the company's 2025 growth guidance of 6-7% is roughly double the expected overall market growth rate. He added that Chewy continues to capture a significant portion of every dollar that moves online in the pet category.

Dylan Carden of William Blair & Company asked about the potential impact on margins as active customer growth returns, questioning if the high Autoship penetration might decline and how marketing spend might adjust.

Answer

CEO Sumit Singh responded that newly acquired customers are considered higher quality, with strong adoption of repeatable categories and healthy NSPAC curves. He also highlighted the efficiency of converting existing site traffic at a lower customer acquisition cost. CFO David Reeder added that the expanding portfolio of high-margin offerings like health services and sponsored ads enhances the value proposition and profit flow-through for all customers.

Inquired about the strategy behind recent store closures and the current demand environment, particularly whether the company is abandoning its core lower-income consumer.

Answer

Store closures are a strategic rationalization of the fleet based on profitability and demographics, with no major increase in closures expected. Regarding the demand environment, the company is not abandoning its core customer but is successfully generating higher yield from them through lifestyle selling and an evolved assortment, which cash-pay customers are opting into.

Dylan Carden of William Blair & Company pointed out the apparent conservatism in the full-year comparable sales guidance despite the strong Q1 results and asked for the reasoning. He also inquired about the company's longer-term new store opening cadence.

Answer

Executive L. Fahs attributed the cautious full-year outlook to the uncertain macroeconomic environment and reports of declining consumer confidence. Regarding future growth, he stated that the company has not yet provided guidance on new store openings for 2026 and beyond.

Dylan Carden of William Blair asked about the apparent conservatism in the full-year comparable sales guidance following a strong Q1. He also inquired about the company's longer-term outlook for the pace of new store openings.

Answer

Executive L. Fahs confirmed that the cautious outlook for the remainder of the year is a direct result of the uncertain macroeconomic environment and recent declines in consumer confidence. Regarding future growth, he reiterated the guidance for 30-35 new stores in the current year but stated that the company has not yet provided guidance for new store openings in 2026 or beyond.

Dylan Carden asked for management's perspective on the apparent lack of a consumer repurchase cycle for eyewear and sought to reconcile the messaging of increasing promotional activity while also expressing a willingness to take more price.

Answer

CEO Reade Fahs acknowledged that the cash-pay customer has not yet shown a rebound but emphasized the company is focusing on controllable initiatives. He clarified that pricing and promotions are viewed together, with promotions targeting cash-pay customers and pricing architecture being re-evaluated for the growing managed care segment. He stated a belief that the company can expand its use of price as a lever going forward.

Dylan Carden asked about the drivers behind the improved inventory efficiency and sought to understand how much of the gross margin upside was due to tariff mitigation versus better inventory management.

Answer

CFO Jesse Timmermans credited the strong inventory performance to long-term initiatives and noted the benefit was seen across both Revolve and FORWARD segments. He attributed the gross margin beat to a combination of tariff mitigation, markdown algorithm improvements, healthy inventory turns, and owned brand expansion.

Dylan Carden questioned the rationale for maintaining marketing spend at approximately 15% of sales amid moderated revenue expectations and asked if the company is benefiting from improved marketing efficiency as competitors potentially pull back.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas explained that the 15% level is based on current trends and their assessment of the optimal spending zone. He stated that while they haven't yet seen a major environmental shift from competitors pulling back, Revolve's own marketing efficiency has been driven by strong internal execution and tactics, such as the successful REVOLVE Festival.

Dylan Carden followed up on the use of AI in performance marketing, asking if it was a proprietary technology. He also questioned if the lower return rate was meaningfully impacted by a shift in product mix towards lower-return categories.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas confirmed that the AI used to expand reach in performance marketing was their 'own proprietary technology.' Regarding the return rate, he stated that while category mix shift had a 'meaningful impact,' the geographic mix shift between domestic and international was a larger contributing factor to the reduction.

Dylan Carden of William Blair inquired about the international business, asking about its potential for accelerated growth, specific regional initiatives, and how the company manages potential margin dilution from its expansion.

Answer

Co-CEO Michael Karanikolas reported growth across all international regions, driven by market rebounds, improved service levels, and targeted marketing, with a specific highlight on China. He explained that while some regions have different margin profiles, they are still positive opportunities, and the international business is net-net similar in profitability to domestic. He also noted that scaling up offers long-term efficiency gains.

Dylan Carden from William Blair & Company asked about the dynamics that allowed ThredUp to achieve record gross margins alongside record new customer growth, which typically have an inverse relationship. He also sought details on the timing of certain costs and whether supply and processing were keeping pace with accelerating demand.

Answer

CFO Sean Sobers explained that the gross margin strength was driven by a growing mix of premium supply, which carries higher average selling prices (ASPs). He noted that for the second half of the year, they will focus on the customer experience for new buyers, including investments in pick, pack, and ship, which may slightly impact gross margins. CEO James Reinhart added that supply operations are setting records in requests and processing, effectively keeping pace with demand, driven by innovations like premium service kits.

Dylan Carden asked about the marketing spend philosophy, specifically if the plan is to maintain it at a high-teens level while driving leverage elsewhere in SG&A. He also questioned if AI initiatives could lead to sharper pricing and how the company views the impact of potential inflation on its consumer base compared to the post-COVID period.

Answer

CEO James Reinhart confirmed the strategy is to reinvest incremental profit into top-line growth, targeting a high-teens to 20% marketing-to-revenue ratio while leveraging SG&A. He noted that a dedicated team constantly runs pricing experiments to optimize the marketplace. Regarding inflation, he differentiated the current environment from 2022 by highlighting ThredUP's improved operational capacity to process supply and the potential for more efficient customer acquisition, positioning the company well even if consumers feel pinched.

Dylan Carden asked about the marketing spend outlook for 2025, the rationale behind the significant decrease in stock-based compensation, and the current state of facility capacity utilization.

Answer

CEO James Reinhart confirmed they have ample distribution center capacity and that the reduction in stock-based compensation is a deliberate choice to reduce shareholder dilution and prepare for future EPS growth. CFO Sean Sobers quantified the 2025 marketing spend at approximately 19% of revenue quarterly. Reinhart also attributed the increased marketing investment to strong returns, with LTV to CAC ratios at all-time highs driven by AI-enhanced product experiences.

Dylan Carden asked about the efficiency of the marketing line item, given improved buyer acquisition despite lower spend, and whether to expect increased investment next year. He also sought clarification on the Q4 guidance and the reasons for the business deceleration in Europe.

Answer

CEO James Reinhart confirmed that Q3 saw strong acquisition with less marketing spend, improving LTV-to-CAC ratios, and attributed this to fresh strategies post-Q2. He affirmed plans to continue investing marketing dollars efficiently, supported by operational upgrades like 360-degree photos. CFO Sean Sobers clarified the guidance includes Europe. Reinhart explained the EU revenue decline was by design, as the unit sheds lower-margin supply to transition to a consignment model, which is part of its long-term rightsizing strategy.

Dylan Carden asked for insight into the timeline for returning to total active customer growth, considering the historical lag effect after acquiring new clients.

Answer

CEO Matt Baer reiterated the company's focus on acquiring high-quality, high-LTV clients rather than just quantity, noting two straight quarters of new client growth and improving re-engagement and dormancy rates. CFO David Aufderhaar provided more specific timing, stating that excluding macro impacts, they expect a quarter-over-quarter increase in active clients at some point in fiscal 2026. He also highlighted that strong growth in revenue per active client is currently driving top-line performance, balancing the active client trend.

Dylan Carden asked for clarification on management's comment that strong Average Order Value (AOV) could present a headwind to future growth.

Answer

Executive David Aufderhaar explained that because AOV has been up for six consecutive quarters, the company will face increasingly difficult year-over-year comparisons. He noted the two-year stacked AOV growth was 13% in Q2. This, combined with the expectation that active clients will continue to decline into fiscal 2026, creates a more challenging environment for achieving revenue growth.

Dylan Carden inquired if Stitch Fix is leveraging its AI and data sets for customer engagement and retention, and also asked about the company's success in attracting new national brands.

Answer

CEO Matt Baer confirmed that AI is integral to all aspects of the business, including driving client engagement and reengagement through targeted, profitable promotions. He stated that the value proposition for national brands is compelling, offering them access to a highly engaged client base and a unique service that introduces their products to new customers outside their typical reach.

Dylan Carden of William Blair inquired about the specifics of the $20-30 million in cost savings in relation to prior SG&A guidance, and also asked for details on the performance drivers behind the Canadian and Brand Portfolio segments.

Answer

CFO Jared Poff clarified that the $20-30 million in savings are new cuts below the 2024 expense base, separate from a non-accrual of bonuses which also created favorability. CEO Doug Howe explained that Canada's weakness mirrors U.S. consumer sentiment, while in the Brand Portfolio, Topo's 84% growth offset top-line headwinds in Keds, which nonetheless saw significant margin expansion.

Dylan Carden asked if Designer Brands is losing market share in boots, whether assortment shifts are creating a 'water bed effect' with offsetting gains and losses, and if the company is risking lost sales by overcorrecting on seasonal inventory.

Answer

CEO Douglas Howe explained that the company intentionally planned its boot business down 15%, though it declined further due to weather. He emphasized the strategic goal to 'de-weatherize' the business and noted a recent rebound with colder weather. Howe stated they do not believe they are 'leaving money on the table,' as they are focused on driving traffic through enhanced marketing to complement the new assortment.

Dylan Carden from William Blair asked about the promotional strategy, the rationale for accelerating store closures to reach a 75/25 online/store mix, and how the company expects a negligible sales impact despite a 40% sales loss from closed stores.

Answer

CEO Lisa Harper explained that the accelerated store closures are a direct response to customers increasingly preferring the online channel, which is a more effective platform for the brand's expanding sub-brand strategy. She clarified the negligible sales impact for the year is because most closures are slated for late Q4, these stores have very low sales volumes, and the company will ramp up digital marketing to offset the un-retained portion of sales.

Dylan Carden of William Blair & Company, L.L.C. asked about the expected duration of the store closure program, the sustainability of the 70% customer retention rate post-closure, and the performance of new products during the recent period of softer traffic.

Answer

CFO Paula Dempsey stated that the primary store closure opportunity is concentrated in the current and next fiscal year, not a prolonged campaign. CEO Lisa Harper added they are testing larger store formats for the future. Chief Strategy and Planning Officer Ashlee Wheeler clarified that the 70% customer retention rate is a multi-year figure, not just for year one, and noted that new sub-brands sold through very well at full price despite the macro uncertainty.

Dylan Carden from William Blair & Company inquired about Torrid's long-term structural EBITDA margin potential, asking if the company is targeting a return to pre-pandemic levels or sees potential for greater efficiency. He also sought clarification on the store fleet strategy, specifically if the 50/50 mall-to-outdoor mix would be achieved mainly through closures and if that mix is considered the ultimate optimal target.

Answer

CEO Lisa Harper expressed confidence in a path back to low-to-mid-teens adjusted EBITDA margins in the next several years, citing the ability to leverage the newly built operational platform. CFO Paula Dempsey reiterated that the 50/50 store mix is the target for the next 3-5 years and will be achieved through a balanced approach of both closures and new openings. Both executives affirmed that, based on current data, the 50/50 mix is considered optimal.

The analyst asked about the drivers behind the sales cadence in Q1 (specifically the March improvement), the performance of recent new products, the strategy behind the elevated marketing spend, and the composition of the customer base (new vs. returning).

Answer

Annie Mitchell attributed the March momentum to both macro trends and the 'Cards on the Table' marketing investment. She noted Q2 marketing spend will be down slightly year-over-year due to a high-volume launch in the prior year's quarter, but investment in the brand will continue. Joe Vernachio added that the two new products, Canvas Piper and the utility pack, performed very well, shooting into the top 5 sellers, which is a strong proof point. Regarding customers, he stated it's a mix of both lapsed customers returning and new customers being acquired through sharper performance marketing. All internal leading indicators are positive.

Asked about the forward-looking quarterly cash burn rate, the trajectory of cash burn as revenue grows, and whether the current mid-40s gross margin is the new structural level.

Answer

The recent $11M quarterly operating cash use is a good baseline, with minor seasonal fluctuations and a small, almost unnoticeable uptick in H2 2025 for new inventory. Gross margins are expected to remain in the mid-40s for the rest of 2024, with some improvement anticipated in 2025 due to COGS benefits from new products.

Dylan Carden asked about latent demand and the customer repurchase cycle, particularly given the company's lower exposure to managed care. He also followed up on whether there is a broader pricing opportunity for the company, separate from the recent tariff-related adjustments.

Answer

Co-CEO Neil Blumenthal responded that by focusing on delivering superior value and service, the company can drive strong repurchase cycles relative to the category. On pricing, Co-CEO David Gilboa acknowledged a significant 'price umbrella' in the industry but stressed the importance of maintaining consumer trust through value. He noted customers have responded well to higher-priced product introductions. CFO Steve Miller added that like-for-like price increases are rare and strategic, informed by past successes.

Dylan Carden asked if the growing mix of fine jewelry, which may require more made-to-stock inventory, introduces more volatility to gross margin from input costs like gold, potentially altering the company's historically stable margin profile.

Answer

CFO Jeff Kuo responded that while Q1 gross margin was impacted by gold costs, the company's core data-driven and nimble approach to managing pricing and sourcing has not fundamentally changed. He noted that fine jewelry is still a smaller part of the business at 14% of bookings, and the company's operational DNA allows it to effectively manage input costs and maintain its strong margin structure, even with a different inventory profile for some fine jewelry items.

Questioned the drivers behind the significant marketing leverage, its connection to customer retention, future expectations for this leverage, and the interpretation of the demand shift in engagement rings to lower price points.

Answer

Marketing leverage is attributed to ongoing data-driven optimization, diversified marketing channels, and showroom efficiencies, rather than a strategic shift. The company expects to continue driving marketing leverage in 2025. The demand shift in engagement rings to sub-$5,000 price points is seen as a reflection of current consumer behavior, which the company is well-positioned to meet.

Dylan Carden asked for details on the impressive marketing leverage achieved, whether it was a strategic shift toward retention, and how that line item is expected to trend. He also inquired about the shift in demand to sub-$5,000 engagement rings.

Answer

CEO Beth Gerstein attributed the marketing leverage to ongoing data-driven optimization, diversified channels, and showroom efficiencies, rather than a strategic shift. CFO Jeff Kuo confirmed they expect to continue driving marketing leverage in 2025 while balancing investments for growth. Regarding price points, Beth Gerstein noted the strength under $5,000 reflects changing consumer behavior, which the company's broad assortment is positioned to meet.

Dylan Carden asked about the impact of weather on sales, whether the Q4 guidance assumes a ramp-up or reflects current trends, and if the full-price customer has been lost or is just trading down.

Answer

Executive Claire Spofford acknowledged a weather headwind early in the fall for seasonal categories, which later improved. Executive Mark Webb clarified the Q4 guidance is based on current business trends. Spofford explained the full-price customer situation is a mix shift, not a binary loss, with the direct channel showing more price sensitivity, noting that the May-June period had been unusually strong.

Dylan Carden from William Blair asked for a characterization of the guidance assumptions, particularly how the July trend was extrapolated and how potential election-related distractions were factored in. He also inquired about the priorities for free cash flow use following the dividend initiation and debt paydown.

Answer

Executive Mark Webb explained the guidance range: the high end assumes a return to pre-July full-price demand, while the mid-range assumes the current challenging trend persists. Executive Claire Spofford added that a recent customer survey indicated distraction from the election but also strong purchase intent for fall. Regarding capital allocation, Mark Webb reiterated the established priorities: first, investing in the business (OMS project, new stores), followed by debt reduction and the new dividend program, with no change to this hierarchy.

Dylan Carden of William Blair & Company asked about the impact of weather disruptions, the sustainability of the margin structure if growth moderates from low-double-digits, and the company's contingency plans for potential tariffs on goods from China.

Answer

CEO Fran Horowitz-Bonadies stated that the company does not blame weather for performance, relying on its global diversification and balanced assortments. COO Scott Lipesky defended the structural margin, citing a transformed and more productive store base, global growth opportunities, and a strong balance sheet to fund investments. Regarding tariffs, he confirmed that only 5-6% of U.S. receipts come from China and that the company's diversified sourcing from 17 countries provides flexibility to adapt if new tariffs are implemented.

Dylan Carden questioned the impact of weather on recent performance and whether the company's structural margin outlook depends entirely on maintaining low-double-digit growth. He also asked for an update on China production exposure and tariff risk.

Answer

CEO Fran Horowitz-Bonadies stated that the business is diversified and not reliant on weather. COO Scott Lipesky explained the margin structure is supported by a more productive store fleet, strong new store economics, and global growth, not just top-line rates. He clarified that U.S. imports from China are low at 5-6% and the company has an agile, diversified supply chain to mitigate potential tariff impacts.

Dylan Carden from William Blair inquired about the customer mix for the Abercrombie brand, specifically asking for details on the 'aging up' of the consumer compared to pre-pandemic levels and any data on new versus repeat customer purchases.

Answer

CFO & COO Scott Lipesky confirmed that data shows the Abercrombie customer has successfully aged up into the target mid-20s demographic, filling a white space that was intentionally created. He stated that marketing efforts are effectively driving both new customer acquisition and retention, with new product categories like Best Dressed Guest and YPB serving as key tools to keep existing customers engaged.

Dylan Carden from William Blair asked how the strategy to streamline running SKUs and align with competitors impacted the category's growth during the quarter.

Answer

Co-CEO Marc Maurer responded that the running category is growing very strongly, second only to the much smaller tennis category. He noted that the product portfolio is now more effectively distributed across different running styles, citing the success of key franchises like the Cloudmonster for elevated cushioning, the Cloudsurfer Next for engaging younger runners, and the Cloudrunner for its strength in the run specialty channel. This confirms On's successful perception as a core running brand.

Dylan Carden's associate, Alex, asked about the competitive promotional landscape heading into the holidays and the key initiatives for long-term EBIT margin recovery.

Answer

Former CEO Jim Conroy stated the promotional environment is stable and Boot Barn will not increase its promotional cadence, sticking to its everyday low price model. For long-term margin, he highlighted supplier contract renegotiations, distribution center efficiencies, and scaling a program to take direct possession of third-party vendor containers.

Dylan Carden from William Blair questioned why the strong operating margin flow-through seen in Q2 wouldn't be replicated or improved upon in Q3, given the accelerating comparable sales trend. He also asked about the quantifiable margin impact from recent store closures and the company's go-forward strategy for its U.S. store fleet.

Answer

Chief Financial Officer Christopher Work explained that the difference in margin flow-through between Q2 and Q3 is primarily due to a retail calendar shift, which moved approximately $10 million in sales and a corresponding $0.09 to $0.10 in EPS from Q3 into Q2. He also noted that reinstated incentive compensation costs are a partial offset to SG&A leverage. Regarding store closures, Work stated that the roughly 20-25 underperforming stores closed annually have a minimal impact on the bottom line. The go-forward strategy involves a multi-factor evaluation of each location, including profitability, its role in the local trade area, and the health of the shopping center.

The analyst asked about the range of store performance and productivity trends since 2017. He also inquired about long-term square footage goals, the timeline to return to consistent profitability, clarification on the pre-pandemic gross margin target, and whether higher freight costs are factored into the current guidance.

Answer

Executives emphasized the critical role of stores in their omnichannel strategy, noting that omnichannel customers are more valuable. They are taking a three-pronged approach: driving awareness, rationalizing the existing fleet to higher profitability standards, and adding new sites, but did not provide a specific square footage target. They believe profitability improvements are ongoing, citing real-time benefits from fulfillment center optimization ($5M annualized savings) and sourcing initiatives. They confirmed the goal is to get gross margins directionally at or better than pre-pandemic levels. Higher freight rate impacts are considered more of a 2025 issue.

Dylan Carden of William Blair & Company asked about the potential number of store closures as 25% of leases come due by 2026, the primary drivers for achieving SG&A leverage, and the strategy for managing excess cold-weather inventory.

Answer

President and CEO Samuel Sato explained that stores are evaluated individually against higher profitability hurdles upon lease renewal, emphasizing retail's strategic importance. Sato and CFO Heena Agrawal noted that SG&A leverage will stem from maturing initiatives like the Adairsville fulfillment center, which has a 73% lower variable CPU, and reduced capital expenditures. Regarding inventory, Sato stated that core seasonal products will be packed away, while trend-specific items will be marked down to ensure a clean position by year-end.