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EVP Bert Frost explained that while farmer economics are a concern, nitrogen is a non-discretionary nutrient essential for optimizing yield, representing about 25% of input costs. He believes farmers will economize elsewhere, such as on land rent. CEO W. Anthony Will added that farmers are incentivized to maximize yield to achieve profitability, which supports full nitrogen application rates.

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EVP Bert Frost described the fundamentals as differentiated by region. He noted that global corn inventories are at decade lows, but farm gate economics are more challenging than in recent years due to input costs. However, the corn-to-soybean ratio still favors corn planting in North America, supporting nitrogen demand. He characterized the market as challenging but historically acceptable for U.S. farmers.

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EVP Bert Frost acknowledged that risks always exist. He identified potential supply-side risks from geopolitical or gas-related outages and economic risks on the demand side, such as the timing of customer purchases. However, he reiterated that the overall outlook for the first half of the year remains positive.

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CEO Tony Will noted that nitrogen demand remains strong as it is a non-discretionary input for farmers. EVP Bert Frost added that while farmers are delaying some purchases, CF is well-positioned. For concerns, Frost listed potential currency devaluations, Chinese policies, European economic challenges, and the broader geopolitical environment as areas they monitor closely.

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President & CEO Ken Seitz responded that Nutrien is constructive on the potash market and 'likes when potash is affordable for growers' because it drives record demand. He characterized current prices as healthy, near 10-year historical averages. Regarding Brazil, he attributed the slight price softening to a seasonal lull before soybean planting and expects strong volumes to resume shortly.

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President and CEO Kenneth Seitz stated that phosphate fundamentals are expected to remain strong throughout 2025 due to robust demand and limited supply, which have led to historically high prices. For potash, he described it as a story of strengthening fundamentals, with prices having already increased 20% since the start of the year. He concluded that phosphate is expected to 'stay strong' while potash is 'becoming stronger,' suggesting both have a positive outlook but from different starting points.

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CEO Kenneth Seitz explained that Nutrien's volume plan aligns with maintaining its market share of about 19.5% within the global shipment forecast. He reiterated the company's long-standing target of around $60 per tonne for controllable cash cost. Seitz stated that the primary lever to combat inflation and maintain this cost level is the ongoing automation of mining machines, which improves productivity and asset utilization.

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Jeff Tarsi, EVP & President of Retail, explained that from their on-the-ground retail perspective, phosphate is a 'question mark' for growers due to its high price relative to other nutrients. He sees potential for demand softness in the fall. Mark Thompson, incoming CFO, echoed this, stating that the significant price disparity between potash and phosphate is a concern for customers, despite a tight global market.

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CEO Chuck Magro countered that there is no major disconnect, as farmers prioritize yield-enhancing technology in tight margin environments. He stressed that as long as Corteva delivers a return for the farmer through genetic gain—a 'price for value' strategy—demand for its premium seed technology will remain strong.

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CEO Chuck Magro explained the positive factors are strong planting progress, record demand for grains, tight corn inventories, and robust demand for technology. The "mixed" aspect stems from moderating crop prices that have tightened farmer margins in some areas like the U.S., the uncertainty around U.S. grain exports for the second half, and persistent pricing pressure in the Crop Protection market. These are the key areas being monitored.

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EVP Judd O'Connor (Seed) attributed the Q4 pressure to a healthy supply position from competitors but expects it to settle. He anticipates improvement in 2025 due to a stronger cost of goods position and planned price increases. CEO Charles Magro added that while Brazil is always competitive, the 2024 pricing also reflected a deliberate move to clear high-cost inventory, creating a healthier setup for 2025.

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CEO Chuck Magro acknowledged the question, explaining that past revisions were due to a deteriorating Crop Protection industry outlook, which has now stabilized. He expressed confidence in the 2025 forecast because the Seed business and cost productivity initiatives are performing on or ahead of plan, and the company has a high degree of control over these value-creation levers.

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CEO Kurt Begley acknowledged the challenges in South America, attributing them to import pressures and competitive share shifts. However, he emphasized that it remains a long-standing, cash-generative business with strong facilities. Begley expressed confidence that strategic pricing and cost actions will lead to stabilization in the region.

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Chairman & CEO Daniel Fisher suggested that immigration enforcement may actually be a net benefit for can volumes by shifting consumption from convenience stores to at-home multi-pack purchases. Regarding Europe, he described it as a 'land of opportunity' with tight supply, stating that continued mid-single-digit growth will require new capacity, which they plan to add within their existing capital framework.

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CEO Daniel Fisher expressed confidence in achieving the guided range, particularly the low end. He noted that while tariffs are a wildcard, the business is resilient in a recessionary environment. He also pointed to potential tailwinds, such as a weaker dollar benefiting the profitable European business, and affirmed his belief in the team's ability to navigate the uncertainty and solve identifiable problems effectively.

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CEO Daniel Fisher dismissed the alcohol health concern as 'noise,' stating his primary concern is the health of the North American end consumer. CFO Howard Yu confirmed the company will be 'overly aggressive' with buybacks, noting $290 million was repurchased year-to-date and that they will likely exceed the $1.3 billion plan for 2025.

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CEO Daniel Fisher confirmed that consumption in Argentina, particularly outside Buenos Aires, has dropped significantly. For EMEA, he attributed the strength to real demand driven by two factors: customers pricing more aggressively to gain share, and consumers having more relative discretionary income due to lower energy costs compared to a year ago. He noted any destocking/restocking impact was primarily a Q1 phenomenon, not a Q3 driver.

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President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach attributed the negative gap to a more deflationary resin environment than anticipated, driven by market dynamics following tariff announcements. He noted that while the company has closed its price gap to competitors, a return to a positive price/cost spread in 2026 will depend on the underlying resin markets stabilizing.

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President and CEO Dustin Semach responded that tariff exposure is minimal due to USMCA exemptions and is considered manageable through pricing or supply chain actions. He noted that the Food business often has contractual rights to pass through costs. Importantly, he stated that stronger volumes are not a prerequisite for pricing actions, as competitors would face similar cost pressures, likely resulting in market-wide adjustments.

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CEO Dustin Semach stated that while specific long-term guidance for each segment has not been issued, the end markets for both businesses support low-single-digit volume growth. He explained the strategy is to leverage this into mid-single-digit earnings growth and high cash flow conversion over the long term. He emphasized that the immediate focus for 2025 is realizing this potential in Food and stabilizing the Protective business before enhancing it further.

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CEO Dustin Semach stated that while the company has not issued long-term guidance for individual segments, both businesses serve end markets that support low single-digit volume growth. The overarching strategy is to leverage this into mid-single-digit earnings growth and high cash flow conversion. He emphasized that the immediate focus is on stabilizing the Protective business to achieve its underlying potential, while the Food business is already performing well and is expected to have another strong year.

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CEO Patrick Kivits identified volume development in the Protective business as the main uncertainty. President and CFO Dustin Semach added that throughout the year, the Food business has consistently outperformed expectations while Protective has underperformed. He stated the Q4 guidance reflects this current dynamic and is what they expect to happen, rather than being intentionally conservative.

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President & CEO Timothy Donahue acknowledged the various macro "noises" but emphasized that the beverage can continues to perform exceptionally well, citing recent data showing strong unit growth. He stated that the company focuses on what it can control, such as keeping costs low and ensuring product availability, rather than getting hypersensitive about external factors. He concluded that the long-term view on the health of the can industry remains very positive.

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CEO Timothy Donahue suggested thinking about the 'Other' segment generating around $100 million in income for the full year, noting Q3 results are highly dependent on the food can pack season. As for potential second-half risks, he cited the indirect impact of tariffs on consumer demand in fragile economies like Mexico, a summer selling season that proves less robust than expected, and uncertainty around the ultimate impact of tariffs on the Transit business.

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President and CEO Timothy Donahue explained that Crown could outperform the market if the end markets it serves, such as carbonated water and certain energy and alcoholic drinks, grow faster than the broader market. For Asia, he reiterated that positive volumes are expected in Southeast Asia in 2025, offset by declines in China, and that a full consumer recovery is likely still about 12 months away.

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President and CEO Timothy Donahue stated that while he believes the stock is undervalued, the company will remain 'opportunistic' rather than overly aggressive with share repurchases. On capital expenditures, he explained the reduction is a result of a constant refinement process and increased discipline, pushing teams to justify spending. He asserted that the company is not deferring necessary projects but is instead focused on getting a payback on significant recent investments.

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President and CEO Bruce Bodine described it as a tough choice, highlighting phosphate's high stripping margins against potash's better EBITDA-to-cash conversion due to lower capital intensity. He concluded they will invest appropriately in both. EVP and CFO Luciano Pires added that phosphate has significant operating leverage in market upturns.

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President and CEO Bruce Bodine clarified that the company is only providing production guidance, not sales guidance. He explained that the recent potash price appreciation was driven by fundamental shifts in the global supply-demand balance since December, including announced production cuts from major producers and operational issues in Laos.

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President and CEO Bruce Bodine expressed confidence, attributing the high price to a supply-constrained market rather than manipulation. He stated that the primary concern would be the announcement of significant new global capacity, which has not occurred. Until the fundamental supply picture changes, he expects realized stripping margins to remain strong into 2025. Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, added that elevated raw material costs for ammonia and sulfur also support the current high phosphate prices.

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CEO Pierre Brondeau clarified that the company is not taking new, specific actions in response to the tariffs. Instead, the impact will be offset by achieving the higher end of its existing cost-saving plans and by volume upside from a strategic shift to create grower pull-through for its products. These favorable items were already in motion.

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