Edlain Rodriguez

Edlain Rodriguez with Mizuho asked about the drivers behind Europe's exceptionally high operating leverage (37% profit increase on high single-digit volume growth) in Q4 2025, expectations for 2026 leverage, and whether Ron Lewis, as the new CEO, plans any changes or deviations in Ball's strategy.

Answer

CEO Ron Lewis attributed Europe's strong operating leverage to growing into existing capacity and the recent Benepack acquisition, expecting at least 2x operating leverage in 2026. He affirmed that Ball's strategy remains intact, focusing on execution excellence, customer proximity, driving the aluminum substrate shift, and leveraging the Ball Business System and EVA mindset for profitable growth.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the factors driving the exceptionally high operating leverage in Europe during Q4 and full-year 2025, the outlook for 2026 leverage, and whether there will be any changes in Ball's strategy under the new CEO.

Answer

CEO Ron Lewis attributed Europe's strong operating leverage to growing into available capacity and high can penetration in some categories, leading to volume growth above the algorithm. He expects at least 2x operating leverage in 2026, supported by the Benepack acquisition. He affirmed that Ball's strategy remains intact, focusing on execution, customer partnerships, driving the substrate shift to aluminum, and leveraging the Ball Business System and EVA mindset.

Edlain Rodriguez asked what worries management most for the upcoming year and beyond, distinguishing between factors under Ball's control and those outside of it. He also inquired about Ball's capital allocation strategy, specifically regarding share buybacks, and whether the company plans to be more opportunistic or aggressive given the perceived disconnect between its performance and stock price.

Answer

Daniel Fisher, CEO, expressed little worry, crediting his team for masterfully navigating significant challenges over the past few years, including geopolitical events, market shifts, and trade issues. He emphasized focusing on the team's energy and a winning formula rather than external political uncertainties. Regarding capital allocation, Mr. Fisher stated that Ball believes its stock is cheap and will be deliberate in returning value to shareholders, maintaining a consistent share buyback program as long as the outlook remains positive and constructive.

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Securities asked if Ball is preparing for a demand slowdown related to immigration enforcement actions. He also inquired about the supply-demand balance in the European market and whether new capacity might be needed soon.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher suggested that immigration enforcement could paradoxically benefit can volumes by shifting consumption from single-serve convenience store purchases to multi-pack grocery purchases for at-home use. Regarding Europe, he described it as a 'land of opportunity' and confirmed that sustained mid-single-digit growth would necessitate new capacity, potentially accelerating projects into the 2027-2028 timeframe within the existing capital plan.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about potential demand slowdowns from immigration enforcement and the supply-demand balance in the European market.

Answer

Chairman & CEO Daniel Fisher suggested that immigration enforcement may actually be a net benefit for can volumes by shifting consumption from convenience stores to at-home multi-pack purchases. Regarding Europe, he described it as a 'land of opportunity' with tight supply, stating that continued mid-single-digit growth will require new capacity, which they plan to add within their existing capital framework.

Edlain Rodriguez asked if Ball was preparing for a potential demand slowdown related to immigration enforcement and inquired about the supply-demand balance in Europe, including the need for new capacity.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher explained that he anticipates a potential benefit, not a slowdown, as consumption shifts from C-stores to multi-pack purchases at grocery stores. Regarding Europe, he described it as a 'land of opportunity' with strong growth requiring future capacity additions, which would be managed within their existing capital framework.

Edlain Rodriguez questioned whether the company could achieve its 11% to 14% EPS growth target for the year if volumes were to fall short due to tariffs, and what other levers could be pulled.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher expressed confidence in achieving the guided range, particularly the low end. He noted that while tariffs are a wildcard, the business is resilient in a recessionary environment. He also pointed to potential tailwinds, such as a weaker dollar benefiting the profitable European business, and affirmed his belief in the team's ability to navigate the uncertainty and solve identifiable problems effectively.

Edlain Rodriguez posed a big-picture question on whether growing health concerns about alcohol are a major risk for the company, and asked about the planned pace of share buybacks given the stock's recent performance.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher dismissed the alcohol health concern as 'noise,' stating his primary concern is the health of the North American end consumer. CFO Howard Yu confirmed the company will be 'overly aggressive' with buybacks, noting $290 million was repurchased year-to-date and that they will likely exceed the $1.3 billion plan for 2025.

Edlain Rodriguez expressed surprise at the significant volume decline in Argentina due to economic conditions and asked for the primary drivers of the strong recovery in Europe, questioning if it was true consumer demand or simply restocking.

Answer

CEO Daniel Fisher confirmed that consumption in Argentina, particularly outside Buenos Aires, has dropped significantly. For EMEA, he attributed the strength to real demand driven by two factors: customers pricing more aggressively to gain share, and consumers having more relative discretionary income due to lower energy costs compared to a year ago. He noted any destocking/restocking impact was primarily a Q1 phenomenon, not a Q3 driver.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for Nutrien's near-term pricing outlook across different nutrients (potash, nitrogen, phosphate), inquiring which are better positioned for an uptick or if prices need to take a breather.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, provided a constructive outlook for potash, citing expected demand of 74-77 million tons in 2026, supply challenges, strong affordability, and low channel inventories (e.g., China port inventories down 1 million tons). For ammonia and urea, he noted easing export restrictions from China, strong demand from India, and anticipated seasonal demand firming urea pricing, alongside supply challenges for ammonia. He suggested phosphate prices, while elevated, would likely remain tight due to supply, despite potential reduced fall volumes.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for Nutrien's sense of near-term pricing movement across different nutrients, specifically which ones are better positioned for an uptick or if prices need to take a breather.

Answer

Ken Seitz, President and CEO, expressed a constructive outlook for potash into 2026, citing strong demand projections (74-77 million tons), low channel inventories (e.g., China), and affordability. He noted firming urea pricing due to seasonal demand and supply challenges in ammonia. Phosphate prices are elevated but the market is expected to remain tight despite potential reduced fall volumes.

Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho Securities asked about potash pricing strategy, noting its affordability relative to other nutrients and questioning if Nutrien prefers this position. He also inquired about the significance of a recent minor price drop in Brazil.

Answer

President & CEO Ken Seitz responded that Nutrien is constructive on the potash market and 'likes when potash is affordable for growers' because it drives record demand. He characterized current prices as healthy, near 10-year historical averages. Regarding Brazil, he attributed the slight price softening to a seasonal lull before soybean planting and expects strong volumes to resume shortly.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for a comparative view on the market fundamentals for potash versus phosphate over the next 6 to 12 months, pressing for a choice on which is better positioned.

Answer

President and CEO Kenneth Seitz stated that phosphate fundamentals are expected to remain strong throughout 2025 due to robust demand and limited supply, which have led to historically high prices. For potash, he described it as a story of strengthening fundamentals, with prices having already increased 20% since the start of the year. He concluded that phosphate is expected to 'stay strong' while potash is 'becoming stronger,' suggesting both have a positive outlook but from different starting points.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the outlook for potash cost per tonne in 2025, given the flat volume guidance, and whether any improvement should be expected.

Answer

CEO Kenneth Seitz explained that Nutrien's volume plan aligns with maintaining its market share of about 19.5% within the global shipment forecast. He reiterated the company's long-standing target of around $60 per tonne for controllable cash cost. Seitz stated that the primary lever to combat inflation and maintain this cost level is the ongoing automation of mining machines, which improves productivity and asset utilization.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about phosphate affordability concerns, noting another major player seemed less worried, and questioned what was driving Nutrien's caution about high prices impacting demand.

Answer

Jeff Tarsi, EVP & President of Retail, explained that from their on-the-ground retail perspective, phosphate is a 'question mark' for growers due to its high price relative to other nutrients. He sees potential for demand softness in the fall. Mark Thompson, incoming CFO, echoed this, stating that the significant price disparity between potash and phosphate is a concern for customers, despite a tight global market.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for a sense of the split between energy storage and EV demand within the lithium market and how these percentages are expected to shift over the medium term.

Answer

Kent Masters, CEO, stated that fixed storage currently accounts for about a quarter of the market and is growing at twice the rate of EVs. He expects the market to remain more EV-oriented long-term, noting that fixed storage might be more exposed to substitute technologies.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for Albemarle's sense of EV demand versus energy storage demand and how those percentages might shift over the medium term.

Answer

CEO Kent Masters stated that fixed storage is about a quarter of the market today and growing at twice the rate of EVs. He expects the market to remain more EV-oriented long-term, though fixed storage might reach half the market, noting it's more exposed to substitute technologies than EVs.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the potential impact on Corteva if farmers shift acreage from corn to soybeans, and whether the company is well-positioned to offset any resulting headwinds.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro reiterated Corteva's sensitivity estimate of approximately $10 million of EBITDA for every million acres shifted from corn to soybeans. He stated that this potential shift is already factored into the company's 2026 outlook of $4.1 billion operating EBITDA, and while it's too early to predict the exact acreage shift, Corteva's market-leading position in both crops helps mitigate the impact.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the potential impact on Corteva if farmers shift acreage from corn to soybeans, and whether the company is well-positioned to easily offset any resulting headwinds.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro stated that Corteva's sensitivity is approximately $10 million of EBITDA for every million acres shifted from corn to soybeans. He noted that this potential shift is already factored into the company's 2026 EBITDA outlook of $4.1 billion. Magro acknowledged that it's too early to predict the exact acreage shift, as farmers still have time to make choices, and global trade routes remain a factor.

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Securities asked about the perceived disconnect between low crop prices and rising input costs and questioned how seed prices can continue to increase in such an environment.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro countered that there is no major disconnect, as farmers prioritize yield-enhancing technology in tight margin environments. He stressed that as long as Corteva delivers a return for the farmer through genetic gain—a 'price for value' strategy—demand for its premium seed technology will remain strong.

Edlain Rodriguez asked for clarification on why the agricultural fundamentals were described as "mixed" and what the primary concerns are for management.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro explained the positive factors are strong planting progress, record demand for grains, tight corn inventories, and robust demand for technology. The "mixed" aspect stems from moderating crop prices that have tightened farmer margins in some areas like the U.S., the uncertainty around U.S. grain exports for the second half, and persistent pricing pressure in the Crop Protection market. These are the key areas being monitored.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the drivers of competitive pressure in the Latin American Seed market during Q4 and whether this pressure is expected to continue.

Answer

EVP Judd O'Connor (Seed) attributed the Q4 pressure to a healthy supply position from competitors but expects it to settle. He anticipates improvement in 2025 due to a stronger cost of goods position and planned price increases. CEO Charles Magro added that while Brazil is always competitive, the 2024 pricing also reflected a deliberate move to clear high-cost inventory, creating a healthier setup for 2025.

An analyst on behalf of Edlain Rodriguez noted that 2024 guidance had been lowered multiple times and asked what provides confidence in the initial 2025 outlook.

Answer

CEO Chuck Magro acknowledged the question, explaining that past revisions were due to a deteriorating Crop Protection industry outlook, which has now stabilized. He expressed confidence in the 2025 forecast because the Seed business and cost productivity initiatives are performing on or ahead of plan, and the company has a high degree of control over these value-creation levers.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the company's share repurchase strategy, specifically if there was consideration to be more aggressive during a recent stock downturn, and the priority of achieving the targeted leverage. She also inquired about the specific surprises that led to Europe's outperformance in Q3.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue explained that reaching the leverage target earlier was due to higher cash generation, earnings, and favorable currency, not a specific priority. He noted that share repurchases were opportunistic later in Q3. For Europe, he stated that a strong campaign was expected, with broad-based growth across the perimeter-based portfolio benefiting from a robust tourism season.

Edlain Rodriguez asked if Crown Holdings considered being more aggressive with share repurchases during the stock's down spell after the last earnings call, or if achieving the targeted leverage was a higher priority. He also inquired about the specific surprises that led to Europe's 12% volume growth, which outperformed expectations.

Answer

President and CEO Tim Donahue clarified that achieving the targeted leverage was not a higher priority, but rather the company reached it earlier than anticipated due to stronger cash generation, higher earnings, and favorable currency translation. He explained that share repurchases were timed later in Q3 as the company gained more comfort with the season's outcome. Regarding Europe, Donahue stated that a strong campaign was expected, and the 12% growth was broad-based across their perimeter-based European portfolio, benefiting from a very strong tourism season.

Edlain Rodriguez inquired about the potential impact of U.S. immigration enforcement on demand, asking what Crown is hearing from its customers regarding volume impacts and the level of concern.

Answer

President & CEO Timothy Donahue acknowledged the various macro "noises" but emphasized that the beverage can continues to perform exceptionally well, citing recent data showing strong unit growth. He stated that the company focuses on what it can control, such as keeping costs low and ensuring product availability, rather than getting hypersensitive about external factors. He concluded that the long-term view on the health of the can industry remains very positive.

Edlain Rodriguez asked if the strong Q1 income from the 'Other' segment, driven by food cans, represents a good run rate for the rest of the year. He also inquired about what potential negative events could cause second-half 2025 results to fall below the prior year's.

Answer

CEO Timothy Donahue suggested thinking about the 'Other' segment generating around $100 million in income for the full year, noting Q3 results are highly dependent on the food can pack season. As for potential second-half risks, he cited the indirect impact of tariffs on consumer demand in fragile economies like Mexico, a summer selling season that proves less robust than expected, and uncertainty around the ultimate impact of tariffs on the Transit business.

Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho asked under what circumstances Crown might outgrow the North American market and inquired about the expected timeline for a volume recovery in the Asian business.

Answer

President and CEO Timothy Donahue explained that Crown could outperform the market if the end markets it serves, such as carbonated water and certain energy and alcoholic drinks, grow faster than the broader market. For Asia, he reiterated that positive volumes are expected in Southeast Asia in 2025, offset by declines in China, and that a full consumer recovery is likely still about 12 months away.

Edlain Rodriguez questioned the company's capital deployment strategy, specifically how it balances share buybacks with a rising stock price, and why capital expenditure guidance continues to be ratcheted down.

Answer

President and CEO Timothy Donahue stated that while he believes the stock is undervalued, the company will remain 'opportunistic' rather than overly aggressive with share repurchases. On capital expenditures, he explained the reduction is a result of a constant refinement process and increased discipline, pushing teams to justify spending. He asserted that the company is not deferring necessary projects but is instead focused on getting a payback on significant recent investments.

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Securities asked about the outlook for 2026 and beyond, highlighting the disconnect between crop prices and fertilizer input costs for farmers and questioning how this dynamic will develop.

Answer

EVP Bert Frost explained that while farmer economics are a concern, nitrogen is a non-discretionary nutrient essential for optimizing yield, representing about 25% of input costs. He believes farmers will economize elsewhere, such as on land rent. CEO W. Anthony Will added that farmers are incentivized to maximize yield to achieve profitability, which supports full nitrogen application rates.

Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho Securities asked for an assessment of the current agricultural fundamentals globally and in the U.S., considering grain inventories and crop prices.

Answer

EVP Bert Frost described the fundamentals as differentiated by region. He noted that global corn inventories are at decade lows, but farm gate economics are more challenging than in recent years due to input costs. However, the corn-to-soybean ratio still favors corn planting in North America, supporting nitrogen demand. He characterized the market as challenging but historically acceptable for U.S. farmers.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the potential downside risks to the currently positive outlook for the nitrogen market, including supply, demand, and pricing.

Answer

EVP Bert Frost acknowledged that risks always exist. He identified potential supply-side risks from geopolitical or gas-related outages and economic risks on the demand side, such as the timing of customer purchases. However, he reiterated that the overall outlook for the first half of the year remains positive.

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho asked about changes in farmer and retailer behavior due to challenging crop prices and inquired about any key concerns for management heading into 2025.

Answer

CEO Tony Will noted that nitrogen demand remains strong as it is a non-discretionary input for farmers. EVP Bert Frost added that while farmers are delaying some purchases, CF is well-positioned. For concerns, Frost listed potential currency devaluations, Chinese policies, European economic challenges, and the broader geopolitical environment as areas they monitor closely.

Edlain Rodriguez from Mizuho Securities asked about the challenged South American business, inquiring about potential fixes and the long-term strategic view of Magneira's presence in the region.

Answer

CEO Kurt Begley acknowledged the challenges in South America, attributing them to import pressures and competitive share shifts. However, he emphasized that it remains a long-standing, cash-generative business with strong facilities. Begley expressed confidence that strategic pricing and cost actions will lead to stabilization in the region.

Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho Securities asked about the persistent negative price-to-raw material cost gap in the Protective segment and the prospects for narrowing it through pricing actions in the second half or next year.

Answer

President, CEO & Director Dustin Semach attributed the negative gap to a more deflationary resin environment than anticipated, driven by market dynamics following tariff announcements. He noted that while the company has closed its price gap to competitors, a return to a positive price/cost spread in 2026 will depend on the underlying resin markets stabilizing.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the company's ability to pass through potential tariff-related cost increases, whether stronger volumes are needed to do so, and which business segment would find it easier to implement such price hikes.

Answer

President and CEO Dustin Semach responded that tariff exposure is minimal due to USMCA exemptions and is considered manageable through pricing or supply chain actions. He noted that the Food business often has contractual rights to pass through costs. Importantly, he stated that stronger volumes are not a prerequisite for pricing actions, as competitors would face similar cost pressures, likely resulting in market-wide adjustments.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the long-term earnings power of the Food and Protective business segments, specifically inquiring about potential volume and margin profiles for 2026 and beyond.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach stated that while the company has not issued long-term guidance for individual segments, both businesses serve end markets that support low single-digit volume growth. The overarching strategy is to leverage this into mid-single-digit earnings growth and high cash flow conversion. He emphasized that the immediate focus is on stabilizing the Protective business to achieve its underlying potential, while the Food business is already performing well and is expected to have another strong year.

Edlain Rodriguez asked about the long-term earnings power of Sealed Air's Food and Protective businesses, seeking clarity on potential volume and margin profiles for 2026 and beyond.

Answer

CEO Dustin Semach stated that while specific long-term guidance for each segment has not been issued, the end markets for both businesses support low-single-digit volume growth. He explained the strategy is to leverage this into mid-single-digit earnings growth and high cash flow conversion over the long term. He emphasized that the immediate focus for 2025 is realizing this potential in Food and stabilizing the Protective business before enhancing it further.

Edlain Rodriguez noted the company's trend of exceeding expectations and asked if the Q4 guidance was conservative, seeking to understand the primary sources of uncertainty in their forecasting.

Answer

CEO Patrick Kivits identified volume development in the Protective business as the main uncertainty. President and CFO Dustin Semach added that throughout the year, the Food business has consistently outperformed expectations while Protective has underperformed. He stated the Q4 guidance reflects this current dynamic and is what they expect to happen, rather than being intentionally conservative.

Edlain Rodriguez asked, given current market dynamics, whether management would prefer to allocate more capital to the phosphate or potash business.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine described it as a tough choice, highlighting phosphate's high stripping margins against potash's better EBITDA-to-cash conversion due to lower capital intensity. He concluded they will invest appropriately in both. EVP and CFO Luciano Pires added that phosphate has significant operating leverage in market upturns.

Edlain Rodriguez sought clarification on whether sales volumes would match production guidance and questioned why potash producers hadn't pushed for price increases earlier, given that farmers could seemingly afford them based on stable corn prices.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine clarified that the company is only providing production guidance, not sales guidance. He explained that the recent potash price appreciation was driven by fundamental shifts in the global supply-demand balance since December, including announced production cuts from major producers and operational issues in Laos.

Edlain Rodriguez pointed out that phosphate affordability is an outlier compared to other nutrients and asked whether management views this as a positive sign of strength or a reason for apprehension.

Answer

President and CEO Bruce Bodine expressed confidence, attributing the high price to a supply-constrained market rather than manipulation. He stated that the primary concern would be the announcement of significant new global capacity, which has not occurred. Until the fundamental supply picture changes, he expects realized stripping margins to remain strong into 2025. Jenny Wang, EVP of Commercial, added that elevated raw material costs for ammonia and sulfur also support the current high phosphate prices.

Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho inquired about the specific actions being taken to offset the $15-$20 million tariff headwind and whether these measures were incremental or pre-planned.

Answer

CEO Pierre Brondeau clarified that the company is not taking new, specific actions in response to the tariffs. Instead, the impact will be offset by achieving the higher end of its existing cost-saving plans and by volume upside from a strategic shift to create grower pull-through for its products. These favorable items were already in motion.