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    Edward Hugo Firth

    Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Stifel

    Edward Hugo Firth is a Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), a Stifel company, specializing in UK banks research. Having begun his career as Head of Financial Planning and Head of Investor Relations at NatWest, he advanced to become Head of European Banks Research at Macquarie before joining KBW in 2017. Firth covers major UK financial institutions and has maintained a reputation as a leading analyst in the banking sector, drawing on over 25 years of experience since starting as a UK bank analyst in 1999. He holds a Chemistry degree from Durham University and is recognized for his analytical rigor and sector expertise, though specific performance metrics and licensing details are not publicly reported.

    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership

    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Ed Firth of KBW questioned the bank's stated interest rate sensitivity, noting that margins have expanded despite falling rates. He asked if the bank can continue to offset rate pressure through pricing and at what rate level this becomes challenging.

    Answer

    Executive Paul Thwaite highlighted recent investments in dynamic pricing capabilities that allow for better management of the deposit book. CFO Katie Murray advised against ignoring the sensitivity disclosure but noted it's based on a static balance sheet. She explained that factors like favorable deposit mix shifts and abating mortgage headwinds have helped performance. She believes pricing flexibility would remain even at lower interest rates.

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    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to NatWest Group (NWG) leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Edward Hugo Firth of KBW asked about capital management, questioning the outlook for open market buybacks given the headwinds from a higher share price and upcoming Basel III implementation. He also inquired about the dividend policy, asking if the 40% payout ratio is a strict formula or if it has a progressive element to smooth earnings volatility.

    Answer

    CFO Katie Murray confirmed that while a government buyback would be more expensive, the bank plans for share price movements and remains confident in its capital generation to stay within its 13-14% CET1 target range. She stated that the dividend policy is a strict application of an 'around 40% payout' ratio and that investors should not expect that to change.

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    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership

    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Edward Hugo Firth requested a divisional breakdown of the 8% Other Operating Income (OOI) growth and inquired about the company's perspective on inorganic M&A activity versus share buybacks, especially with potential targets becoming available.

    Answer

    Executive William Leon Chalmers detailed that the OOI growth was broad-based, with strong contributions from Retail (transportation, cards), IP&I, and Lloyds Bank Investments. On M&A, he stated the strategy is primarily organic, and while opportunities are reviewed, they are assessed against strict value, speed, and risk criteria, with the company currently confident in its internal strategy.

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    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) leadership • Q3 2024

    Question

    Edward Hugo Firth asked if net interest income would follow the margin guidance next year and if the non-banking charge would decrease in a falling rate environment. He also questioned the strategy of buying back shares above tangible book value and how this decision weighs against dividends or potential M&A.

    Answer

    Executive William Leon Chalmers clarified that NII is a function of margin, AIEAs, and non-banking NII (NBNII). He explained that NBNII is expected to increase due to financing lags and continued business activity growth, even with falling rates. On capital return, he stated the board remains committed to buybacks, seeing significant value even above TNAV, a view shared by investors. He reiterated a cautious M&A approach, with a high bar for strategic fit, risk, and value creation.

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    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to HSBC HOLDINGS (HSBC) leadership

    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to HSBC HOLDINGS (HSBC) leadership • Q1 2025

    Question

    Edward Hugo Firth asked if guidance should be adjusted for the weaker dollar, whether the bank is already in its 'plausible downside scenario' given trade flows, and about the BoCom accounting, questioning why HSBC didn't subscribe to the new capital raise if its valuation is high.

    Answer

    Georges Elhedery, an executive, clarified the downside scenario is more adverse than the current situation and that HSBC was happy with its existing BoCom holding. Manveen Kaur, an executive, confirmed a weaker dollar impacts both costs and revenues, which will be updated quarterly. She reiterated the BoCom dilution has an insignificant impact on CET1 and distributions, and the bank's accounting treatment reflects its status as an associate.

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    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to BARC.L leadership

    Edward Hugo Firth's questions to BARC.L leadership • Q1 2024

    Question

    Edward Hugo Firth asked for an update on the capital impact from US cards regulatory changes, whether the German consumer business disposal would offset it, and if Q3 would represent a low point for capital, potentially affecting distributions.

    Answer

    Group Finance Director Angela Cross confirmed the expected £16 billion RWA impact in Q3 but noted it would be managed through organic capital generation, RWA efficiency, and other actions. She stated that the German disposal is progressing and reiterated that the bank's overall capital distribution plans, including returning over £10 billion from 2024-2026, remain unchanged.

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