Edward Kelly

Edward Kelly asked about the slowdown in total paid member growth (5% this quarter, down from previous years), whether this trend is U.S.-centric, if growth has stabilized, and if the exit rate is lower than 5.2%.

Answer

Gary Millerchip, Chief Financial Officer, acknowledged a slight deceleration in year-over-year membership growth, partly due to cycling strong prior-year periods. He expressed confidence in continued growth opportunities through new warehouse openings (especially internationally driving new sign-ups), improving renewal rates, and ongoing efforts to enhance membership value, such as extended hours and Instacart benefits.

Edward Kelly asked about the recent slowdown in total paid member growth, inquiring if it's more pronounced in the U.S. and if there's any stabilization, given that the exit rate might be lower than 5.2%.

Answer

Gary Millerchip (CFO, Costco Wholesale Corporation) acknowledged that year-over-year member growth has slowed slightly from previous years due to cycling strong growth, but expressed satisfaction with overall membership health, including new member recruitment and executive upgrades. He highlighted continued opportunities through warehouse maturity, new openings (especially international), improved renewal rates, and adding membership value.

Edward Kelly asked about the outlook for tariffs, their impact on gross margin, Costco's approach to price increases and elasticity, and its competitive positioning, including potential for incremental margin pressure.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip explained that Costco's teams have effectively navigated the fluid tariff environment through experienced buyers, limited SKU count, and global buying power. Strategies include absorbing costs, improving efficiency, working with suppliers for offsets, sourcing from different countries, and rotating items. President and CEO Ron Vachris emphasized an 'offensive approach' to mitigate tariff impacts, stating that passing on price is a last resort, and Costco aims to be the first to lower prices when opportunities arise.

Edward Kelly asked about the outlook for tariffs' impact on gross margin, the likelihood of price increases, elasticity considerations, Costco's competitive positioning, and potential incremental margin pressure in coming quarters.

Answer

CFO Gary Millerchip described the fluid tariff environment and Costco's multi-pronged approach, including absorbing costs, working with suppliers for offsets, global buying, sourcing from different countries, and item rotation. President and CEO Ron Vachris emphasized an 'offensive approach' to mitigate tariffs, aiming to be the last to raise prices and the first to lower them, using all available tools.

Edward Kelly asked about the outlook for tariffs over the next few quarters, Costco's pricing strategy in response to other retailers potentially raising prices, the elasticity associated with this, and whether Costco plans to be offensive or expects incremental margin pressure.

Answer

EVP & CFO Gary Millerchip stated that the tariff environment remains fluid but Costco's teams have proactively managed impacts through experienced buyers, limited SKU count flexibility, and global buying power. Strategies include absorbing costs, improving efficiency, working with suppliers for offsets, sourcing from different countries, and rotating items. He believes they have largely mitigated current tariff impacts. President and CEO Ron Vachris emphasized an offensive approach, aiming to be the last to raise prices and first to lower them, treating tariffs like any commodity increase.

Edward Kelly asked about initiatives to improve store throughput, particularly at checkout, and whether extending warehouse hours was being considered to alleviate congestion.

Answer

Executive Ron Vachris confirmed that improving checkout speed is a primary focus, with technology like front-door scanning and self-checkout enhancements being key initiatives. On extending store hours, he stated that while it is 'not off the table' and is something they look at, there are no definitive plans in place at this time.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo & Company asked about the outlook for capital expenditures, which have been increasing, and whether there are any significant changes ahead in project priorities.

Answer

Executive Gary Millerchip responded that there is no major change in the company's capital allocation philosophy. He explained that the gradual increase in CapEx reflects continued business growth, new warehouse openings, associated inflation, and increased investment in technology to modernize platforms. He reiterated that the primary focus remains on maintaining the existing fleet, opening 25-30 new warehouses annually, and updating the supply chain to support growth.

Edward Kelly asked about Five Below's strategy for building on its strong results next year, identifying key trends driving current performance, and assessing the potential to 'comp the comp' against these strong figures.

Answer

CEO Winnie Park emphasized the accelerating flywheel effect from customer focus, leaning into broader lifestyle trends for Gen Alpha, Gen Z, and Millennials, and redirecting marketing spend to social media. She also highlighted the customer's receptivity to price points beyond $5, seeing significant future opportunities in personalized marketing and further price point expansion.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo inquired about the upcoming holiday season assortment and questioned the implied low single-digit comparable sales guidance for Q4, noting the favorable comparison and previous comments about missed sales opportunities.

Answer

CEO Winnie Park detailed the holiday strategy, focusing on creating a 'gift destination' with strong assortments in gifting, lounge, and decor. Interim CFO & COO Kenneth Bull explained that the Q4 guidance remains unchanged from the start of the year, reflecting the competitive holiday landscape and potential consumer uncertainty.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo & Company asked a broader question about the potential for long-term margin recapture and what management considers an appropriate EBIT margin for the business moving forward.

Answer

CEO Winnie Park emphasized that driving top-line growth is a key focus and that current tariff challenges have accelerated beneficial work on vendor and price diversification. COO Ken Bull added that while the focus is on navigating the current year, they expect operating margin expansion in a more normalized environment as they realize the benefits of these accelerated initiatives.

Edward Kelly sought clarity on margin drivers for the next fiscal year, specifically asking about potential shrink benefits, the ongoing headwind from labor investments, and the quantifiable impact of incentive compensation.

Answer

Interim CEO Ken Bull deferred detailed 2025 guidance to the next earnings call, citing uncertainties like potential tariffs. However, he provided a key modeling insight: excluding incentive compensation headwinds, the company anticipates it would begin to leverage SG&A expenses at a 3% comparable sales growth threshold. He emphasized that this should be considered on an adjusted basis.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo Securities asked whether Five Below's issues are self-inflicted and fixable or if they are more structural due to competition, and inquired about the sustainable long-term EBIT margin after planned investments in value and labor.

Answer

Interim President and CEO Kenneth Bull asserted that the company's problems are "fixable" and not structural, attributing them to post-pandemic strategies that had unintended long-term consequences. He stated that Five Below lost focus on its core teen and preteen demographic. Regarding competition, Bull expressed confidence that when the company executes its core mission effectively, it performs well regardless of the competitive landscape. The question on long-term EBIT margin was not directly answered with a specific target.

Edward Kelly inquired about the anticipated mix of multi-price offerings for next year, considering conversions and merchandising efforts, and how this strategy will influence driving comp growth through traffic versus ticket.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon reiterated that 85% of the store remains $2 or less, indicating early stages of multi-price expansion. He expects continued benefits from multi-price in seasonal and everyday essentials, believing the mix will increase significantly over time, driving customer discovery and value, which will influence both traffic and ticket.

Edward Kelly asked about the anticipated mix of multi-price offerings for the next fiscal year, including planned conversions and merchandising efforts, and how this strategy is expected to drive comp sales, specifically in terms of traffic versus ticket.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon reiterated that 85% of the store remains priced at $2 or less, indicating the early stages of multi-price expansion. He expects multi-price to continue benefiting seasonal and everyday essential assortments, driving discovery and higher tickets while maintaining the brand's value proposition.

Edward Kelly questioned the wide 2%-6% comp sales range for the second half of the year, given accelerating pricing and lower-than-expected elasticity, and asked for quantification of new headwinds like incremental tariffs and liability claims.

Answer

CFO Stuart Glendinning attributed the wide comp range to market volatility and consumer reaction to general price increases. He clarified that general liability costs are rising due to higher settlement costs across the industry, not an increase in claims, and noted slight increases in shrink and markdowns.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked if Dollar Tree can sustain its historical 35-36% gross margin level over time despite significant China tariffs, and inquired about the role of various mitigation levers, particularly pricing, in achieving this.

Answer

CFO Stewart Glendinning affirmed confidence in meeting the current year's gross margin guidance, supported by favorable freight costs and strong merchant execution. CEO Michael Creedon emphasized that the company uses its five mitigation levers in harmony, starting with supplier negotiations and using multi-price flexibility as a final tool to meet customer needs, rather than relying solely on price increases.

Edward Kelly asked about the potential $20 million per month earnings impact from the second round of tariffs, which is not included in guidance, and inquired about the company's mitigation strategies and confidence level in offsetting it, including the role of new price points like $1.50 and $1.75.

Answer

CEO Mike Creedon explained that while the company successfully mitigated 90% of the first tariff round, the second round was excluded from the outlook due to significant uncertainty. He detailed the company's five-point mitigation playbook, including supplier negotiations, spec changes, and leveraging multi-price flexibility. Creedon confirmed that new price points are part of a broader strategy to manage the overall inflationary environment, not just tariffs.

Edward Kelly asked about the company's strategy to mitigate the estimated $20 million per month impact from the second round of tariffs, which is not included in guidance, and questioned the role new price points like $1.50 and $1.75 could play in these efforts.

Answer

CEO Michael Creedon explained that while the second round of tariffs is not in guidance due to uncertainty, the company is actively deploying its multi-faceted mitigation strategy, which includes supplier negotiations, product specification changes, and leveraging multi-price flexibility. He noted that new price points are a tool being used to manage the broader inflationary environment, not just tariffs.

Edward Kelly inquired about the sales softness observed in November, asking if trends have improved post-Thanksgiving and how much optimism is factored into the Q4 forecast, particularly for seasonal products.

Answer

Interim CEO Mike Creedon explained that customers are buying closer to need, which caused a slow start to November but led to a surge in Thanksgiving-related sales late in the month. He expressed confidence in the Q4 forecast, noting that while there are fewer shopping days, the mid-week Christmas holiday helps, and the holiday assortment is performing well.

Edward Kelly questioned whether the recent weakness at Dollar Tree is purely due to macro pressures or if there is consumer pushback on the multi-price point strategy. He also asked for an update on the company's confidence in finding a value-accretive resolution for the Family Dollar business through its strategic review.

Answer

COO Mike Creedon expressed high confidence in the multi-price strategy, citing positive customer surveys, strong traffic growth in converted stores, and favorable associate feedback. CFO Jeff Davis added that Dollar Tree is maintaining market share and attracting new customers despite spending contraction. Regarding Family Dollar, Davis noted positive proof points, including improving discretionary trends, cycling SNAP headwinds, and better shrink results.

Edward Kelly questioned whether the recent weakness at Dollar Tree was due to macro pressures or consumer pushback on the multi-price strategy, and asked for an update on the potential for the Family Dollar strategic review to create shareholder value.

Answer

COO Mike Creedon expressed high confidence in the multi-price strategy, citing strong comp performance in converted stores, positive customer feedback, and traffic growth. CFO Jeff Davis added that the company is maintaining market share despite lapping strong customer gains. Regarding Family Dollar, Davis noted improving discretionary trends and shrink results, and stated the strategic review is progressing well with a commitment to update shareholders upon its conclusion.

Edward Kelly asked for more details on the fourth-quarter comp expectation, including quarter-to-date performance and stabilization of the two-year comp. He also sought elaboration on the encouraging early results of the Sprouts Rewards loyalty program and its anticipated contribution in 2026.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine reported Q4 quarter-to-date comp just north of 1%, against a 13%+ comp last year, noting some stabilization in the two-year comp over the past 6-8 weeks. CEO Jack Sinclair and President and COO Nick Konat expressed encouragement with customer sign-ups and scanning for the loyalty program, observing increased shopping frequency and sales per customer in early rollout geographies, anticipating significant opportunities in 2026 for personalization.

Edward Kelly asked for more details on Sprouts' fourth-quarter comp expectation, including quarter-to-date performance and any stabilization in the two-year comp for October, and the assumptions behind the comp guidance. He also inquired about the loyalty program, what was encouraging about early results, and how it would be utilized to drive contribution in 2026.

Answer

Curtis Valentine, Chief Financial Officer, reported quarter-to-date comps just north of 1% against a 13%+ comp last October, with the two-year comp stabilizing over the last 6-8 weeks. He expressed caution due to week-to-week volatility and upcoming high comps in November and December. Jack Sinclair, Chief Executive Officer, highlighted encouragement from customer sign-ups and scanning for the loyalty program, which fully launched this week. He sees a significant opportunity in 2026 for targeted and efficient sales through personalization. Nick Konat, President and Chief Operating Officer, added that the program is already moving customer behavior with increased frequency and stronger sales per customer, and the team will now focus on maximizing its impact.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked about the drivers behind the Q2 comp sales acceleration in May and June, trends seen in July, and the sustainability of this momentum. He also questioned the gross margin outlook, considering the rollout of meat/seafood self-distribution and the new loyalty program.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine attributed the Q2 comp acceleration to a strong organic produce season and some benefit from industry supply chain disruptions. He noted that trends have normalized in July, supporting the Q3 guidance. CEO Jack Sinclair stated that while self-distribution will have long-term margin benefits, it won't be a major factor this year due to transition costs. He also confirmed that loyalty program costs are factored into forecasts.

Edward Kelly inquired about the cadence of comparable sales momentum during the quarter and whether any consumer behavioral changes, such as trading down, were observed. He also asked for more color on the benefits of self-distribution for meat and seafood and if there were opportunities to expand this to other categories.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine stated the comp cadence was steady, with February slightly stronger due to temporary factors, but no significant behavioral changes were seen. CEO Jack Sinclair added that, surprisingly, shifts in consumer confidence have not impacted behavior. Regarding self-distribution, Sinclair and President/COO Nick Konat explained the goal is to improve freshness, in-stocks, and profitability, with financial benefits expected next year. While other categories are a future possibility, the current focus is executing the meat and seafood transition.

Edward Kelly questioned if the Q1 gross margin guidance was conservative based on historical patterns and asked about the sustainability of recent improvements in shrink.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine explained that historical gross margin seasonality has muted as the company's pricing and promotional strategy became more consistent year-round. He clarified that the majority of the shrink improvement is sustainable, stemming from durable process and inventory management enhancements rather than temporary factors.

Edward Kelly inquired about the long-term sustainability of the 10% unit growth goal and the company's strategy regarding store density versus entering new markets, including managing cannibalization.

Answer

CFO Curtis Valentine expressed confidence in reaching high single-digit growth and is working on processes to get back to 10%, noting it's a focus for the next 5-7 years. CEO Jack Sinclair highlighted untapped potential in major markets like Chicago and Boston. He also stated that the company's cannibalization modeling has improved significantly, allowing for smarter decisions on both infill and new market entry.

Edward Kelly inquired about total case volumes, specifically the performance of non-local (national) business by customer type, and whether the anticipated 100 basis point improvement in Q2 local volumes aligns with September and October trends. He also asked about the expected pickup in national accounts and the future trajectory of the total local volume spread.

Answer

Kevin Hourican, Chair and CEO of Sysco, clarified that Q1 saw sequential improvement each month, with October stronger than September, fueling confidence in at least a 100 basis point improvement in Q2. For national sales, he noted a customer retention rate greater than 98%, strong performance in non-commercial segments (food service management, travel, hospitality, government), and pressure on large national chain restaurants. He emphasized that national restaurants are the least profitable, making a shift to local growth a net positive. Kenny Cheung, CFO, reiterated Sysco's consistent monthly improvement and projected a sequential step-up in local volume for the full year, expecting it to be positive.

Edward Kelly inquired about total case volumes versus local, what Sysco is observing outside of local business by customer type, and if the anticipated 100 basis point improvement in local volumes for Q2 reflects September and October trends. He also asked about national account pickup and the future total-local spread.

Answer

Kevin Hourican, Chair and CEO, stated that Q1 saw sequential monthly improvement, with October stronger than September, driven by internal initiatives. He confirmed the Q2 100 basis point improvement is fueled by current performance. For national sales, he noted high customer retention, strong performance in non-commercial segments, and pressure on large national chain restaurants. He clarified that national and local are expected to grow similarly for FY26, with local growing faster long-term. Kenny Cheung, CFO, reiterated Sysco's consistent local growth improvement and expectation for positive full-year local volume.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo asked about the potential risk from sales force non-competes expiring and the drivers behind the U.S. cost-per-case growth, which appeared to be up about 5% in the quarter.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican downplayed the risk from expiring non-competes, stating that most customer loss occurs immediately after a rep's departure and that new service improvements will more than offset any minor 'ripple effect'. CFO Kenny Cheung clarified that the cost-per-case increase was driven by planned SG&A investments in sales headcount and new building capacity, which will gain leverage as volumes grow.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo probed deeper into the salesforce opportunity, asking about the potential for a 300-500 basis point improvement in local case volume and whether other issues, like pricing tool friction or customer loss, could hinder this.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican acknowledged the need to 'prove it through our outcomes' but expressed confidence in a fiscal 2026 tailwind from stabilized salesforce retention and new hire productivity. He noted the necessary but challenging compensation model change caused the FY25 headwind. He also highlighted that higher industry-wide customer churn and the need for pricing agility are key factors, stating the rollout of a new pricing tool is being managed carefully to maintain margin discipline.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo asked for an update on the sales force, seeking clarity on what it means for the 'sales comp issue to be behind' the company. He also questioned if the large growth gap between the local and national businesses is sustainable for achieving long-term goals.

Answer

CEO Kevin Hourican clarified that sales force retention stabilized in Q2 after some disruption in Q1 following the compensation model change, and reps are now earning more. CFO Kenny Cheung stated that growing both the local and national segments is essential. He highlighted that the national business is highly profitable and provides critical route density and fixed cost coverage that benefits the local business, making the two complementary.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo sought more detail on the 'measured pace' of sales hires for fiscal 2025, asking if initial turnover issues would affect the company's ability to meet its hiring targets for this year or next.

Answer

CFO Kenny Cheung affirmed Sysco's commitment to growing its local sales headcount but stressed a disciplined approach to pacing based on market conditions to ensure P&L leverage. CEO Kevin Hourican added that the company is committed to its hiring target and is having no difficulty attracting high-quality candidates from competitors and the industry, ensuring they can proceed responsibly without compromising financial goals.

Edward Kelly inquired about the secular growth tailwind in the natural/organic segment, asking if an 'air pocket' of slower growth is expected due to recent acceleration and if mid-single-digit growth is still a long-term expectation. He also asked about conventional players' increasing push into natural product offerings, underlying demand trends, and the incremental margin impact for UNFI.

Answer

CEO Sandy Douglas affirmed that mid-single-digit growth is roughly what UNFI expects for the industry long-term, viewing it as an enduring trend driven by mindful eating and wellness. He noted that UNFI's business serves both natural-positioned retailers and conventional retailers growing their natural business. He explained that conventional retailers' adoption of natural products varies widely based on their positioning and strategy, but natural and organic products are an important component of any retailer's assortment. He emphasized UNFI's role in helping customers succeed by meeting them where they are with their strategy.

Edward Kelly asked about the secular growth tailwind in the natural/organic segment, questioning if the industry is entering an 'air pocket' due to tough comparisons from last year's acceleration, and if mid-single-digit growth is still expected long-term. He also inquired about conventional players' increasing desire to expand natural product offerings and the underlying demand trends from this customer base.

Answer

CEO Sandy Douglas affirmed that mid-single-digit growth is expected for the industry long-term, viewing the trend as enduring due to increased mindful eating and wellness. He clarified that UNFI's business serves both natural-positioned and conventional retailers growing their natural business. He noted that conventional retailers' focus on natural products varies by their positioning and strategy, but it remains an important component of any retailer's assortment, with UNFI aiming to help all customers succeed.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo asked if any specific factors made UNFI more susceptible to the cyberattack and how the incident might impact future capital expenditures on technology. He also inquired about the potential cost impact of mitigation efforts.

Answer

CEO Sandy Douglas stated that while UNFI has significant investments in cybersecurity, the incident highlights the dynamic nature of threats. He confirmed the company will continue to bolster defenses and prioritize cyber investment but does not expect it to change the overall capital allocation picture. He acknowledged there will be elevated costs from the incident response but said it is too early to quantify them.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo & Company sought clarity on the fiscal 2025 EBITDA growth trajectory and inquired about trends in vendor promotions and their impact on volumes and the P&L.

Answer

CEO Sandy Douglas clarified that FY25 high single-digit EBITDA growth is expected to build through the year, starting at mid-single digits in Q1. He also noted that while promotions are returning, they remain below pre-pandemic levels, and a new supplier program is simplifying fees to drive more effective spending.

Edward Kelly asked about the higher-than-expected LIFO charge in Q2, its implications for the second half of the year, and whether it suggests a full-year impact of approximately $0.10 per share. He also questioned why the free cash flow guidance was not raised despite a $100 million increase in EBIT, considering potential offsets like LIFO and benefits from the 'big beautiful bill'.

Answer

David Kennerley, EVP & CFO, explained the LIFO charge reflected a reset of accruals on a year-to-date basis due to inflation trending towards the midpoint of the expected range, including a catch-up from Q1 and ongoing extrapolation. He clarified that the Q2 charge was not entirely incremental for the rest of the year. Regarding free cash flow, Mr. Kennerley cited unchanged EPS guidance, consumer uncertainty, pharmacy mix, and strategic investments back into the business for long-term ROIC as reasons for not adjusting the guidance.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo inquired about Kroger's strategy for improving its price perception and value proposition, and whether these investments could be executed on a margin-neutral basis. He also asked for more details on the roadmap to improve e-commerce profitability.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent stated that the competitive pricing environment is rational and Kroger will continue investing in lower prices and simpler promotions, noting these efforts improved sales and gross margin in Q1. EVP & CFO David Kennerly added that the goal is to make savings easier for customers to access and to manage price investments on a margin-neutral basis. Regarding e-commerce, Mr. Sargent confirmed the business is not yet profitable but is seeing accelerating profit improvement and strong sales growth under a new unified leadership structure.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo inquired about Kroger's strategy to improve its price perception and value proposition, and whether this could be achieved on a margin-neutral basis. He also asked for more details on the roadmap to enhance e-commerce profitability.

Answer

Interim CEO & Chairman Ronald Sargent confirmed a rational pricing environment and continued investment in lower prices, noting Q1 was more competitive than Q4. EVP & CFO David Kennerly added that the goal is to make these pricing improvements on a margin-neutral basis. Regarding e-commerce, Mr. Sargent highlighted that while sales grew 15% and profitability is improving, the segment is not yet profitable and achieving this is a key focus under a newly consolidated leadership structure.

Edward Kelly asked for clarification on the share repurchase amount included in the 2025 guidance and about the company's exposure to potential cuts in SNAP benefits. He also asked Interim CEO Ron Sargent if he agrees with the strategy of not operating below the target leverage ratio.

Answer

Interim CEO Ronald Sargent deferred the question. Interim CFO Todd Foley confirmed the guidance includes completing the current ASR and using the majority of the remaining $2.5 billion authorization. Regarding SNAP, he noted that customers typically prioritize food spending after cuts and that Kroger's model is flexible enough to absorb such impacts. He also mentioned the current leverage ratio of 1.79x provides flexibility.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo & Company asked about the gross margin outlook for Q4 and beyond, excluding the specialty pharma divestiture, and the key drivers. He also questioned Kroger's strategic position and plans if the Albertsons merger is ultimately rejected by regulators.

Answer

Interim CFO Todd Foley stated that excluding the divestiture, Q4 gross margin is expected to be relatively flat year-over-year, with Q3's strength coming from 'Our Brands' growth and lower shrink. Chairman and CEO Rodney McMullen added that if the merger fails, Kroger would not seek another transformational deal of that scale. He emphasized the company operates from a position of strength with a strong balance sheet and would continue to pursue growth, including smaller M&A, without being forced to chase a deal.

Edward Kelly inquired about the current competitive and promotional landscape and Kroger's strategic plans for the second half of the year, given the updated gross margin guidance.

Answer

CEO Rodney McMullen stated that promotions are returning to pre-pandemic norms and are proving more effective, supported by CPG partners aiming to grow tonnage. He affirmed confidence in balancing cost reductions, favorable product mix, and continued price investments throughout the remainder of the year.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo & Company sought to clarify the components of the strong gross margin result, particularly the tailwind beyond shrink, and asked if the company is experiencing increased higher liability claims.

Answer

EVP & CFO Kelly Dilts clarified that of the 137 basis point gross margin improvement, 108 basis points came from lower shrink, with the remaining 29 basis points from all other factors combined, including markups and damages. Regarding liability, she acknowledged a trend toward more expensive claims but stated the impact is not material and has been factored into the company's guidance.

Edward Kelly questioned the rationale for modeling a gross margin decline in the second half after a strong Q2, the potential impact of tariffs, and the current mix of closeout product versus product made specifically for Ollie's.

Answer

EVP and CFO Robert Helm explained the back-half gross margin guidance reflects a conservative 'under promise, over deliver' approach and a difficult comparison against a strong Q4 last year. President and CEO Eric van der Valk stated they will navigate tariffs by maintaining price gaps, even if it means substituting products. He clarified that the closeout/import mix hasn't materially changed and they are not pursuing contracted manufacturing, as deal flow is more than sufficient.

Edward Kelly asked about the impact of the full-time/part-time workforce changes and whether the SG&A leverage point had shifted. He also inquired about the competitive landscape concerning Big Lots' go-forward strategy.

Answer

CEO-elect Eric van der Valk explained they are testing a 50/50 labor mix and new leadership structure, aiming for it to be expense-neutral. He clarified that due to business investments, the SG&A leverage point is now closer to a 2% comp, up from 1%. Regarding competition, he stated Ollie's is focused on its own execution and is confident in its ability to capture market share.

Edward Kelly inquired about the quantitative impact of product mix on Q2 gross margin, the drivers for reaffirming the full-year 40% margin target, and the company's confidence in its back-half comp guidance given the looming competitor liquidations.

Answer

CEO John Swygert expressed confidence in achieving the full-year 40% gross margin target, noting the business mix changes favorably in Q3 and Q4. CFO Robert Helm clarified that the Q2 margin shortfall versus plan was entirely due to a mix shift toward lower-margin air conditioners and consumables. Executive Vice President and COO Eric van der Valk described the competitor liquidation impact as 'unprecedented' and difficult to quantify but framed it as a 'short-term pain for a long-term gain.'

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo & Company requested a more detailed mapping of the Q2 comp outlook against tough compares and the new Army event, and asked about the quality of the inventory pipeline, particularly for the holiday season.

Answer

CFO Robert Helm reiterated that Q2 is tracking to the low end of the 1-2% comp range, with the new event expected to be slightly accretive for its week. CEO Eric van der Valk stated the inventory pipeline is very strong across categories, and for the holidays, they feel confident in their toy category positioning despite tariffs by being selective and buying into other gift-related categories.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo questioned the wide range for the back-half comp guidance, asking what factors would drive results to the high versus low end and where sales are currently trending. He also sought clarification on the commentary about likely second-half investments and their potential impact on gross margin.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy stated that the wide guidance range was prudent given the uncertain macro environment but affirmed confidence in gaining market share as the club model's relevance increases. CFO Laura Felice clarified that potential investments would be in price and value to support members and the long-term health of the business, impacting gross margin. Mr. Eddy added that despite these planned investments, the company raised its full-year EPS guidance, signaling confidence and a commitment to an aggressive, value-focused strategy similar to their successful 2022 playbook.

Edward Kelly asked for more details on the comparable sales cadence during the fourth quarter and the company's outlook for fiscal 2025, including trends seen so far in Q1 and how macroeconomic variables are being factored into the forecast.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy reported that the comp cadence was strong throughout Q4, with January being the strongest month, and noted that positive traffic momentum has continued into Q1, albeit with some consumer sensitivity in discretionary categories. CFO Laura Felice added that for the full year, the first half is expected to have slightly stronger comp growth than the second half.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo Securities questioned the timing and rationale for the membership fee increase, seeking details on first-year member retention trends and the overall momentum of new member growth.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy described membership momentum as the company's 'biggest unlock,' highlighting that first-year renewal rates are at all-time highs. He justified the fee increase by citing seven years of significant investments in member value, wages, and digital features, stating the proceeds will be reinvested to maintain momentum with minimal expected disruption to renewals.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo Securities questioned the timing of the membership fee increase and sought more detail on the underlying health of member growth, including trends in first-year retention rates and acquisition-related discounting.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Bob Eddy stated he is "really bullish" on membership momentum, noting that first-year renewal rates are at all-time highs. He justified the fee increase by highlighting the significant value added to the membership over the past seven years. Eddy explained the increase will fund further investments in labor and value propositions, expressing confidence that the current strength in member behavior will minimize any negative impact on renewal rates.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo questioned the wide back-half comp guidance range, asking what factors would drive performance to the high versus low end and where trends are running currently. He also asked for details on the "likely" second-half investment and its potential impact on gross margin.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy acknowledged the wide guidance range was a prudent choice given market uncertainty and tougher comps, but expressed confidence in the company's ability to gain share. EVP & CFO Laura Felice clarified that the potential investments would be in price and value to support members, impacting merchandise margins. Eddy added that despite planned investments, the company raised its full-year EPS guidance, signaling confidence in the bottom line.

Edward Kelly asked about the impact of tariffs, questioning if the current guidance includes an estimate of their effect and how the company is managing pricing, elasticities, and inventory to mitigate risks.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy confirmed that guidance includes a range of scenarios for tariffs but acknowledged the situation is highly uncertain. He stated that BJ's imports less than many competitors and is using tactics like resourcing and collaborating with suppliers to blunt the impact. Eddy emphasized a commitment to investing for the long term to gain market share during disruption, even if it pressures margins. He also noted inventory is in excellent shape, down 2% per club with improved in-stocks.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked about the impact of tariffs, questioning what is assumed in the current guidance and how the company is managing pricing, elasticities, and inventory to mitigate risks.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy stated that while BJ's imports less than many competitors, the company is actively managing the issue through resourcing, assortment changes, and supplier collaboration. He confirmed that guidance includes a range of scenarios but emphasized the strategy is to invest for the long-term to gain market share during disruption, all while keeping inventory lean.

Edward Kelly questioned the impact of tariffs, asking if they are factored into guidance, how the company is thinking about pricing and elasticities, and how it is managing inventory to mitigate risk.

Answer

CEO Bob Eddy confirmed that a range of scenarios, including tariffs, is embedded in the guidance. He explained that BJ's imports less than competitors and is using tactics like resourcing and collaborating with suppliers to blunt the impact. He stressed they will invest to gain market share and that inventory is in excellent shape, down 2% per club with improved in-stocks.

Edward Kelly sought clarity on the impact of tariffs, asking what is assumed in guidance and how the company is managing pricing, elasticities, and inventory.

Answer

Chairman and CEO Bob Eddy confirmed that guidance includes a range of scenarios for potential tariff impacts. He noted BJ's imports less than many competitors and is actively mitigating effects through resourcing and supplier collaboration. He stressed that the company will invest for the long term to gain market share in a disrupted environment, prioritizing member value. Inventory is well-managed, down 2% per club with improved in-stocks.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo Securities inquired about the comparable sales cadence during the fourth quarter and the company's outlook for fiscal 2025, including early Q1 trends and how macroeconomic uncertainties are being factored into the forecast.

Answer

CEO Robert Eddy stated that Q4 comp cadence was strong, with January being the strongest month, and noted that traffic momentum has continued into Q1, albeit with some consumer sensitivity in discretionary categories. CFO Laura Felice added that for fiscal 2025, the company anticipates a stronger first half compared to the second half, supported by positive traffic trends.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo & Company asked for more color on comparable sales momentum, specifically regarding back-to-school performance, and inquired about the potential timing for a return to positive comps.

Answer

Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke reported that Target is encouraged by the start to the back-to-school and back-to-college seasons. He noted a strong guest response, particularly in back-to-college, where the company successfully addressed last year's fashion assortment gaps with improved trend and style leadership, which customers are now embracing.

Edward Kelly sought clarification on the full-year guidance, asking if it fully incorporates a 30% tariff on Chinese goods, if offsets can be achieved without significant price increases, and about the confidence level in the guidance given potential elasticity risks.

Answer

CEO Brian Cornell confirmed that current tariff rate scenarios are factored into the guidance, and the company has taken a 'very conservative approach' to its planning. CFO Jim Lee added that the wide adjusted EPS range of $7 to $9 is intended to reflect uncertainties from both consumer behavior and potential tariff impacts, stating they are comfortable they can mitigate the 'vast majority' of those impacts across various outcomes.

Edward Kelly sought to clarify the assumptions within the updated guidance, specifically asking if the $7 to $9 adjusted EPS range fully incorporates a 30% tariff on Chinese goods and if management is confident this can be offset without significant price increases.

Answer

CEO Brian Cornell and CFO Jim Lee confirmed the guidance reflects current tariff rate scenarios. Cornell stated they have taken a 'very conservative approach' to planning for inventory, pricing, and promotions. Lee added that the wide guidance range of $7 to $9 is intended to account for uncertainty around both consumer behavior and potential tariff impacts, and reiterated confidence in their ability to 'mitigate the vast majority' of those impacts.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked for a high-level perspective on food service industry volatility and whether PFG's confidence stems from its own execution. He also inquired about the size of new customer wins in the Convenience segment and the expected cadence of EBITDA growth, given associated start-up costs.

Answer

CEO George Holm stated that while industry trends are improving, they remain negative, and PFG's confidence is rooted in its own ability to execute and win share, not a reliance on a market rebound. For the Convenience segment, COO Scott McPherson confirmed new customer onboarding in Q2 and Q3 would involve start-up costs, likely moderating Q2 profits before normalizing in the second half of the fiscal year. He did not quantify the size of the wins but expressed confidence in the segment's performance.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked about the sustainability of the strong organic independent case growth seen in April and early May, and whether the downward revision to Q4 guidance was primarily due to conservatism. He also inquired about SG&A expenses relative to expectations.

Answer

CEO George Holm expressed caution regarding the macro environment but confirmed recent record sales weeks, driven by new business wins that offset weakness in casual dining. COO Scott McPherson highlighted significant new wins in the Convenience segment. Regarding expenses, George Holm explained that February was a difficult month and that the company is intentionally investing in growing its sales force by 8%, which impacts short-term SG&A costs but is viewed as a crucial long-term investment.

Edward Kelly inquired about the underlying organic EBITDA growth for the Foodservice business, excluding recent acquisitions, and sought color on management's confidence in achieving 6% independent organic case growth for the full year. He also asked about the impact of inventory holding gains in Q2.

Answer

CEO George Holm stated that underlying EBITDA growth was near double-digits and confirmed that achieving the full-year target would require 7-8% growth in the second half, for which they see positive signs but would need some help from the macro environment. CFO Patrick Hatcher acknowledged a modest, manageable benefit from inventory holding gains in Q2 but expects a minimal impact for the full fiscal year.

Edward Kelly questioned PFG's ability to grow EBITDA in its Convenience business despite declining case volumes and asked about the outlook for returning to the 6-10% organic independent case volume growth target.

Answer

CEO George Holm attributed the Convenience segment's EBITDA growth to a favorable mix shift toward higher-margin foodservice products, which has offset volume declines. He expects future profit growth to be driven more by sales than expense efficiencies. Regarding the independent growth target, Holm expressed high confidence in reaching the 6-10% range for the full year, noting that while it will be more back-end loaded than the prior year, recent momentum is strong.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked for an assessment of the soft foodservice industry, questioning if it's purely macro-driven and if it impacts the company's ability to achieve its long-term case volume targets. He also inquired about the sequential slowdown in Healthcare and Hospitality growth and the outlook for those segments.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman described the industry as 'soft but stable,' attributing it to macro pressures on the consumer. He expressed confidence in hitting long-range targets but noted the 5-8% independent growth goal was based on historical traffic trends that are not currently present. For Healthcare and Hospitality, he stated the new business pipeline remains strong, with the company continuing to gain share in healthcare and strategically shifting focus within hospitality to offset lodging softness.

Edward Kelly asked about US Foods' ability to deliver EBITDA growth within its guidance despite a challenging Q1 and what factors define the high and low ends of the full-year outlook. He also inquired about the underlying momentum in independent restaurant cases, specifically how April and May were trending against the new 2% to 5% annual goal.

Answer

CEO Dave Flitman and CFO Dirk Locascio affirmed their confidence in the full-year guidance, attributing their Q1 performance to strong execution of 'self-help' initiatives at the gross margin and operating expense levels. Flitman noted that independent case growth momentum was strong in late March and April, tracking within the new 2% to 5% range, and is expected to strengthen further, driven by the highest net new account generation of the year in April.

Edward Kelly from Wells Fargo asked for more detail on the independent case growth outlook, the bridge to the long-term target, and the expected cadence for 2025. He also inquired about the scale of the 'self-help' opportunity in 2025 compared to 2024.

Answer

CEO David Flitman clarified that the long-term 5-8% case growth target assumes a +2% foot traffic environment, which was absent in 2024. He expressed confidence in the 2025 guidance based on strong share gains and momentum from self-help initiatives in gross profit and supply chain productivity. CFO Dirk Locascio added that strong growth in the healthcare and hospitality segments also provides a solid base for achieving overall targets.

Edward Kelly asked how the quarter's strong EBIT growth on softer volume informs the outlook for gross profit and OpEx per case in 2025, and also questioned the future cadence of the share repurchase program.

Answer

CEO David Flitman expressed confidence that strong execution on GP and OpEx per case will continue, as many initiatives are in their "early innings." Regarding capital allocation, he confirmed the plan to lean into buybacks while shares are undervalued and toggle with M&A, noting the $4 billion capital deployment plan is for the 2025-2027 period.

Edward Kelly asked for an update on price investment goals and the momentum of cross-shopping between the strong pharmacy business and the core grocery segment.

Answer

CEO Susan Morris described the price investments as a surgical, data-driven, and iterative process focused on the total value proposition, including loyalty and own brands, which has already yielded sequential unit improvements. She noted that while cross-shopping takes time to build, these customers are highly valuable, and the core grocery business did see positive growth in Q1, exclusive of pharmacy.

Asked for an update on price investment goals, the momentum of pharmacy-grocery cross-shopping, and the long-term relationship between price investments, productivity, and gross margin stability.

Answer

Price investments are described as a surgical and iterative part of a total value proposition, which has led to sequential unit improvements. Productivity initiatives, particularly national buying, are expected to provide a tailwind to gross margin in the second half of the year. While cross-shopping takes time to build, these customers are highly valuable, and the company saw positive grocery growth in Q1 exclusive of pharmacy.

Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo requested additional details on the key investment areas planned for fiscal 2025, the scale of these investments, and the anticipated cadence of EBITDA performance throughout the year.

Answer

CEO-elect Susan Morris outlined multifaceted investments in surgical pricing, digital and loyalty growth, and pharmacy. President and CFO Sharon McCollam added that investments in the media collective and health platforms are key. They both indicated that investments would be made throughout the year, with benefits and stronger growth expected in the second half, building towards the long-term algorithm in fiscal 2026.

Edward Kelly asked about the timing of investments relative to the realization of productivity savings, expressing investor concern about a potential near-term mismatch. He also asked how quickly initiatives like retail media and central buying could become meaningful contributors.

Answer

President and CFO Sharon McCollam deferred detailed guidance on the cadence of productivity and investments to the April earnings call. CEO Vivek Sankaran reassured that core business investments were never throttled and that the ramp-up speed of new initiatives varies, with some moving quickly and others requiring more caution, but a steady drumbeat of productivity is expected.

Edward Kelly asked about Walmart's inventory planning strategy amid tariff uncertainty and whether there is a risk of repeating the inventory challenges seen in 2022.

Answer

CEO Doug McMillon emphasized that a key strength is the high volume of replenishable items, which allows for flexible adjustments with suppliers. For seasonal goods, the team makes quantity decisions based on the best available tariff information. He explicitly stated that the company is focused on avoiding a repeat of the 2022 inventory situation by paying close attention to unit decisions.

Edward Kelly asked about the long-term trajectory for e-commerce profitability and whether immigration has had a noticeable impact on the business.

Answer

CEO Doug McMillon explained that the 'second P&L,' which includes e-commerce and related high-margin businesses like advertising and membership, is proving to be more profitable than the traditional store P&L, lifting the company's overall operating income. He also stated that immigration has been a 'nonevent' for the business so far.