Elizabeth Dove

Elizabeth Dove inquired if Hyatt's 6%-7% rooms growth guidance is entirely organic, considering the company's openness to portfolio deals. She also asked about the potential long-term contribution and scale of newer brands like Hyatt Select and Unscripted by Hyatt.

Answer

Mark Hoplamazian, President and CEO, confirmed that the 6%-7% rooms growth is indeed organic, encompassing the growth of existing brands, including those designed for conversions. He clarified that larger portfolio deals, which involve management platforms or a significant number of hotels, are distinct from this organic growth. He highlighted that 50% of Hyatt's pipeline or openings are in new markets, demonstrating the effectiveness of their growth strategy. Joan Bottarini, CFO, reiterated that the strategy is reflected in the data.

Elizabeth Dove sought clarification on whether Hyatt's 6%-7% rooms growth outlook is entirely organic, and inquired about the potential long-term contribution and scale of newer brands such as Hyatt Select and Unscripted by Hyatt.

Answer

President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian confirmed that the 6%-7% rooms growth outlook is indeed the organic growth number, which includes conversion brands. He clarified that while mini-portfolio deals (like Wink Hotels joining Unscripted) are treated as regular development, larger portfolio deals with more infrastructure are separate. He emphasized that 50% of the pipeline or openings are in new markets, demonstrating the strategy to expand reach.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. asked what gives Viking confidence in its ability to fill its significant long-term capacity growth at attractive prices, particularly given growing competition in the river cruise market. She also followed up on a previous question about capital allocation, asking if M&A could be a potential use of cash.

Answer

Torstein Hagen, Founder, Chairman & CEO, expressed little concern about competition, highlighting protective moats like controlling 110 prime docking locations and stating the bigger concern is having enough capacity. Leah Talactac, President & CFO, addressed M&A by stating that any acquisition must be scalable, margin-accretive, and complementary to the brand. Hagen added that management has an "owner's mentality" and would only pursue a deal that clearly benefits shareholders.

Elizabeth Dove of Goldman Sachs inquired about Hilton's appetite for future inorganic growth via partnerships or acquisitions, and if the 6-7% net unit growth guidance includes such deals.

Answer

President and CEO Christopher Nassetta clarified that the 6-7% net unit growth guidance is based entirely on organic growth from existing and new internally developed brands. While pleased with recent deals like SLH, Nomad, and Graduate, he stated the company's primary focus is on organic brand building, not M&A, and investors should not assume future acquisitions are factored into the growth forecast.

Elizabeth Dove asked about the specific drivers behind the lowered full-year EBITDA outlook, questioning if there was pressure from Incentive Management Fees (IMF) or a slowdown in non-RevPAR fees, and if the long-term growth algorithm from Investor Day still holds.

Answer

CFO Kevin Jacobs clarified that the primary driver for the reduced EBITDA guidance is the lower RevPAR outlook, consistent with the company's typical sensitivity of $25-30 million per point of RevPAR. He stated that the fundamental drivers of the business model are unchanged and that non-RevPAR fees remain strong. He also noted that IMF growth is still expected to be positive for the year in the mid-single digits, even with the revised RevPAR forecast.

Elizabeth Dove pointed out the contrast between Hilton's strong EBITDA guidance and industry-wide concerns about cost pressures like insurance and wages, asking how Hilton is managing these costs.

Answer

Kevin Jacobs, CFO and President, Global Development, emphasized Hilton's disciplined approach, noting the company's GAAP G&A guidance is lower than in 2019 despite inflation. For owners facing cost pressures, he said Hilton continues to focus on finding operational efficiencies across wages, benefits, and insurance to help them protect their bottom lines.

Elizabeth Dove inquired about Hilton's international unit growth strategy, asking about key market opportunities, the outlook for China, and how the company adapts its brands for different global markets.

Answer

CFO Kevin Jacobs explained that brands are adapted to local markets (e.g., room size) while maintaining their core identity. He noted that over half the pipeline is international, and the China business is performing well, with growth in approvals, starts, and openings, partly driven by adaptive reuse projects. He also highlighted significant growth opportunities in APAC outside of China, particularly in India and the Middle East.

Elizabeth Dove asked for clarification on the expected Q2 pricing (RPD) trend in the Americas and sought confirmation of the full-year guidance for free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA, questioning the key assumptions behind the $1 billion EBITDA target.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ferraro explained that Q1 pricing was impacted by the Easter shift, but he expects the pricing exit rate in June to be strong, setting up a seasonally improved summer. CFO Izilda Martins clarified that the $1 billion EBITDA is a target they are striving for amid macro uncertainty, rather than a formal reiteration of guidance. If achieved, she anticipates adjusted free cash flow would be in the mid-$300M to $400M range, reflecting the company's ability to adapt its variable cost structure.

Elizabeth Dove questioned the competitive landscape in the Americas, noting lower volume trends, and sought confirmation on the company's long-term normalized EBITDA outlook.

Answer

CEO Joseph Ferraro clarified that the volume trend was a deliberate strategy to prioritize higher-margin business and improve utilization by forgoing low-priced, brand-agnostic rentals. CFO Izilda Martins reaffirmed the company's confidence in achieving over $1 billion in sustainable annual EBITDA, citing normalizing fleet costs, operational efficiencies, and disciplined fleet management as key drivers.

Elizabeth Dove asked for guidance on the cadence of Adjusted EBITDA for the remainder of the year, given the various timing shifts. She also inquired which specific parks are seen as having the greatest opportunities for attendance growth.

Answer

CFO Brian Witherow stated that the second and third quarters represent the biggest opportunity and are expected to generate 95% or more of full-year EBITDA, with Q2 having significant potential due to expanded operating days. He identified parks in underpenetrated markets as having the greatest attendance growth opportunities. He gave Six Flags Over Texas as an example where days are being added in June, and noted the company is looking for opportunities to add days in fast-growing markets.

Elizabeth Dove asked about potential calendar shift impacts in Q1 from Easter and other factors. She also requested clarification on the legacy Six Flags Q4 per capita spending, which appeared to be down, and whether that was an appropriate run rate.

Answer

CFO Brian Witherow confirmed there are no major fiscal calendar comparability issues in 2025 and noted a later Easter is typically a slight positive. Regarding per caps, he cautioned against using a small, seasonally light quarter as a run rate for the full year. He reiterated that while the volume-focused strategy may pressure admission per caps, the company still targets low-to-mid-single-digit price increases.

Elizabeth Dove asked for an update on plans to add back operating days at legacy Six Flags parks and sought clarification on the EBITDA impact from the net change in operating days in the fourth quarter.

Answer

CFO Brian Witherow confirmed legacy Six Flags had cut ~400 operating days versus pre-pandemic levels but said no final decision has been made on how many to add back, noting they will 'dribble some days back' responsibly. For Q4, he clarified the net impact is a reduction of 20-25 operating days on a combined basis, resulting from fewer days at legacy Cedar Fair partially offset by more days at legacy Six Flags.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs asked for a status update on Marriott's multiyear digital transformation, including the rollout timeline and expected benefits. She also inquired if the non-RevPAR residential branding fees were expected to rebound in 2026 after a timing-related decline this year.

Answer

CEO Tony Capuano reported 'terrific progress' on the digital transformation, with testing underway and a rollout to select-brand hotels planned for the second half of the year, expecting benefits in efficiency and merchandising. CFO Leeny Oberg confirmed she 'absolutely' expects residential fees to rebound, stating the decline is purely due to the timing of project completions and that the underlying business is growing well.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs asked for more detail on the expectation that international RevPAR growth will outperform the U.S. in 2025, seeking color on specific regions like the Middle East or Europe.

Answer

CFO Leeny Oberg explained that stronger international RevPAR is tied to factors like higher GDP growth in markets such as India, where Marriott's room growth is also in the double digits. She also pointed to strong cross-border travel, aided by a strong U.S. dollar, which has driven outstanding demand in regions like Europe and Japan.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs requested a pulse check on consumer ancillary spending and asked if renovation headwinds and residential branding fee timing would normalize in 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Tony Capuano noted that while food and beverage spend for meetings remains strong, there's a slight pullback in outlets and lounges, except in the luxury tier where spending was up 2%. CFO and EVP, Development Leeny Oberg stated that while specific hotel renovations will be complete, others will begin, and she does not expect these factors to meaningfully impact 2025 results.

Elizabeth Dove inquired about consumer behavior, asking if there has been any divergence in performance across different U.S. geographies or any signs of customers trading down between product tiers.

Answer

CEO Mark Wang stated that strong performance was broad-based and not concentrated in any single geography, citing robust results in Hawaii, New York, Orlando, and Texas, among others. He noted that while the lower-end new buyer cohort has stabilized but not improved, the company is maneuvering around this by tightening tour qualifications. He emphasized the continued strong performance of existing owners.

Elizabeth Dove of Autonomous Research asked for a more detailed breakdown of the revised U.S. RevPAR outlook, specifically how the components of infrastructure, leisure, and pricing power have changed from the previous forecast.

Answer

CEO Geoffrey Ballotti noted recent positive momentum, with RevPAR improving 400 basis points in the last week of April and May pacing in line with the revised outlook. He emphasized that pricing is holding firm. CFO Michele Allen added that the biggest disconnect from the initial guide was weaker-than-expected leisure demand, while weekday trends and pricing remain strong. She stated the low end of the U.S. outlook assumes a 3% decline for the rest of the year, consistent with March/April trends, while the high end assumes a rebound in consumer sentiment.

Elizabeth Dove pointed to the significant fee PAR premium in the development pipeline (30% U.S., 40% international) and asked how soon this benefit will flow through to financial results and to what extent it is factored into the current year's guidance.

Answer

CFO Michele Allen confirmed that the benefit from the higher fee PAR pipeline is already factored into the 2025 guidance. She explained that this strategy is a key component of the company's expected RevPAR outperformance, alongside the brand's distribution platform and the significant impact from infrastructure-related spending.

Elizabeth Dove inquired whether recent green shoots in the economy segment were being impacted by new competitor brands and asked if China's recent stimulus changes the company's outlook for that region.

Answer

CEO Geoffrey Ballotti attributed the economy segment's performance to cyclical factors and favorable comps, stating that new competitor brands have not slowed Wyndham's development pipeline or net room growth. CFO Michele Allen added that while China's stimulus doesn't change their outlook for continued recovery, it does make them more confident in achieving it.

Elizabeth Dove asked if there were any notable differences in booking patterns for the remaining 2025 and 2026 inventory across different itineraries, brands, or durations. She also inquired about the composition of the 2025 yield outlook, specifically the contribution from new ship premiums versus like-for-like pricing.

Answer

CEO Jason Liberty stated there were no material differences in booking behavior across markets or segments, though he noted a potential consumer shift toward their all-inclusive value proposition. CFO Naftali Holtz clarified that the yield growth contribution for the year is roughly split 50/50 between new hardware and like-for-like pricing, with the exception of Q3, where timing effects make like-for-like pricing the primary driver.

Elizabeth Dove asked for details on the recurring 'favorable timing of costs,' particularly in Q4, and questioned whether the long-term 'moderate yield growth' outlook fully incorporates the upside from new ships and private islands.

Answer

CFO Naftali Holtz explained that cost timing shifts this year are primarily due to supply chain impacts on an unusually high number of dry dock projects. CEO Jason Liberty clarified that the 'moderate yield growth' formula has a range; new hardware typically adds about one point, while new private destinations can push growth to the higher end of that range. He noted the outlook considers these factors against a backdrop of increasingly tough year-over-year comparisons.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs asked for an update on trends in the luxury segment, specifically for Seabourn and Cunard, and inquired about the progress and consumer reception of the new Celebration Key destination.

Answer

CEO Josh Weinstein stated there was nothing unusual to report in luxury, with both Seabourn and Cunard making 'great progress' year-over-year. He confirmed that Celebration Key is on track operationally and is already achieving the price premiums the company had expected, with everything proceeding as planned.

Elizabeth Dove of Goldman Sachs inquired about booking trends across NCLH's brands and geographies, and asked whether the strong 2024 cost savings represented a pull-forward of the company's $300 million target or if further upside remains.

Answer

President and CEO Harry Sommer described the booking pace as "steady as she goes," highlighting outperformance in Europe and Alaska, with luxury brands slightly slower. EVP and CFO Mark Kempa confirmed an acceleration of the $300 million efficiency program but noted that opportunities for savings continue into 2025 and 2026. Sommer stressed that these savings were achieved alongside record guest satisfaction scores, underscoring that the guest experience was not compromised.

Elizabeth Dove asked about the primary factors preventing attendance from returning to historical peak levels, such as those in 2008. She also sought clarity on how to reconcile capital allocation priorities, including a potential new buyback, real estate monetization, and rising cash taxes.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson identified the slow recovery of international visitation as a primary headwind, noting it remains down significantly from 2019 levels but represents a future tailwind. He also cited capturing more summer attendance as an opportunity. On capital allocation, Swanson discussed monetizing real estate through development or sale-leasebacks. CFO James Mikolaichik added that interest savings from a recent refinancing will help offset future cash tax increases, underscoring the company's strong free cash flow.

Elizabeth Dove from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. inquired about the company's 2025 capital allocation priorities, including potential new buybacks or dividends, and asked for a quantification of the Q4 EBITDA impact from recent hurricanes.

Answer

CEO Marc Swanson confirmed the board is actively considering all options for returning capital to shareholders but did not specify future plans. He estimated the EBITDA impact from Hurricane Milton in Q4 to be approximately $9 million to $10 million, noting the significant disruption to park operations, particularly in Tampa.

Elizabeth Dove inquired about potential cost pressures from the Epic Universe opening, specifically regarding labor wages and marketing spend in Orlando. She also asked about the slower pace of share buybacks in Q1 and the company's comfort level with its leverage for future capital allocation.

Answer

CFO James Mikolaichik stated that planned wage increases and competitive pressures are being managed effectively through strategic labor scheduling and marketing deployment. CEO Marc Swanson reiterated the Board's belief that the stock is materially undervalued and that an announcement on capital allocation is expected in the coming weeks. He added that the company is entering its peak cash-generating season, and CFO Mikolaichik highlighted that the share count is already down 14% year-over-year.

Elizabeth Dove questioned the drivers behind the VPG guidance, which implies a deceleration after Q1, and asked how meaningful Sports Illustrated sales might be in 2025.

Answer

President and CEO Michael Brown explained the VPG cadence is a function of business mix. Q1 is a high-VPG quarter due to more owner tours, while VPG naturally moderates mid-year as new-owner tour flow accelerates. Regarding Sports Illustrated, he stated that 2025 sales will not be meaningful to overall results, as the focus will be on launching the brand, gauging consumer acceptance, and refining the product, similar to the first year of the Accor business.

Elizabeth Dove requested quantification of the remaining excess depreciation after the impairment and asked about transaction day trends, questioning if increased competition was a factor in the decline.

Answer

CFO Scott Haralson suggested modeling the excess depreciation as the difference between the Q4 DPU forecast ($350-$375) and the sub-$300 run-rate target. Chief Commercial Officer Sandeep Dube stated the company is not giving 2025 guidance on transaction days and that there has been no fundamental change in the competitive landscape, with CEO Wayne West adding the focus is on producing the same days with a smaller, more utilized fleet.

Elizabeth Dove requested an update on the GPO network spend, its growth opportunities, and margin benefits. She also asked if the maturation of post-COVID net new business will still be a margin tailwind in fiscal 2025.

Answer

CEO John Zillmer highlighted the GPO network's continued growth as a key profitability driver, pointing to organic expansion and potential acquisitions. CFO Jim Tarangelo confirmed that the margin progression from the record new business won in recent years will continue to be a benefit in fiscal 2025, with a steady state expected by fiscal 2026.

Elizabeth Dove asked for a high-level outlook on 2025 EBITDA growth, considering the lapping of 2024 benefits, and inquired about competitive pressures in the extended-stay segment from new brand launches by competitors.

Answer

CEO Patrick Pacious highlighted three key future growth drivers: realizing the high-RevPAR pipeline, expanding international business, and growing ancillary revenues. Regarding extended-stay, he expressed confidence, stating that Choice's brands like WoodSpring Suites dominate new construction and are seeing increased interest due to their proven models.