Emerson Vieira

Emerson Vieira asked about the sustainability of Gerdau's U.S. profitability, specifically concerning scrap prices not recovering in line with rebar prices, and the outlook for scrap prices and metal spread stability in the second half of the year. He also inquired about the potential impact of anti-dumping measures related to steel exports from Vietnam and Algeria on Gerdau's U.S. operations, including any marginal share gains.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck stated that projecting U.S. scrap prices two to three quarters ahead is difficult, but the trend suggests more stable scrap prices due to semi-finished steel production from China, leading to stable metal spreads and confidence in North America's results for 2026. CFO Rafael Japur clarified that rebar is a feeder product, accounting for 10-15% of the business. He explained that increased rebar profitability for producers with modern assets might reduce their appetite for using scrap for merchant bars, leading to a secondary effect of improving merchant bar prices, rather than a direct impact from anti-dumping measures on Gerdau's rebar production.

Emerson Vieira asked about the sustainability of U.S. profitability levels, specifically regarding scrap prices and their recovery relative to rebar prices, and whether a more relevant increase in scrap prices is expected in the second half of 2026. He also inquired about the potential impact of anti-dumping measures on steel exports from Vietnam and Algeria on Gerdau's U.S. operations, particularly for marginal share gains.

Answer

CEO Gustavo Werneck stated that projecting U.S. scrap prices two to three quarters ahead is difficult, but he believes the global production of semi-finished steel (coal/iron ore based) will likely stabilize scrap prices, leading to stable metal spreads and thus stable North America results for 2026. CFO Rafael Japur added that rebar, while a feeder product and about 10-15% of their business, is not a significant portion. He explained that anti-dumping measures on rebar from Vietnam and Algeria might indirectly improve merchant bar prices by shifting other producers' focus, but it's not a direct, significant impact on Gerdau's rebar business itself.

Emerson Vieira asked for clarification on the expected decline in molybdenum production for 2026, despite the prioritization of the Buenavista zinc concentrator. He also sought an update on the concentrator expansion project, including expected investment timing, and details regarding the timing of Tia Maria's committed CapEx, specifically if the $800 million is skewed towards the second half of 2026, and the construction completion timeline for 2027 production.

Answer

Raul Jacob, Vice President, Finance, Treasurer, and CFO, attributed the molybdenum production decline to mining in areas with lower ore grades for both copper and molybdenum. For the concentrator expansion, he stated that the company is still preparing information for board submission and decision. Regarding Tia Maria, Mr. Jacob clarified that approximately $508 million in cash is forecasted to be disbursed in 2026, a reduction from prior guidance due to better payment terms, not project postponement. He confirmed construction is expected to finish by mid-2027, with 30,000 tons of copper production in the second half of 2027, reaching full capacity of 120,000 tons per year from 2028.

Emerson Vieira inquired about the reasons for the projected decline in molybdenum production for 2026, especially considering the prioritization of zinc production at the Buenavista concentrator. He also sought an update on the potential concentrator expansion, including expected investment timelines, and details on the timing of Tia Maria's committed CapEx, specifically if the $800 million is skewed towards the second half of 2026, and the construction completion schedule to meet the 2027 production target.

Answer

Raul Jacob, VP of Finance, Treasurer, and CFO, attributed the molybdenum production decline to mining in areas with lower ore grades for both copper and molybdenum. For the concentrator expansion, he stated that the company is still preparing information for board submission and decision. Regarding Tia Maria, Mr. Jacob clarified that while $800 million is committed, the cash outflow for 2026 is forecasted at $508 million due to better payment terms, not a project delay. He confirmed construction is expected to finish by the end of the first half of 2027, with 30,000 tons of production in the second half of 2027, reaching full capacity of 120,000 tons per year from 2028.

Emerson Vieira of Goldman Sachs requested an updated assessment of the portion of global lithium supply currently operating 'underwater' at prevailing prices. He also asked for an update on the company's CapEx forecast for 2026 and 2027.

Answer

Pablo Hernández Mac-Donald, VP of Strategy & Development, responded that SQM believes some competitors still have costs higher than current prices, suggesting long-term prices need to be higher. CFO Gerardo Illanes stated that a full CapEx plan review will be updated in the Q3 call, reminding that the vast majority of the previously guided ~$1 billion annual CapEx is for growth, with maintenance at ~$250 million per year.

Emerson Vieira of Goldman Sachs requested an updated view on the lithium cost curve and the percentage of supply currently underwater, as well as an update on the CapEx outlook for 2026-2027.

Answer

Pablo Hernández, VP of Strategy & Development, stated that some competitors' costs are still likely above current prices, suggesting long-term prices need to be higher. CFO Gerardo Illanes indicated that a full CapEx plan update for the coming years will be provided during the third quarter earnings call, reiterating that the vast majority of the previously guided ~$1B annual spend is for growth.

Emerson Vieira of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sought clarification on the $300 million cost reduction target, asking for the comparison baseline and whether it includes Usiminas. He also questioned the impact of lower Mexican imports on steel prices and the potential for further price hikes in Q3, and asked for more detail on Mexico's specific trade measures.

Answer

CEO Máximo Vedoya clarified the $300 million cost reduction target is for 2025 compared to 2024, excluding raw material price effects and not including Usiminas. He stated that Mexican steel prices might see a mild improvement but not a radical one. He elaborated that the trade measures involve closing loopholes for temporary imports and dumping, with the government enhancing its capacity to analyze new anti-dumping cases.

Emerson Vieira of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sought clarification on the $300 million cost reduction target, asking for its comparison basis and whether it included Usiminas. He also questioned if lower imports in Mexico would support further price increases and asked for more detail on the nature of Mexico's recent trade measures.

Answer

CEO Máximo Vedoya clarified that the $300 million cost reduction target is benchmarked against 2024 performance, excludes raw material effects, and does not include Usiminas, which has a separate plan. He anticipates only a 'mild improvement' in Mexican prices, with the primary benefit being market share gains. Vedoya described the trade measures as closing loopholes and enhancing anti-dumping case analysis rather than new quotas.